Trump's continued tenure through August 31, 2026 faces no active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or documented health crises capable of triggering resignation within the narrow 16-day window. Removal requires either two-thirds Senate conviction after House approval or coordinated cabinet action under constitutional procedures, both of which historically demand extended timelines and broad bipartisan consensus absent in the current Congress. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because scheduled legislative sessions, confirmation hearings, and diplomatic calendars show no disruption signals, while comparable past presidencies demonstrate low base rates for mid-term exits absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments such as acute medical emergencies or unforeseen scandals could theoretically shift probabilities, yet the compressed calendar leaves minimal runway for those processes to conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$1,480,748 Vol.
$1,480,748 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$1,480,748 Vol.
$1,480,748 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued tenure through August 31, 2026 faces no active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or documented health crises capable of triggering resignation within the narrow 16-day window. Removal requires either two-thirds Senate conviction after House approval or coordinated cabinet action under constitutional procedures, both of which historically demand extended timelines and broad bipartisan consensus absent in the current Congress. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because scheduled legislative sessions, confirmation hearings, and diplomatic calendars show no disruption signals, while comparable past presidencies demonstrate low base rates for mid-term exits absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments such as acute medical emergencies or unforeseen scandals could theoretically shift probabilities, yet the compressed calendar leaves minimal runway for those processes to conclude.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,480,748End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued tenure through August 31, 2026 faces no active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or documented health crises capable of triggering resignation within the narrow 16-day window. Removal requires either two-thirds Senate conviction after House approval or coordinated cabinet action under constitutional procedures, both of which historically demand extended timelines and broad bipartisan consensus absent in the current Congress. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because scheduled legislative sessions, confirmation hearings, and diplomatic calendars show no disruption signals, while comparable past presidencies demonstrate low base rates for mid-term exits absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments such as acute medical emergencies or unforeseen scandals could theoretically shift probabilities, yet the compressed calendar leaves minimal runway for those processes to conclude.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,480,748End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's continued tenure through August 31, 2026 faces no active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or documented health crises capable of triggering resignation within the narrow 16-day window. Removal requires either two-thirds Senate conviction after House approval or coordinated cabinet action under constitutional procedures, both of which historically demand extended timelines and broad bipartisan consensus absent in the current Congress. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because scheduled legislative sessions, confirmation hearings, and diplomatic calendars show no disruption signals, while comparable past presidencies demonstrate low base rates for mid-term exits absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments such as acute medical emergencies or unforeseen scandals could theoretically shift probabilities, yet the compressed calendar leaves minimal runway for those processes to conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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