Kim Schrier, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2018, advanced comfortably from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican Spencer Meline. Forecasters across outlets rate the district Likely or Safe Democratic, reflecting its modest left-of-center partisan lean, Schrier’s consistent fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure in suburban King and Pierce County areas. Trader consensus at 93.6 percent for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of shifting the race. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, a significant polling miss, or an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-08 House Election Winner
WA-08 House Election Winner
$11,643 Vol.
$11,643 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$11,643 Vol.
$11,643 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,482 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$6,161 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kim Schrier, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2018, advanced comfortably from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican Spencer Meline. Forecasters across outlets rate the district Likely or Safe Democratic, reflecting its modest left-of-center partisan lean, Schrier’s consistent fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure in suburban King and Pierce County areas. Trader consensus at 93.6 percent for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of shifting the race. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, a significant polling miss, or an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$11,643End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kim Schrier, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2018, advanced comfortably from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican Spencer Meline. Forecasters across outlets rate the district Likely or Safe Democratic, reflecting its modest left-of-center partisan lean, Schrier’s consistent fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure in suburban King and Pierce County areas. Trader consensus at 93.6 percent for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of shifting the race. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, a significant polling miss, or an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,643End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kim Schrier, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2018, advanced comfortably from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican Spencer Meline. Forecasters across outlets rate the district Likely or Safe Democratic, reflecting its modest left-of-center partisan lean, Schrier’s consistent fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure in suburban King and Pierce County areas. Trader consensus at 93.6 percent for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of shifting the race. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national tailwind, a significant polling miss, or an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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