Skip to main content
icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$360,557 Vol.

Polymarket

$360,557 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$131,441 Vol.

12%

John Brennan

$18,168 Vol.

29%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$21,642 Vol.

23%

Adam Schiff

$16,394 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$28,535 Vol.

1%

James Comey

$9,602 Vol.

6%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,278 Vol.

32%

James Clapper

$6,726 Vol.

13%

Letitia James

$2,821 Vol.

13%

Hillary Clinton

$25,009 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$2,008 Vol.

3%

Loretta Lynch

$2,376 Vol.

9%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$263 Vol.

6%

Gavin Newsom

$37,157 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,789 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$346 Vol.

3%

Pam Bondi

$1,998 Vol.

4%

Tom Homan

$39,428 Vol.

11%

Kash Patel

$530 Vol.

3%

Brandon Johnson

$3,191 Vol.

12%

Lisa Cook

$3,218 Vol.

9%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$5,538 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several high-profile individuals, including former U.S. officials such as John Brennan and James Comey alongside international figures like Mahmoud Khalil and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, carry the highest implied probabilities in this multi-outcome market. Trader positioning centers on the pace and scope of active investigations by the Department of Justice and foreign authorities, procedural timelines for indictments or arrests, and any scheduled court dates or extradition developments through year-end 2026. Low probabilities assigned to former presidents and senators reflect structural barriers including statutes of limitations, prosecutorial discretion, and historical patterns of limited enforcement against senior political figures. Resolution depends on confirmed arrests meeting the market criteria before January 1, 2027, with no major new charges reported in recent weeks that would shift consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$360,557
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several high-profile individuals, including former U.S. officials such as John Brennan and James Comey alongside international figures like Mahmoud Khalil and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, carry the highest implied probabilities in this multi-outcome market. Trader positioning centers on the pace and scope of active investigations by the Department of Justice and foreign authorities, procedural timelines for indictments or arrests, and any scheduled court dates or extradition developments through year-end 2026. Low probabilities assigned to former presidents and senators reflect structural barriers including statutes of limitations, prosecutorial discretion, and historical patterns of limited enforcement against senior political figures. Resolution depends on confirmed arrests meeting the market criteria before January 1, 2027, with no major new charges reported in recent weeks that would shift consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$360,557
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Obama arrested before 2027?

Obama arrested before 2027?

3%
icon for Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

8%
icon for Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

6%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be arrested before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mahmoud Khalil" at 32%, followed by "John Brennan" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be arrested before 2027?" has generated $360.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be arrested before 2027?," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" is "Mahmoud Khalil" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Brennan" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.