The Supreme Court’s 6-3 June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara reaffirmed birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the administration’s executive order. President Trump publicly vowed on July 8 to seek immediate rehearing, yet the 25-day filing window closed without any petition appearing on the docket. Supreme Court rules make rehearings exceptionally rare, with none granted after full argument since 1965. These procedural and historical barriers explain the 96.8% implied probability that the Court will not grant rehearing by year-end. Late procedural maneuvers or an unforeseen docket development remain theoretically possible but face steep institutional and timing hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court’s 6-3 June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara reaffirmed birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the administration’s executive order. President Trump publicly vowed on July 8 to seek immediate rehearing, yet the 25-day filing window closed without any petition appearing on the docket. Supreme Court rules make rehearings exceptionally rare, with none granted after full argument since 1965. These procedural and historical barriers explain the 96.8% implied probability that the Court will not grant rehearing by year-end. Late procedural maneuvers or an unforeseen docket development remain theoretically possible but face steep institutional and timing hurdles.
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,719End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court’s 6-3 June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara reaffirmed birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the administration’s executive order. President Trump publicly vowed on July 8 to seek immediate rehearing, yet the 25-day filing window closed without any petition appearing on the docket. Supreme Court rules make rehearings exceptionally rare, with none granted after full argument since 1965. These procedural and historical barriers explain the 96.8% implied probability that the Court will not grant rehearing by year-end. Late procedural maneuvers or an unforeseen docket development remain theoretically possible but face steep institutional and timing hurdles.
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,719End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court’s 6-3 June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara reaffirmed birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment and rejected the administration’s executive order. President Trump publicly vowed on July 8 to seek immediate rehearing, yet the 25-day filing window closed without any petition appearing on the docket. Supreme Court rules make rehearings exceptionally rare, with none granted after full argument since 1965. These procedural and historical barriers explain the 96.8% implied probability that the Court will not grant rehearing by year-end. Late procedural maneuvers or an unforeseen docket development remain theoretically possible but face steep institutional and timing hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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