Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and the newly released Opus 5.5 currently lead major independent leaderboards and arena rankings as of late September 2026, posting the highest composite scores across reasoning, agentic, and coding benchmarks while holding the top Elo positions under style-controlled evaluations. Traders price this sustained edge at 78.5% implied probability for end-of-November leadership because recent model updates have widened Anthropic’s margin over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other rivals, with consistent outperformance on verified agentic and terminal-bench metrics. Lower odds on Google, Meta, and others reflect slower recent gains and fewer frontier placements. Market consensus could shift if a late-October release from OpenAI or xAI posts materially higher verified scores, though historical release cycles suggest limited time remains for such a reversal before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 79%
Google 8%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.4%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
79%
8%
Meta
8%
Amazon
4%
StepFun
3%
Meituan
3%
Thinky
3%
Nvidia
3%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Tencent
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Anthropic 79%
Google 8%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.4%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,646 Vol.
79%
$258 Vol.
8%
Meta
$284 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$191 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$191 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$191 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$193 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$180 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$182 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$182 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$186 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$145 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$131 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$175 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$170 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$187 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$190 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$191 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$191 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$231 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$260 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and the newly released Opus 5.5 currently lead major independent leaderboards and arena rankings as of late September 2026, posting the highest composite scores across reasoning, agentic, and coding benchmarks while holding the top Elo positions under style-controlled evaluations. Traders price this sustained edge at 78.5% implied probability for end-of-November leadership because recent model updates have widened Anthropic’s margin over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other rivals, with consistent outperformance on verified agentic and terminal-bench metrics. Lower odds on Google, Meta, and others reflect slower recent gains and fewer frontier placements. Market consensus could shift if a late-October release from OpenAI or xAI posts materially higher verified scores, though historical release cycles suggest limited time remains for such a reversal before November.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$5,555End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and the newly released Opus 5.5 currently lead major independent leaderboards and arena rankings as of late September 2026, posting the highest composite scores across reasoning, agentic, and coding benchmarks while holding the top Elo positions under style-controlled evaluations. Traders price this sustained edge at 78.5% implied probability for end-of-November leadership because recent model updates have widened Anthropic’s margin over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other rivals, with consistent outperformance on verified agentic and terminal-bench metrics. Lower odds on Google, Meta, and others reflect slower recent gains and fewer frontier placements. Market consensus could shift if a late-October release from OpenAI or xAI posts materially higher verified scores, though historical release cycles suggest limited time remains for such a reversal before November.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$5,555End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and the newly released Opus 5.5 currently lead major independent leaderboards and arena rankings as of late September 2026, posting the highest composite scores across reasoning, agentic, and coding benchmarks while holding the top Elo positions under style-controlled evaluations. Traders price this sustained edge at 78.5% implied probability for end-of-November leadership because recent model updates have widened Anthropic’s margin over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other rivals, with consistent outperformance on verified agentic and terminal-bench metrics. Lower odds on Google, Meta, and others reflect slower recent gains and fewer frontier placements. Market consensus could shift if a late-October release from OpenAI or xAI posts materially higher verified scores, though historical release cycles suggest limited time remains for such a reversal before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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