Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 64.5% for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of November, driven by consistent benchmark leadership in mathematical reasoning tasks with its latest large language models. Traders appear to favor the company's focused scaling on chain-of-thought capabilities and verified performance gains over rivals, while Google and OpenAI sit at 15.5% each amid ongoing model iterations that have yet to close the gap on specialized math evaluations. Lower odds for ByteDance, Z.ai, and others reflect limited public demonstrations of comparable math-specific advances. Key catalysts ahead include any major model releases or third-party benchmark updates in the coming weeks that could shift trader consensus on capability edges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 58.1%
Google 16%
OpenAI 11%
ByteDance 4.6%
$14,549 Vol.
$14,549 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
58%
16%
OpenAI
11%
ByteDance
5%
Z.ai
4%
Nvidia
3%
Meituan
2%
Alibaba
2%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Thinky
1%
Moonshot
1%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
Meta
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Anthropic 58.1%
Google 16%
OpenAI 11%
ByteDance 4.6%
$14,549 Vol.
$14,549 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$4,221 Vol.
58%
$2,150 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$1,600 Vol.
11%
ByteDance
$589 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$329 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$635 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$1,502 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$305 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$165 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$165 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$165 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$193 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$289 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$289 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$251 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$289 Vol.
1%
Meta
$269 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$275 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$310 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$269 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$289 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 64.5% for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of November, driven by consistent benchmark leadership in mathematical reasoning tasks with its latest large language models. Traders appear to favor the company's focused scaling on chain-of-thought capabilities and verified performance gains over rivals, while Google and OpenAI sit at 15.5% each amid ongoing model iterations that have yet to close the gap on specialized math evaluations. Lower odds for ByteDance, Z.ai, and others reflect limited public demonstrations of comparable math-specific advances. Key catalysts ahead include any major model releases or third-party benchmark updates in the coming weeks that could shift trader consensus on capability edges.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$14,549End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 64.5% for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of November, driven by consistent benchmark leadership in mathematical reasoning tasks with its latest large language models. Traders appear to favor the company's focused scaling on chain-of-thought capabilities and verified performance gains over rivals, while Google and OpenAI sit at 15.5% each amid ongoing model iterations that have yet to close the gap on specialized math evaluations. Lower odds for ByteDance, Z.ai, and others reflect limited public demonstrations of comparable math-specific advances. Key catalysts ahead include any major model releases or third-party benchmark updates in the coming weeks that could shift trader consensus on capability edges.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$14,549End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 64.5% for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of November, driven by consistent benchmark leadership in mathematical reasoning tasks with its latest large language models. Traders appear to favor the company's focused scaling on chain-of-thought capabilities and verified performance gains over rivals, while Google and OpenAI sit at 15.5% each amid ongoing model iterations that have yet to close the gap on specialized math evaluations. Lower odds for ByteDance, Z.ai, and others reflect limited public demonstrations of comparable math-specific advances. Key catalysts ahead include any major model releases or third-party benchmark updates in the coming weeks that could shift trader consensus on capability edges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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