Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends to 2029, anchors the near-certain trader consensus that he will remain in office through August 31. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress block any realistic path to impeachment and removal in the remaining weeks, while recent executive actions on naval rebuilding, cyber policy, and agriculture confirm active governance without signs of resignation or incapacity proceedings. Isolated Democratic resolutions and calls for removal tied to foreign policy or election claims lack the votes for advancement. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as a sudden medical crisis, voluntary departure, or an improbable constitutional mechanism activating in the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$1,496,371 Vol.
$1,496,371 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$1,496,371 Vol.
$1,496,371 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends to 2029, anchors the near-certain trader consensus that he will remain in office through August 31. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress block any realistic path to impeachment and removal in the remaining weeks, while recent executive actions on naval rebuilding, cyber policy, and agriculture confirm active governance without signs of resignation or incapacity proceedings. Isolated Democratic resolutions and calls for removal tied to foreign policy or election claims lack the votes for advancement. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as a sudden medical crisis, voluntary departure, or an improbable constitutional mechanism activating in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,496,371End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends to 2029, anchors the near-certain trader consensus that he will remain in office through August 31. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress block any realistic path to impeachment and removal in the remaining weeks, while recent executive actions on naval rebuilding, cyber policy, and agriculture confirm active governance without signs of resignation or incapacity proceedings. Isolated Democratic resolutions and calls for removal tied to foreign policy or election claims lack the votes for advancement. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as a sudden medical crisis, voluntary departure, or an improbable constitutional mechanism activating in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,496,371End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends to 2029, anchors the near-certain trader consensus that he will remain in office through August 31. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress block any realistic path to impeachment and removal in the remaining weeks, while recent executive actions on naval rebuilding, cyber policy, and agriculture confirm active governance without signs of resignation or incapacity proceedings. Isolated Democratic resolutions and calls for removal tied to foreign policy or election claims lack the votes for advancement. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as a sudden medical crisis, voluntary departure, or an improbable constitutional mechanism activating in the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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