Tennessee's strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent statewide voting patterns and the party's control of state government, underpins the high implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest. Incumbent Bill Lee is term-limited, and the August 6 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn, who defeated U.S. Representative John Rose and state Representative Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary similarly yielded a standard-bearer in Jerri Green. With limited recent polling showing wide gaps and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican side overwhelming odds. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national political realignment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes have limited historical precedent in the state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTennessee Governor Election Winner
Tennessee Governor Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$5,371 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$2,182 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tennessee's strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent statewide voting patterns and the party's control of state government, underpins the high implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest. Incumbent Bill Lee is term-limited, and the August 6 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn, who defeated U.S. Representative John Rose and state Representative Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary similarly yielded a standard-bearer in Jerri Green. With limited recent polling showing wide gaps and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican side overwhelming odds. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national political realignment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes have limited historical precedent in the state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,553End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tennessee's strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent statewide voting patterns and the party's control of state government, underpins the high implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest. Incumbent Bill Lee is term-limited, and the August 6 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn, who defeated U.S. Representative John Rose and state Representative Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary similarly yielded a standard-bearer in Jerri Green. With limited recent polling showing wide gaps and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican side overwhelming odds. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national political realignment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes have limited historical precedent in the state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$7,553End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent statewide voting patterns and the party's control of state government, underpins the high implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest. Incumbent Bill Lee is term-limited, and the August 6 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn, who defeated U.S. Representative John Rose and state Representative Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary similarly yielded a standard-bearer in Jerri Green. With limited recent polling showing wide gaps and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout dynamics, trader consensus assigns the Republican side overwhelming odds. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national political realignment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes have limited historical precedent in the state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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