**USGS geophysical models and historical records establish that magnitude 10.0+ earthquakes cannot occur on Earth.** No known fault system provides the rupture length required—roughly 10,000+ km to release that energy under standard scaling laws—while the planet’s longest subduction zones top out near 1,000–2,000 km. The 1960 Valdivia event remains the recorded maximum at 9.5, and continuous global monitoring through 2026 has shown no stress accumulation or tectonic configuration approaching the physical threshold. Trader consensus at 99.2% “No” therefore rests on this hard upper bound rather than short-term forecasting. Only an undetected planetary-scale fault or an extraterrestrial impact could theoretically alter the outcome, both of which lack supporting observational data and fall far outside documented seismic behavior.