Meta’s rapid Muse Spark iteration—1.3 arriving September 2 after 1.2 in early August—has created tight trader consensus around an October 1.4+ release, with near-even odds reflecting uncertainty over exact timing. The model family emphasizes efficient multimodal reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance via Meta Superintelligence Labs, positioning it against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google while powering Meta AI across platforms. Zuckerberg’s September 2 post highlighted “frontier performance” gains alongside plans for open-weights releases and a larger codenamed Watermelon model, yet no confirmed 1.4 details or firm dates have emerged by late September. Key swing factors include safety testing completion, API rollout cadence, and competitive benchmark pressure, with resolution hinging on public availability thresholds through October 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOctober 26 26%
October 29 26%
October 21 25%
On or prior to October 1 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
15%
October 2
14%
October 3
8%
October 4
8%
October 5
14%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
14%
October 9
14%
October 10
14%
October 11
14%
October 12
14%
October 13
14%
October 14
14%
October 15
8%
October 16
14%
October 17
14%
October 18
14%
October 19
9%
October 20
14%
October 21
25%
October 22
14%
October 23
13%
October 24
14%
October 25
13%
October 26
26%
October 27
13%
October 28
13%
October 29
26%
October 30
14%
October 31
14%
No release by October 31
14%
October 26 26%
October 29 26%
October 21 25%
On or prior to October 1 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$0 Vol.
15%
October 2
$0 Vol.
14%
October 3
$0 Vol.
8%
October 4
$0 Vol.
8%
October 5
$0 Vol.
14%
October 6
$0 Vol.
14%
October 7
$0 Vol.
14%
October 8
$0 Vol.
14%
October 9
$0 Vol.
14%
October 10
$0 Vol.
14%
October 11
$0 Vol.
14%
October 12
$0 Vol.
14%
October 13
$0 Vol.
14%
October 14
$0 Vol.
14%
October 15
$0 Vol.
8%
October 16
$0 Vol.
14%
October 17
$0 Vol.
14%
October 18
$0 Vol.
14%
October 19
$0 Vol.
9%
October 20
$0 Vol.
14%
October 21
$0 Vol.
25%
October 22
$0 Vol.
14%
October 23
$0 Vol.
13%
October 24
$0 Vol.
14%
October 25
$0 Vol.
13%
October 26
$0 Vol.
26%
October 27
$0 Vol.
13%
October 28
$0 Vol.
13%
October 29
$0 Vol.
26%
October 30
$0 Vol.
14%
October 31
$0 Vol.
14%
No release by October 31
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid Muse Spark iteration—1.3 arriving September 2 after 1.2 in early August—has created tight trader consensus around an October 1.4+ release, with near-even odds reflecting uncertainty over exact timing. The model family emphasizes efficient multimodal reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance via Meta Superintelligence Labs, positioning it against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google while powering Meta AI across platforms. Zuckerberg’s September 2 post highlighted “frontier performance” gains alongside plans for open-weights releases and a larger codenamed Watermelon model, yet no confirmed 1.4 details or firm dates have emerged by late September. Key swing factors include safety testing completion, API rollout cadence, and competitive benchmark pressure, with resolution hinging on public availability thresholds through October 31.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid Muse Spark iteration—1.3 arriving September 2 after 1.2 in early August—has created tight trader consensus around an October 1.4+ release, with near-even odds reflecting uncertainty over exact timing. The model family emphasizes efficient multimodal reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance via Meta Superintelligence Labs, positioning it against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google while powering Meta AI across platforms. Zuckerberg’s September 2 post highlighted “frontier performance” gains alongside plans for open-weights releases and a larger codenamed Watermelon model, yet no confirmed 1.4 details or firm dates have emerged by late September. Key swing factors include safety testing completion, API rollout cadence, and competitive benchmark pressure, with resolution hinging on public availability thresholds through October 31.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s rapid Muse Spark iteration—1.3 arriving September 2 after 1.2 in early August—has created tight trader consensus around an October 1.4+ release, with near-even odds reflecting uncertainty over exact timing. The model family emphasizes efficient multimodal reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance via Meta Superintelligence Labs, positioning it against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google while powering Meta AI across platforms. Zuckerberg’s September 2 post highlighted “frontier performance” gains alongside plans for open-weights releases and a larger codenamed Watermelon model, yet no confirmed 1.4 details or firm dates have emerged by late September. Key swing factors include safety testing completion, API rollout cadence, and competitive benchmark pressure, with resolution hinging on public availability thresholds through October 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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