Strong audience retention and consistent top ranking through its fourth weekend position “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” for a fifth-frame domestic gross centered on 22-24 million. After a record $360 million opening, the Tom Holland-Zendaya Marvel title posted steep but typical drops—60 percent, then 51 percent, then 45 percent—yet held the #1 spot with a 2.4x domestic multiplier and an “A” CinemaScore supporting word-of-mouth. With minimal counterprogramming and solid streaming buzz building, traders see the current trajectory landing squarely in the 22-24 million band at 62.5 percent implied probability, while higher or lower brackets remain long shots absent a surprise surge or sharper decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office
22-24m 64%
20-22m 34%
26m+ 1.9%
<20m <1%
$48,996 Vol.
$48,996 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20m
1%
20-22m
34%
22-24m
64%
24-26m
<1%
26m+
2%
22-24m 64%
20-22m 34%
26m+ 1.9%
<20m <1%
$48,996 Vol.
$48,996 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20m
$10,964 Vol.
1%
20-22m
$14,350 Vol.
34%
22-24m
$12,143 Vol.
64%
24-26m
$7,777 Vol.
<1%
26m+
$9,347 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience retention and consistent top ranking through its fourth weekend position “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” for a fifth-frame domestic gross centered on 22-24 million. After a record $360 million opening, the Tom Holland-Zendaya Marvel title posted steep but typical drops—60 percent, then 51 percent, then 45 percent—yet held the #1 spot with a 2.4x domestic multiplier and an “A” CinemaScore supporting word-of-mouth. With minimal counterprogramming and solid streaming buzz building, traders see the current trajectory landing squarely in the 22-24 million band at 62.5 percent implied probability, while higher or lower brackets remain long shots absent a surprise surge or sharper decline.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$48,996End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience retention and consistent top ranking through its fourth weekend position “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” for a fifth-frame domestic gross centered on 22-24 million. After a record $360 million opening, the Tom Holland-Zendaya Marvel title posted steep but typical drops—60 percent, then 51 percent, then 45 percent—yet held the #1 spot with a 2.4x domestic multiplier and an “A” CinemaScore supporting word-of-mouth. With minimal counterprogramming and solid streaming buzz building, traders see the current trajectory landing squarely in the 22-24 million band at 62.5 percent implied probability, while higher or lower brackets remain long shots absent a surprise surge or sharper decline.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,996End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong audience retention and consistent top ranking through its fourth weekend position “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” for a fifth-frame domestic gross centered on 22-24 million. After a record $360 million opening, the Tom Holland-Zendaya Marvel title posted steep but typical drops—60 percent, then 51 percent, then 45 percent—yet held the #1 spot with a 2.4x domestic multiplier and an “A” CinemaScore supporting word-of-mouth. With minimal counterprogramming and solid streaming buzz building, traders see the current trajectory landing squarely in the 22-24 million band at 62.5 percent implied probability, while higher or lower brackets remain long shots absent a surprise surge or sharper decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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