Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million domestic opening and $145 million second weekend have propelled it past $700 million domestically and $1.67 billion worldwide in under three weeks, but typical post-holiday drops of 50-60% for even the biggest blockbusters point to a third-weekend gross in the $57-72 million range. Traders have priced this steep but predictable decline into the 96.8% implied probability for sub-$72 million, reflecting the film's front-loaded performance and historical patterns for Marvel tentpoles. An upset above $72 million would require unusually strong word-of-mouth or minimal competition to soften the fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office
<72m 96.8%
72-79m 2.6%
86-93m 1.0%
93m+ <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<72m
97%
72-79m
3%
79-86m
<1%
86-93m
1%
93m+
<1%
<72m 96.8%
72-79m 2.6%
86-93m 1.0%
93m+ <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<72m
$2,878 Vol.
97%
72-79m
$842 Vol.
3%
79-86m
$814 Vol.
<1%
86-93m
$746 Vol.
1%
93m+
$601 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million domestic opening and $145 million second weekend have propelled it past $700 million domestically and $1.67 billion worldwide in under three weeks, but typical post-holiday drops of 50-60% for even the biggest blockbusters point to a third-weekend gross in the $57-72 million range. Traders have priced this steep but predictable decline into the 96.8% implied probability for sub-$72 million, reflecting the film's front-loaded performance and historical patterns for Marvel tentpoles. An upset above $72 million would require unusually strong word-of-mouth or minimal competition to soften the fall.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$5,881End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million domestic opening and $145 million second weekend have propelled it past $700 million domestically and $1.67 billion worldwide in under three weeks, but typical post-holiday drops of 50-60% for even the biggest blockbusters point to a third-weekend gross in the $57-72 million range. Traders have priced this steep but predictable decline into the 96.8% implied probability for sub-$72 million, reflecting the film's front-loaded performance and historical patterns for Marvel tentpoles. An upset above $72 million would require unusually strong word-of-mouth or minimal competition to soften the fall.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$5,881End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million domestic opening and $145 million second weekend have propelled it past $700 million domestically and $1.67 billion worldwide in under three weeks, but typical post-holiday drops of 50-60% for even the biggest blockbusters point to a third-weekend gross in the $57-72 million range. Traders have priced this steep but predictable decline into the 96.8% implied probability for sub-$72 million, reflecting the film's front-loaded performance and historical patterns for Marvel tentpoles. An upset above $72 million would require unusually strong word-of-mouth or minimal competition to soften the fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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