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Politics·Coalition

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

icon for Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
Politics·Coalition

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls, including surveys from SCB, Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion through early August 2026, show the Tidö parties—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—collectively at roughly 45 percent support, below the 175 seats needed for a Riksdag majority. The opposing Red-Green bloc led by the Social Democrats holds a consistent lead near 53 percent. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences ahead of the September 13 election, with the incumbent government bloc down from its 2022 result and facing challenges in key areas such as crime, the economy, and migration policy. Trader consensus on an 80 percent probability for no majority aligns with these polling averages and the limited time remaining for shifts before voting.

In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$6,783
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls, including surveys from SCB, Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion through early August 2026, show the Tidö parties—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—collectively at roughly 45 percent support, below the 175 seats needed for a Riksdag majority. The opposing Red-Green bloc led by the Social Democrats holds a consistent lead near 53 percent. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences ahead of the September 13 election, with the incumbent government bloc down from its 2022 result and facing challenges in key areas such as crime, the economy, and migration policy. Trader consensus on an 80 percent probability for no majority aligns with these polling averages and the limited time remaining for shifts before voting.

In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$6,783
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.