Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5 has driven the 86.5% market-implied odds, as the model leads recent intelligence indices and coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 while cutting costs 40% versus its predecessor on typical workloads. Traders view the timing as decisive with only two months until resolution, giving rivals limited runway for a superior release. OpenAI’s simultaneous GPT-6 Sol and Luna launches and Google’s Gemini updates trail on key agentic and reasoning metrics, leaving them at 3.6% and 8.5%. Chinese labs and others register minimal odds due to smaller capability gaps on public leaderboards. Market consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current demonstrated performance rather than future speculation, though any unexpected November model from competitors could still alter outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 87%
Google 8%
OpenAI 3.6%
StepFun 1.9%
$12,009 Vol.
$12,009 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
87%
8%
OpenAI
4%
StepFun
2%
ByteDance
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 8%
OpenAI 3.6%
StepFun 1.9%
$12,009 Vol.
$12,009 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$2,391 Vol.
87%
$652 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$735 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$523 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$492 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$463 Vol.
1%
Meta
$461 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$495 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$494 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$449 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$458 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$411 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$411 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$461 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$412 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$411 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$411 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$462 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$496 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$496 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$423 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5 has driven the 86.5% market-implied odds, as the model leads recent intelligence indices and coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 while cutting costs 40% versus its predecessor on typical workloads. Traders view the timing as decisive with only two months until resolution, giving rivals limited runway for a superior release. OpenAI’s simultaneous GPT-6 Sol and Luna launches and Google’s Gemini updates trail on key agentic and reasoning metrics, leaving them at 3.6% and 8.5%. Chinese labs and others register minimal odds due to smaller capability gaps on public leaderboards. Market consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current demonstrated performance rather than future speculation, though any unexpected November model from competitors could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$12,009End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5 has driven the 86.5% market-implied odds, as the model leads recent intelligence indices and coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 while cutting costs 40% versus its predecessor on typical workloads. Traders view the timing as decisive with only two months until resolution, giving rivals limited runway for a superior release. OpenAI’s simultaneous GPT-6 Sol and Luna launches and Google’s Gemini updates trail on key agentic and reasoning metrics, leaving them at 3.6% and 8.5%. Chinese labs and others register minimal odds due to smaller capability gaps on public leaderboards. Market consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current demonstrated performance rather than future speculation, though any unexpected November model from competitors could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$12,009End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5 has driven the 86.5% market-implied odds, as the model leads recent intelligence indices and coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 while cutting costs 40% versus its predecessor on typical workloads. Traders view the timing as decisive with only two months until resolution, giving rivals limited runway for a superior release. OpenAI’s simultaneous GPT-6 Sol and Luna launches and Google’s Gemini updates trail on key agentic and reasoning metrics, leaving them at 3.6% and 8.5%. Chinese labs and others register minimal odds due to smaller capability gaps on public leaderboards. Market consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current demonstrated performance rather than future speculation, though any unexpected November model from competitors could still alter outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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