High trader confidence in "No" for a new COVID variant of concern before 2027 stems from the absence of any SARS-CoV-2 lineage meeting WHO or ECDC VOC criteria since early 2023, even as subvariants like BA.3.2, NB.1.8.1, and XFG continue to circulate and receive VUM or VOI designations through mid-2026. Ongoing genomic surveillance shows stable or declining prevalence of monitored strains, with no evidence of substantially increased severity, transmissibility, or immune escape that would trigger reclassification. Widespread population immunity from prior infections and updated vaccines further dampens the likelihood of rapid escalation. A realistic shift could occur only if a highly divergent lineage emerges with documented public health impacts, such as elevated hospitalizations or vaccine evasion, before year-end 2026.