Trump's January 2026 threats to acquire Greenland by force or tariffs prompted immediate pushback from Denmark, Greenland's government, NATO allies, and U.S. congressional leaders, who viewed any military move against the Danish territory as a direct threat to the alliance and U.S. credibility. The president subsequently ruled out force in public remarks, pivoted toward negotiations, and faced bipartisan legislation and internal administration caution that constrained options. No troop deployments, war powers requests, or operational preparations have emerged in the ensuing months. Traders assign 96.2% probability to no invasion because an unprovoked attack on a NATO partner would trigger severe diplomatic isolation, domestic legal hurdles, and alliance fracture with little strategic gain. Late-year developments such as renewed acquisition rhetoric or Arctic security talks could test this consensus only if paired with concrete authorization or mobilization.