Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360 million opening and $145 million second weekend have established dominant legs for a superhero tentpole, driving trader consensus toward a third-weekend domestic gross below $72 million at 95.5% implied probability. Industry tracking points to a 50-60% drop from the prior frame, consistent with historical patterns for high-opening Marvel and Sony releases that front-load audience interest, leaving the film projected in the $57-72 million range while still topping the chart. Strong critical reception and word-of-mouth have sustained per-screen averages, but competition and typical audience fatigue create clear barriers to outsized holds. An upset pushing into the $72-79 million band or higher would require unusually resilient attendance, perhaps fueled by exceptional late reviews, major promotional events, or weather-driven theater traffic that exceeds current models.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office
<72m 95.5%
72-79m 2.2%
86-93m <1%
79-86m <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<72m
95%
72-79m
2%
79-86m
<1%
86-93m
1%
93m+
<1%
<72m 95.5%
72-79m 2.2%
86-93m <1%
79-86m <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<72m
$3,705 Vol.
95%
72-79m
$877 Vol.
2%
79-86m
$814 Vol.
<1%
86-93m
$751 Vol.
1%
93m+
$610 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360 million opening and $145 million second weekend have established dominant legs for a superhero tentpole, driving trader consensus toward a third-weekend domestic gross below $72 million at 95.5% implied probability. Industry tracking points to a 50-60% drop from the prior frame, consistent with historical patterns for high-opening Marvel and Sony releases that front-load audience interest, leaving the film projected in the $57-72 million range while still topping the chart. Strong critical reception and word-of-mouth have sustained per-screen averages, but competition and typical audience fatigue create clear barriers to outsized holds. An upset pushing into the $72-79 million band or higher would require unusually resilient attendance, perhaps fueled by exceptional late reviews, major promotional events, or weather-driven theater traffic that exceeds current models.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$6,756End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360 million opening and $145 million second weekend have established dominant legs for a superhero tentpole, driving trader consensus toward a third-weekend domestic gross below $72 million at 95.5% implied probability. Industry tracking points to a 50-60% drop from the prior frame, consistent with historical patterns for high-opening Marvel and Sony releases that front-load audience interest, leaving the film projected in the $57-72 million range while still topping the chart. Strong critical reception and word-of-mouth have sustained per-screen averages, but competition and typical audience fatigue create clear barriers to outsized holds. An upset pushing into the $72-79 million band or higher would require unusually resilient attendance, perhaps fueled by exceptional late reviews, major promotional events, or weather-driven theater traffic that exceeds current models.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$6,756End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360 million opening and $145 million second weekend have established dominant legs for a superhero tentpole, driving trader consensus toward a third-weekend domestic gross below $72 million at 95.5% implied probability. Industry tracking points to a 50-60% drop from the prior frame, consistent with historical patterns for high-opening Marvel and Sony releases that front-load audience interest, leaving the film projected in the $57-72 million range while still topping the chart. Strong critical reception and word-of-mouth have sustained per-screen averages, but competition and typical audience fatigue create clear barriers to outsized holds. An upset pushing into the $72-79 million band or higher would require unusually resilient attendance, perhaps fueled by exceptional late reviews, major promotional events, or weather-driven theater traffic that exceeds current models.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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