Recent polling in Texas and Iowa, showing margins of just a few points between candidates like Paxton-Talarico and Hinson-Turek, has driven trader consensus toward these states as the likeliest closest 2026 Senate races. Competitive dynamics in Ohio's special election, Alaska, and Maine reflect similar factors, including strong challengers facing Republican-held seats, open Democratic seats in Michigan, and shifting state-level turnout patterns. These elements sustain tight implied probabilities across multiple battlegrounds. Further polling releases, candidate debates, fundraising disclosures, or national events could widen or narrow margins before November, potentially shifting focus among the leading contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 33%
Iowa 23.8%
Ohio (Special) 13.7%
Alaska 12%
$27,785 Vol.
$27,785 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
33%
Iowa
23%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Maine
10%
Nebraska
5%
Michigan
4%
Virginia
3%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 33%
Iowa 23.8%
Ohio (Special) 13.7%
Alaska 12%
$27,785 Vol.
$27,785 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$819 Vol.
33%
Iowa
$2,627 Vol.
23%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$5,231 Vol.
12%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
10%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
Michigan
$2,396 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas and Iowa, showing margins of just a few points between candidates like Paxton-Talarico and Hinson-Turek, has driven trader consensus toward these states as the likeliest closest 2026 Senate races. Competitive dynamics in Ohio's special election, Alaska, and Maine reflect similar factors, including strong challengers facing Republican-held seats, open Democratic seats in Michigan, and shifting state-level turnout patterns. These elements sustain tight implied probabilities across multiple battlegrounds. Further polling releases, candidate debates, fundraising disclosures, or national events could widen or narrow margins before November, potentially shifting focus among the leading contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$27,785End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas and Iowa, showing margins of just a few points between candidates like Paxton-Talarico and Hinson-Turek, has driven trader consensus toward these states as the likeliest closest 2026 Senate races. Competitive dynamics in Ohio's special election, Alaska, and Maine reflect similar factors, including strong challengers facing Republican-held seats, open Democratic seats in Michigan, and shifting state-level turnout patterns. These elements sustain tight implied probabilities across multiple battlegrounds. Further polling releases, candidate debates, fundraising disclosures, or national events could widen or narrow margins before November, potentially shifting focus among the leading contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,785End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Texas and Iowa, showing margins of just a few points between candidates like Paxton-Talarico and Hinson-Turek, has driven trader consensus toward these states as the likeliest closest 2026 Senate races. Competitive dynamics in Ohio's special election, Alaska, and Maine reflect similar factors, including strong challengers facing Republican-held seats, open Democratic seats in Michigan, and shifting state-level turnout patterns. These elements sustain tight implied probabilities across multiple battlegrounds. Further polling releases, candidate debates, fundraising disclosures, or national events could widen or narrow margins before November, potentially shifting focus among the leading contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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