U.S.-Mexico security cooperation has continued through joint operations, extraditions of cartel figures, increased arms seizures, and intelligence sharing into mid-2026, even amid periodic U.S. statements favoring stronger action against drug trafficking organizations. Mexican officials have consistently rejected any deployment of U.S. troops or unilateral strikes on their territory, emphasizing sovereignty in diplomatic exchanges. Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no invasion occurring this year because no congressional authorization, executive order, or large-scale military mobilization has materialized despite earlier threats, while both governments prioritize trade ties under USMCA and border management. Low-probability shifts could still arise from a sudden breakdown in fentanyl interdiction results or an unforeseen escalation in cross-border violence, though current evidence points to sustained diplomatic containment.