The constitutional barriers to repealing or amending the 22nd Amendment remain prohibitive, requiring two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states—a process that has never succeeded on this issue and faces steep hurdles in a divided 119th Congress during the 2026 midterm cycle. Recent statements from President Trump have reinforced this reality, with him acknowledging in 2026 that “the law is very strong” and explicitly declining to pursue efforts that would test the two-term limit. Limited legislative proposals, such as resolutions introduced in early 2025 to adjust term restrictions for nonconsecutive service, have not advanced to floor consideration or garnered broad bipartisan support. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for any amendment process before year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.8% implied probability for “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$12,999 Vol.
$12,999 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$12,999 Vol.
$12,999 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional barriers to repealing or amending the 22nd Amendment remain prohibitive, requiring two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states—a process that has never succeeded on this issue and faces steep hurdles in a divided 119th Congress during the 2026 midterm cycle. Recent statements from President Trump have reinforced this reality, with him acknowledging in 2026 that “the law is very strong” and explicitly declining to pursue efforts that would test the two-term limit. Limited legislative proposals, such as resolutions introduced in early 2025 to adjust term restrictions for nonconsecutive service, have not advanced to floor consideration or garnered broad bipartisan support. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for any amendment process before year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.8% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$12,999End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional barriers to repealing or amending the 22nd Amendment remain prohibitive, requiring two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states—a process that has never succeeded on this issue and faces steep hurdles in a divided 119th Congress during the 2026 midterm cycle. Recent statements from President Trump have reinforced this reality, with him acknowledging in 2026 that “the law is very strong” and explicitly declining to pursue efforts that would test the two-term limit. Limited legislative proposals, such as resolutions introduced in early 2025 to adjust term restrictions for nonconsecutive service, have not advanced to floor consideration or garnered broad bipartisan support. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for any amendment process before year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.8% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$12,999End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The constitutional barriers to repealing or amending the 22nd Amendment remain prohibitive, requiring two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states—a process that has never succeeded on this issue and faces steep hurdles in a divided 119th Congress during the 2026 midterm cycle. Recent statements from President Trump have reinforced this reality, with him acknowledging in 2026 that “the law is very strong” and explicitly declining to pursue efforts that would test the two-term limit. Limited legislative proposals, such as resolutions introduced in early 2025 to adjust term restrictions for nonconsecutive service, have not advanced to floor consideration or garnered broad bipartisan support. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 further reduce the window for any amendment process before year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.8% implied probability for “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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