**Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?** Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees for Ukraine have kept substantive negotiations stalled since early 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. Russia continues to insist on recognition of its control over eastern regions and rejects unconditional ceasefires, while Ukraine maintains that any deal requires credible long-term protections against future aggression. U.S.-led diplomacy has been disrupted by the Iran conflict, with fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators in August 2026 yet to yield resumed trilateral progress. Short-lived pauses, such as the May Victory Day truce, have not translated into lasting agreements amid ongoing military operations and divergent positions. These entrenched dynamics underpin trader consensus that a formal peace deal remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
$2,548,937 Vol.
$2,548,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
17% chance
$2,548,937 Vol.
$2,548,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?**
Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees for Ukraine have kept substantive negotiations stalled since early 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. Russia continues to insist on recognition of its control over eastern regions and rejects unconditional ceasefires, while Ukraine maintains that any deal requires credible long-term protections against future aggression. U.S.-led diplomacy has been disrupted by the Iran conflict, with fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators in August 2026 yet to yield resumed trilateral progress. Short-lived pauses, such as the May Victory Day truce, have not translated into lasting agreements amid ongoing military operations and divergent positions. These entrenched dynamics underpin trader consensus that a formal peace deal remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,548,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?**
Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees for Ukraine have kept substantive negotiations stalled since early 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. Russia continues to insist on recognition of its control over eastern regions and rejects unconditional ceasefires, while Ukraine maintains that any deal requires credible long-term protections against future aggression. U.S.-led diplomacy has been disrupted by the Iran conflict, with fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators in August 2026 yet to yield resumed trilateral progress. Short-lived pauses, such as the May Victory Day truce, have not translated into lasting agreements amid ongoing military operations and divergent positions. These entrenched dynamics underpin trader consensus that a formal peace deal remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,548,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?** Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees for Ukraine have kept substantive negotiations stalled since early 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. Russia continues to insist on recognition of its control over eastern regions and rejects unconditional ceasefires, while Ukraine maintains that any deal requires credible long-term protections against future aggression. U.S.-led diplomacy has been disrupted by the Iran conflict, with fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators in August 2026 yet to yield resumed trilateral progress. Short-lived pauses, such as the May Victory Day truce, have not translated into lasting agreements amid ongoing military operations and divergent positions. These entrenched dynamics underpin trader consensus that a formal peace deal remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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