EU sanctions adopted in July 2025 explicitly ban direct and indirect use of the Nord Stream pipelines, reinforcing the bloc’s roadmap to end all Russian pipeline gas imports by April 2027. Physical damage from the 2022 explosions has left most lines inoperable, while European governments have accelerated diversification through LNG terminals and alternative suppliers. German policy statements and EU energy-minister positions have consistently rejected reactivation amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Preservation work on remaining infrastructure was halted by sanctions in early 2026. A durable peace agreement that removes sanctions and shifts political priorities could reopen limited flows, though Ukrainian and Polish opposition plus certification hurdles would still constrain any restart before the market deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions adopted in July 2025 explicitly ban direct and indirect use of the Nord Stream pipelines, reinforcing the bloc’s roadmap to end all Russian pipeline gas imports by April 2027. Physical damage from the 2022 explosions has left most lines inoperable, while European governments have accelerated diversification through LNG terminals and alternative suppliers. German policy statements and EU energy-minister positions have consistently rejected reactivation amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Preservation work on remaining infrastructure was halted by sanctions in early 2026. A durable peace agreement that removes sanctions and shifts political priorities could reopen limited flows, though Ukrainian and Polish opposition plus certification hurdles would still constrain any restart before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$151,561End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions adopted in July 2025 explicitly ban direct and indirect use of the Nord Stream pipelines, reinforcing the bloc’s roadmap to end all Russian pipeline gas imports by April 2027. Physical damage from the 2022 explosions has left most lines inoperable, while European governments have accelerated diversification through LNG terminals and alternative suppliers. German policy statements and EU energy-minister positions have consistently rejected reactivation amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Preservation work on remaining infrastructure was halted by sanctions in early 2026. A durable peace agreement that removes sanctions and shifts political priorities could reopen limited flows, though Ukrainian and Polish opposition plus certification hurdles would still constrain any restart before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$151,561End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...EU sanctions adopted in July 2025 explicitly ban direct and indirect use of the Nord Stream pipelines, reinforcing the bloc’s roadmap to end all Russian pipeline gas imports by April 2027. Physical damage from the 2022 explosions has left most lines inoperable, while European governments have accelerated diversification through LNG terminals and alternative suppliers. German policy statements and EU energy-minister positions have consistently rejected reactivation amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Preservation work on remaining infrastructure was halted by sanctions in early 2026. A durable peace agreement that removes sanctions and shifts political priorities could reopen limited flows, though Ukrainian and Polish opposition plus certification hurdles would still constrain any restart before the market deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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