Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential sub-1% races due to the structural midterm environment, where the president's party historically faces net losses. Forecasters currently rate Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan as toss-ups or near-toss-ups, with recent polling averages showing margins of 1-5 points in those states. Cook Political Report's August shifts of Iowa and Texas into toss-up territory, driven by softening Republican support amid economic concerns, have expanded the battlefield. Candidate-specific factors include former Sen. Sherrod Brown's comeback bid in Ohio, Susan Collins's reelection effort in Maine, and open-seat dynamics in Michigan following Abdul El-Sayed's primary win. Late September and October debates, along with final turnout efforts in these battlegrounds, represent the remaining catalysts that could determine final certified margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
29%
Alaska
22%
Maine
20%
New Hampshire
18%
Texas
18%
Michigan
18%
Iowa
17%
New Mexico
11%
North Carolina
11%
Nebraska
10%
Florida (Special)
9%
Georgia
9%
Minnesota
8%
Montana
6%
Colorado
4%
Virginia
2%
$1,673 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$0 Vol.
29%
Alaska
$28 Vol.
22%
Maine
$0 Vol.
20%
New Hampshire
$93 Vol.
18%
Texas
$47 Vol.
18%
Michigan
$0 Vol.
18%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
17%
New Mexico
$42 Vol.
11%
North Carolina
$10 Vol.
11%
Nebraska
$106 Vol.
10%
Florida (Special)
$70 Vol.
9%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
9%
Minnesota
$42 Vol.
8%
Montana
$134 Vol.
6%
Colorado
$945 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$157 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential sub-1% races due to the structural midterm environment, where the president's party historically faces net losses. Forecasters currently rate Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan as toss-ups or near-toss-ups, with recent polling averages showing margins of 1-5 points in those states. Cook Political Report's August shifts of Iowa and Texas into toss-up territory, driven by softening Republican support amid economic concerns, have expanded the battlefield. Candidate-specific factors include former Sen. Sherrod Brown's comeback bid in Ohio, Susan Collins's reelection effort in Maine, and open-seat dynamics in Michigan following Abdul El-Sayed's primary win. Late September and October debates, along with final turnout efforts in these battlegrounds, represent the remaining catalysts that could determine final certified margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$1,673End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential sub-1% races due to the structural midterm environment, where the president's party historically faces net losses. Forecasters currently rate Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan as toss-ups or near-toss-ups, with recent polling averages showing margins of 1-5 points in those states. Cook Political Report's August shifts of Iowa and Texas into toss-up territory, driven by softening Republican support amid economic concerns, have expanded the battlefield. Candidate-specific factors include former Sen. Sherrod Brown's comeback bid in Ohio, Susan Collins's reelection effort in Maine, and open-seat dynamics in Michigan following Abdul El-Sayed's primary win. Late September and October debates, along with final turnout efforts in these battlegrounds, represent the remaining catalysts that could determine final certified margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,673End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential sub-1% races due to the structural midterm environment, where the president's party historically faces net losses. Forecasters currently rate Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan as toss-ups or near-toss-ups, with recent polling averages showing margins of 1-5 points in those states. Cook Political Report's August shifts of Iowa and Texas into toss-up territory, driven by softening Republican support amid economic concerns, have expanded the battlefield. Candidate-specific factors include former Sen. Sherrod Brown's comeback bid in Ohio, Susan Collins's reelection effort in Maine, and open-seat dynamics in Michigan following Abdul El-Sayed's primary win. Late September and October debates, along with final turnout efforts in these battlegrounds, represent the remaining catalysts that could determine final certified margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions