Delcy Rodríguez holds overwhelming trader consensus as Venezuela’s likely de facto leader at year-end 2026 because she assumed the acting presidency in January 2026 after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, received military backing, and has since consolidated power through loyalist appointments, economic openings to foreign investment, and managed U.S. demands on oil and sanctions relief. Recent events, including the June earthquakes and resumed U.S.-backed transition talks, have not displaced her position or triggered elite defections. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain marginalized by fragmented support and limited access, while other listed individuals lack institutional or military footholds. Market pricing therefore reflects the continuity of Rodríguez’s interim authority under prevailing diplomatic and security conditions rather than any near-term shift in control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDelcy Rodríguez 90%
María Corina Machado 3.5%
Dinorah Figuera 1.6%
Pete Hegseth <1%
$367,913 Vol.
$367,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
90%
María Corina Machado
4%
Dinorah Figuera
2%
Pete Hegseth
1%
Dan Caine
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Nicolás Maduro
1%
Edmundo González
1%
No Head of State
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 90%
María Corina Machado 3.5%
Dinorah Figuera 1.6%
Pete Hegseth <1%
$367,913 Vol.
$367,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$86,357 Vol.
90%
María Corina Machado
$52,358 Vol.
4%
Dinorah Figuera
$4,171 Vol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$2,758 Vol.
1%
Dan Caine
$3,059 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$5,960 Vol.
1%
Nicolás Maduro
$4,151 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$3,500 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$66,886 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$8,193 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$68,019 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$42,101 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$2,670 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$3,393 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$7,128 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$7,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez holds overwhelming trader consensus as Venezuela’s likely de facto leader at year-end 2026 because she assumed the acting presidency in January 2026 after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, received military backing, and has since consolidated power through loyalist appointments, economic openings to foreign investment, and managed U.S. demands on oil and sanctions relief. Recent events, including the June earthquakes and resumed U.S.-backed transition talks, have not displaced her position or triggered elite defections. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain marginalized by fragmented support and limited access, while other listed individuals lack institutional or military footholds. Market pricing therefore reflects the continuity of Rodríguez’s interim authority under prevailing diplomatic and security conditions rather than any near-term shift in control.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Volume
$367,913End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez holds overwhelming trader consensus as Venezuela’s likely de facto leader at year-end 2026 because she assumed the acting presidency in January 2026 after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, received military backing, and has since consolidated power through loyalist appointments, economic openings to foreign investment, and managed U.S. demands on oil and sanctions relief. Recent events, including the June earthquakes and resumed U.S.-backed transition talks, have not displaced her position or triggered elite defections. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain marginalized by fragmented support and limited access, while other listed individuals lack institutional or military footholds. Market pricing therefore reflects the continuity of Rodríguez’s interim authority under prevailing diplomatic and security conditions rather than any near-term shift in control.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$367,913End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Delcy Rodríguez holds overwhelming trader consensus as Venezuela’s likely de facto leader at year-end 2026 because she assumed the acting presidency in January 2026 after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, received military backing, and has since consolidated power through loyalist appointments, economic openings to foreign investment, and managed U.S. demands on oil and sanctions relief. Recent events, including the June earthquakes and resumed U.S.-backed transition talks, have not displaced her position or triggered elite defections. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain marginalized by fragmented support and limited access, while other listed individuals lack institutional or military footholds. Market pricing therefore reflects the continuity of Rodríguez’s interim authority under prevailing diplomatic and security conditions rather than any near-term shift in control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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