Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, primarily because the narrow remaining window leaves insufficient time for observable large-scale amphibious preparations or force movements by the People’s Liberation Army. Cross-strait dynamics continue through routine air defense identification zone incursions, maritime activities, and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises emphasizing reservist mobilization and supply resilience rather than signaling imminent conflict. Reduced sortie volumes in 2026 compared with prior years reflect a pattern of sustained coercion over kinetic escalation, supported by ongoing U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation and diplomatic channels without major rupture. Late developments such as an unanticipated blockade simulation or sharp diplomatic breakdown could still shift assessments, though the compressed timeline constrains realistic pathways to invasion.