U.S. policy since the January 2026 military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro has centered on engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez, including eased sanctions, expanded oil sector access for American firms, and U.S.-backed negotiations with select opposition figures that deliberately exclude María Corina Machado. President Trump has repeatedly stated that Machado lacks sufficient domestic support to lead, while administration priorities emphasize stability and investment over rapid transition to opposition figures. Recent talks launched in late July 2026 further illustrate this approach, with Machado sidelined and her return from exile still projected for late 2026 at the earliest. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Shifts could arise from unexpected policy reversals, constitutional election timelines accelerating under pressure, or major diplomatic breakthroughs altering Washington’s calculus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy since the January 2026 military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro has centered on engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez, including eased sanctions, expanded oil sector access for American firms, and U.S.-backed negotiations with select opposition figures that deliberately exclude María Corina Machado. President Trump has repeatedly stated that Machado lacks sufficient domestic support to lead, while administration priorities emphasize stability and investment over rapid transition to opposition figures. Recent talks launched in late July 2026 further illustrate this approach, with Machado sidelined and her return from exile still projected for late 2026 at the earliest. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Shifts could arise from unexpected policy reversals, constitutional election timelines accelerating under pressure, or major diplomatic breakthroughs altering Washington’s calculus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,084End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy since the January 2026 military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro has centered on engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez, including eased sanctions, expanded oil sector access for American firms, and U.S.-backed negotiations with select opposition figures that deliberately exclude María Corina Machado. President Trump has repeatedly stated that Machado lacks sufficient domestic support to lead, while administration priorities emphasize stability and investment over rapid transition to opposition figures. Recent talks launched in late July 2026 further illustrate this approach, with Machado sidelined and her return from exile still projected for late 2026 at the earliest. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Shifts could arise from unexpected policy reversals, constitutional election timelines accelerating under pressure, or major diplomatic breakthroughs altering Washington’s calculus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,084End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy since the January 2026 military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro has centered on engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez, including eased sanctions, expanded oil sector access for American firms, and U.S.-backed negotiations with select opposition figures that deliberately exclude María Corina Machado. President Trump has repeatedly stated that Machado lacks sufficient domestic support to lead, while administration priorities emphasize stability and investment over rapid transition to opposition figures. Recent talks launched in late July 2026 further illustrate this approach, with Machado sidelined and her return from exile still projected for late 2026 at the earliest. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Shifts could arise from unexpected policy reversals, constitutional election timelines accelerating under pressure, or major diplomatic breakthroughs altering Washington’s calculus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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