Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow fundamentals that sustain trader focus on Texas, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia as potential closest races. Texas polls show incumbent Greg Abbott holding slim leads over Democrat Gina Hinojosa amid a large but polarized electorate. Open seats in Georgia and Ohio, plus Wisconsin’s Democratic incumbent facing a newly nominated Republican challenger after recent primaries, add volatility in states with even or modest partisan leans. Iowa’s economic pressures and New Hampshire’s history of tight margins further compress expected spreads. With the November general election months away and limited late-cycle data, traders treat current polling averages and primary outcomes as the main signals until broader turnout and campaign spending patterns emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 15.3%
Wisconsin 12.6%
New Hampshire 11.9%
Iowa 11.8%
$11,080 Vol.
$11,080 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
15%
Wisconsin
13%
New Hampshire
16%
Iowa
12%
Ohio
12%
Georgia
10%
Kansas
10%
Vermont
7%
Florida
6%
Nevada
6%
Michigan
5%
Alaska
3%
Oregon
3%
Minnesota
3%
Maine
3%
Colorado
2%
New Mexico
2%
Arizona
2%
Texas 15.3%
Wisconsin 12.6%
New Hampshire 11.9%
Iowa 11.8%
$11,080 Vol.
$11,080 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,569 Vol.
15%
Wisconsin
$970 Vol.
13%
New Hampshire
$261 Vol.
16%
Iowa
$1,480 Vol.
12%
Ohio
$418 Vol.
12%
Georgia
$297 Vol.
10%
Kansas
$1,576 Vol.
10%
Vermont
$176 Vol.
7%
Florida
$218 Vol.
6%
Nevada
$1,991 Vol.
6%
Michigan
$329 Vol.
5%
Alaska
$206 Vol.
3%
Oregon
$319 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$214 Vol.
3%
Maine
$355 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$243 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$194 Vol.
2%
Arizona
$264 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow fundamentals that sustain trader focus on Texas, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia as potential closest races. Texas polls show incumbent Greg Abbott holding slim leads over Democrat Gina Hinojosa amid a large but polarized electorate. Open seats in Georgia and Ohio, plus Wisconsin’s Democratic incumbent facing a newly nominated Republican challenger after recent primaries, add volatility in states with even or modest partisan leans. Iowa’s economic pressures and New Hampshire’s history of tight margins further compress expected spreads. With the November general election months away and limited late-cycle data, traders treat current polling averages and primary outcomes as the main signals until broader turnout and campaign spending patterns emerge.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$11,080End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow fundamentals that sustain trader focus on Texas, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia as potential closest races. Texas polls show incumbent Greg Abbott holding slim leads over Democrat Gina Hinojosa amid a large but polarized electorate. Open seats in Georgia and Ohio, plus Wisconsin’s Democratic incumbent facing a newly nominated Republican challenger after recent primaries, add volatility in states with even or modest partisan leans. Iowa’s economic pressures and New Hampshire’s history of tight margins further compress expected spreads. With the November general election months away and limited late-cycle data, traders treat current polling averages and primary outcomes as the main signals until broader turnout and campaign spending patterns emerge.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,080End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow fundamentals that sustain trader focus on Texas, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia as potential closest races. Texas polls show incumbent Greg Abbott holding slim leads over Democrat Gina Hinojosa amid a large but polarized electorate. Open seats in Georgia and Ohio, plus Wisconsin’s Democratic incumbent facing a newly nominated Republican challenger after recent primaries, add volatility in states with even or modest partisan leans. Iowa’s economic pressures and New Hampshire’s history of tight margins further compress expected spreads. With the November general election months away and limited late-cycle data, traders treat current polling averages and primary outcomes as the main signals until broader turnout and campaign spending patterns emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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