Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, significantly extending timelines for any potential weapons-related activities according to intelligence assessments. IAEA verification has been disrupted with limited access since the strikes, while a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development. Iran maintains no public nuclear test preparations or weaponization program, and breakout estimates now place full capability well beyond 2027 absent major reversals. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks alongside ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of verified advances. Shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at hardened sites, renewed regional escalation prompting a policy change, or sudden loss of international constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, significantly extending timelines for any potential weapons-related activities according to intelligence assessments. IAEA verification has been disrupted with limited access since the strikes, while a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development. Iran maintains no public nuclear test preparations or weaponization program, and breakout estimates now place full capability well beyond 2027 absent major reversals. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks alongside ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of verified advances. Shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at hardened sites, renewed regional escalation prompting a policy change, or sudden loss of international constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,407End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, significantly extending timelines for any potential weapons-related activities according to intelligence assessments. IAEA verification has been disrupted with limited access since the strikes, while a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development. Iran maintains no public nuclear test preparations or weaponization program, and breakout estimates now place full capability well beyond 2027 absent major reversals. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks alongside ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of verified advances. Shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at hardened sites, renewed regional escalation prompting a policy change, or sudden loss of international constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,407End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, significantly extending timelines for any potential weapons-related activities according to intelligence assessments. IAEA verification has been disrupted with limited access since the strikes, while a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development. Iran maintains no public nuclear test preparations or weaponization program, and breakout estimates now place full capability well beyond 2027 absent major reversals. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks alongside ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of verified advances. Shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at hardened sites, renewed regional escalation prompting a policy change, or sudden loss of international constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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