The Trump administration has maintained and expanded oil-related sanctions on Cuba since early 2026, including executive actions blocking shipments after Venezuela’s supply cutoff, tariffs targeting third-country suppliers, and June designations against Cuba’s state oil company amid widespread blackouts and fuel shortages. Limited licensing for Venezuelan oil resales to Cuba’s private sector has occurred, but broader relief remains absent as policy prioritizes national security objectives and pressure on the Cuban government. Ongoing diplomatic talks have yielded no major concessions, while recent August designations of military-linked entities signal continued enforcement. Traders assessing announcement probabilities by specific deadlines weigh these enforcement trends against any humanitarian or bilateral signals that could prompt policy shifts within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,696 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
36%
December 31
42%
$46,696 Vol.
September 30
$43 Vol.
36%
December 31
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has maintained and expanded oil-related sanctions on Cuba since early 2026, including executive actions blocking shipments after Venezuela’s supply cutoff, tariffs targeting third-country suppliers, and June designations against Cuba’s state oil company amid widespread blackouts and fuel shortages. Limited licensing for Venezuelan oil resales to Cuba’s private sector has occurred, but broader relief remains absent as policy prioritizes national security objectives and pressure on the Cuban government. Ongoing diplomatic talks have yielded no major concessions, while recent August designations of military-linked entities signal continued enforcement. Traders assessing announcement probabilities by specific deadlines weigh these enforcement trends against any humanitarian or bilateral signals that could prompt policy shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$46,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has maintained and expanded oil-related sanctions on Cuba since early 2026, including executive actions blocking shipments after Venezuela’s supply cutoff, tariffs targeting third-country suppliers, and June designations against Cuba’s state oil company amid widespread blackouts and fuel shortages. Limited licensing for Venezuelan oil resales to Cuba’s private sector has occurred, but broader relief remains absent as policy prioritizes national security objectives and pressure on the Cuban government. Ongoing diplomatic talks have yielded no major concessions, while recent August designations of military-linked entities signal continued enforcement. Traders assessing announcement probabilities by specific deadlines weigh these enforcement trends against any humanitarian or bilateral signals that could prompt policy shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration has maintained and expanded oil-related sanctions on Cuba since early 2026, including executive actions blocking shipments after Venezuela’s supply cutoff, tariffs targeting third-country suppliers, and June designations against Cuba’s state oil company amid widespread blackouts and fuel shortages. Limited licensing for Venezuelan oil resales to Cuba’s private sector has occurred, but broader relief remains absent as policy prioritizes national security objectives and pressure on the Cuban government. Ongoing diplomatic talks have yielded no major concessions, while recent August designations of military-linked entities signal continued enforcement. Traders assessing announcement probabilities by specific deadlines weigh these enforcement trends against any humanitarian or bilateral signals that could prompt policy shifts within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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