A rapidly intensifying El Niño event in 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event through fall and winter, serves as the primary driver behind the 95% market-implied probability for an August global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Long-term anthropogenic warming, reinforced by record ocean heat content, has already pushed recent years near or above this threshold, and the current ENSO phase adds substantial positive forcing consistent with NOAA and IRI model consensus. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS and NOAA will determine resolution, though realistic challenges include unexpected El Niño weakening, major volcanic cooling, or post-processing revisions in observational datasets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 95%
1.25–1.29ºC 4.5%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,838 Vol.
$13,838 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
5%
>1.29ºC
95%
>1.29ºC 95%
1.25–1.29ºC 4.5%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,838 Vol.
$13,838 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,077 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,513 Vol.
5%
>1.29ºC
$6,250 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño event in 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event through fall and winter, serves as the primary driver behind the 95% market-implied probability for an August global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Long-term anthropogenic warming, reinforced by record ocean heat content, has already pushed recent years near or above this threshold, and the current ENSO phase adds substantial positive forcing consistent with NOAA and IRI model consensus. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS and NOAA will determine resolution, though realistic challenges include unexpected El Niño weakening, major volcanic cooling, or post-processing revisions in observational datasets.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,838End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño event in 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event through fall and winter, serves as the primary driver behind the 95% market-implied probability for an August global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Long-term anthropogenic warming, reinforced by record ocean heat content, has already pushed recent years near or above this threshold, and the current ENSO phase adds substantial positive forcing consistent with NOAA and IRI model consensus. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS and NOAA will determine resolution, though realistic challenges include unexpected El Niño weakening, major volcanic cooling, or post-processing revisions in observational datasets.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$13,838End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño event in 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event through fall and winter, serves as the primary driver behind the 95% market-implied probability for an August global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Long-term anthropogenic warming, reinforced by record ocean heat content, has already pushed recent years near or above this threshold, and the current ENSO phase adds substantial positive forcing consistent with NOAA and IRI model consensus. Official monthly releases from agencies such as NASA GISS and NOAA will determine resolution, though realistic challenges include unexpected El Niño weakening, major volcanic cooling, or post-processing revisions in observational datasets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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