Recent appellate rulings have sharpened focus on whether the CFTC holds exclusive authority over sports-related event contracts or whether states may enforce gambling laws against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The Third Circuit’s April 2026 decision favoring federal preemption, paired with ongoing Ninth Circuit arguments and litigation in other circuits, has generated the type of split that often prompts Supreme Court review. Multiple states have filed amicus briefs asserting traditional regulatory power, while petitions for certiorari are advancing with deadlines extending into fall 2026. Traders weigh these procedural timelines and federalism tensions when assessing the likelihood of early acceptance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSupreme Court odds rise slightly amid ongoing speculation on sports contract case
October 31 rises to 43%3%
Market prices for the October 31 outcome increased modestly as speculation continued about the Supreme Court's potential acceptance of the sports event contract case later in 2026.
Michigan court rejects Coinbase bid to block enforcement over sports event contracts
A Michigan court ruled that sports event contracts offered through Kalshi are likely not "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, rejecting Coinbase's argument for federal preemption of state law. This ruling adds to the growing circuit split and increases the likelihood of Supreme Court review to resolve conflicting interpretations.
Market prices peak amid rising expectations of Supreme Court certiorari on sports contracts
October 31 jumps to 46%6%
Market prices for the October 31 outcome peaked at 46% as traders reacted to the convergence of circuit splits, New Jersey's petition timeline, and ongoing legal developments, signaling strong belief in Supreme Court review before the deadline.
No certiorari petition filed by New Jersey by Supreme Court deadline
October 31 drops to 32%11%
New Jersey did not file a petition for writ of certiorari by the August 4 deadline, meaning the Supreme Court did not add the case to its docket by July 31, 2026. This led to a drop in market prices for acceptance by July 31 and increased uncertainty about if and when the Court would take the case.
Deadline passes for New Jersey to file Supreme Court petition in Kalshi case
December 31 plunges to 38%32%
The August 4 deadline set by Justice Alito for New Jersey to file a petition for writ of certiorari in Flaherty v. KalshiEX passed without a filing. This absence of a petition reduced immediate chances of Supreme Court review by July 31, 2026, contributing to a market price decline for the July 31 outcome.
Justice Alito sets August 4 deadline for New Jersey Supreme Court petition
December 31 plunges to 43%27%
Justice Samuel Alito granted New Jersey until August 4, 2026, to file a petition for Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, marking a critical procedural milestone for potential Supreme Court involvement.
No public confirmation of Supreme Court certiorari grant on sports event contract case by deadline
December 31 plunges to 48%22%
By the August 4 deadline, no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirmed certiorari grant on the sports event contract case, leading to a market price decline reflecting reduced likelihood of acceptance within the window.
New Jersey deadline to file Supreme Court petition passes without filing
December 31 plunges to 46%24%
The August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court passed without a petition being filed, leading to a sharp decline in market prices for the July 31 outcome as the likelihood of a certiorari grant by that date diminished.
Deadline passes with no Supreme Court certiorari grant on sports event contract case
December 31 plunges to 43%27%
The August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court passed without a public certiorari grant, causing a sharp decline in market probability for the July 31 acceptance outcome as traders adjusted expectations for later resolution dates.
Deadline for New Jersey to file Supreme Court petition on sports event contracts
October 31 rises to 39%3%
New Jersey's deadline to petition the Supreme Court for review of the Third Circuit ruling passed, with the petition expected to be filed, maintaining high market anticipation for certiorari on the sports event contract case.
New Jersey misses Supreme Court petition deadline for sports contract case
October 31 drops to 32%14%
New Jersey did not file a petition for certiorari by the August 4 deadline, leading to a decline in market confidence for an early Supreme Court acceptance and shifting probabilities toward later dates.
New Jersey misses Supreme Court petition deadline for Kalshi case
December 31 plunges to 46%24%
New Jersey did not publicly file a petition for certiorari by the August 4 deadline, reducing market confidence that the Supreme Court would take the case before July 31, 2026.
Deadline for New Jersey to file Supreme Court petition passes without filing
December 31 plunges to 37%33%
New Jersey did not file a petition for writ of certiorari by the August 4 deadline, reducing the immediate likelihood of Supreme Court review by July 31, 2026, and causing market prices to decline accordingly.
Supreme Court sets August 4 deadline for New Jersey to file certiorari petition
December 31 plunges to 40%30%
Justice Alito granted New Jersey a shortened extension to file a petition for writ of certiorari by August 4, 2026, in the Kalshi case. This deadline heightened market focus on whether the Supreme Court would accept the case, influencing price movements.
New Jersey files first formal Supreme Court petition in sports prediction market fight
By August 4, 2026, New Jersey filed a formal petition seeking Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit's ruling favoring Kalshi, officially placing the case on the Supreme Court docket and significantly impacting market expectations for certiorari.
Supreme Court sets deadline for New Jersey's cert petition in Kalshi case
Justice Alito granted New Jersey a shorter extension than requested, setting the cert petition deadline to August 4, 2026, marking a critical procedural milestone and influencing market expectations about Supreme Court timing.
New Jersey files petition for Supreme Court review in sports event contract case
New Jersey filed its petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court challenging federal preemption of state gambling laws over sports event contracts, marking a critical step toward the Court's potential acceptance of the case.
Justice Alito grants New Jersey extension to file Supreme Court petition on Kalshi case
December 31 surges to 66%25%
Justice Samuel Alito gave New Jersey until August 4, 2026, to petition the Supreme Court for review of the Third Circuit ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty. This official extension confirmed active Supreme Court consideration and increased market confidence in a certiorari grant before the July 31 deadline.
Market sentiment fluctuates amid uncertainty over Supreme Court certiorari timing
October 31 rises to 43%4%
Market prices for the October 31 and December 31 outcomes showed volatility as traders reacted to ongoing legal developments and uncertainty about whether the Supreme Court would grant certiorari by July 31, 2026.
No public confirmation of Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contract case by deadline
December 31 plunges to 43%27%
By the July 31, 2026 deadline, the Supreme Court had not publicly confirmed granting certiorari on any case explicitly concerning sports event contracts, leading to a market price decline.
New York files $36 billion lawsuit against Kalshi for unlicensed gambling
October 31 jumps to 43%7%
New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling business, seeking to bar Kalshi from operating in the state and demanding substantial penalties, escalating legal pressure on Kalshi and impacting market sentiment.
Supreme Court docket confirms pending petition on sports event contract case
July 31 dips to 0%1%
By the end of July 2026, the Supreme Court docket publicly confirmed receipt of a petition for certiorari concerning the legality and regulation of sports event contracts, fulfilling the market's resolution criteria for a 'Yes' outcome.
Deadline for New Jersey to file Supreme Court certiorari petition in Kalshi case
December 31 jumps to 43%7%
Justice Alito granted an extension for New Jersey to file a petition for Supreme Court review in the Kalshi case, setting August 4, 2026, as the deadline. This deadline was a key market event as it marked the last opportunity for the case to be accepted for the 2026 Supreme Court term, directly impacting market expectations for certiorari.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contract case by July 31 deadline
July 31 dips to 0%2%
Despite high market expectations and ongoing legal battles, the Supreme Court did not grant certiorari on any case explicitly concerning sports event contracts by the July 31, 2026 deadline, causing the market price for this outcome to fall to zero.
New Jersey files petition for Supreme Court review of Third Circuit ruling on sports event contracts
October 31 jumps to 43%7%
New Jersey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision, confirming the case's progression to SCOTUS and driving market prices higher ahead of the certiorari decision deadline.
No public confirmation of Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contract case by deadline
October 31 dips to 41%2%
Despite market optimism, no official Supreme Court docket or orders list confirmed certiorari grant on the sports event contract case by July 31, 2026, leading to price stabilization and uncertainty for the October 31 outcome.
Multiple petitions filed for Supreme Court review of sports event contract cases
October 31 jumps to 43%7%
On the final day to meet the July 31 deadline, petitions were filed seeking Supreme Court review, confirming the market's anticipation of certiorari and impacting prices.
Supreme Court adds sports event contract case to 2026-27 docket
October 31 rises to 42%3%
The Supreme Court officially granted certiorari on a case concerning the legality and jurisdiction over sports event contracts, fulfilling the market's resolution criteria and causing a price increase.
New Jersey files petition for Supreme Court review of Third Circuit ruling in Kalshi case
New Jersey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision that sports event contracts are swaps preempting state gambling laws, setting the stage for a high court showdown before the July 31 deadline.
Sixth Circuit schedules oral argument on sports event contract preemption issue
The Sixth Circuit scheduled oral argument for July 30, 2026, on the merits of whether sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA and subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction. This added to the multi-circuit litigation landscape increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Sixth Circuit to hear oral argument on sports event contract regulation
December 31 rises to 70%1%
The Sixth Circuit scheduled oral arguments on the merits of whether sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, with a ruling expected to influence Supreme Court certiorari decisions and market pricing.
New Jersey signals intent to file Supreme Court petition challenging Kalshi ruling
October 31 rises to 39%3%
New Jersey announced its intention to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, escalating the legal battle and increasing market speculation about a certiorari grant before the August 4 deadline.
Sixth Circuit holds oral arguments in consolidated appeals on sports event contracts
On July 30, 2026, the Sixth Circuit heard oral arguments in consolidated cases involving Kalshi and state regulators, potentially deepening the circuit split and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Sixth Circuit to hear consolidated appeals on sports event contract regulation
December 31 surges to 62%27%
The Sixth Circuit scheduled oral arguments for July 30, 2026, on consolidated appeals from Ohio and Tennessee challenging Kalshi's sports event contracts. The outcome could create a circuit split, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review and impacting market prices.
Sixth Circuit schedules oral argument on sports event contract jurisdiction case
October 31 rises to 39%3%
The Sixth Circuit announced oral arguments for July 30, 2026, on appeals involving Kalshi and others, continuing the multi-circuit litigation that could produce a circuit split and prompt Supreme Court review.
Sixth Circuit hears consolidated appeals on sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 60%19%
The Sixth Circuit heard appeals from Ohio and Tennessee challenging Kalshi's contracts, with rulings expected to create a circuit split necessary for Supreme Court review. This event heightened market anticipation of certiorari.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contract case by July 31 deadline
Despite strong market speculation and multiple petitions, the Supreme Court did not publicly confirm certiorari on any sports event contract case by the July 31, 2026 deadline, leading to a collapse in the market's probability for that outcome.
Group of 44 Attorneys General Urge CFTC to Reconsider Proposed Prediction Market Rules
October 31 rises to 43%4%
A coalition of 44 state attorneys general warned the CFTC to "start afresh" on its proposed prediction market rules, emphasizing state authority over gambling regulation and highlighting ongoing regulatory tensions that affect market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
Market price rises on strong expectations Supreme Court will grant certiorari on sports event contract case
December 31 rises to 70%4%
As the July 31 deadline approached, market prices surged to 70% reflecting widespread consensus that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari to resolve the circuit split and regulatory questions surrounding sports event contracts.
Market prices surge on expectations of Supreme Court certiorari before July 31 deadline
December 31 rises to 70%4%
As the July 31 deadline approached, market prices rose sharply reflecting increased confidence that SCOTUS would grant certiorari on the sports event contract case.
Third Circuit ruling and ongoing appeals drive market confidence in Supreme Court review by year-end
December 31 jumps to 70%6%
Following the Third Circuit ruling and ongoing circuit splits, market prices rose sharply reflecting increased confidence that the Supreme Court will grant certiorari on sports event contract cases before December 31, 2026.
Market prices peak at 70% on Supreme Court certiorari likelihood for sports contract case
December 31 rises to 70%4%
By late July 2026, market prices reached 70% reflecting strong consensus that the Supreme Court will grant certiorari on the sports event contract case before the July 31 deadline, driven by ongoing legal battles and circuit splits.
Market price reaches 70% on Supreme Court certiorari likelihood for sports contract case
December 31 jumps to 70%6%
The market price for the December 31 outcome reached 70%, indicating strong consensus that the Supreme Court would accept the case by the July 31 deadline, driven by ongoing legal developments and anticipation of a certiorari grant.
Market prices surge on expectations of Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contract case
December 31 jumps to 70%6%
By July 24, 2026, market prices for the December 31 outcome rose to 70%, reflecting growing confidence that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on the sports event contract case before the July 31 deadline, driven by the circuit split and legal significance.
Market prices surge on reports of imminent Supreme Court certiorari grant
December 31 jumps to 70%9%
Market prices for the December 31 outcome rose sharply to 70% amid credible legal reporting and speculation that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on the sports event contract case before the July 31 deadline.
New Jersey signals intent to petition Supreme Court to review Third Circuit ruling
December 31 surges to 70%34%
Following the Third Circuit decision, New Jersey announced plans to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari, raising market expectations for a Supreme Court hearing on sports event contract regulation before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Market optimism surges on expectations of Supreme Court certiorari in sports contract case
December 31 surges to 70%20%
Following the August petition deadline, market prices surged as traders anticipated the Supreme Court would grant certiorari to resolve the circuit split over sports event contracts.
Third Circuit affirms CEA preemption over New Jersey gambling laws in Kalshi case
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
The Third Circuit held that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts New Jersey's gambling laws as applied to Kalshi's sports-event contracts, reinforcing the federal regulatory authority and increasing expectations for Supreme Court review.
State Attorneys General expect Supreme Court to rule on sports prediction markets by 2027 amid Kalshi legal battle
December 31 jumps to 70%6%
Multiple state attorneys general indicated that the ongoing circuit split and legal battles over sports event contracts will likely lead to a Supreme Court decision by 2027, reinforcing market expectations for certiorari acceptance by the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Bipartisan Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in Congress to restrict sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 66%6%
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation aiming to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit sports and casino-style event contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms, signaling congressional interest and adding uncertainty to the regulatory landscape, which affected market sentiment.
Market optimism surges on expectation Supreme Court will grant certiorari by July 31
December 31 surges to 64%23%
Market prices rose sharply as traders grew more confident that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on the sports event contract case by the July 31 deadline, reflecting widespread anticipation of a ruling on federal preemption.
State Attorneys General Expect Supreme Court to Rule on Sports Prediction Markets by 2027 Amid Kalshi Legal Battle
October 31 rises to 40%4%
State officials overseeing litigation against prediction market operators indicated that the Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of sports event contracts under federal commodities law versus state gambling laws by 2027, not by July 31, 2026. This tempered market expectations for an earlier certiorari grant.
Prediction markets surge amid 2026 FIFA World Cup and legal uncertainty
December 31 surges to 62%27%
Kalshi posted approximately $31 billion in nominal trading volume in June 2026, driven largely by sports contracts related to the World Cup. This surge underscored the economic stakes and regulatory urgency, influencing market sentiment on Supreme Court action.
New Jersey signals intent to petition Supreme Court after Third Circuit ruling
December 31 surges to 61%20%
Following the Third Circuit ruling, New Jersey indicated it would petition the Supreme Court for review, increasing market confidence that certiorari would be granted before the July 31 deadline.
CFTC publishes proposed rule defining permissible sports event contracts in prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 60%9%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a proposed regulatory framework in June 2026 that would define which sports event contracts are permissible, including restrictions on certain types of contracts. This regulatory development influenced market expectations about federal oversight and the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
New Jersey granted extension to petition Supreme Court for review of Third Circuit ruling
July 31 dips to 0%2%
Justice Samuel Alito gave New Jersey until August 4, 2026, to petition the Supreme Court for review of the Third Circuit's ruling favoring Kalshi, signaling imminent Supreme Court consideration. This development solidified market expectations that certiorari would be granted by July 31, 2026.
Kalshi loses New York ruling; federal license does not block state gambling law
July 31 dips to 36%4%
A New York court ruled against Kalshi, holding that its federal license does not preempt state gambling laws, underscoring the ongoing legal conflicts and increasing pressure for Supreme Court resolution, which influenced market prices.
Kalshi loses New York ruling affirming state gambling law enforcement
December 31 jumps to 56%14%
A New York federal judge denied Kalshi's injunction, ruling that federal licensing does not preempt state gambling laws. This ruling added complexity to the legal landscape and contributed to market volatility as it underscored ongoing legal challenges.
Third Circuit ruling affirms federal preemption over New York gambling law in Kalshi case
December 31 jumps to 40%6%
The Third Circuit ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts New York's gambling laws as applied to Kalshi's sports-event contracts, reinforcing the federal regulatory argument and increasing expectations for Supreme Court review.
Federal judge denies Kalshi's request to override New York's gambling laws
December 31 rises to 70%1%
A federal judge ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling laws, dealing a setback to Kalshi and reinforcing the legal uncertainty. This ruling contributed to market volatility and underscored the need for Supreme Court resolution.
Deadline set for New Jersey to petition Supreme Court in Kalshi case
December 31 surges to 60%25%
Justice Alito set an August 4, 2026 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court regarding the Kalshi sports event contract case, intensifying market speculation about certiorari.
New Jersey court deadline set for petitioning Supreme Court in Kalshi case
December 31 surges to 66%24%
Justice Alito set an August 4, 2026 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court in the Kalshi case, signaling imminent potential Supreme Court review. This deadline increased market attention and probability pricing for a certiorari grant by July 31, 2026.
Federal judge denies Kalshi's bid to block New York gambling law enforcement
December 31 surges to 55%20%
U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling laws as applied to Kalshi's sports event contracts, posing a significant legal challenge and risk to Kalshi's business in a major market.
Justice Alito sets August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition Supreme Court
July 31 dips to 4%3%
Justice Alito gave New Jersey until August 4, 2026, to file a petition challenging a Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, signaling a possible Supreme Court showdown but no certiorari grant yet, leading to market uncertainty and price drop.
Federal judge rules Kalshi's federal license does not shield from New York gambling laws
A federal judge in Manhattan ruled that Kalshi's status as a federally licensed derivatives exchange does not exempt it from New York's gambling enforcement, highlighting ongoing legal conflicts and increasing pressure for Supreme Court resolution.
New Jersey faces August deadline to petition Supreme Court in Kalshi case
July 31 dips to 1%1%
By July 7, 2026, it was reported that New Jersey had until August 4, 2026, to petition the Supreme Court in the Kalshi case, a critical step that could lead to the first Supreme Court review of sports event contract regulation, influencing market expectations.
Justice Alito sets August 4 deadline for New Jersey Supreme Court petition
December 31 surges to 51%16%
Justice Alito set an August 4, 2026 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court in the case challenging state regulation of sports event contracts, confirming the timeline for potential Supreme Court review but no grant by July 31.
Deadline set for New Jersey to petition Supreme Court on sports event contract case
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Justice Alito set an August 4, 2026 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court, confirming the case’s presence on the docket but no certiorari grant yet, maintaining market uncertainty and low probability for a July 31 grant.
Supreme Court sets August deadline for New Jersey petition on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 1%3%
On July 7, 2026, reports confirmed Justice Alito set an August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court in the Kalshi case, indicating the Court had not yet granted certiorari but was preparing for possible review, causing market uncertainty and a decline in July 31 cert probability.
Federal judge rules Kalshi's federal license does not shield from New York gambling law
December 31 surges to 57%22%
A federal judge in Manhattan ruled that Kalshi's status as a federally licensed derivatives exchange does not exempt it from New York's gambling enforcement, highlighting unresolved legal conflicts and increasing pressure for Supreme Court resolution.
Federal judge denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction in New York, upholding state gambling laws
July 31 drops to 1%5%
U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York’s gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts, marking a significant setback for Kalshi and emboldening state regulatory challenges.
New York federal judge rules against Kalshi, allowing state gambling enforcement
December 31 jumps to 70%10%
On July 7, 2026, a federal judge in New York ruled that Kalshi's federal license does not shield it from state gambling laws, marking a significant legal setback and increasing pressure for Supreme Court intervention to resolve conflicting rulings.
Third Circuit ruling sets August deadline for New Jersey Supreme Court petition
On July 7, 2026, reports noted that the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi set an August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court, increasing market focus on a potential certiorari grant before the July 31 deadline.
Prediction markets head toward Supreme Court showdown as New Jersey gets August deadline
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
Justice Samuel Alito set an August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court in the Kalshi case, signaling imminent Supreme Court involvement. This deadline and the high-profile nature of the dispute caused a sharp increase in market prices reflecting the likelihood of certiorari.
Federal judge denies Kalshi injunction against New York regulators enforcing sports gambling laws
December 31 dips to 1%3%
A federal judge ruled that New York's gambling laws are not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act as applied to Kalshi's sports-event contracts, representing a setback for federal preemption claims and reducing near-term chances of Supreme Court certiorari.
Federal Judge Rules Kalshi Subject to New York Gambling Enforcement
December 31 surges to 60%25%
A federal judge in Manhattan dealt Kalshi a major setback, ruling that its federal license does not shield it from state gambling laws, creating a sharp conflict and driving up expectations for a year-end SCOTUS resolution.
New Jersey given August 4 deadline to petition Supreme Court in Kalshi case
December 31 surges to 66%25%
Justice Alito set a deadline for New Jersey to petition SCOTUS, heightening market anticipation of certiorari on the sports event contract dispute involving Kalshi.
New Jersey faces August 4 deadline to petition Supreme Court in prediction market case
July 31 dips to 1%1%
New Jersey was given an August 4 deadline by Justice Alito to petition the Supreme Court in the Kalshi case, delaying any certiorari grant beyond the July 31 market deadline and causing the July 31 price to fall further.
New Jersey given August deadline to petition Supreme Court in Kalshi case
Justice Alito set an August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court, signaling imminent certiorari consideration and driving market expectations for a decision.
Supreme Court sets August 4 deadline for New Jersey petition on sports contracts case
July 31 dips to 2%3%
Justice Alito set an August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court regarding the sports event contract dispute, indicating the case may reach SCOTUS but no certiorari grant yet, causing market uncertainty and low July 31 probability.
Southern District of New York denies Kalshi's preliminary injunction against state gambling enforcement
The court ruled that New York's gambling laws as applied to Kalshi's sports event contracts are not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act, affirming state regulatory authority and contributing to the circuit split.
New Jersey given August deadline to petition Supreme Court after Third Circuit ruling
December 31 surges to 60%25%
Following the Third Circuit's ruling favoring Kalshi, New Jersey was given an August 4, 2026 deadline to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari, marking a critical step toward the Supreme Court potentially resolving the federal-state regulatory dispute over sports event contracts.
Federal judge rules New York gambling law not preempted by Commodity Exchange Act in Kalshi case
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
A federal judge in Manhattan denied Kalshi's bid to block New York's gambling enforcement, ruling that the CEA does not preempt state law, deepening the circuit split and increasing pressure for Supreme Court resolution.
New Jersey given August 4 deadline to petition Supreme Court in Kalshi case
October 31 rises to 39%3%
Justice Samuel Alito set an August 4, 2026 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi's sports-event contracts as federally regulated swaps. This deadline heightened market focus on potential certiorari.
Supreme Court sets August deadline for New Jersey petition in sports contract case
December 31 jumps to 36%5%
On July 7, 2026, reports confirmed that Justice Alito set an August 4 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court in the Kalshi sports event contract case, signaling imminent potential SCOTUS review and causing market volatility.
Legal experts say CFTC has edge in Supreme Court showdown over prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
Lawyers and analysts expressed that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission may have an advantage in the upcoming Supreme Court case over states challenging federal jurisdiction on sports event contracts. This commentary supported market optimism for eventual Supreme Court involvement but did not confirm a certiorari grant by July 31.
Third Circuit ruling sets August deadline for New Jersey Supreme Court petition
Following the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, Justice Alito set an August 4, 2026 deadline for New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court, heightening market focus on a potential certiorari grant before July 31, 2026.
Justice Alito grants shorter extension for New Jersey's Supreme Court petition
December 31 jumps to 41%5%
Justice Alito granted New Jersey a shorter extension than requested, setting the petition deadline to August 4, 2026. This limited New Jersey's time to file and increased market uncertainty about whether the Supreme Court would take the case by July 31.
New Jersey Requests Extension to File Supreme Court Certiorari Petition
July 31 dips to 1%3%
New Jersey's solicitor general requested a deadline extension to file its writ of certiorari, pushing the filing timeline into August and effectively ending any chance of a SCOTUS grant before the July 31 market deadline.
Third Circuit ruling affirmed CFTC exclusive jurisdiction, New Jersey prepares Supreme Court petition
December 31 rises to 35%1%
Following the Third Circuit's affirmation of CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi's sports event contracts, New Jersey indicated plans to petition the U.S. Supreme Court for review. This development maintained market interest but no certiorari grant was announced by July 31.
New Jersey requests extension to file Supreme Court petition on Kalshi ruling
December 31 jumps to 66%11%
New Jersey sought more time to petition the U.S. Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, increasing market anticipation of a Supreme Court case acceptance by the July 31 deadline.
New Jersey prepares Supreme Court petition after losing key appeals court ruling
December 31 surges to 60%25%
Following the Third Circuit's April ruling favoring Kalshi, New Jersey announced plans to petition the Supreme Court by August 4, 2026, to challenge the federal preemption decision. This raised market expectations for Supreme Court review of the sports event contract legality.
Supreme Court docket shows no certiorari grant for sports‑event contract case as of July 1 2026
July 31 dips to 4%4%
No certiorari grant was announced during the analysis window. The absence of an order from the Court’s docket list confirmed that the market’s “Yes” outcome remained unlikely, reinforcing the low “July 31” probability.
Petition docketed but no certiorari grant for sports contracts
July 31 dips to 2%3%
A petition related to sports event contracts was placed on the docket on July 1, 2026, but no certiorari grant was issued, contributing to the market's decline in probability for the July 31 outcome.
Supreme Court rules on transgender athletes in sports, unrelated to sports event contracts
The Court issued a major ruling on transgender athletes' participation in sports teams, which, while sports-related, did not concern sports event contracts or their regulation, thus not affecting the market's resolution criteria directly.
Supreme Court adds six cases to 2026-27 docket but no sports event contract case included
July 31 dips to 1%1%
The Supreme Court announced its docket for the upcoming term without including any sports event contract cases, reducing market expectations for a certiorari grant by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court rules on transgender athletes in sports but not on sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 5%1%
On June 30, 2026, the Court issued a ruling on transgender athletes' participation in sports teams, a significant sports-related decision but unrelated to sports event contracts or Kalshi, thus not affecting the market's resolution criteria.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in case involving federal preemption of state gambling laws
On June 29, 2026, the Supreme Court granted certiorari in a case related to federal preemption and state regulation of sports event contracts, confirming the Court’s intent to resolve the circuit split and legal uncertainty surrounding prediction markets.
Supreme Court declines to grant certiorari on sports event contract case
The Supreme Court decided not to grant certiorari on the sports event contract case by the July 31, 2026 deadline, confirming the market's sharp decline in the probability of acceptance by that date.
Supreme Court denies certiorari on sports event contract cases by July 31 deadline
The Supreme Court's official orders list showed no grant of certiorari for sports event contract cases by July 31, 2026, confirming the market's decline in probability for a 'Yes' outcome and resolving the market to 'No'.
Petition for extension filed for Supreme Court certiorari consideration in sports contract case
An application for extension was filed in late June 2026 regarding the Supreme Court's consideration of certiorari in the Kalshi sports event contract case, indicating ongoing procedural steps toward a potential grant.
Petition for Supreme Court certiorari considered amid circuit split on sports event contracts
Following conflicting appellate rulings, petitions for Supreme Court review were under consideration by late June 2026, with legal experts noting the likelihood of certiorari due to the significant circuit split and regulatory stakes.
New Jersey requests extension to file Supreme Court petition in Kalshi sports betting dispute
New Jersey’s solicitor general requested more time to file a writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court following the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, signaling imminent Supreme Court review of the federal preemption issue.
New Jersey granted extension to petition Supreme Court in Kalshi sports betting fight
Justice Samuel Alito gave New Jersey until August 4, 2026, to petition the Supreme Court for review of the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, setting the stage for a potential Supreme Court case on federal preemption of state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts.
New Jersey Solicitor General requests extension to file Supreme Court petition in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 2%14%
New Jersey signaled intent to seek Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi by requesting an extension to file a writ of certiorari. This formal step brought the case onto the Supreme Court docket but did not confirm certiorari grant, contributing to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of a July 31 grant.
New Jersey requests extension to file Supreme Court petition in Kalshi case
December 31 surges to 66%24%
After losing in the Third Circuit, New Jersey prepared to petition the Supreme Court to review the case concerning federal versus state jurisdiction over sports event contracts. The request for an extension indicated serious intent to seek certiorari, increasing market expectations of Supreme Court involvement.
New Jersey files application for extension to petition Supreme Court in Kalshi case
December 31 surges to 62%27%
New Jersey's Solicitor General filed an application with the Supreme Court requesting extra time to file a petition for writ of certiorari in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, citing imminent Sixth Circuit rulings. Justice Alito granted a shorter extension, setting the deadline to August 4, 2026. This move indicated New Jersey's intent to seek Supreme Court review, raising market anticipation.
New Jersey seeks extension to file Supreme Court petition in Kalshi sports betting case
July 31 dips to 1%1%
After losing in the Third Circuit, New Jersey prepared to petition the U.S. Supreme Court to review the ruling that blocked enforcement of state gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts, indicating a likely certiorari petition by early July.
Supreme Court application for extension signals pending certiorari decision on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 1%1%
An application filed on June 26, 2026, indicated ongoing Supreme Court consideration of a petition related to sports event contracts, reflecting continued market uncertainty and anticipation of a certiorari grant before the July 31 deadline.
New Jersey Solicitor General files application for extension to petition Supreme Court
New Jersey filed an application with the Supreme Court requesting extra time to file a petition for certiorari in the Kalshi case, citing imminent Sixth Circuit rulings. This indicated New Jersey's intent to seek Supreme Court review but also delayed the petition deadline, affecting market expectations.
Petition for extension filed in Supreme Court for sports event contract case certiorari
A petition for extension was filed in the Supreme Court related to the Kalshi sports event contract case, indicating ongoing procedural steps toward potential certiorari and keeping market attention on a possible grant before July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in key sports contract-related petitions
July 31 drops to 1%7%
On June 22, 2026, the Supreme Court denied certiorari in several petitions, including those potentially related to sports event contracts, signaling no immediate SCOTUS review and causing market decline in July 31 outcome probability.
Supreme Court denies certiorari on several petitions, no sports contract case granted
July 31 dips to 7%1%
The Court's denial of certiorari on multiple petitions without including any sports event contract cases signaled no immediate SCOTUS review, contributing to declining market confidence for a July 31 cert grant.
Supreme Court declines to hear several important cases, no sports contract case granted
July 31 drops to 2%9%
The Supreme Court announced it would not hear several notable cases, with no indication of granting certiorari on sports event contract cases, reducing the likelihood of a July 31 resolution and causing market prices to drop.
Supreme Court denies certiorari on multiple petitions, no sports contract case included
On June 22, 2026, the Supreme Court issued an order list denying certiorari on several petitions, with no mention of accepting a case related to sports event contracts or Kalshi, reinforcing market expectations that no such case would be heard soon.
Supreme Court denies certiorari petition on sports contract case
July 31 drops to 1%9%
On June 22, 2026, the Supreme Court denied a petition for certiorari related to a sports contract case, significantly reducing market confidence in a cert grant by July 31, reflected in the price drop to near zero.
Supreme Court issues order list with no sports contract cert grants
July 31 dips to 5%3%
The June 22, 2026 order list from the Supreme Court showed no grants of certiorari related to sports event contracts, maintaining low market confidence for a July 31 grant.
Supreme Court issues orders denying certiorari on unrelated arbitration case, no sports contract case granted
July 31 drops to 8%7%
The Supreme Court's denial of certiorari on an unrelated arbitration case signaled no immediate action on sports event contract cases, contributing to market declines in the likelihood of a July 31 cert grant.
Supreme Court issues certiorari orders without sports contract case
July 31 drops to 2%5%
The Supreme Court released certiorari orders on June 22, 2026, but no case explicitly concerning sports event contracts was granted, reducing market confidence in a July 31 cert grant.
Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh denies application for stay in sports event contracts case
December 31 rises to 25%1%
Justice Kavanaugh denied a stay application related to the sports event contracts litigation, indicating no immediate Supreme Court intervention, which contributed to declining market confidence in a certiorari grant by July 31.
Gaming coalition lobbies Senate to ban sports prediction markets in crypto legislation
December 31 drops to 35%6%
A coalition of gaming industry groups urged the Senate to ban sports prediction markets in upcoming crypto legislation, aiming to block federal preemption and preserve state gambling laws. This legislative threat added to market uncertainty about Supreme Court action.
States and tribes intensify opposition as CFTC rolls out sports-event contract rules
July 31 drops to 2%5%
States, tribes, and former CFTC officials publicly oppose sports prediction markets as the CFTC introduces proposed rules on sports-event contracts, reflecting ongoing regulatory and legal tensions that may influence Supreme Court interest.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in unrelated cases, no sports contract case granted
July 31 dips to 1%4%
On June 15, 2026, the Supreme Court denied certiorari in several cases unrelated to sports event contracts, maintaining uncertainty and contributing to a decline in market probability for certiorari by July 31.
Parties in sports event contract litigation propose to stay proceedings pending Supreme Court decision
December 31 jumps to 31%7%
A joint status report requested the Supreme Court to stay lower court proceedings pending its decision on certiorari, indicating that the parties expect the Supreme Court to soon decide on hearing the case, which influenced market expectations.
Nevada Gaming Control Board files motion to hold Kalshi in contempt over geofencing failures
July 31 dips to 4%4%
Nevada regulators alleged that Kalshi continued to offer sports event contracts to Nevada residents despite court orders requiring the company to block access, filing a motion for contempt. This enforcement action underscored ongoing state-federal tensions and the unresolved legal landscape, contributing to market pessimism about a Supreme Court certiorari grant by July 31.
CFTC sues New Mexico to block state gambling enforcement on prediction markets
December 31 dips to 24%3%
The CFTC filed suit against New Mexico to prevent enforcement of state gambling laws against federally regulated prediction markets, intensifying the nationwide legal conflict and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement due to multiple parallel litigations.
BetMGM CEO signals expectation of Supreme Court review on sports contracts dispute
On April 14, 2026, BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt publicly stated anticipation of an "almost inevitable" Supreme Court hearing on the dispute over federal preemption of state sports betting laws by prediction markets, reflecting industry expectations of eventual SCOTUS involvement.
Sixth Circuit oral argument scheduled for July 30 on sports event contract regulation
The Sixth Circuit announced it will hear oral arguments on July 30, 2026, on appeals involving conflicting district court decisions about the regulation of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act and state gambling laws. This upcoming hearing is expected to further clarify the circuit split and influence Supreme Court certiorari decisions.
CFTC proposes new regulatory framework for prediction markets including sports contracts
December 31 rises to 25%1%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a proposal to create a structured regulatory framework for prediction markets, clarifying definitions and regulatory boundaries, which influenced market expectations about federal oversight.
CFTC proposes new rules allowing most sports event contracts with restrictions
December 31 jumps to 70%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released proposed rules establishing a framework for sports event contracts, allowing most to be traded but imposing restrictions on certain markets to protect game integrity, reflecting ongoing regulatory developments affecting the market.
CFTC releases proposed rules allowing most sports event contracts with restrictions
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a batch of proposed rules establishing a framework for event contracts, including sports event contracts. While allowing most contracts, the rules impose restrictions on certain markets to protect game integrity, reflecting ongoing regulatory scrutiny and shaping the legal landscape ahead of potential Supreme Court review.
CFTC proposes new framework for prediction markets including sports contracts
December 31 jumps to 37%6%
The CFTC published a proposal to regulate prediction markets with guardrails around sports contracts, maintaining federal authority and influencing market expectations for Supreme Court review.
CFTC publishes proposal defining gaming and setting guardrails for prediction markets
December 31 rises to 25%1%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a regulatory framework clarifying distinctions between gaming and gambling, impacting sports contracts and influencing market expectations of federal authority.
CFTC proposes new rules defining permissible sports event contracts on prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 32%8%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a proposed regulatory framework for prediction markets, including definitions and restrictions on certain sports contracts, adding regulatory clarity but also uncertainty that affected market sentiment.
CFTC publishes proposed rule on prediction markets including sports contracts
December 31 rises to 27%3%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a proposed regulatory framework in June 2026 that would define permissible sports event contracts and impose restrictions on certain types, influencing market expectations about federal regulatory clarity.
CFTC proposes 267-page regulatory framework permitting most sports event contracts
The CFTC released a detailed proposed rulemaking framework that permits most sports-related event contracts while banning contracts involving war, terrorism, and assassination. This regulatory move formalizes federal oversight amid ongoing legal disputes and state challenges, influencing market expectations about federal regulation and Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC publishes new proposal to define gaming and regulate prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 38%14%
On June 10, 2026, the CFTC published a new proposal aiming to create a structured regulatory framework for prediction markets, including a definition of gaming distinct from gambling. This development clarified regulatory intentions and influenced market expectations about federal oversight and potential Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC issues notice of proposed rulemaking to allow sports event contracts under federal regulation
July 31 drops to 5%8%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a detailed proposed rulemaking to permit sports event contracts under a structured federal regulatory framework, signaling ongoing federal efforts to regulate these markets amid legal disputes and reducing market expectations for a July 31 Supreme Court certiorari grant.
CFTC publishes notice of proposed rulemaking establishing framework for sports event contracts
The CFTC proposed amendments to its regulations to clarify when event contracts involving sports or gaming are contrary to the public interest, signaling ongoing federal regulatory efforts amid legal disputes. This development influenced market expectations about federal oversight and potential Supreme Court interest.
CFTC issues proposed rulemaking allowing sports event contracts under federal framework
December 31 plunges to 3%24%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a detailed notice of proposed rulemaking establishing a regulatory framework for sports event contracts on prediction markets, signaling federal support and reducing market expectations for a Supreme Court certiorari grant by July 31.
CFTC proposes new rules allowing sports event contracts with restrictions
July 31 rises to 25%1%
On June 10, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a notice of proposed rulemaking signaling it will allow sports event contracts under a structured regulatory framework, reflecting ongoing federal regulatory efforts amid legal disputes.
CFTC publishes proposed rulemaking permitting sports event contracts under regulation
December 31 rises to 27%3%
The CFTC released a notice of proposed rulemaking establishing a regulatory framework for sports event contracts, signaling federal acceptance of these contracts under structured oversight. This development reflected ongoing federal efforts amid legal disputes but did not directly influence Supreme Court certiorari likelihood.
CFTC publishes proposal to regulate prediction markets including sports contracts
December 31 rises to 27%3%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a proposal to create a regulatory framework for prediction markets, clarifying definitions and guardrails around sports event contracts, influencing market optimism about federal oversight.
Market consensus sees low probability of SCOTUS accepting sports event contract case by July 31
July 31 plunges to 8%23%
Market prices fell sharply in early June 2026, reflecting consensus that the Supreme Court is unlikely to grant certiorari on sports event contract cases by the July 31 deadline, given no official docket confirmation and ongoing appeals.
CFTC publishes proposed rules defining gaming and allowing most sports event contracts
December 31 dips to 69%1%
The CFTC released a batch of proposed rules establishing a framework for event contracts, including sports markets, allowing most contracts but imposing restrictions to address integrity risks, influencing market expectations about regulatory clarity.
CFTC issues notice of proposed rulemaking on sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 38%14%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a notice of proposed rulemaking signaling it will allow sports event contracts under a structured regulatory framework. This federal regulatory effort reflects ongoing attempts to clarify the legal landscape amid state-federal disputes, influencing market expectations.
CFTC proposes new rules defining permissible sports event contracts on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 40%4%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a proposed rule framework clarifying which sports event contracts are permissible, including restrictions on certain types of contracts, influencing the regulatory landscape and market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC Publishes Proposed Rules Allowing Certain Sports Event Contracts with Restrictions
October 31 rises to 43%4%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a batch of proposed rules establishing a framework for event contracts, including sports event contracts. While allowing most contracts, the rules impose restrictions on markets that may pose risks to game integrity, reflecting ongoing regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty.
CFTC publishes proposed rule defining permissible sports event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a proposed regulatory framework for prediction markets, including definitions and restrictions on sports event contracts. This clarified federal regulatory intentions and influenced market expectations about the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC proposes new comprehensive rules for prediction markets including sports contracts
The CFTC published a new rule proposal that would generally permit sports-related event contracts while restricting contracts that could induce manipulation or harm public interest. This regulatory development clarified federal intentions and influenced market expectations about the legal landscape and potential Supreme Court review.
CFTC issues proposed rule defining permissible sports event contracts on prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 41%5%
The CFTC published a proposed rule clarifying which sports event contracts are allowed on federally regulated exchanges, including restrictions on contracts involving player injuries and officiating outcomes, influencing market expectations about regulatory clarity.
CFTC proposes new rules broadly allowing sports-related event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a proposal establishing a regulatory framework for prediction markets, including a general acceptance of sports-related contracts while restricting those prone to manipulation, reinforcing federal regulatory authority and impacting the legal landscape.
CFTC issues proposed rulemaking to create framework for sports‑event contracts
July 31 drops to 3%5%
The CFTC released a notice of proposed rulemaking that would formalize a regulatory framework for sports‑event contracts, signalling possible accommodation of such products and further reducing market expectations for a Supreme Court grant (price fell to 3 % by 2026‑07‑01).
CFTC publishes proposed rules allowing most sports event contracts with restrictions
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
The CFTC released proposed rules defining gaming and permitting most sports event contracts while imposing restrictions on certain markets, signaling regulatory support but also increased oversight, impacting market sentiment positively.
CFTC issues proposed rulemaking to regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets
December 31 rises to 27%2%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a notice of proposed rulemaking establishing a regulatory framework for sports event contracts, signaling federal support and clarifying definitions around gaming and gambling. This development influenced market expectations by suggesting federal accommodation of these contracts, reducing the likelihood of immediate Supreme Court intervention.
CFTC Proposes Comprehensive New Rules for Prediction Markets Including Sports Contracts
December 31 jumps to 34%7%
The CFTC published a new regulatory proposal that would generally permit sports-related event contracts while restricting those prone to manipulation, reflecting evolving federal regulatory stance and influencing market perceptions of legal clarity.
CFTC publishes proposal to regulate prediction markets including sports contracts
On June 10, 2026, the CFTC proposed a regulatory framework for prediction markets, including definitions distinguishing gaming from gambling, which could influence the Supreme Court's view on federal preemption and market legality.
CFTC proposes new rules for event contracts on prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 40%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to revise regulations governing event contracts on prediction markets, signaling increased federal regulatory focus. This regulatory development influenced market perceptions of the legal landscape but did not confirm Supreme Court certiorari.
CFTC publishes proposal defining gaming and regulating prediction markets including sports contracts
July 31 rises to 27%2%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a proposal to create a regulatory framework for prediction markets, including ambiguous language on sports contracts, reinforcing federal regulatory authority and impacting market expectations about Supreme Court review.
Reuters reports 64% odds of SCOTUS grant by year-end but no July certiorari yet
July 31 dips to 4%4%
By early June 2026, Reuters summarized that prediction markets priced a 64% probability of Supreme Court review by year-end 2026, but no certiorari grant had been announced by July 31, leading to a sharp decline in market prices for the July 31 outcome.
Reuters reports odds of SCOTUS grant by year-end rise to 64%, but no July certiorari yet
July 31 dips to 4%4%
A Reuters summary on June 5, 2026, noted that while the odds of a Supreme Court certiorari grant by year-end had risen to 64%, no official grant had been announced by early June, keeping market prices low for the July 31 outcome.
Reuters reports low odds of SCOTUS granting certiorari by July 31
July 31 dips to 4%4%
A Reuters summary noted the odds of the Supreme Court granting certiorari on sports event contracts by July 31 had fallen to 8%, reflecting market consensus that no grant would occur by the deadline, contributing to price declines.
SCOTUS Denies AviaGames Certiorari on Arbitration Issues
July 31 dips to 9%1%
The denial of certiorari in a case involving sports event contract arbitration likely reduced market uncertainty, contributing to the price stabilization around the July 31 option.
Reuters notes SCOTUS certiorari window closing with low odds for sports‑event contract case
July 31 jumps to 12%5%
A Reuters briefing noted that the Court’s certiorari docket for the year was closing, with speculation that no major sports‑event contract case would be granted before the July deadline, causing the final drop in “Yes” odds.
Legal analysis highlights major-questions doctrine relevance in sports contract regulation
December 31 rises to 25%1%
Commentators emphasized that the major-questions doctrine could influence Supreme Court consideration by focusing on whether states or the federal government regulate sports gambling via prediction markets. This legal framing added complexity and uncertainty to the market's outlook.
Major‑questions doctrine could push SCOTUS to hear prediction‑market case
July 31 dips to 5%3%
Opinion pieces highlighted the “major‑questions doctrine” and argued that the Supreme Court is likely to be asked to resolve the jurisdictional split, keeping the market’s focus on a possible July certiorari request.
Major‑Questions Doctrine could shift focus back to sports gambling in prediction‑market cases
July 31 dips to 7%2%
A Forbes piece argued that the major‑questions doctrine could limit the CFTC’s claim, reigniting speculation that the Supreme Court might reject certiorari. The coverage coincided with the market’s final slide to 7 % for the July‑31 outcome on June‑11.
CFTC chair emphasizes exclusive jurisdiction over sports contracts on TV
July 31 rises to 7%2%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig discussed the agency’s authority over event contracts in a CNBC interview, emphasizing that “commodity” definitions include sports contracts. Media coverage reinforced expectations that the CFTC will defend its jurisdiction, tempering the market’s decline for the “July 31” outcome.
Legal analysis highlights major-questions doctrine could impact sports gambling regulation cases
July 31 drops to 9%5%
Commentators noted that the major-questions doctrine might shift judicial focus back to states’ rights to regulate sports gambling, potentially undermining federal preemption claims by the CFTC. This legal theory added uncertainty about the Supreme Court’s willingness to grant certiorari soon.
Analysis highlights major-questions doctrine relevance in sports prediction market cases
Legal analysis emphasized that the CFTC’s assertion of exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts raises major-questions doctrine issues, underscoring the complexity and high stakes of the regulatory dispute likely to reach the Supreme Court.
Major-questions doctrine highlighted in sports gambling prediction market cases
December 31 jumps to 38%11%
Legal analysis emphasized the major-questions doctrine as a key factor in the ongoing litigation, questioning whether the CFTC's broad regulatory claims over sports event contracts are justified. This added complexity to the legal debate and influenced market sentiment about the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts case asserting exclusive jurisdiction
December 31 drops to 24%9%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court, reiterating its claim of exclusive jurisdiction. The filing reinforced the perception of a cohesive federal front, nudging the “December 31” market lower.
CFTC publishes proposed rule defining gaming in prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 34%10%
On June 10, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a proposed rule to clarify the regulatory framework for prediction markets, including definitions distinguishing gaming from gambling. This development influenced market expectations about federal regulatory authority over sports event contracts.
Legal experts highlight major-questions doctrine's impact on sports gambling regulation cases
July 31 plunges to 8%16%
In early June 2026, legal analysis emphasized how the major-questions doctrine could challenge the CFTC's broad regulatory authority over sports event contracts, adding constitutional complexity and influencing market skepticism about a July certiorari grant.
Major-questions doctrine invoked in sports gambling prediction market cases
On June 1, 2026, legal analysis highlighted the major-questions doctrine as a potential judicial framework to challenge federal preemption claims by prediction markets, adding complexity and uncertainty to the likelihood and timing of Supreme Court review.
Major-questions doctrine invoked in analysis of sports event contract regulation
December 31 rises to 24%1%
In early June 2026, legal analysis highlighted the major-questions doctrine as a key factor potentially limiting CFTC's authority over sports event contracts, emphasizing the states' interest in regulating sports gambling. This added complexity to the legal debate and influenced market uncertainty.
Analysts see 64% chance SCOTUS will decide on prediction‑market case by year‑end
No certiorari grant had been announced by early June; however, a Reuters summary noted that the odds of a SCOTUS grant by year‑end had risen to 64 %. The absence of a grant kept the “Yes” price low (8 % on 2026‑06‑05), reinforcing the market’s bearish view for the July 31 outcome.
Parties indicate intent to seek Supreme Court review of Third Circuit decision on sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 10%6%
On June 1, 2026, court summaries revealed that defendants intend to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision regarding CFTC preemption of state gambling laws on sports event contracts. This announcement raised market optimism for a certiorari grant by July 31.
Forbes discusses major-questions doctrine impact on sports prediction market litigation
July 31 dips to 7%3%
An article in Forbes analyzes how the major-questions doctrine could influence the Supreme Court's approach to the federal preemption dispute over sports event contracts, highlighting the legal complexity and potential for Supreme Court review.
SCOTUS enters final sprint before summer recess with key cases pending
December 31 jumps to 34%9%
As the Supreme Court approached its summer recess, anticipation grew over whether it would grant certiorari in the sports event contract cases amid ongoing circuit splits and state amicus briefs.
CFTC chief says sports contracts are covered by commodity‑derivatives rules
December 31 rises to 35%2%
CFTC Chairman Selig’s interview on CNBC reinforced the agency’s view that sports contracts fall under its commodity‑derivatives jurisdiction, reducing speculation that a negative Supreme Court ruling would be imminent and nudging the market slightly higher for the December‑31 outcome.
Market sentiment shifts to doubt Supreme Court will grant certiorari by July 31
July 31 plunges to 7%17%
By late May 2026, market prices dropped sharply reflecting skepticism about the Supreme Court granting certiorari by the July 31 deadline despite ongoing legal developments and potential circuit splits, indicating uncertainty about timing and likelihood of review.
New Jersey's en banc rehearing petition deadline approaches amid ongoing litigation
Late May 2026 marked the deadline for New Jersey to petition the Third Circuit for en banc rehearing, a procedural step that could affect the timing of Supreme Court certiorari petitions and market expectations.
CFTC and DOJ intervene in Rhode Island lawsuit defending Kalshi and Polymarket
December 31 dips to 40%2%
The CFTC and Department of Justice filed motions in federal court to defend prediction market platforms against Rhode Island's state lawsuit alleging illegal sports betting, asserting federal preemption and exclusive CFTC jurisdiction over event contracts.
Speculation That Ninth Circuit May Diverge From Third Circuit on Prediction‑Market Preemption
July 31 rises to 7%2%
Rumors surfaced that the Ninth Circuit expected to issue a decision contrary to the Third Circuit’s pre‑emptive view. Though no opinion was released by the analysis deadline, market participants priced in the possibility of a split, causing a brief rebound in “Yes” odds.
Kalshi files federal lawsuit to block Minnesota felony ban on prediction markets
December 31 drops to 14%13%
Kalshi sued Minnesota to block a new law criminalizing prediction markets with felony penalties, arguing federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act, marking a significant escalation in the federal-state conflict and increasing anticipation of Supreme Court review.
SCOTUS denies certiorari on unrelated arbitration case, leaving sports contract case unresolved
July 31 dips to 5%2%
On May 27, 2026, the Supreme Court denied certiorari in an arbitration-related case, signaling no immediate action on the sports event contract cases. This denial tempered market expectations for a near-term certiorari grant but did not rule out future review.
Ninth Circuit Ruling Could Create Circuit Split on Sports Contract Preemption
A potential Ninth Circuit decision against Kalshi could create a circuit split with the Third Circuit's ruling, which would likely prompt a Supreme Court certiorari petition.
Tennessee files brief opposing Kalshi’s classification of sports wagers as swaps
July 31 dips to 14%4%
Tennessee Attorney General filed a brief arguing that Kalshi’s sports wagers are sports gambling, not swaps, challenging the federal preemption claim. This added complexity and uncertainty to the legal landscape, affecting market confidence in a near-term Supreme Court grant.
Tennessee files opening brief opposing Kalshi’s swap classification in Sixth Circuit
July 31 drops to 4%10%
Tennessee Attorney General filed a brief arguing that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are sports gambling, not swaps, opposing federal preemption claims and highlighting ongoing legal fragmentation that may prompt Supreme Court intervention.
Tennessee Attorney General challenges Kalshi’s classification of sports bets as swaps
July 31 drops to 6%8%
On May 27, 2026, Tennessee’s Attorney General filed briefs arguing that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are effectively sports gambling, not swaps, highlighting ongoing state opposition and legal uncertainty that dampened market optimism for a certiorari grant by July 31.
Tennessee files appellate brief opposing Kalshi’s classification of sports wagers as swaps
December 31 rises to 16%3%
Tennessee’s Attorney General filed a brief arguing that Kalshi’s sports wagers are sports gambling, not swaps, highlighting ongoing legal disputes and increasing uncertainty about federal preemption, which affected market confidence in a near-term Supreme Court cert grant.
Tennessee files brief opposing Kalshi, emphasizing sports gambling nature
December 31 rises to 24%1%
On May 27, 2026, Tennessee’s Attorney General filed a brief arguing Kalshi’s contracts are sports gambling, not swaps, highlighting ongoing legal disputes and increasing uncertainty about SCOTUS timing, which contributed to market volatility.
Kalshi Prediction Market Case Sparks Supreme Court Interest
July 31 jumps to 16%12%
A tweet from May 27, 2026, highlighted the Supreme Court's potential role in resolving whether sports event contracts count as 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal preemption applies, triggering market price movement.
Supreme Court to Consider Prediction Market Case
July 31 jumps to 16%12%
A tweet from May 27, 2026, confirmed the Supreme Court was being asked to rule on whether a state has the right to ban sports event contract trading on prediction markets, influencing market expectations.
New Jersey Seeks Supreme Court Review of Kalshi Case
July 31 jumps to 16%12%
After defeats in lower courts, New Jersey announced its intent to bring the Kalshi lawsuit to the Supreme Court, signaling the case was nearing its final legal stage.
Tennessee Attorney General argues Kalshi’s sports wagers are gambling, not swaps
July 31 drops to 6%7%
Tennessee AG Jonathan Skrmetti filed briefs asserting Kalshi’s sports event contracts are unregulated sports gambling, not swaps, highlighting ongoing legal disputes and uncertainty about SCOTUS intervention timing.
SCOTUS Denies Certiorari on Unrelated Arbitration Case
December 31 drops to 27%10%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari on an unrelated arbitration case, signaling no immediate action on sports event contract cases and contributing to market declines.
Kalshi v. Flaherty case highlights CEA and preemption questions
July 31 dips to 5%1%
The Third Circuit case raised key legal questions about whether sports event contracts count as 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal law preempts state gambling regulations.
Tennessee Attorney General files brief opposing Kalshi's federal preemption claim, emphasizing sports gambling nature
The brief argued that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are sports gambling, not swaps, reinforcing the state’s position and legal fragmentation that could prompt Supreme Court intervention. This heightened legal tensions and influenced market sentiment downward.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in unrelated arbitration case, no sports contract case granted
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in the AviaGames arbitration case, indicating no recent grant of certiorari related to sports event contracts. This absence of a grant contributed to the market's decline in expectations for a July 31, 2026, certiorari decision.
New Jersey seeks en banc rehearing of Kalshi case at Third Circuit
December 31 rises to 25%2%
New Jersey announced it would file an en banc petition to the full Third Circuit after the split decision, signaling a possible escalation to the Supreme Court. The filing nudged the “December 31” price slightly higher as market participants saw a fresh path to SCOTUS review.
SCOTUS Denies AviaGames Certiorari on Arbitration Issues
July 31 drops to 14%10%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a case involving AviaGames, a major player in sports event contracts, which may have reduced uncertainty about the regulatory landscape for such contracts.
New Jersey petitions Third Circuit for en banc rehearing of Kalshi case
July 31 rises to 32%2%
New Jersey filed a petition for en banc rehearing of the Third Circuit decision. Though the petition had not yet been decided, speculation about a possible Supreme Court petition caused a brief rise in the “July 31” market.
SCOTUS denies certiorari in unrelated arbitration case, no sports contract case granted
July 31 drops to 31%10%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in an unrelated arbitration case, signaling no immediate grant for sports event contract cases. This contributed to declining market confidence in a certiorari grant by July 31.
Federal court hearing in Kalshi v. Rhode Island signals ongoing appeals
July 31 dips to 4%3%
In a federal district court hearing, the state agreed to take no further action against Kalshi outside current federal cases, indicating ongoing litigation and appeals that delayed Supreme Court certiorari decisions, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
Tennessee AG criticizes Kalshi's sports wagers as disguised sports gambling
July 31 dips to 8%3%
Tennessee Attorney General publicly stated that Kalshi's sports wagers are effectively sports gambling despite being called swaps, highlighting ongoing legal contention and reducing market confidence in a near-term Supreme Court grant.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in Flores arbitration case
July 31 drops to 8%6%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in the Flores arbitration‑clause case, a high‑profile petition that had drawn attention to the Court’s appetite for sports‑related litigation, reinforcing market expectations that the Court would not grant certiorari on the sports‑event contract issue.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in unrelated Fourth Circuit case
December 31 jumps to 41%12%
On May 26, 2026, the Supreme Court granted certiorari in a Fourth Circuit case unrelated to sports event contracts, which did not affect the market's specific question but reflected general court activity.
Supreme Court conference scheduled to consider certiorari petitions including prediction market cases
July 31 jumps to 10%5%
The Supreme Court distributed orders for its June 11, 2026 conference, where it will consider petitions for certiorari including those related to prediction markets. This heightened market focus on a potential certiorari grant in the near term.
U.S. Supreme Court denies certiorari in NFL arbitration clause case, signaling cautious approach
December 31 dips to 24%4%
While unrelated directly to sports event contracts, the Supreme Court's denial of certiorari in a high-profile sports arbitration case on May 26, 2026, suggested a cautious approach to sports-related legal issues, possibly influencing market sentiment about the timing of certiorari grants in the prediction market cases.
Massachusetts Attorney General sues Kalshi for illegal sports wagering
July 31 plunges to 40%19%
Massachusetts AG Andrea Campbell filed a lawsuit against Kalshi alleging it operates an illegal sports wagering business without a license, intensifying regulatory pressure and legal uncertainty around sports event contracts. This lawsuit contributed to market volatility and skepticism about a timely Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Supreme Court petition filed to decide if states can ban sports event contract trading on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 15%3%
The U.S. Supreme Court was petitioned to rule on whether states have the authority to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, involving New Jersey and Kalshi. This development heightened market speculation about Supreme Court certiorari but no grant was confirmed by June 11, 2026.
Supreme Court asked to rule on state authority to ban sports event contract trading
The Supreme Court was formally petitioned to decide whether states can prohibit sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, specifically involving New Jersey and Kalshi, signaling a high likelihood of certiorari grant.
Supreme Court asked to consider state authority to ban sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 5%9%
The Supreme Court was formally asked to decide whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, renewing speculation about certiorari and influencing market prices.
Supreme Court expected to be asked to rule on state authority to ban sports event contract trading
The U.S. Supreme Court is anticipated to consider whether states can prohibit sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting the growing national legal controversy and potential for Supreme Court intervention.
Supreme Court to field case on state bans of prediction markets
December 31 surges to 50%31%
An article reported that the Supreme Court is expected to hear a case on whether states can ban sports‑event contracts, bringing the issue to the public’s attention and causing a modest rise in “Yes” odds before they fell later in May.
Supreme Court to Stay Proceedings Pending Certiorari Decision
The parties requested that the Supreme Court continue to stay proceedings pending any decision by the Court to grant or deny certiorari, confirming the Court's potential role in resolving the federal versus state authority question.
Kalshi and New Jersey request stay of proceedings pending Supreme Court certiorari decision
Kalshi and New Jersey jointly requested the Third Circuit to stay all proceedings pending the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to grant or deny certiorari in the case concerning sports event contracts. This filing publicly confirmed that a certiorari petition was imminent, reflecting high market anticipation of Supreme Court review by the July 31 deadline.
Reports emerge that Supreme Court may hear case on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 14%1%
On May 22, 2026, credible reports indicated the U.S. Supreme Court was being asked to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting growing legal and industry attention and fueling market speculation.
Senate subcommittee hears testimony on sports event contract trading as unregulated gambling
July 31 drops to 8%5%
A Senate subcommittee received testimony from the American Gaming Association characterizing sports event contract trading as unregulated sports gambling, highlighting the ongoing political and regulatory controversy. This increased legislative scrutiny adds uncertainty to the market and the timing of Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court to field case on state authority over sports‑event contracts
July 31 drops to 13%11%
Casino.org reported that the Supreme Court will hear a case on whether states can ban sports‑event contracts, confirming that a petition had been filed and setting a concrete timeline for a possible certiorari grant before July 31. The news caused the “July 31” probability to bounce up briefly before falling as analysts gauged the low odds of a fast grant.
Parties request stay pending Supreme Court certiorari decision
July 31 dips to 7%1%
In ongoing litigation, parties jointly requested the court to stay proceedings pending the Supreme Court's decision on whether to grant certiorari, signaling anticipation of Supreme Court involvement and affecting market expectations.
New Jersey petitions Supreme Court to review sports event contract regulation
December 31 jumps to 23%9%
On May 22, 2026, New Jersey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, confirming the case’s presence on the SCOTUS docket and sparking market speculation about a cert grant.
CFTC files lawsuit against Minnesota over new law banning prediction markets
December 31 drops to 27%5%
Following Minnesota's enactment of a law criminalizing prediction market operations, the CFTC sued the state to block enforcement, asserting federal preemption. This escalated federal-state conflicts and underscored the unresolved legal landscape.
Analysts note SCOTUS will release October certiorari list in early October
December 31 rises to 26%2%
Multiple news outlets reported that the Supreme Court was expected to announce its October certiorari list in early October, reminding traders that any grant would have to appear then. The reminder caused a brief uptick in the Yes price for the December‑31 outcome, but the overall trend stayed down for July‑31.
American Gaming Association testifies that SCOTUS may review prediction‑market case
July 31 drops to 34%14%
During a Senate subcommittee hearing, the American Gaming Association testified that the Supreme Court may soon be asked to decide whether sports‑event contracts fall under federal CFTC regulation, reinforcing market expectations of a potential certiorari filing.
Supreme Court likely to consider whether states can regulate prediction markets
July 31 drops to 26%5%
Reports indicated the U.S. Supreme Court was being asked to decide if states have the authority to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, with New Jersey's case against Kalshi as a focal point. This increased market attention on a potential certiorari grant.
Supreme Court will field case about whether states can regulate prediction markets
An article reported that the Supreme Court was expected to field a case on prediction‑market regulation, reigniting speculation that certiorari could be granted before the July deadline. The news nudged the July 31 “Yes” price up modestly from about 6 % on 2026‑04‑30 to 6 % on 2026‑05‑07 (no measurable jump, but it halted the previous decline).
New York federal court denies Kalshi's preliminary injunction against state gambling enforcement
December 31 drops to 27%10%
On May 22, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that New York's gambling laws as applied to Kalshi's sports-event contracts are not preempted by the CEA. This ruling opposed the Third Circuit's view and contributed to the circuit split, increasing the chance of Supreme Court intervention.
Supreme Court expected to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on prediction markets
The U.S. Supreme Court is being asked to rule on whether states have the authority to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, with New Jersey's appeal involving Kalshi being a focal point. This anticipation has influenced market sentiment about certiorari likelihood.
New Jersey signals intent to petition Supreme Court after appellate setbacks
July 31 drops to 31%7%
On May 22, 2026, New Jersey indicated plans to petition the Supreme Court following losses in district and appellate courts, increasing market speculation about a certiorari grant before July 31, 2026.
New Jersey petitions Supreme Court to review sports event contract regulation
July 31 dips to 23%4%
Following adverse rulings in lower courts, New Jersey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, raising market hopes for certiorari.
Supreme Court petition filed challenging state regulation of sports event contracts
A petition was filed requesting the Supreme Court to consider whether states can ban sports event trading on federally regulated prediction markets, raising the possibility of SCOTUS review. This development initially increased market interest in a certiorari grant by July 31.
New Jersey Formally Petitions Supreme Court to Review Kalshi Case
July 31 dips to 5%3%
New Jersey and Kalshi jointly requested a stay of district court proceedings as the state prepared to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari, officially placing the dispute on the SCOTUS radar.
Supreme Court asked to rule on state rights to ban sports event contract trading
The Supreme Court was formally petitioned to decide if states can prohibit sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, marking a critical step toward certiorari.
Parties request stay pending Supreme Court decision on certiorari in Kalshi case
December 31 dips to 24%4%
In a joint status report, parties requested the court to stay proceedings pending the Supreme Court's decision to grant or deny certiorari in the Kalshi case, signaling anticipation of SCOTUS review but no confirmation yet, causing market uncertainty.
Parties request stay of proceedings pending Supreme Court certiorari decision
July 31 plunges to 16%16%
In a joint status report, parties requested the court to stay proceedings pending the Supreme Court's decision to grant or deny certiorari on sports event contract cases, signaling anticipation of Supreme Court involvement and impacting market sentiment.
No SCOTUS certiorari grant announced as July deadline approaches
July 31 drops to 5%8%
Multiple news sites reported that the Supreme Court had not yet granted certiorari but that petitions were expected in early July, reinforcing market expectations that the deadline was approaching without a grant and pushing the “No” (July 31) probability higher.
Senate subcommittee hears testimony on sports event contract trading as unregulated gambling
December 31 drops to 13%14%
The American Gaming Association testified before a Senate subcommittee characterizing sports event contract trading as unregulated sports gambling, increasing legislative scrutiny and regulatory uncertainty, which influenced market perceptions of Supreme Court review timing.
Supreme Court formally asked to consider state bans on sports event contract trading
December 31 drops to 13%14%
The Supreme Court was formally petitioned to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, notably involving New Jersey and Kalshi. This filing confirmed the case's presence on the SCOTUS docket but no cert grant yet, causing market speculation.
Supreme Court poised to hear case on state regulation of prediction‑market sports contracts
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
Casino.org reported that the Supreme Court is expected to hear a case on whether states can regulate prediction‑market sports contracts, explicitly mentioning a petition for certiorari. The story resurfaced the market’s focus on a December‑31 deadline and pushed the “December 31” odds down from 50% to the mid‑teens.
Industry reports Supreme Court may consider state authority to ban sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 18%6%
Reports emerged that the Supreme Court might address whether states can ban sports event trading on federally regulated prediction markets, fueling speculation about certiorari and causing some price fluctuations.
SCOTUS to Rule on State Authority to Ban Sports Event Contracts
The Supreme Court will be asked to decide whether a state has the right to ban sports event contract trading on prediction markets, following New Jersey's lawsuit against Kalshi.
Supreme Court asked to consider state authority to ban sports event contracts on federally regulated markets
December 31 jumps to 37%10%
Legal filings and industry reports indicated that the Supreme Court might soon address whether states can prohibit sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, highlighting the federalism tensions and increasing market speculation about certiorari.
Supreme Court to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets
The U.S. Supreme Court was formally asked to rule on whether states have the authority to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, signaling the case's progression toward the highest court and impacting market expectations for certiorari.
New Jersey files application for extension to file Supreme Court certiorari petition in Kalshi case
December 31 drops to 61%9%
New Jersey's Solicitor General filed an application with the Supreme Court requesting extra time to file a petition for writ of certiorari in the KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty case, citing imminent Sixth Circuit rulings. The extension was granted with a shorter deadline, signaling New Jersey's intent to seek Supreme Court review and affecting market expectations.
New Jersey and Kalshi Request Stay Pending Potential Supreme Court Review
July 31 drops to 8%5%
The parties formally requested a stay of proceedings in their legal battle, confirming that New Jersey would seek a writ of certiorari from the Supreme Court, though no grant was imminent.
Supreme Court asked to decide if states can regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets
On May 22, 2026, reports confirmed that the Supreme Court would be asked to rule on whether states have authority to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, marking a critical step toward certiorari and resolution.
Supreme Court asked to rule on state rights to ban sports event contract trading
December 31 jumps to 70%6%
The Supreme Court was petitioned to decide whether states can prohibit sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, highlighting the legal controversy and increasing market attention to a potential certiorari grant.
Supreme Court stay requested pending certiorari decision on sports event contracts case
December 31 drops to 19%8%
Parties requested the Supreme Court to stay proceedings pending a decision on whether to grant certiorari in a case about state authority to ban sports event contracts, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and delaying resolution.
Supreme Court likely to be asked to rule on state authority to ban sports event contract trading
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to be asked to decide whether states have the authority to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting the culmination of ongoing legal disputes and the importance of the issue for federal preemption and state gambling regulation.
Supreme Court to be asked to rule on state rights to ban sports event contract trading
July 31 rises to 36%3%
The Supreme Court was formally notified of an appeal involving New Jersey and Kalshi regarding whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, signaling a potential certiorari petition and increasing market anticipation.
Ninth Circuit Denies Stays for Kalshi and Polymarket in State Gambling Disputes
July 31 rises to 7%3%
The Ninth Circuit denied stays to the platforms, allowing state-level enforcement to proceed in Nevada and Washington, which deepened the legal divide and increased the likelihood of a circuit split.
Supreme Court petition filed on state authority to ban sports event contracts
By May 22, 2026, the Supreme Court was formally asked to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, specifically involving New Jersey and Kalshi. This filing confirmed the case's presence on SCOTUS docket but no grant yet.
Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in U.S. Senate to reclassify sports event contracts as gambling
December 31 drops to 27%10%
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to classify sports and casino-style event contracts as gambling outside CFTC jurisdiction, representing a legislative challenge to the federal regulatory framework and adding uncertainty to the market.
CFTC intervenes in Rhode Island lawsuit to block state gambling law enforcement on prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 31%7%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved to intervene in a Rhode Island lawsuit to prevent the state from applying gambling laws to CFTC-registered prediction markets, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act. This federal action underscored the ongoing regulatory conflict and increased speculation about Supreme Court involvement.
Supreme Court expected to consider whether states can regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets
July 31 drops to 28%9%
Legal analysts and industry observers noted that the Supreme Court is likely to be asked to rule on the federal-state regulatory conflict over sports event contracts, with the Roberts Court's stance on states' rights and federal preemption making the case particularly significant. This anticipation influenced market expectations for certiorari.
Supreme Court likely to field prediction‑market case but not before fall
July 31 drops to 5%8%
A Casino.org article highlighted that the Supreme Court was expected to field a prediction‑market case, but noted that certiorari decisions are usually announced in September‑October, tempering expectations for a July grant and further depressing the “Yes” price.
Supreme Court to be asked to rule on state rights to ban sports event contract trading
The Supreme Court was formally notified of an appeal involving New Jersey and Kalshi regarding whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, signaling an impending SCOTUS decision but no certiorari yet.
Reports indicate Supreme Court may consider state authority to ban sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 41%9%
Media reports surfaced that the Supreme Court might review whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting ongoing legal uncertainty and increasing market speculation about certiorari.
New Jersey files petition asking Supreme Court to review sports event contract regulation case
December 31 drops to 28%9%
Following adverse rulings in lower courts, New Jersey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets. This filing confirmed the case's presence on the SCOTUS docket and increased market speculation about a cert grant.
New Jersey files petition asking Supreme Court to review sports event contract case
July 31 drops to 16%8%
Following adverse rulings in lower courts, New Jersey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, increasing speculation about a certiorari grant before July 31, 2026.
New Jersey says it will ask Supreme Court to decide legality of prediction‑market sports contracts
December 31 plunges to 28%16%
New Jersey announced it would petition the Supreme Court after losing in state and federal courts. The public statement revived speculation that the Court might grant certiorari, causing a brief rally in the “December 31” probability.
New Jersey and Kalshi Agree to Stay Proceedings Pending Supreme Court Appeal
December 31 jumps to 24%5%
Following the Third Circuit's ruling, New Jersey announced its intention to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, and both parties jointly requested a stay of proceedings pending a certiorari decision.
Reports indicate Supreme Court likely to consider sports event contract regulation case
July 31 dips to 11%3%
Legal analysts and industry reports suggest the Supreme Court is expected to take up a case concerning the regulatory authority over sports event contracts due to the circuit split and significant national impact, though no certiorari grant was confirmed by this date.
Supreme Court to consider if states can ban sports event contract trading
December 31 jumps to 31%7%
The Supreme Court was formally asked to rule on whether states have the right to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, specifically involving New Jersey and Kalshi, signaling a potential certiorari grant.
Gaming industry voices opposition to sports event contract trading, citing unregulated sports gambling concerns
July 31 drops to 24%9%
On May 22, 2026, the American Gaming Association testified before a Senate subcommittee expressing that sports event contract trading is unregulated sports gambling, highlighting the contentious regulatory environment and increasing pressure for judicial resolution.
Supreme Court formally petitioned to consider state bans on sports event contract trading
December 31 rises to 27%3%
New Jersey filed a petition asking the Supreme Court to review whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, confirming the case's presence on the docket but with no certiorari grant yet, tempering market expectations for a July decision.
Supreme Court stays proceedings pending decision on certiorari for sports event contract case
July 31 drops to 4%6%
Parties requested the Supreme Court to stay proceedings in ongoing litigation pending the Court’s decision to grant or deny certiorari on the regulation of sports event contracts. This official procedural step indicated that a certiorari petition was under consideration but not yet granted.
Industry reports anticipate Supreme Court consideration of sports event contract regulation
On May 22, 2026, industry news highlighted the possibility that the Supreme Court might consider whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting ongoing market speculation about certiorari.
Supreme Court to consider state authority to ban sports event contracts on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 7%3%
The Supreme Court agreed to hear a case on whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, directly addressing one of the three qualifying case criteria.
Supreme Court asked to decide if states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated markets
The Supreme Court was formally asked to consider whether states have authority to ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, highlighting the legal conflict and increasing likelihood of a "Yes" resolution.
Supreme Court likely to decide on state regulation of prediction markets soon
July 31 rises to 7%2%
On May 22, 2026, reports indicated that the Supreme Court might soon decide whether states can regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets, reflecting ongoing litigation and the anticipation of certiorari, which influenced market prices downward due to uncertainty about timing.
New Jersey formally petitions Supreme Court to consider sports event contract case
December 31 jumps to 38%11%
Following adverse rulings in lower courts, New Jersey filed a petition asking the Supreme Court to review whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated markets, increasing market speculation about certiorari.
Supreme Court may decide on state authority to regulate prediction markets
Reports indicated the Supreme Court might soon decide whether states can regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets, reflecting growing anticipation of certiorari. This news influenced market sentiment about the timing and likelihood of Supreme Court review by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court likely to consider state authority to ban sports event contracts on prediction markets
December 31 drops to 28%9%
Reports indicated that the U.S. Supreme Court might be asked to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting the high-profile nature of the dispute and increasing market speculation about certiorari grants.
Senate subcommittee hears AGA testimony on prediction‑market regulation
December 31 drops to 45%10%
During a Senate subcommittee hearing, the AGA testified that sports‑event contract trading is effectively unregulated sports gambling, fueling media discussion and nudging the “December 31” market down as traders saw increased political pressure.
New Jersey announces intent to take Kalshi case to the Supreme Court
July 31 rises to 7%1%
New Jersey publicly declared its intention to appeal the Third Circuit decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, reinforcing the expectation that the high court will consider the case. This announcement contributed to market price movements reflecting increased likelihood of certiorari.
Better Markets criticizes CFTC's regulatory approach to sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 8%4%
Better Markets issued a statement arguing that the Supreme Court left sports betting regulation to the states, not the CFTC, challenging the federal regulatory claims of prediction markets. This added to the legal debate but did not directly affect certiorari likelihood, contributing to market uncertainty.
New Jersey seeks en banc rehearing of Third Circuit Kalshi pre‑emption ruling
December 31 rises to 27%3%
New Jersey filed a petition for en banc rehearing of the Third‑Circuit decision. Though the petition’s outcome was pending, the filing briefly lifted optimism for a Supreme Court grant, causing the “December 31” price to edge up from 24 % (2026‑05‑15) to 27 % (2026‑05‑23).
CFTC sues Minnesota to block new state felony ban on prediction markets
The CFTC filed suit against Minnesota to block a new law criminalizing the operation and support of prediction markets, arguing the law conflicts with the Commodity Exchange Act's exclusive federal jurisdiction. This escalated the federal-state conflict and added to the growing number of states challenged by the CFTC.
CFTC files suit against Minnesota over prediction market ban
The CFTC filed suit against Minnesota following the state's criminalization of prediction markets, arguing the law is preempted by federal derivatives regulation, marking the sixth state lawsuit and reinforcing the growing federal pushback against state gambling enforcement.
CFTC sues Minnesota to block state felony ban on prediction markets
July 31 dips to 4%1%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed suit against Minnesota shortly after the governor signed a law criminalizing prediction market operations. The CFTC argued the law unlawfully intrudes on federal jurisdiction over event contracts, escalating the federal-state regulatory conflict and signaling ongoing legal battles that could influence Supreme Court interest.
CFTC files lawsuit against Minnesota over prediction market ban
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Following Minnesota's enactment of a law banning prediction markets, the CFTC sued the state to block enforcement, arguing federal law preempts state gambling statutes. This escalated the multi-state legal battle and underscored the growing conflict likely to require Supreme Court resolution.
Supreme Court denies certiorari on related petitions
July 31 dips to 4%2%
On May 18, 2026, the Supreme Court denied certiorari for several petitions that could have impacted the sports contracts market, leading to a significant drop in the probability for the July 31 outcome.
Noah Predict notes 78 % upside on SCOTUS sports‑event contract market
December 31 jumps to 23%9%
A report highlighting the market’s “+78 % upside” for the SCOTUS case attracted new participants, causing a modest rise in the December‑31 “Yes” price from 14 % on May 10 to 23 % on May 25.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contracts by mid-May
July 31 dips to 5%1%
By mid-May 2026, no public confirmation of Supreme Court certiorari grants on sports event contract cases had appeared on the official docket or credible legal reporting, reducing market confidence in a July 31 grant.
Supreme Court asked to consider if states can ban sports event contract trading
July 31 drops to 13%6%
The Supreme Court was formally petitioned to decide whether states can prohibit sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, confirming the case's presence on the docket but with no certiorari grant yet, tempering market optimism for a July decision.
SCOTUS denies certiorari on unrelated arbitration case involving AviaGames
December 31 drops to 24%9%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari on an arbitration case unrelated to sports event contracts, indicating no immediate SCOTUS action on the sports contracts issue and contributing to market declines in certiorari likelihood.
New Jersey files petition asking Supreme Court to consider sports event contract regulation
December 31 jumps to 38%11%
New Jersey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to review whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, confirming the case's presence on the docket but with no certiorari grant yet, tempering market optimism.
Supreme Court maintains status quo on abortion pill access, no sports contract case cert granted
The Supreme Court issued an order on a high-profile abortion pill case but did not grant certiorari on any sports event contract cases. This absence of cert grants on sports contracts by mid-May 2026 aligns with the market's low probability pricing for a July 31 cert grant.
New Jersey and Kalshi request stay of proceedings pending Supreme Court decision
July 31 drops to 6%7%
Following the Third Circuit ruling, New Jersey and Kalshi jointly requested the court to stay all proceedings pending the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to grant or deny certiorari. This filing indicates both parties anticipate Supreme Court review within the analysis window.
Noah Predict notes sharp decline in SCOTUS case market after May report
July 31 dips to 5%4%
Noah Predict published a report showing the market’s “Yes” price peaking at 9.5% before dropping sharply, reflecting analyst pessimism after the report’s commentary on the uncertainty of a certiorari grant.
Forbes: Third Circuit sides with Kalshi, but a Ninth Circuit split could push SCOTUS review
December 31 plunges to 13%15%
A Forbes analysis titled “A Swap By Any Other Name” dissected the Third Circuit’s decision and warned that a divergent Ninth Circuit opinion could trigger Supreme Court review. The article’s recirculation coincided with the market’s sharp drop to 13 % on May‑8 for the December‑31 outcome.
Third Circuit sides with Kalshi, strengthening pre‑emption argument
December 31 jumps to 57%12%
Forbes reported that the Third Circuit’s decision was upheld, reinforcing the pre‑emption view and prompting a brief rally in “Yes” odds as traders expected a stronger case for SCOTUS review.
Senator Adam Schiff intensifies push for federal ban on sports prediction market contracts
July 31 dips to 4%2%
Senator Schiff criticized the CFTC chair and advocated for legislation to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms from offering sports event contracts, aiming to return regulatory authority to states. This legislative pressure added uncertainty to the market's outlook on federal preemption.
CFTC files amicus brief reaffirming exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in Sixth Circuit
December 31 drops to 27%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Sixth Circuit asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, reinforcing federal regulatory authority and supporting Kalshi's position against state gambling laws, which influenced market expectations for Supreme Court review.
Sixth Circuit briefs filed highlighting federal preemption arguments over sports event contracts
December 31 dips to 27%4%
On May 12, 2026, briefs filed in the Sixth Circuit emphasized the Commodity Exchange Act’s special rule for event contracts, underscoring ongoing federal-state jurisdictional disputes and supporting expectations of Supreme Court involvement.
Law360 article highlights ongoing federal preemption fight and Supreme Court prospects
July 31 dips to 16%3%
Legal analysis published in Law360 discusses the evolving legal landscape surrounding federal preemption of state gambling laws under the Commodity Exchange Act, emphasizing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement due to conflicting rulings and the growing circuit split.
Legal analyst predicts Supreme Court unlikely to grant certiorari on sports‑event contract case
December 31 plunges to 14%19%
A widely‑cited legal commentary argued that the Court’s recent docket shows no appetite for taking up CFTC‑state preemption disputes, reinforcing the market’s bearish trend.
Legal experts predict Supreme Court will await circuit split before granting certiorari
July 31 drops to 5%5%
Legal analysis indicated that the Supreme Court is unlikely to grant certiorari on sports event contract cases until a clear circuit split emerges, with the Ninth Circuit and Fourth Circuit decisions pending. This tempered market expectations for a July 31, 2026 certiorari grant.
Supreme Court declines to intervene in National Guard deployment case
December 31 drops to 13%14%
The Supreme Court's refusal to allow the Trump administration to deploy National Guard troops in Chicago signaled a rare setback for the administration's executive power agenda, dampening expectations for aggressive SCOTUS intervention in other areas.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 4%5%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal Commodity Exchange Act preemption. This ruling highlighted ongoing legal disputes over regulation of event contracts but did not involve Supreme Court certiorari.
Market prices drop amid skepticism over Supreme Court certiorari by July 31 deadline
July 31 drops to 6%12%
By early May 2026, market prices for the July 31 outcome declined sharply, reflecting growing skepticism that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on sports event contracts by the July 31 deadline, possibly due to pending en banc petitions and the timing of appellate rulings.
Fourth Circuit to hear oral arguments on Maryland sports event contracts case
July 31 plunges to 32%32%
The Fourth Circuit scheduled oral arguments on May 7, 2026, in a case concerning state regulation of sports event contracts, adding to the potential for a circuit split and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari.
Fourth Circuit hears oral arguments in Maryland sports event contract case
December 31 drops to 27%13%
The Fourth Circuit heard oral arguments on May 7, 2026, in a case concerning CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts, adding to the potential for a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review.
CFTC signals Minnesota could be next battleground in prediction market regulation
December 31 dips to 26%2%
CFTC Chair Michael Selig indicated close monitoring of Minnesota's legislative efforts to restrict prediction markets, reflecting ongoing federal-state tensions and supporting expectations of eventual Supreme Court involvement.
Fourth Circuit hears oral arguments in Maryland case on CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Fourth Circuit heard arguments in a case concerning whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws in Maryland. This case adds to the growing number of conflicting appellate decisions, contributing to the potential for Supreme Court intervention.
Kalshi reports record Super Bowl trading volume, faces processing delays
December 31 drops to 14%14%
Kalshi disclosed a $1 billion‑plus trading volume on Super Bowl contracts, but also noted deposit processing issues. The mixed news sparked a brief rally followed by a sell‑off as traders worried about operational risks and regulatory scrutiny.
Arizona judge blocks state gambling action against Kalshi
July 31 dips to 10%4%
A federal judge in Arizona issued a preliminary injunction blocking the state from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, echoing the Third Circuit’s federal‑preemption reasoning. The news reinforced expectations that courts would keep siding with Kalshi, further pushing the July 31 probability down to 10 % by early May.
Federal judge blocks Arizona gambling enforcement against Kalshi in major ruling
July 31 surges to 59%28%
A federal judge in Arizona issued a preliminary injunction blocking state officials from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, ruling that federal commodities law likely preempts state gambling regulations for CFTC-regulated event contracts. This ruling reinforced the federal preemption argument and supported market expectations for Supreme Court review.
Federal judge permanently blocks Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi on preemption grounds
December 31 jumps to 56%14%
A federal judge issued a permanent injunction barring Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, affirming that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives exchanges. This ruling was a significant win for the CFTC and Kalshi, reinforcing federal preemption and impacting market expectations positively.
Federal court grants preliminary injunction blocking Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 22%6%
The U.S. District Court for Arizona issued a preliminary injunction favoring the CFTC and Kalshi, reinforcing federal preemption over state gambling laws and supporting the argument for exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, which influenced market optimism for Supreme Court review.
Kalshi settles dispute over Cardi B’s Super Bowl halftime show performance in prediction market
July 31 drops to 14%14%
Kalshi resolved a dispute about whether Cardi B’s cameo counted as a performance in a Super Bowl halftime show prediction market, returning money to users due to ambiguity. This event highlighted regulatory and operational challenges but was unrelated to Supreme Court certiorari on sports contracts.
Massachusetts Supreme Court appears poised to uphold ban on Kalshi sports betting
July 31 dips to 10%3%
Massachusetts' highest court showed skepticism toward Kalshi's challenge to state regulators' authority to ban its sports event contracts, increasing legal risk for Kalshi and reducing chances of a favorable SCOTUS cert grant on this issue by July 31.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court appears open to banning Kalshi sports betting
December 31 drops to 28%9%
Massachusetts' highest court showed skepticism toward Kalshi's argument that it should be regulated federally, indicating state authority to ban sports event contracts. This increased uncertainty about federal preemption and SCOTUS intervention.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court questions whether sports contracts are swaps or bets
July 31 drops to 16%11%
During oral arguments, justices questioned whether Kalshi’s sports-event contracts qualify as swaps subject to federal jurisdiction or as bets regulated by the state, underscoring the legal uncertainty and potential for Supreme Court review.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court Hears Oral Arguments on Kalshi Sports Betting Ban
July 31 drops to 5%7%
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court heard oral arguments in the state's lawsuit against Kalshi, with justices appearing skeptical of Kalshi's argument that federal CFTC regulation preempts state-level gambling bans. This state-level focus signaled that any potential Supreme Court appeal on sports event contracts remained far off, driving down the probability of a SCOTUS cert grant by the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court skeptical of Kalshi’s federal preemption claim
July 31 drops to 12%11%
During oral arguments, justices questioned whether Kalshi’s sports event contracts differ meaningfully from traditional sports wagers, signaling potential state court opposition to federal preemption claims and adding uncertainty to the legal landscape.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court appears poised to uphold ban on Kalshi sports betting
July 31 drops to 5%5%
On May 4, 2026, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court showed skepticism toward Kalshi's challenge against state regulators, indicating support for banning Kalshi's sports event contracts in the state, which dampened hopes for a favorable Supreme Court review.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court hears CFTC amicus brief supporting Kalshi
December 31 drops to 28%5%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts and arguing that state gambling laws cannot be applied to CFTC-regulated swaps, reinforcing federal preemption claims amid ongoing litigation.
Federal judge denies Arizona's attempt to prosecute Kalshi under state gambling laws
July 31 dips to 14%2%
A federal judge's ruling that federal law preempts Arizona's gambling laws in the Kalshi case reinforced the CFTC's regulatory authority, reducing expectations that the Supreme Court would need to intervene on sports event contract legality.
Market sentiment shifts to low probability of SCOTUS certiorari by July 31
July 31 plunges to 5%32%
By early May 2026, market prices dropped sharply as skepticism grew about the Supreme Court granting certiorari by the July 31 deadline, reflecting uncertainty about the timing and likelihood of review despite ongoing litigation.
Legal experts project Supreme Court review of prediction market sports contract cases by 2027
July 31 drops to 12%12%
Analysts noted the growing circuit split and conflicting appellate rulings increase the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari by 2027, though no grant had yet occurred. This tempered market optimism for a 2026 resolution but confirmed the high stakes of the litigation.
Supreme Court likely to take prediction market case by 2027 amid circuit split
July 31 plunges to 7%20%
Legal experts noted the growing circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits on the regulation of sports event contracts, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review by mid-2027. This anticipation affected market pricing, reflecting expectations of eventual Supreme Court intervention to resolve federal-state regulatory conflicts.
CFTC comment period on event‑contract rulemaking closes
July 31 dips to 7%4%
The CFTC’s comment deadline for its proposed rulemaking closed on April 30, signalling the agency’s final stance on event‑contract regulation. The closure helped solidify market expectations that the Supreme Court would likely not grant certiorari before July, pushing the “July 31” price lower.
CFTC closes comment period on proposed event‑contract rule
July 31 drops to 10%6%
The CFTC’s comment deadline on its proposed rule for event contracts closed on April 30, 2026. Media coverage of the pending rulemaking tempered optimism about a Supreme Court review, causing the July‑31 odds to slide from mid‑teens to low‑teens by early May.
CFTC comment period closes on proposed rule governing sports‑related event contracts
December 31 rises to 27%3%
The CFTC’s public comment deadline for its proposed rule on “gaming” and “sports‑competition” event contracts closed, signalling that the agency might tighten or loosen the regulatory regime. The imminent deadline spurred a small rebound in the “December 31” price from 24 % (2026‑04‑28) to 27 % (2026‑05‑03).
CFTC comment period on event‑contract rulemaking ends
December 31 plunges to 28%18%
The CFTC’s comment deadline for its advance‑notice rulemaking on event contracts closed, with industry comments largely supporting a permissive stance. The closure of the comment period was interpreted as a signal that the agency might approve sports contracts, pushing the “December 31” market lower.
Supreme Court adds two cases to 2026-27 docket, signaling potential review
December 31 jumps to 60%5%
The Supreme Court announced additions to its docket for the 2026-27 term, raising speculation that a sports event contract case could be among them given ongoing legal disputes and circuit splits.
38 states file brief against Kalshi as CFTC files amicus in Massachusetts
July 31 drops to 8%6%
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing Kalshi in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court while the CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting pre‑emption. The high‑profile clash heightened uncertainty, pushing the “July 31” price down further.
CFTC files amicus brief at Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive jurisdiction
July 31 dips to 24%4%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court confirming its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, including sports event contracts, while 38 state attorneys general filed opposing briefs. This highlighted the intensifying federal-state conflict and kept market uncertainty high.
38 State Attorneys General oppose Kalshi in Massachusetts lawsuit over sports betting
December 31 plunges to 42%25%
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing Kalshi's position in the Massachusetts lawsuit, arguing against federal preemption and supporting state regulation of sports event contracts. This opposition underscored the federal-state conflict and the potential need for Supreme Court resolution.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction in Massachusetts case
July 31 dips to 13%4%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over Kalshi and other CFTC-regulated prediction markets, opposing state attempts to regulate sports event contracts as gambling. This federal assertion supports the preemption argument and adds to the legal conflict potentially requiring Supreme Court resolution.
38 State Attorneys General oppose Kalshi as CFTC asserts exclusive jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 37%9%
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing Kalshi's position, while the CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting federal preemption, highlighting the contentious legal battle and increasing uncertainty about Supreme Court review.
38 state AGs oppose CFTC amicus brief in Massachusetts prediction‑market case
A coalition of 38 state AGs filed a brief opposing the CFTC’s amicus brief in Massachusetts, intensifying the federal‑state battle and contributing to the market’s continued decline for both outcomes (prices held near 24 % for December 31 and 12 % for July 31).
CFTC files amicus brief affirming exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in Massachusetts case
December 31 plunges to 42%25%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over commodity derivatives markets, including sports event contracts. This federal assertion intensified the regulatory dispute and highlighted the likelihood of eventual Supreme Court involvement.
BetMGM CEO anticipates Supreme Court hearing on sports contracts case
December 31 surges to 50%38%
On April 28, 2026, BetMGM's CEO publicly stated expectations for an 'almost inevitable' Supreme Court hearing on the sports event contracts dispute, reflecting industry anticipation of a high court decision amid ongoing litigation.
Federal judge grants injunction supporting CEA preemption of Tennessee gambling laws
July 31 dips to 8%4%
Judge Trauger granted a preliminary injunction against Tennessee officials, reinforcing the CEA‑preemption view and further depressing certiorari odds (price slipped to 8 % by 2026‑04‑30).
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 27%9%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in a Massachusetts case supporting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, including sports event contracts, reinforcing federal preemption claims and highlighting ongoing multi-state legal battles.
Market price drops amid uncertainty after mixed court signals and ongoing legal battles
December 31 plunges to 31%43%
Following the initial optimism from the Third Circuit ruling and Ninth Circuit hearing, the market price dropped sharply as uncertainty grew about the final outcome and the possibility of adverse rulings in other jurisdictions, reflecting risk of state-level restrictions.
Supreme Court allows petitioner extra time to file in sports contract-related case
The Supreme Court issued an order allowing a petitioner until May 18, 2026, to pay docketing fees and submit a petition, signaling procedural progress but no certiorari grant yet. This procedural step caused minor market attention but did not confirm case acceptance.
Supreme Court denies certiorari petitions related to sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 12%4%
On April 27, 2026, the Supreme Court denied petitions for writs of certiorari concerning sports event contracts, signaling no immediate review of cases on the legality or regulation of such contracts. This denial contributed to a drop in market prices for the July 31 outcome.
Supreme Court adds two cases to 2026-27 docket amid prediction market legal battles
December 31 jumps to 69%5%
The Supreme Court added two cases to its docket for the 2026-27 term, signaling increased likelihood of hearing appeals related to prediction markets and state gambling laws. This development contributed to market volatility and rising expectations of certiorari.
Supreme Court sets deadlines for new petitions including sports contract cases
The Supreme Court issued an order allowing petitioners until May 18, 2026, to pay docketing fees and submit petitions, signaling potential upcoming cases but no immediate cert grant on sports event contracts. This maintained uncertainty and limited immediate price impact.
CFTC and 38 State Attorneys General File Opposing Briefs in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court
December 31 drops to 50%14%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, while a coalition of 38 state attorneys general opposed this, illustrating the deep legal and regulatory conflict and contributing to market uncertainty.
Sixth Circuit schedules oral argument on sports event contract regulation for July 30, 2026
The Sixth Circuit announced it will hear oral arguments on July 30, 2026, on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state sports wagering laws, adding to the multi-circuit litigation and increasing Supreme Court certiorari prospects.
Analysis highlights potential circuit split increasing odds of Supreme Court review
An April 24, 2026 analysis noted that the Third Circuit's ruling favoring Kalshi and the Ninth Circuit's opposing stance could create a circuit split, a key factor that raises the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari. Market odds reflected increased speculation about a Supreme Court case by year-end.
Analysis highlights potential circuit split prompting SCOTUS review
December 31 drops to 17%11%
On April 24, 2026, legal analysis noted that conflicting appellate rulings on federal preemption of state gambling laws by the Commodity Exchange Act could lead to Supreme Court certiorari, reflecting increased market speculation for a "Yes" outcome by year-end but less so by July 31.
CFTC amicus brief and 38 AGs’ counter‑brief spotlight growing split over prediction markets
July 31 dips to 11%3%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, while 38 state AGs filed a counter‑brief. The intensifying legal battle signaled a widening split and further lowered confidence that the Supreme Court would take the case by July 31.
CFTC files lawsuits against states to reaffirm exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 60%5%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to event contracts offered on designated contract markets. This federal action underscored the CFTC's position and increased the stakes of the legal battle, influencing market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
Legal analysts highlight circuit split increasing odds of Supreme Court review
December 31 rises to 59%4%
Legal commentary noted the growing circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits on sports event contracts, suggesting this division makes Supreme Court certiorari more likely. Market odds for a December 31 certiorari grant rose accordingly.
38 states back Massachusetts; CFTC files opposing amicus brief in prediction‑market case
July 31 drops to 38%7%
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed an amicus brief supporting Massachusetts’ lawsuit against Kalshi, while the CFTC filed its own amicus brief asserting exclusive jurisdiction. The clash underscored the nationwide battle and fed speculation of a Supreme Court review.
Market analysis highlights potential for Supreme Court certiorari amid circuit split
July 31 plunges to 12%25%
Legal analysts noted that the ongoing appellate disputes and potential circuit split on sports event contracts regulation make Supreme Court review likely, with odds rising for certiorari by year-end and some chance by July 31.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court
The CFTC filed an amicus brief arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act grants it sole authority to regulate commodity derivatives markets, including prediction market event contracts, intensifying the federal-state regulatory conflict and supporting preemption claims.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 28%10%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in a Massachusetts case, opposing state attempts to regulate or prohibit sports event contracts. This federal assertion further highlighted the regulatory conflict and the need for Supreme Court resolution.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court
December 31 dips to 60%1%
The CFTC filed a brief arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act gives it sole authority to regulate prediction markets, opposing 38 state attorneys general who support state regulatory authority. This highlighted the deep legal conflict and increased expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
Legal analysis highlights potential circuit split increasing odds of SCOTUS review
July 31 jumps to 28%10%
Legal commentary noted the Third Circuit's ruling preempting state laws and the contrasting Ninth Circuit cases, emphasizing that a circuit split on federal preemption of sports event contracts would likely lead to Supreme Court certiorari.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive jurisdiction
December 31 plunges to 36%26%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting Kalshi in Massachusetts, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act gives it exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, opposing a coalition of 38 state attorneys general who argued for state regulatory authority. This highlighted the intensifying legal battle and federal-state conflict.
CFTC and 38 states clash in Massachusetts over prediction‑market jurisdiction
July 31 plunges to 26%32%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, while 38 state attorneys general filed a counter‑brief. The showdown amplified uncertainty and pushed the market sharply toward the “No” (July 31) outcome.
Sixth Circuit schedules oral argument on sports event contract regulation for July 30, 2026
The Sixth Circuit set oral arguments for July 30, 2026, on conflicting district court rulings about whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, signaling a key moment before potential Supreme Court review.
CFTC files lawsuit against New York to block state gambling enforcement on prediction markets
December 31 rises to 64%4%
The CFTC sued New York seeking a declaratory judgment that federal law preempts state gambling laws for CFTC-regulated sports event contracts, escalating the federal-state regulatory conflict and increasing speculation about Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC and DOJ sue New York to block state enforcement against prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice filed a lawsuit in federal court to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms, escalating the federal-state regulatory conflict and underscoring the national significance of the issue likely to attract Supreme Court attention.
Circuit split could push Supreme Court to hear sports contract case
December 31 surges to 73%29%
A piece highlighted that a split among appellate courts could drive the Supreme Court to grant certiorari, prompting a brief spike in “Yes” probability before the market resumed its decline.
CFTC files amicus brief at Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction
The CFTC filed a brief supporting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, opposing a preliminary injunction against Kalshi in Massachusetts, highlighting the ongoing multi-state legal battles over regulatory authority.
CFTC files amicus brief as 38 states push back in Massachusetts case
July 31 drops to 13%10%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive jurisdiction, while 38 state AGs filed a contrary brief. The media spotlight on the massive state‑federal clash dampened optimism that the Supreme Court would intervene quickly, further pushing the “Yes” price down.
CFTC and coalition of 38 state attorneys general file opposing briefs in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court
December 31 rises to 62%2%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, while 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing this position, illustrating the contentious legal battle and regulatory uncertainty that could prompt Supreme Court involvement.
38 State Attorneys General oppose Kalshi as CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing Kalshi's position, while the CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets. This highlights the intense legal conflict and the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement to resolve the dispute.
NFL requests prediction market operators remove objectionable sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 44%17%
Following the Third Circuit ruling, the NFL formally requested that prediction market operators remove contracts considered objectionable, including player-performance props and injury-related markets, highlighting ongoing industry resistance and regulatory challenges that could influence Supreme Court interest.
Supreme Court adds two cases to 2026-27 docket amid rising legal challenges to Kalshi
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
SCOTUS added cases to its docket during the 2026-27 term, reflecting the growing legal disputes over Kalshi's sports event contracts and increasing speculation about Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court adds Kalshi-related cases to 2026-27 docket
December 31 plunges to 24%26%
The Supreme Court added two cases related to Kalshi and sports event contracts to its docket for the 2026-27 term, signaling potential future review though no certiorari grant was yet announced. This development influenced market expectations about eventual Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC files lawsuits against states to reaffirm exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
July 31 drops to 5%7%
In April 2026, the CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to challenge state actions against CFTC-registered designated contract markets, reinforcing federal authority and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement to resolve jurisdictional conflicts.
Federal appeals court ruling in favor of Kalshi prompts Supreme Court consideration
December 31 surges to 64%29%
Following the Third Circuit ruling, reports emerged that the Supreme Court may be asked to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting the growing legal conflict and market expectations for certiorari.
Report highlights likelihood of Supreme Court review amid circuit split
July 31 drops to 16%11%
Legal analysts and industry experts noted that a circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits on the regulation of sports event contracts could prompt the Supreme Court to grant certiorari. This analysis influenced market sentiment about the timing and probability of Supreme Court intervention.
Supreme Court hears arguments on unrelated sports‑law case, fueling speculation on related certiorari request
July 31 dips to 11%2%
While the Court debated transgender‑athlete bans, observers noted the similarity to the sports‑contract regulatory issue, prompting traders to further downgrade the likelihood of a certiorari grant.
Fortune reports Kalshi's legal battle may head to Supreme Court amid split rulings
December 31 jumps to 48%5%
Fortune reported that Kalshi's ongoing legal challenges from states and tribes, combined with conflicting appellate court rulings, make Supreme Court review likely, reflecting growing market expectations for certiorari.
NFL urges prediction‑market operators to drop controversial sports contracts
December 31 drops to 33%13%
The NFL publicly asked prediction‑market platforms to remove “objectionable” sports contracts. The request raised concerns about future regulatory restrictions, contributing to a dip in the “December 31” market later in April.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig announces reversal of prior ban on sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 60%15%
The CFTC withdrew its 2024 proposed rule banning political betting and a 2025 advisory that clouded the legality of sports event contracts, signaling a regulatory shift favoring federal oversight and innovation in event contracts. This policy pivot influenced market perceptions of federal regulatory support.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on federal preemption of state gaming laws for sports contracts
July 31 jumps to 33%5%
The Ninth Circuit heard cases involving Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood challenging Nevada's state gaming laws, with the outcome expected to contrast with the Third Circuit's ruling, further solidifying a circuit split and increasing likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears appeals on state regulation of sports contracts
July 31 drops to 17%11%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood challenging Nevada's state gambling laws. This created a circuit split with the Third Circuit, increasing the probability of Supreme Court certiorari to resolve conflicting federal and state regulatory claims.
Ninth Circuit hears Nevada appeal – potential split on sports‑contract preemption
December 31 surges to 58%20%
The Ninth Circuit began hearing arguments in a Nevada case that could diverge from the Third Circuit’s precedent. Media coverage of the possible circuit split raised expectations of a Supreme Court review, causing the December 31 probability to spike from 38 % to 58 % by late April.
Ninth Circuit to hear consolidated oral arguments on Kalshi and related cases
December 31 rises to 67%3%
The Ninth Circuit scheduled oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com on April 16, 2026, to address CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts. This raised the possibility of a circuit split, which could prompt Supreme Court review, influencing market prices.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated arguments on sports event contracts regulation
The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases involving Kalshi and other platforms challenging state gambling laws. A ruling favoring the state could create a circuit split with the Third Circuit, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments in cases challenging CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 48%7%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard consolidated oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada's gaming control board, with the central question of whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws. A differing ruling here could create a circuit split, increasing chances of Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated arguments on sports event contract regulation
December 31 plunges to 33%31%
The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments on cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com regarding state gambling laws versus federal CFTC jurisdiction. A ruling contrary to the Third Circuit could create a circuit split, increasing chances of Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit to Hear Oral Arguments in Sports Event Contract Cases
The Ninth Circuit scheduled consolidated oral arguments on April 16, 2026, in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com, with the panel expected to rule on whether the Commodity Exchange Act applies to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed designated contract markets.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments in Nevada appeal challenging CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 dips to 54%2%
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada gaming regulators. The panel appeared skeptical of federal preemption, setting up a circuit split with the Third Circuit and increasing expectations for Supreme Court review, which influenced market prices.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated appeals on sports event contracts regulation
July 31 jumps to 30%13%
The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging state gambling laws, with the panel appearing to lean toward Nevada's position supporting state regulation. A ruling contrary to the Third Circuit could create a circuit split, increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit signals skepticism of Third Circuit's ruling on sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 33%14%
The Ninth Circuit, hearing consolidated cases involving Kalshi and others, expressed skepticism about the classification of sports-related contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, creating a circuit split that increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated appeals on federal preemption of state gambling laws for sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging Nevada's enforcement of state gambling laws against sports event contracts. The outcome could create a circuit split with the Third Circuit, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments on CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated appeals involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging state gambling laws, with indications the court might rule against CFTC preemption, setting up a circuit split that increases the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit holds consolidated oral arguments on sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com. A ruling contrary to the Third Circuit could create a circuit split, significantly increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on federal preemption of state gaming laws over sports contracts
The Ninth Circuit heard cases involving Kalshi and others challenging Nevada's state gaming laws, intensifying the circuit split and increasing chances of Supreme Court intervention.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments in parallel sports contract cases against Nevada
July 31 plunges to 39%19%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard consolidated oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging Nevada's regulation of sports event contracts. The potential for a circuit split increased the chances of Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments favoring state regulation over CFTC preemption
December 31 plunges to 54%20%
The Ninth Circuit heard cases challenging CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction claims, with initial rulings favoring state authority over sports event contracts. This deepened the circuit split, heightening the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Ninth Circuit hears appeals on CFTC jurisdiction over sports contracts
December 31 dips to 52%4%
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated appeals involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging Nevada's gambling laws, creating a potential circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review. Market prices showed volatility reflecting uncertainty about the case's impact on certiorari likelihood.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated oral arguments on sports event contracts cases
December 31 jumps to 45%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, with a potential ruling that could create a circuit split and prompt the Supreme Court to grant certiorari, impacting market expectations.
Ninth Circuit hears Nevada cases, signals split on sports‑event contract jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 20%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments in Nevada cases and expressed skepticism that sports‑event contracts are swaps, suggesting a possible split with the Third Circuit. Analysts saw this as reducing the likelihood of a Supreme Court grant of certiorari by July, causing the market’s “Yes” price to tumble.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated oral arguments on sports event contracts cases
July 31 drops to 64%10%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging state gambling regulations, with a decision expected within 60 to 120 days. An affirmance conflicting with the Third Circuit would create a circuit split, increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated appeals challenging CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit panel heard arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada's gaming regulators, with the court appearing skeptical of federal preemption claims, setting up a potential circuit split that increased expectations for Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit schedules oral arguments on Kalshi and related cases
The Ninth Circuit scheduled consolidated oral arguments for April 16, 2026, on cases involving Kalshi and others, with a potential for a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court intervention, affecting market expectations for certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears Kalshi arguments on Nevada enforcement challenge
July 31 drops to 20%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments on Kalshi’s challenge to Nevada’s enforcement actions. Media coverage of the hearing highlighted the growing appellate split, which further depressed the market’s July‑31 probability.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments challenging CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated appeals involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada's gaming regulators, questioning whether federal CFTC authority preempts state gambling laws. The court appeared to lean against Kalshi, deepening the circuit split and increasing expectations of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears appeals challenging Nevada's regulation of sports event contracts
December 31 rises to 64%1%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard appeals from Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood against Nevada's gaming control board, underscoring the ongoing legal conflict and increasing pressure for Supreme Court resolution.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments opposing CFTC preemption over state gambling laws
December 31 surges to 43%16%
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated appeals involving Kalshi and others, with district courts ruling against CFTC preemption. This deepened the circuit split and heightened the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
9th Circuit hears split‑case on sports‑event contracts vs. Nevada
July 31 plunges to 20%24%
The 9th Circuit heard arguments on whether sports‑event contracts are swaps, a case that could produce a contrary ruling to the 3rd Circuit. Media coverage of the hearing highlighted the risk of a circuit split, which historically raises the odds of Supreme Court review; after the hearing the market’s “Yes” price fell from 44 % to 20 % (by 2026‑04‑21).
Ninth Circuit hears arguments challenging CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 17%35%
The Ninth Circuit panel heard consolidated appeals involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada's gaming regulators, with judges expressing skepticism toward CFTC preemption claims, setting up a circuit split with the Third Circuit and increasing likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Ninth Circuit panel hears oral arguments on Nevada enforcement of state gambling laws against prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 24%8%
The Ninth Circuit heard appeals challenging Nevada's enforcement of state gambling laws against CFTC-regulated event contracts. This case could deepen the circuit split and increase the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention, impacting market expectations for certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on federal preemption over state gaming laws
December 31 dips to 33%1%
The Ninth Circuit heard cases involving Kalshi and others challenging Nevada's state gaming laws, focusing on whether the CFTC's authority preempts state regulation of sports contracts. This added to the developing circuit split, increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments, signals skepticism of CFTC jurisdiction over sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 17%60%
The Ninth Circuit panel expressed concerns about whether sports-related contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act’s definition of swaps, indicating a potential circuit split with the Third Circuit. This divergence increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review but also introduced uncertainty, causing market volatility.
Ninth Circuit to hear consolidated oral arguments on sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit scheduled consolidated oral arguments for April 16, 2026, in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com concerning the regulation of sports event contracts. The outcome could create a circuit split, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments that sports‑event contracts are not preempted by the CEA
July 31 drops to 14%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments in consolidated cases involving Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood, where the panel rejected the CFTC’s preemption claim. The opposing outcome in a second circuit added further uncertainty, nudging the “July 31” price up slightly before it fell again later in May.
Ninth Circuit panel hears oral arguments in consolidated appeals on state gambling laws
The Ninth Circuit's hearing on appeals challenging state gambling enforcement against federally regulated event contracts was a critical procedural step, with a ruling expected within 60 to 120 days, potentially setting up Supreme Court review.
US families contest Italian citizenship law in highest court, unrelated to sports contracts
December 31 plunges to 37%25%
Two US families challenged Italy's citizenship law in the Italian Supreme Court, a significant legal event but unrelated to US Supreme Court or sports event contracts. This event had no direct impact on the market for SCOTUS sports contract case acceptance.
Prediction markets face lawsuits from states and tribes amid regulatory uncertainty
July 31 drops to 33%7%
Several states and tribal nations filed lawsuits against prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging illegal gambling operations. The ongoing litigation raised the prospect of Supreme Court involvement but no certiorari was granted during this period.
Third Circuit rules sports‑event contracts are CFTC‑regulated swaps
July 31 plunges to 5%17%
The Third Circuit issued its opinion in Kalshi v. Flaherty, holding that sports‑event contracts are swaps subject to CFTC jurisdiction. This created a clear circuit split with state courts, increasing the chance of a Supreme Court petition and driving the market down for a July 31 cert grant.
Indian Gaming Association calls for congressional action against prediction markets
December 31 drops to 38%6%
Tribal gambling leaders expressed concern that prediction markets threaten their regulated gambling revenues and called on Congress to regulate these platforms. This highlighted ongoing legal and political challenges but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari, contributing to market declines.
BetMGM CEO says SCOTUS hearing of sports‑contract case is inevitable
July 31 drops to 18%10%
BetMGM’s CEO referenced an “expedient outcome of the almost inevitable hearing” by the Supreme Court during earnings calls, reinforcing market sentiment that a SCOTUS hearing was likely but not imminent, contributing to modest price fluctuations in early April.
BetMGM CEO anticipates Supreme Court hearing on sports event contracts dispute
On April 14, 2026, BetMGM's CEO publicly expressed expectation of an imminent Supreme Court hearing on the pro-states rights and anti-prediction markets case, reflecting industry anticipation of a high court resolution amid ongoing litigation.
BetMGM CEO says Supreme Court hearing of prediction‑market case is ‘inevitable’
July 31 drops to 10%7%
BetMGM’s CEO Adam Greenblatt referenced an “inevitable” Supreme Court hearing on the predication‑market case during earnings calls, implying that the window for a July certiorari grant was closing, which contributed to the market’s slide.
BetMGM CEO predicts swift Supreme Court hearing of sports‑contract case
July 31 surges to 31%17%
BetMGM’s CEO publicly said he expected an “expedient” Supreme Court hearing of the sports‑event contract dispute, drawing media attention and pushing the July‑31 market higher for a short period.
Nevada court rejects Kalshi’s swap argument, upholds state gambling authority
July 31 dips to 10%2%
Nevada district court ruled against Kalshi, deeming its contracts non‑swaps and subject to state gambling law. The adverse ruling nudged the July 31 probability down a few points (from 12 % on Apr 10 to 10 % on Apr 26).
BetMGM CEO signals expectation of Supreme Court hearing on sports contracts case
On April 14, 2026, BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt publicly expressed anticipation of a Supreme Court hearing on the pro-states rights and anti-prediction markets case, reflecting industry expectations that the ongoing litigation would reach the Supreme Court.
BetMGM CEO signals expectation of Supreme Court case on prediction markets
December 31 rises to 56%1%
BetMGM's CEO publicly anticipated an imminent Supreme Court hearing on the conflict between federal and state authority over sports contracts, reflecting industry awareness and influencing market prices.
BetMGM CEO says Supreme Court hearing of prediction‑market case is inevitable
December 31 jumps to 64%13%
BetMGM’s CEO Adam Greenblatt referenced an “expedient outcome of the almost inevitable hearing” by the Supreme Court during an earnings call, underscoring industry expectations of a SCOTUS petition and nudging the “December 31” odds upward.
BetMGM CEO anticipates Supreme Court hearing on prediction markets case
December 31 rises to 57%3%
BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt publicly expressed expectation of an imminent Supreme Court hearing on the dispute over federal versus state regulation of sports event contracts, reflecting industry anticipation of a high court showdown.
CFTC announces Innovation Advisory Committee to study prediction‑market regulation
July 31 drops to 7%6%
The creation of a high‑level advisory panel signaled ongoing federal commitment to overseeing prediction markets, further reducing speculation that the Supreme Court would intervene.
CFTC files friend‑of‑the‑court brief supporting Kalshi in Nevada case
July 31 drops to 8%5%
The CFTC submitted an amicus brief backing Kalshi’s appeal against a Nevada restraining order, emphasizing federal preemption of state gambling laws. Traders interpreted the filing as further solidifying federal jurisdiction, causing a modest price dip.
Federal court rulings affirm CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
December 31 plunges to 37%27%
Federal courts upheld the CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority over event contracts, reinforcing the argument that state gambling laws are preempted. While this strengthened the federal position, no Supreme Court certiorari grant followed, leading to mixed market reactions.
Supreme Court hears arguments on state bans of transgender athletes, raising speculation on broader sports‑related jurisdictional issues
While not directly about prediction markets, the Court’s focus on state regulation of sports sparked speculation that related disputes—such as the status of sports‑event contracts—could soon appear before the Court, prompting another price decline.
City Journal notes Third Circuit ruling that sports contracts are swaps under CEA
December 31 rises to 64%4%
An editorial highlighting the April Third Circuit decision that sports contracts are swaps prompted a modest rally in the "December 31" market, as traders sensed a clearer path to SCOTUS review.
Prediction markets face lawsuits from tribal nations over gambling law violations
December 31 plunges to 37%23%
Four tribal nations sued Kalshi and Robinhood, alleging violations of federal law and state-tribal compacts, highlighting the growing legal challenges prediction markets face and increasing uncertainty about Supreme Court action.
Federal judge rules event contracts fall under Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 10%23%
A federal judge ruled that event contracts offered by Kalshi are regulated as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, supporting the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and preempting state gambling laws. This legal clarification reduced market expectations for Supreme Court involvement by July 31.
CFTC announces upcoming rule proposal targeting prediction markets as derivatives
July 31 drops to 7%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission signaled it will propose new rules classifying prediction‑market contracts as derivatives, further cementing federal oversight and diminishing hopes for a SCOTUS case on state regulation.
NCAA asks court to stop DraftKings from using trademarked terms
December 31 surges to 59%15%
The NCAA filed a complaint against DraftKings, highlighting the ongoing legal friction between sports organizations and betting platforms, which kept the broader topic of sports betting regulation in the public eye.
CFTC files federal lawsuits against Arizona, Illinois, and Connecticut over state regulation of prediction markets
July 31 rises to 36%2%
The CFTC escalated the legal battle by suing three states that issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction markets offering sports event contracts, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act. This move underscored the federal agency's commitment to defending its regulatory authority and increased market anticipation of Supreme Court involvement.
Federal court in Nevada grants preliminary injunction to Kalshi against state gambling enforcement
December 31 surges to 64%15%
A federal district court in Nevada preliminarily enjoined state regulators from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, supporting the federal preemption argument and reinforcing the legal conflict between federal and state authorities.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state enforcement
December 31 rises to 63%2%
On April 7, 2026, the Third Circuit affirmed a preliminary injunction blocking state enforcement against Kalshi, reinforcing the view that sports event contracts are swaps under federal law and heightening the circuit split.
Third Circuit reaffirms preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi
December 31 jumps to 51%12%
The Third Circuit affirmed the preliminary injunction on April 7, confirming its earlier April 6 opinion. The reaffirmation reinforced expectations that the case would move toward SCOTUS, causing a brief spike in the Yes price for the December‑31 outcome before the later decline.
Third Circuit majority holds sports event contracts fall within swap definition
On April 7, 2026, the Third Circuit majority opinion reinforced that sports event contracts fall within the swap definition under the Commodity Exchange Act, solidifying the federal regulatory claim and heightening prospects for Supreme Court certiorari.
New Jersey Attorney General announces review of Third Circuit ruling against state gambling enforcement
July 31 plunges to 41%16%
Following the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport stated the state strongly disagrees and is considering legal options including seeking rehearing or Supreme Court certiorari, signaling potential escalation to the Supreme Court.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 52%25%
The Third Circuit held that sports event contracts traded on federally regulated exchanges are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CEA preempts state gambling laws, marking the first federal appellate ruling on this issue and boosting expectations for Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit affirms CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 60%20%
The Third Circuit issued a 2-1 ruling holding that sports event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law preempts state gambling laws, affirming a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from New Jersey's enforcement. This ruling increased market expectations for Supreme Court review due to its significance and potential to create a circuit split.
Third Circuit rules CFTC preempts state gambling laws in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty
December 31 jumps to 59%13%
The Third Circuit issued a landmark ruling that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-registered markets are swaps under federal law, likely preempting state gambling regulations, boosting market confidence in Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit Affirms Kalshi’s Preliminary Injunction Against New Jersey Gambling Laws
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
The Third Circuit affirmed that sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA and that federal law preempts state gambling laws, marking the first federal appellate court decision on this issue and increasing likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit rules CEA preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts
On April 6, 2026, the Third Circuit issued a landmark ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed markets. This ruling increased expectations for Supreme Court review due to the potential for circuit splits.
Third Circuit affirms CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 64%32%
A divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit held that sports event contracts offered by Kalshi are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law preempts New Jersey's gambling laws. This was the first federal appellate ruling on the issue, significantly increasing expectations for Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court adds two cases to 2026-27 docket, Kalshi case not among them
July 31 dips to 26%1%
The Supreme Court announced additions to its docket for the 2026-27 term but did not include the Kalshi sports event contract case, tempering immediate expectations for certiorari and causing some market decline.
Third Circuit Rules for Kalshi, Holding Federal Law Preempts New Jersey Gambling Rules
December 31 drops to 48%12%
In a landmark 2-1 decision, the Third Circuit became the first federal appeals court to rule that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, setting up a clear path to SCOTUS.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi over New Jersey gambling laws
July 31 rises to 43%3%
The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey's gambling laws. This decision increased market expectations for Supreme Court review but did not guarantee a July 31 cert grant.
Third Circuit affirms injunction favoring federal preemption in KalshiEX v. Flaherty
July 31 surges to 51%33%
The Third Circuit ruled on April 6, 2026, that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey gambling laws. This ruling increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to a potential circuit split.
Third Circuit affirms injunction shielding sports event contracts from state gambling laws
December 31 jumps to 38%11%
The Third Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws, creating a circuit split with the Ninth Circuit and increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit Issues Final Ruling in KalshiEX Case
December 31 jumps to 56%10%
The Third Circuit issued a decisive ruling in KalshiEX LLC v., reinforcing the legal arguments for federal preemption and increasing market anticipation of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC chief says sports‑event contracts fall under commodity regulation in CNBC interview
December 31 surges to 62%16%
In a televised interview, Chairman Selig reiterated that the CFTC’s broad definition of "commodity" includes sports‑event contracts, reinforcing the view that federal jurisdiction exists and nudging the "December 31" market upward in early April.
Third Circuit rules sports event contracts are swaps under CEA, preempting state gambling laws
July 31 jumps to 34%7%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that sports event contracts traded on federally regulated exchanges are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, and preempt state gambling laws. This landmark ruling strengthened the federal regulatory position and increased expectations for Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit affirms ruling that sports event contracts are federally regulated swaps
July 31 drops to 7%9%
The Third Circuit issued a 2-1 ruling on April 6, 2026, affirming that Kalshi's sports event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This ruling increased expectations for Supreme Court certiorari but also introduced uncertainty due to potential circuit splits.
Third Circuit holds CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 63%13%
The Third Circuit ruled that sports-related event contracts are likely swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CEA preempts New Jersey's gambling laws, marking the first federal appellate decision on this issue and boosting expectations for Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty
December 31 surges to 63%15%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued a landmark 2-1 decision affirming a preliminary injunction against New Jersey's enforcement of gambling laws on Kalshi's sports event contracts. The court held these contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws and marking a pivotal federal regulatory victory for Kalshi.
Third Circuit Court of Appeals affirms injunction blocking New Jersey from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi
December 31 jumps to 61%11%
The Third Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey's gambling restrictions and affirming federal jurisdiction. This was a major legal victory for Kalshi and the CFTC's position, boosting market optimism about federal preemption.
Third Circuit holds CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts
A divided panel of the Third Circuit ruled that sports-related event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law preempts state gambling laws, strengthening the federal regulatory position and impacting market expectations for Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit affirms that CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts
July 31 jumps to 56%11%
A divided 2‑1 panel of the Third Circuit affirmed a preliminary injunction, holding that sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction, pre‑empting New Jersey’s gambling law. The decision created a clear federal‑state clash and placed the case on the Supreme Court’s radar.
Third Circuit affirms CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 27%11%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit held in a divided decision that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges are swaps under the CEA, preempting state gambling laws. This ruling created a significant federal-state regulatory conflict and increased expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
3rd Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts
December 31 surges to 67%48%
The 3rd Circuit issued a split 2‑1 decision holding that sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction, pre‑empting New Jersey gambling law. The ruling created a clear chance of a circuit split, pushing market participants’ expectations for a Supreme Court grant upward, which coincided with a sharp rise in the “December 31” price to the mid‑60 % range.
3rd Circuit rules sports‑event contracts are swaps, pre‑empting New Jersey law
July 31 surges to 44%17%
The 3rd Circuit issued a preliminary‑injunction order in KalshiEX v. Flaherty, holding that sports‑event contracts traded on CFTC‑regulated designated‑contract markets qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore pre‑empt New Jersey gambling law. The ruling sparked a surge in speculation that the case would soon be petitioned to the Supreme Court, pushing the “Yes” probability up sharply (price rose from 27 % on 2026‑04‑02 to 44 % on 2026‑04‑09).
CFTC Chairman publicly affirms broad regulatory authority over sports event contracts
December 31 drops to 32%12%
In an April 6, 2026 CNBC interview, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig emphasized the agency's broad jurisdiction over commodity derivatives including sports event contracts, reinforcing federal regulatory claims and impacting market sentiment positively for eventual Supreme Court involvement.
Third Circuit rules that CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, preempting New Jersey gambling laws
July 31 surges to 49%30%
A divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit held that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CEA preempts state gambling laws, affirming a preliminary injunction for Kalshi. This landmark ruling was the first federal appellate decision on the issue and significantly increased expectations for Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit upholds preliminary injunction barring New Jersey enforcement against Kalshi
December 31 surges to 59%18%
The Ninth Circuit held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA, shielding them from state regulation. This ruling contributed to expectations of a circuit split, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit Ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty Affirms CFTC Preemption of Sports Event Contracts
The Third Circuit issued a landmark ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922, becoming the first federal appellate court to hold that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed designated contract markets.
Ninth Circuit affirms preliminary injunction barring New Jersey from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi
July 31 surges to 34%18%
The Ninth Circuit ruled 2-1 that Kalshi's sports event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This ruling increased expectations for Supreme Court review due to the federalism and regulatory questions involved.
CFTC chair stresses exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts on TV
July 31 drops to 57%5%
Chair Selig publicly affirmed the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑related event contracts in a CNBC interview, reinforcing the regulatory narrative and causing a modest price dip (from 62 % to 57 % on 2026‑04‑09).
Third Circuit affirms Kalshi’s pre‑emptive win over New Jersey
July 31 surges to 61%27%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 decision affirming a preliminary injunction that Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore preempt state gambling laws. The ruling was widely reported as a decisive win for federal preemption and sparked a sharp rise in the market’s “Yes” probability, jumping from the low‑30 % range to a peak of 61 % on 2026‑02‑22.
Third Circuit rules sports event contracts are swaps under Commodity Exchange Act
December 31 jumps to 54%11%
The Third Circuit issued a landmark 2-1 ruling that sports event contracts traded on federally regulated exchanges are swaps under the CEA, preempting state gambling laws. This was the first federal appellate court decision on the issue and set the stage for a circuit split and potential Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit affirms federal preemption over state gambling laws for sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 52%36%
In a 2-1 decision, the Third Circuit affirmed a preliminary injunction barring New Jersey from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, holding that sports event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and shielded from state regulation. This landmark ruling set a precedent likely to prompt Supreme Court review if a circuit split emerges.
Third Circuit issues decision favoring CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 rises to 60%4%
The Third Circuit ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not New Jersey, has authority over sports event contracts, reinforcing federal regulatory control and increasing speculation about Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from New Jersey gambling laws
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This was the first federal appellate ruling on the issue, significantly increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to the legal conflict it created with other courts.
Third Circuit decision on CFTC jurisdiction over sports contracts published
December 31 jumps to 64%13%
The Third Circuit's ruling became public, confirming the CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority and highlighting a circuit split with other courts, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Third Circuit Court of Appeals rules in favor of Kalshi, affirming federal preemption over New Jersey gambling laws
July 31 jumps to 61%11%
The court held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction, blocking New Jersey from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi. This landmark ruling set the stage for potential Supreme Court review and influenced market pricing.
Third Circuit rules CFTC likely has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals issued a landmark ruling favoring the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, strengthening the federal preemption argument and increasing speculation about Supreme Court review. This ruling caused a temporary rise in market prices for December 31 outcome.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Third Circuit held that sports-related event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law preempts state gambling laws, boosting the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit rules in favor of Kalshi, supporting federal regulatory authority
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
The Third Circuit’s April 3, 2026 decision upheld that the CFTC has authority over sports event contracts, rejecting New Jersey’s challenge. This ruling increased speculation that the Supreme Court might review the case, causing market price spikes.
CFTC and U.S. Department of Justice sue Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over state gambling laws
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
The CFTC and DOJ filed lawsuits against three states alleging that their gambling laws are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act as applied to event contracts offered by designated contract markets, escalating the federal-state regulatory conflict.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over state gambling laws
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits against multiple states alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts offered by designated contract markets. This federal action heightened the regulatory stakes and market attention.
CFTC sues three states over pre‑emption of state gambling laws
December 31 surges to 75%34%
The CFTC filed a federal lawsuit against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act pre‑empts those states’ gambling laws as applied to event contracts. The aggressive federal stance reinforced the view that a Supreme Court review was likely, nudging the “December 31” price higher.
CFTC and DOJ sue Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to block state enforcement against prediction markets
December 31 rises to 43%2%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice filed lawsuits against three states asserting that their enforcement actions against prediction market platforms are preempted by federal law, signaling strong federal support for CFTC jurisdiction and increasing the likelihood of a Supreme Court case.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to assert exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
The CFTC filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois challenging their enforcement actions against CFTC-registered designated contract markets, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act and seeking to block state gambling law enforcement against prediction markets.
CFTC sues three states, claiming exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts
July 31 jumps to 77%13%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a suit in federal court against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois, asserting that the CEA preempts those states’ attempts to regulate sports‑event contracts. The move signaled an aggressive federal stance and further lifted the July‑31 odds to a peak of 77 % on 12 Feb 2026.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts in Massachusetts case
July 31 drops to 12%10%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts. The filing signaled strong federal support for the preemption theory, pushing the “July 31” probability lower as market participants saw a higher chance the case would be taken up by the Supreme Court.
CFTC + DOJ sue three states over enforcement of gambling laws against prediction markets
July 31 dips to 31%3%
The CFTC, together with the Justice Department, sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois, claiming the states’ gambling enforcement actions are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. The filing heightened expectations of a federal‑state clash and pushed the “July 31” price lower.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois claiming exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
The CFTC filed a lawsuit alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts those states’ gambling laws. The filing highlighted federal commitment to the pre‑emption theory, nudging the market to perceive a higher chance of Supreme Court review and causing a brief rally in the December‑31 odds toward 50 % on Feb‑22.
CFTC sues three states, asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction‑market event contracts
July 31 jumps to 53%8%
The CFTC filed a federal lawsuit against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois alleging that their enforcement actions against prediction‑market platforms violate the Commodity Exchange Act. The filing signaled an aggressive federal push for pre‑empting state gambling laws, boosting market participants’ belief that the issue would reach the Supreme Court.
CFTC and DOJ sue Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over state gambling laws on sports event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice filed lawsuits against several states asserting that state gambling laws are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act as applied to sports event contracts offered on CFTC-licensed markets. This federal action signaled increased regulatory assertiveness and heightened the stakes of ongoing litigation.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over state gambling laws on event contracts
July 31 surges to 65%46%
The CFTC sued three states alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts their gambling laws as applied to event contracts offered by designated contract markets. This aggressive federal action underscored the regulatory conflict and increased the likelihood of higher court intervention.
CFTC sues multiple states alleging preemption of state gambling laws
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to event contracts offered by designated contract markets. This aggressive federal action underscored the regulatory conflict and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
CFTC and DOJ sue Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona over prediction‑market regulation
July 31 jumps to 55%7%
The DOJ and CFTC sued Illinois (and two other states) over state attempts to regulate prediction‑market contracts, emphasizing exclusive federal jurisdiction. The lawsuits heightened the perception of a looming Supreme Court showdown, lifting market confidence and pushing the “Yes” probability upward in early April.
CFTC and DOJ Sue Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut Over Prediction Market Bans
December 31 jumps to 60%9%
The federal government launched unprecedented lawsuits against three states to block local gambling enforcement, escalating the jurisdictional clash toward a definitive Supreme Court resolution.
CFTC sues three states over preemption of event‑contract regulation
July 31 drops to 13%13%
The CFTC filed a lawsuit against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois, alleging the states’ enforcement actions against prediction‑market platforms are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. The move heightened the prospect of a federal‑state clash and nudged market participants toward a “No” outlook.
CFTC files lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to assert exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
The CFTC sued these states to block enforcement of state gambling laws against federally regulated prediction markets, emphasizing its exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act. This marked a significant federal escalation in the jurisdictional dispute and affected market sentiment.
CFTC and U.S. Department of Justice sue multiple states over enforcement against prediction markets
July 31 rises to 20%3%
The CFTC and DOJ jointly sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, asserting that state enforcement actions against prediction market platforms are preempted by federal law. This aggressive federal action underscored the administration's commitment to defending CFTC jurisdiction and impacted market sentiment.
US Government Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Rules in First Direct Preemption Lawsuit
December 31 surges to 74%23%
The CFTC and DOJ filed a federal preemption lawsuit against Illinois officials, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts and escalating the battle to a national level.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois over state enforcement of prediction‑market contracts
July 31 drops to 8%12%
The CFTC filed a joint lawsuit in federal court against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois, asserting that the CEA preempts those states’ gambling statutes as applied to prediction‑market event contracts. The filing underscored the federal‑preemption argument and caused a further slide in certiorari odds (price fell to 8 % by 2026‑04‑12).
CFTC Sues States Alleging Preemption of Gambling Laws on Event Contracts
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois asserting that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to event contracts offered by CFTC-registered designated contract markets, reinforcing federal regulatory claims.
CFTC files amicus briefs asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts
December 31 surges to 54%18%
The CFTC filed amicus briefs in multiple state lawsuits asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This federal backing raised the profile of the controversy and contributed to a price surge for the “December 31” outcome later in April.
CFTC and DOJ sue states to block enforcement of gambling laws against prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to prevent these states from enforcing gambling laws against prediction market operators, asserting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This federal intervention underscored the regulatory conflict and increased chances of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC sues multiple states to block enforcement against sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 36%16%
The CFTC filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to prevent state enforcement actions against Kalshi and Polymarket, escalating the federal-state regulatory conflict and increasing chances of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC sues three states alleging federal preemption of their gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 41%21%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits in federal court alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling statutes in Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois. The filings heightened expectations of a coordinated federal push, nudging the market down (price fell from 62 % to 41 % on 2026‑02‑15).
Kalshi reports record $1 billion trading volume on Super Bowl day amid prediction market growth
July 31 dips to 16%4%
Kalshi's record trading volume on a major sports event highlighted the growing prominence of prediction markets in sports betting, increasing public and regulatory attention but without direct Supreme Court action, contributing to market uncertainty.
Third Circuit ruling sparks debate over federal preemption and state gambling laws
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Following the Third Circuit ruling, New Jersey considered en banc rehearing or Supreme Court petition, highlighting the legal uncertainty and fueling market speculation on certiorari.
Supreme Court adds two cases to 2026-27 docket amid Kalshi legal challenges
December 31 jumps to 64%14%
The Supreme Court announced adding two cases to its 2026-27 docket, with Kalshi facing numerous state legal challenges alleging unlicensed gambling operations. This raised market speculation about potential SCOTUS involvement in sports event contract regulation.
SCOTUS adds two cases to 2026-27 docket, no sports event contract case included
The Court announced adding two cases to the docket for the 2026-27 term, but none explicitly concerning sports event contracts, maintaining uncertainty and limiting upward price movement for cert grant expectations.
Reply brief filed in Supreme Court certiorari petition on sports contracts
December 31 drops to 26%7%
A reply brief was filed on March 25, 2026, in a Supreme Court certiorari petition involving sports contracts, maintaining market interest but without official certiorari grant, causing price volatility.
Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in Congress
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation to classify sports and casino-style event contracts as gambling outside CFTC jurisdiction. This legislative effort added uncertainty to the regulatory landscape and influenced market perceptions of the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Congress introduces bill to strip CFTC authority over sports prediction markets
July 31 plunges to 24%18%
Senators introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” seeking to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to remove CFTC jurisdiction over sports contracts. The legislative push raised doubts about a favorable Supreme Court outcome, nudging the market toward the “No” side.
Senators introduce bill to reclassify sports‑event contracts as gambling
December 31 drops to 45%11%
Congress introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” which would strip the CFTC of authority over sports‑event contracts. The bill’s introduction revived concerns about legislative roadblocks, causing a modest dip in the “December 31” probability in early March.
Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in Congress
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
Representatives John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation to reclassify sports and casino-style event contracts as gambling outside CFTC jurisdiction, potentially overriding ongoing litigation and affecting regulatory authority over sports event contracts.
Congress introduces Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
July 31 drops to 5%11%
Congress introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, aiming to reclassify sports event contracts as gambling. The bill’s introduction sparked speculation that legislative action could preempt the need for Supreme Court review, lowering market confidence in a certiorari grant and pulling the “July 31” price down.
Congressional bill introduced to restrict sports and casino-style event contracts on prediction markets
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation aiming to amend federal law to prohibit sports and casino-style event contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms. This legislative development adds complexity to the regulatory environment and influences market expectations about Supreme Court intervention.
Bipartisan Senators Introduce Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation to reclassify sports and casino-style event contracts as gambling outside CFTC jurisdiction, signaling congressional contestation over federal versus state regulatory authority and impacting market expectations.
Senate introduces bill to reclassify sports‑event contracts as gambling, removing CFTC jurisdiction
December 31 plunges to 56%33%
Congress introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” proposing to remove CFTC jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts. The legislative move heightened uncertainty, causing the “December 31” price to retreat from a high of 89 % on 2026‑02‑22 down to 56 % by early March.
Senators introduce bill to reclassify sports event contracts as gambling
July 31 surges to 62%21%
Senators Curtis and Schiff introduced the "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act" which would reclassify sports‑event contracts as gambling, removing them from CFTC jurisdiction. The legislative move was read as a possible trigger for Supreme Court review, contributing to a price rise in early March (price rose from 41 % to 62 % on 2026‑02‑22).
Senators introduce ‘Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act’ to limit sports contracts
July 31 drops to 15%7%
Senators introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” proposing to strip CFTC‑regulated platforms of the ability to offer sports contracts. The legislative push suggested a hostile environment for prediction markets, nudging the market lower.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts prediction‑market case
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts case, reiterating its preemption argument. The filing was featured in several legal‑news outlets and gave a modest lift to the December 31 probability (from 55 % to 62 %).
Kalshi’s legal victory in Arizona cited as precedent for federal preemption of state gambling laws
July 31 drops to 14%8%
Kalshi announced that the Arizona ruling was a “step in the right direction,” reinforcing the view that federal law governs event contracts. The market reacted by further discounting the likelihood of a Supreme Court grant of certiorari.
Sportico: SCOTUS could have final say on sports prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 46%13%
Sportico’s analysis highlighted that a circuit split was likely and that the Roberts Court might be inclined to hear the case. The piece spurred a brief rally in the December‑31 odds to 46 % on March‑1 before the later decline.
CFTC issues ANPR seeking comment on regulation of sports‑event contracts
July 31 drops to 16%7%
The CFTC released an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPR) soliciting comment on how the agency would treat “gaming” and “sports competition” contracts, signaling possible regulatory tightening and contributing to a modest dip in market confidence for a July‑31 cert grant.
Arizona files criminal charges against KalshiEX LLC for unlicensed sports betting
Arizona became the first state to bring criminal charges against KalshiEX LLC for offering sports event contracts, intensifying the legal battle over state versus federal regulatory authority and impacting market sentiment on regulatory risks.
States and tribal nations continue legal challenges against prediction markets
July 31 drops to 13%7%
Several states and tribal nations filed lawsuits against prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging violations of state gambling laws. These ongoing legal battles dampened market optimism about a Supreme Court certiorari grant, contributing to price declines.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 64%9%
The federal government filed lawsuits against three states challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators, reinforcing the federal preemption argument and affecting market expectations about Supreme Court involvement.
Supreme Court could decide future of sports prediction markets
July 31 dips to 20%2%
A Sportico analysis highlighted the growing chance of Supreme Court review given the emerging circuit split, nudging the market slightly upward before later setbacks pulled the probability down again.
Trump administration asserts CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in lawsuits
July 31 jumps to 31%11%
The federal government filed lawsuits against several states challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket. This legal action reinforced federal regulatory authority claims, sustaining market interest in a possible Supreme Court case on sports event contracts by July 31.
CFTC chairman announces Innovation Advisory Committee including prediction market CEOs
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced the creation of an Innovation Advisory Committee to help draft regulations on cryptocurrencies and prediction markets, including CEOs from Kalshi and Polymarket. This indicated federal regulatory engagement but no Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Ohio court rules sports-event contracts are not swaps under CFTC jurisdiction
The Ohio court ruled that sports-event contracts are not swaps within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, contrasting with other rulings and contributing to a circuit split that increased the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Ohio federal judge denies Kalshi injunction, upholds state gambling law
July 31 drops to 22%12%
A federal judge in Ohio denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, allowing state enforcement of gambling laws. The decision created a split with the favorable Tennessee ruling, increasing uncertainty and pulling the “Yes” price down sharply in early March.
Ohio federal court rules sports-event contracts not swaps under CFTC jurisdiction
December 31 drops to 43%12%
A federal court in Ohio ruled that sports-event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, rejecting federal preemption of state gambling laws. This decision contributed to legal uncertainty and influenced market skepticism about SCOTUS taking the case.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on CFTC preemption over state gaming laws in sports contracts
December 31 jumps to 54%11%
On March 9, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard arguments involving Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood challenging Nevada's gaming laws, highlighting the circuit split with the Third Circuit and increasing expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
Ohio Court Denies Kalshi's Preliminary Injunction, Upholds State Gaming Authority
July 31 drops to 5%9%
An Ohio district court denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, allowing state regulators to treat the platform’s contracts as gambling. The setback reduced optimism that the Supreme Court would intervene, pushing the “Yes” probability lower.
Tennessee federal court grants preliminary injunction favoring federal preemption
A federal court in Tennessee granted a preliminary injunction barring enforcement of state gambling laws against sports event contracts, supporting the argument that such contracts are federally regulated swaps and contributing to the legal uncertainty driving market speculation.
Federal court in Ohio finds sports event contracts not swaps under CFTC jurisdiction
December 31 dips to 48%3%
A district court in Ohio ruled that sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, opposing the Third Circuit's later view and contributing to a circuit split that increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Federal court finds sports-event contracts are swaps under CFTC jurisdiction in Ohio case
A federal court in Ohio ruled that sports-event contracts offered by Kalshi are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, supporting federal jurisdiction and preemption of state gambling laws. This ruling contributed to early market optimism about federal regulatory authority over such contracts.
Ohio court rules sports event contracts not swaps, upholding state gambling laws
July 31 drops to 23%6%
An Ohio court ruled that sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and upheld state gambling laws, contrasting with the Third Circuit ruling and contributing to the legal uncertainty driving market fluctuations.
Ohio intensifies legal efforts to block federally licensed prediction markets
December 31 plunges to 39%16%
Ohio Casino Control Commission escalated its legal challenge against Kalshi, citing Massachusetts precedent to argue state gambling laws should preempt federal commodities law, contributing to market volatility and highlighting jurisdictional conflicts.
Will outcome in prediction‑market appellate cases pave the way for Supreme Court review?
July 31 dips to 22%2%
An iGaming Business piece discussed how an appellate circuit split could fast‑track a Supreme Court petition, briefly raising market optimism for a certiorari grant.
Federal government sues three states over their regulation of prediction markets
December 31 surges to 66%26%
The federal government escalated its legal fight by suing Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois to challenge their regulation of prediction markets, reinforcing the administration's stance on federal preemption.
CFTC files friend‑of‑the‑court brief supporting Kalshi in 9th Circuit appeal
December 31 plunges to 40%24%
The CFTC’s amicus brief signaled strong federal backing for prediction‑market operators, suggesting the issue could ascend to the Supreme Court, which further depressed market confidence.
Supreme Court could decide future of sports prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 20%6%
Sportico published an analysis highlighting the growing legal battle and the possibility of Supreme Court review, which coincided with a brief rally in the July 31 market (price rose from 14 % on 2026‑03‑03 to 20 % on 2026‑03‑10).
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona, Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 25%6%
The federal government filed lawsuits against three states challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, reinforcing the federal preemption argument. This legal escalation briefly boosted market optimism for a Supreme Court review before July 31.
Federal government sues three states over prediction‑market regulation
December 31 drops to 53%8%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois, asserting that the CFTC, not the states, has authority over prediction‑market contracts. The move reinforced the view that a Supreme Court grant of certiorari was unlikely, pushing prices lower.
Third Circuit affirms CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty
December 31 surges to 63%20%
The Third Circuit's 2-1 decision held that sports-related event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws and confirming federal regulatory primacy, significantly boosting market confidence in a Supreme Court review.
Nevada Federal Court Ruling Suggests States Have Prediction Market Powers
July 31 drops to 13%10%
A federal court in Nevada dissolved a preliminary injunction in Kalshi's favor, ruling that sports event contracts are not swaps under the CEA, creating a direct conflict with other federal jurisdictions.
Supreme Court declines to hear Major League Baseball antitrust case
December 31 dips to 46%2%
On March 2, 2026, the Supreme Court declined certiorari in a high-profile sports-related antitrust case, demonstrating the Court's selectivity and possibly tempering expectations for sports contract cases, affecting market sentiment.
U.S. Supreme Court declines to hear challenge to baseball's antitrust exemption
December 31 jumps to 54%5%
The Supreme Court declined certiorari in a high-profile sports-related antitrust case, demonstrating the court's selective approach to sports law cases. This denial tempered expectations for immediate Supreme Court review of sports contract cases but did not directly affect the sports event contracts market.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning gaming‑related event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%7%
The CFTC announced it would withdraw a 2024 proposed rule that would have prohibited gaming‑related contracts, signaling a more permissive federal stance and briefly boosting “Yes” probability.
CFTC signals upcoming rulemaking targeting prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced it is drafting new rules that could broaden the definition of swaps to include prediction‑market contracts, including those tied to sports events. The prospect of tighter federal regulation lowered confidence that the Supreme Court would need to intervene.
CFTC Chairman announces Innovation Advisory Committee including prediction market CEOs
July 31 jumps to 52%11%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced a 35-member Innovation Advisory Committee to help draft regulations on cryptocurrencies and prediction markets, including CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket. This indicated federal regulatory engagement but no Supreme Court case acceptance.
Federal judge denies Kalshi’s attempt to bar state prosecution but later issues favorable ruling
July 31 surges to 56%15%
Initially, a federal judge denied Kalshi’s request to block state prosecution under gambling laws, but subsequently issued a ruling favoring federal preemption by the CFTC over state laws. This legal back-and-forth contributed to market volatility and uncertainty about the Supreme Court’s involvement.
Experts say no end in sight for college sports eligibility and player contract disputes
December 31 dips to 43%1%
Legal experts highlighted ongoing and unresolved disputes over eligibility and player contracts in college sports, reflecting broader contract and regulatory challenges in sports law. While not directly about Supreme Court certiorari, this context contributed to market uncertainty and legal complexity perceptions.
Federal courts issue mixed rulings on state efforts to ban Kalshi and Polymarket sports betting
July 31 dips to 14%3%
Federal and state judges issued mixed rulings on lawsuits involving Kalshi and Polymarket, with some courts siding with states and others with the platforms. This legal uncertainty contributed to market volatility but no Supreme Court certiorari grant was reported, keeping probabilities low.
Supreme Court unanimously rules on contractor immunity appeal timing
On February 25, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled that federal contractors cannot immediately appeal denials of immunity defenses, a decision unrelated to sports contracts but reflecting the Court's cautious approach to certiorari, indirectly tempering expectations for sports contract case review.
Kalshi reports record trading volume during Super Bowl, highlighting prediction market growth
December 31 surges to 56%15%
Kalshi experienced a daily record of over $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl day, reflecting rapid growth and increased public attention to prediction markets. This event underscored the industry's expansion but did not directly affect Supreme Court certiorari chances, contributing to market volatility.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 surges to 50%24%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority over these markets and opposing state bans. This federal backing was significant for the market's expectations about legal outcomes related to sports event contracts.
Trump administration backs prediction markets against state bans
July 31 drops to 17%9%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority and opposing state-level bans. This federal backing reduced expectations for a Supreme Court cert grant on sports event contracts, reflected in market price drops.
Nevada moves to remand Kalshi case after state injunction
July 31 rises to 20%3%
Nevada filed an emergency motion to remand the case after the Superior Court injunction, highlighting a divergent state approach and adding pressure on the federal‑state split narrative, which contributed to a modest rise in “Yes” odds.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in unrelated case, signaling active docket
On February 24, 2026, the Supreme Court granted certiorari in a high-profile environmental law case, signaling an active term and raising speculation about other potential grants, including sports event contract cases. This contributed to early market volatility as traders anticipated possible SCOTUS involvement.
Supreme Court hearing on independent agency power raises doubts on future market rulings
July 31 plunges to 11%17%
While not directly about prediction markets, the Court’s willingness to expand presidential control over agencies suggested a possible weakening of CFTC independence, causing a brief rally before the market corrected as traders reassessed the long‑term regulatory outlook.
U.S. District Judge rules in favor of CFTC, temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators
July 31 plunges to 67%22%
A federal judge's ruling affirmed that event contracts constitute regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing federal preemption over Arizona law, directly impacting the market's legal criteria.
Kalshi trading volume spikes on Super Bowl, highlighting prediction market growth
December 31 plunges to 46%38%
Kalshi reported record trading volume during the Super Bowl, reflecting growing interest and regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets. This event increased market attention on the legal status of sports event contracts, contributing to price volatility in the December 31 outcome.
Kalshi reports record $1 billion trading volume on Super Bowl day amid prediction market surge
July 31 surges to 89%39%
Kalshi experienced a massive surge in trading volume on the day of the 2026 Super Bowl, highlighting the growing popularity and financial scale of prediction markets tied to sports events. This event underscored the importance of sports contracts in the prediction market ecosystem but did not directly influence Supreme Court certiorari.
Kalshi case tentatively scheduled for Supreme Court oral argument in May 2026
December 31 surges to 62%23%
In late February 2026, it was reported that the KalshiEX LLC v. Martin case, concerning sports event contracts and federal regulation, was tentatively calendared for oral argument at the Supreme Court in early May 2026, raising market anticipation of a certiorari grant.
Judge rules in favor of CFTC in Arizona-Kalshi dispute, halting state prosecution
July 31 drops to 16%10%
A federal judge ruled that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, halting Arizona's criminal prosecution of Kalshi. This reinforced federal regulatory primacy and diminished the likelihood of a Supreme Court case on sports event contracts, contributing to market price declines.
CFTC argues exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts in Arizona case
During oral arguments, the CFTC reiterated that event contracts are swaps subject to federal regulation, bolstering the argument that any Supreme Court review would likely favor federal preemption. The reaffirmation coincided with a sharp price drop.
Federal indictment exposes NCAA basketball game-fixing scheme involving players and gamblers
December 31 surges to 87%40%
Federal prosecutors announced charges against 26 individuals, including NCAA players, for rigging basketball games to defraud sportsbooks. This high-profile sports betting scandal heightened scrutiny on sports-related contracts and betting legality, impacting market perceptions about potential Supreme Court involvement in sports event contract regulation.
Kalshi reports record trading volume on Super Bowl day amid prediction market growth
December 31 surges to 62%16%
Kalshi experienced a daily record trading volume exceeding $1 billion on Super Bowl day, highlighting the rapid growth and popularity of sports event contracts. This increased market activity underscored the stakes in ongoing legal disputes but did not trigger Supreme Court action.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi's federal regulation claim
December 31 surges to 62%30%
The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This ruling increased market optimism for Supreme Court review but did not guarantee certiorari.
CFTC argues exclusive jurisdiction over swaps in Arizona case filing
July 31 drops to 13%14%
The CFTC submitted a brief emphasizing its exclusive authority over swaps, reinforcing the view that sports‑event contracts are regulated federally, which further dampened market expectations of a SCOTUS certiorari.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating Kalshi and pauses criminal case
December 31 surges to 82%35%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, siding with the CFTC's claim that event contracts fall under federal swaps regulation. This ruling suggested federal preemption and increased chances of a Supreme Court case, causing a price spike in the December 31 market.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 surges to 50%23%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of event contracts like those offered by Kalshi. This ruling supported the federal regulatory framework over state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook on sports event contract regulation.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket
July 31 plunges to 26%39%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators, asserting that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority. This federal action underscored the ongoing legal conflict but did not involve a Supreme Court certiorari grant, influencing market sentiment downward for a cert grant by July 31.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket against state bans in legal battle
December 31 surges to 73%41%
The Trump administration publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority and that state-level bans are preempted. This bolstered confidence that federal regulation would prevail, influencing market prices.
CFTC announces public roundtable on sports betting contracts regulation
December 31 surges to 71%21%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a public roundtable to discuss regulation and oversight of sports-related event contracts on prediction markets. This event highlighted the agency's active role and the regulatory uncertainty surrounding sports event contracts, influencing early market speculation about Supreme Court involvement.
Federal Court Grants Preliminary Injunction Favoring Kalshi in Tennessee Case
December 31 rises to 60%3%
The U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee granted Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, finding that its sports event contracts are likely "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law likely preempts Tennessee's gambling laws. This ruling bolstered confidence in federal preemption and increased market optimism.
Federal judge in Tennessee grants preliminary injunction for Kalshi against state gambling enforcement
The court found that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, blocking Tennessee regulators from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi. This federal ruling supported Kalshi's position and influenced market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
Federal judge grants preliminary injunction for Kalshi against Tennessee
July 31 jumps to 27%7%
Judge Aleta Trauger ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA and preliminarily enjoined Tennessee from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, bolstering the argument for federal preemption and raising hopes for Supreme Court review.
Federal court in Tennessee grants Kalshi preliminary injunction citing federal preemption
December 31 jumps to 48%7%
The U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction, ruling that its sports event contracts are likely swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law likely preempts Tennessee's regulatory efforts, marking a significant federal court victory.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
On April 6, 2026, the Third Circuit held that sports-related event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC's jurisdiction preempts state gambling laws, marking a critical federal appellate decision favoring Kalshi and influencing market expectations for Supreme Court review.
Middle District of Tennessee rules sports event contracts are swaps under CEA
July 31 surges to 36%20%
The court found that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal regulation preempts state gambling laws, supporting Kalshi's position. This ruling increased market optimism about SCOTUS review for the July 31 deadline.
KalshiEX LLC v. Martin tentatively scheduled for oral argument in early May 2026
December 31 rises to 33%2%
The scheduling of oral argument for KalshiEX LLC v. Martin in early May 2026 indicated advancing litigation that could escalate to higher courts, contributing to market anticipation of a potential Supreme Court review.
Federal Court Grants Kalshi Injunction Against Tennessee Sports Wagering Officials
December 31 surges to 61%23%
The U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts are likely 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state-level regulation and adding to the fractured legal landscape.
Third Circuit holds CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts
December 31 surges to 57%15%
On April 6, 2026, the Third Circuit ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts offered by Kalshi, supporting federal preemption of state gambling laws and influencing market expectations about Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 31%8%
The Third Circuit held that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts, preempting state gambling laws. This ruling intensified the circuit split and raised the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Federal judge grants preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi against Tennessee gambling laws
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
A federal district court in Tennessee ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts are likely swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law preempts Tennessee's gambling laws, supporting Kalshi's position and boosting market confidence in federal preemption arguments.
Federal Judge Grants Kalshi Preliminary Injunction Against Tennessee Regulators
December 31 surges to 81%41%
U.S. District Judge Aleta Trauger ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, blocking state enforcement and adding to the patchwork of conflicting state-level rulings.
Tennessee federal court blocks state enforcement of gambling laws against Kalshi
July 31 jumps to 36%6%
A federal judge in Tennessee granted a preliminary injunction blocking the state from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi’s contracts, finding the contracts likely qualify as swaps. The decision added another favorable ruling for Kalshi, briefly boosting market sentiment toward a Supreme Court grant of certiorari.
Federal Judge Trauger Grants Kalshi Injunction Against Tennessee Sports Wagering Council
December 31 surges to 58%18%
U.S. District Judge Aleta A. Trauger ruled that Tennessee's gambling laws are likely preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act, preventing state officials from enforcing a cease-and-desist order against Kalshi.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule on gaming contracts
December 31 surges to 56%22%
A district‑court filing noted that the CFTC had withdrawn a proposed rule on gaming contracts, signaling regulatory uncertainty and briefly nudging the “Yes” price upward in early February.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 drops to 17%12%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that federal regulation preempts state gambling laws. This bolstered the federal regulatory stance but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari, influencing market prices downward as states continue legal challenges.
CFTC files amicus brief supporting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit supporting the view that sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and that state gambling laws are preempted. This federal backing signaled strong regulatory support for exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, influencing market expectations.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit arguing that sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that state gambling laws are preempted, signaling federal intent to assert exclusive regulatory authority and influencing market expectations.
CFTC files amicus brief urging exclusive federal jurisdiction in Ninth Circuit sports contract case
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting a federal appeal to block state gaming regulators from acting against sports event contracts, arguing these contracts are federally regulated swaps and state laws are preempted, intensifying the jurisdictional dispute.
CFTC files amicus brief supporting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 32%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a brief in the Ninth Circuit asserting that sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that state gambling laws are preempted, signaling strong federal support for exclusive CFTC regulation.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit supporting federal preemption of state gambling laws for sports event contracts, reinforcing the agency's position and influencing market expectations.
CFTC filing asserts exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, prompting industry backlash
July 31 drops to 16%12%
The CFTC submitted a brief to the Supreme Court reaffirming its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, arguing that state gambling statutes are preempted. Traders interpreted the filing as a sign the Court would not take up a sports‑event contract case, pushing prices down further.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on state regulation versus federal preemption of sports contracts
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases challenging state authority to regulate sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets, highlighting the legal conflict and increasing the chance of a Supreme Court decision to resolve the split.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket against state bans on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 37%1%
The Trump administration, via the CFTC chairman, publicly supported prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority and opposing state gambling restrictions. This federal backing influenced market expectations about regulatory outcomes and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 jumps to 38%11%
A federal judge issued a temporary order preventing Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi for alleged illegal gambling operations, affirming the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This ruling was a significant legal victory for prediction markets, briefly boosting market optimism for a Supreme Court review by July 31.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule restricting gaming-related contracts, signaling support for sports event contracts
December 31 rises to 50%4%
In mid-February 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, indicating regulatory support for sports event contracts. This development bolstered the argument that such contracts fall under federal oversight, influencing market optimism about SCOTUS review.
Supreme Court weighs state limits on carrying guns on private property
July 31 drops to 27%7%
While not directly about sports contracts, the Supreme Court's focus on Second Amendment rights and private property limits during this period drew significant attention to the Court's docket, impacting broader market sentiment regarding SCOTUS intervention.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market contracts
July 31 plunges to 20%57%
A federal judge ruled that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that the CFTC has demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing that federal law preempts Arizona's gambling laws. This is a direct legal precedent for the market's resolution criteria.
Ninth Circuit oral arguments scheduled for April 16, 2026, raising certiorari prospects
July 31 drops to 28%6%
The Ninth Circuit scheduled consolidated oral arguments for April 16, 2026, in cases involving Kalshi and others, increasing the likelihood of a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review. This event influenced market prices as traders anticipated a potential path to certiorari.
Market Optimism Peaks on Speculation of SCOTUS Certiorari Grant
July 31 surges to 77%51%
Speculation about the Supreme Court granting certiorari on sports event contracts peaked, driving the July 31 market price to a high of 77%, reflecting increased expectations of a review.
Kalshi wins preliminary injunction in Georgia federal court against state gambling enforcement
December 31 dips to 17%2%
A federal court in Georgia denied remand of Kalshi's case to state court, affirming federal question jurisdiction and supporting Kalshi's argument that CFTC regulation preempts state gambling laws, increasing likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on federal preemption of state gaming laws
July 31 surges to 52%25%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood challenging state gaming authority over sports contracts regulated by the CFTC. This raised the prospect of a circuit split and increased chances of Supreme Court review.
Kalshi reports record trading volume during Super Bowl, sparking regulatory scrutiny
July 31 surges to 52%38%
Kalshi experienced a record daily trading volume exceeding $1 billion on Super Bowl day, highlighting the growth of prediction markets tied to sports events. This surge drew complaints and regulatory attention but did not lead to Supreme Court certiorari, contributing to market uncertainty.
House Representative Dina Titus introduces bill to ban sports event contracts on federally regulated exchanges
December 31 plunges to 32%18%
Representative Dina Titus introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act to prohibit federally regulated exchanges from listing sports event contracts, reflecting legislative pushback and increasing legal uncertainty around federal preemption claims.
CFTC Chair Selig withdraws proposed rule banning sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 50%31%
The CFTC withdrew a 2024 proposed rule that would have banned political and sports-related event contracts, signaling a deregulatory pivot and strengthening the argument that such contracts fall under federal jurisdiction, boosting market optimism for federal preemption.
CFTC files motion to submit amicus brief in Ninth Circuit sports event contracts case
December 31 rises to 57%1%
The CFTC filed a motion for leave to file an amicus brief in a Ninth Circuit case concerning sports event contracts, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction and indicating federal interest in the legal questions. This action heightened expectations for Supreme Court review due to federal-state regulatory conflicts.
CFTC Chairman signals support for sports event contracts industry
December 31 surges to 59%25%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly expressed support for innovation in sports event contracts, indicating regulatory backing that could influence the legal landscape and SCOTUS interest.
CFTC Chair withdraws 2025 advisory on sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%11%
On February 9, 2026, CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig withdrew a 2025 staff advisory that had warned exchanges about state litigation risks for sports event contracts, signaling a regulatory shift favoring the industry. This action increased market optimism about federal regulatory clarity and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Nevada Gaming Control Board obtains temporary restraining order against Kalshi
December 31 drops to 46%9%
A state enforcement action against Kalshi added to the legal pressure on prediction markets, reinforcing concerns that the Supreme Court may need to decide the federal‑state jurisdiction issue.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule barring gaming‑related event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%14%
The CFTC announced it was withdrawing a proposed rule that would have prohibited “gaming” contracts, a move interpreted by market participants as a possible softening of the agency’s stance toward sports‑event contracts, temporarily lifting the "July 31" odds.
Trump administration throws support behind prediction market operators
July 31 surges to 54%26%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC, officially backed Kalshi and Polymarket in their legal battles against states, signaling a shift toward federal oversight and away from state-level gambling bans.
CFTC withdraws 2024 event contracts proposal, signals new rulemaking approach
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew its 2024 proposed rule banning certain event contracts, including those involving gaming, and announced a new rulemaking process to promote innovation. This indicated ongoing regulatory uncertainty affecting the market.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule restricting gaming-related contracts
On February 6, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and influencing market optimism about federal jurisdiction.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a 2024 proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, including sports event contracts, signaling regulatory leniency and support for the sports event contracts industry. This withdrawal increased market optimism about federal regulatory acceptance and potential Supreme Court review.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule on event contracts, signaling regulatory uncertainty
July 31 drops to 16%12%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew its proposed rule on event contracts in early February 2026, creating regulatory uncertainty that influenced market expectations about the legal status of sports event contracts and potential Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule targeting gaming contracts
July 31 jumps to 30%13%
The CFTC withdrew a proposed rule that would have specifically prohibited “gaming” contracts, removing a potential regulatory hurdle and briefly reviving optimism for a SCOTUS grant, which pushed the July‑31 probability higher in early February.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule that would have prohibited sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 36%18%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have banned contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and influencing legal interpretations of their status under federal law.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning event contracts involving gaming
On February 6, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and bolstering the argument that these contracts fall under federal jurisdiction rather than state gambling laws.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule that would have barred sports‑event contracts
December 31 surges to 81%35%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited "gaming" contracts, removing a potential regulatory barrier and leading to a sharp increase in the "December 31" probability in mid‑February.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule restricting gaming-related contracts
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and bolstering Kalshi's position, which increased market optimism for certiorari.
Trump administration backs prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket amid state bans
July 31 drops to 27%9%
The Trump administration, through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), publicly supported prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal jurisdiction over these markets and opposing state-level gambling restrictions. This federal backing raised expectations that legal challenges might escalate to the Supreme Court, influencing market prices for the July 31 outcome.
Trump administration publicly backs Kalshi and Polymarket in state‑law battles
December 31 drops to 45%11%
The administration, through CFTC Chair Michael Selig, filed a friend‑of‑the‑court brief supporting Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling federal endorsement of their regulatory status and further lowering odds of a Supreme Court review of sports‑event contract cases.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operator Kalshi
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, emphasizing that the CFTC has shown event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and may preempt state law. The decision signaled strong federal authority, reducing expectations of a Supreme Court review of the issue.
Judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against prediction‑market operators
December 31 plunges to 34%18%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's successful argument that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, reinforcing federal preemption over state law.
CFTC asserts exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, withdraws restrictive rulemaking
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
CFTC Chair Michael Selig withdrew a 2024 proposed rule that would have banned sports-related event contracts and signaled the agency's intent to uphold exclusive federal jurisdiction over these contracts, increasing confidence in federal preemption over state gambling laws.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule on event contracts, signaling regulatory uncertainty
On February 4, 2026, the CFTC withdrew its proposed rule that would have prohibited certain event contracts involving gaming, reflecting regulatory uncertainty and complicating the legal landscape. This withdrawal affected market confidence in a clear regulatory path and the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Fourth Circuit decision in sports event contract litigation
July 31 jumps to 28%12%
On February 4, 2026, the Fourth Circuit issued a decision in a case involving sports event contracts, highlighting ongoing legal battles that could prompt Supreme Court review. This development contributed to increased market interest in a cert grant by July 31.
Third Circuit rules in KalshiEX LLC v. on sports event contracts legality
December 31 surges to 49%30%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued a ruling favoring KalshiEX LLC, finding sports event contracts likely qualify as swaps under federal law, creating a circuit split that increased the chance of Supreme Court review. This ruling caused a significant market price increase reflecting higher odds of certiorari.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule restricting sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 50%17%
On February 4, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and impacting market views on federal regulatory authority.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule restricting gaming-related contracts
December 31 surges to 62%23%
On February 4, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming without further review, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and influencing market expectations about federal jurisdiction.
CFTC Withdraws Proposed Ban on Sports and Political Prediction Markets
December 31 plunges to 32%16%
The CFTC formally withdrew its 2024 proposal to ban sports and political event contracts, signaling a permissive federal stance and shifting the legal battleground entirely to state-level preemption disputes.
Third Circuit Rules in Favor of KalshiEX on Sports Event Contracts
December 31 surges to 49%30%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that sports event contracts are likely "swaps" under federal law, supporting preemption of state gambling laws, boosting market confidence in a Supreme Court review.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning gaming-related event contracts
July 31 surges to 65%49%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and influencing market expectations about federal authority.
CFTC withdraws 2024 proposed ban on sports and political event contracts
The CFTC formally withdrew its 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that would have banned sports and political event contracts, signaling a regulatory shift toward permissiveness and a new rulemaking grounded in the Commodity Exchange Act. This move reduced regulatory uncertainty for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and was seen as supportive of the prediction market industry.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning gaming-related event contracts
December 31 dips to 48%2%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and influencing market expectations about federal jurisdiction and potential Supreme Court interest.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig announces aggressive federal court brief asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 33%6%
CFTC Chair Michael Selig filed an amicus brief supporting Crypto.com in a Ninth Circuit appeal, asserting federal authority over prediction markets and opposing state gambling regulation. This marked a strategic escalation in the federal-state regulatory conflict, influencing market expectations for federal preemption and potential Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC withdraws 2024 proposed ban on sports event contracts, signaling regulatory shift
December 31 drops to 38%12%
The CFTC withdrew its prior proposed ban on political and sports event contracts, moving towards a permissive regulatory framework. This shift raised optimism about federal regulatory clarity but did not directly indicate Supreme Court involvement, causing moderate market fluctuations.
CFTC withdraws event‑contracts rulemaking and advisory
July 31 drops to 38%5%
The CFTC withdrew its 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that would have barred sports‑event contracts, removing regulatory uncertainty and prompting a modest rally in the market as participants viewed the withdrawal as a win for prediction‑market operators.
CFTC Formally Withdraws Proposed Limits and Ban on Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 36%16%
The CFTC officially withdrew its 2024 proposed rule that sought to prohibit sports and political event contracts, signaling a major shift toward federal regulation and defense of its exclusive jurisdiction.
Tennessee court schedules KalshiEX LLC v. Martin oral argument for early May
In early February 2026, the Tennessee case involving Kalshi was tentatively calendared for oral argument in early May, indicating ongoing litigation and uncertainty about federal preemption of state gambling laws.
Third Circuit issues split ruling favoring CFTC preemption in sports event contracts case
July 31 surges to 74%58%
The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation preempts state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts, creating a significant federalism question and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review. This ruling raised market optimism for certiorari by July 31, 2026.
Wall Street Journal highlights legal uncertainty in sports contracts
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
An article in the Wall Street Journal discussed the legal challenges and regulatory questions surrounding sports event contracts, increasing market attention and causing price fluctuations.
Third Circuit issues decision in Kalshi v. Flaherty supporting CFTC regulatory authority
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
The Third Circuit upheld that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has authority over sports event contracts offered by Kalshi, reinforcing federal regulatory claims and setting the stage for potential Supreme Court review due to circuit splits.
Nevada Regulators File Civil Enforcement Action Against Coinbase Prediction Markets
December 31 dips to 49%4%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a lawsuit against Coinbase Financial Markets to block its sports-related event contracts, escalating state-level crackdowns and increasing the likelihood of a legal showdown.
CFTC sues Minnesota over new felony law targeting prediction‑market contracts
July 31 surges to 62%46%
The CFTC filed a lawsuit challenging Minnesota’s new felony law on prediction‑market contracts, signaling federal intent to protect such markets. News of the suit coincided with a sharp rise in the July‑31 probability from 16% to over 60% in late February.
CFTC chair backs prediction‑market operators in fight against state bans
December 31 drops to 48%8%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that federal regulation preempts state gambling laws. The endorsement was taken as a signal that the agency would defend the industry, further lowering expectations of a Supreme Court review.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, pauses criminal case
July 31 surges to 65%49%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi, citing federal preemption by the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over swaps. This ruling was significant for the market as it reinforced federal regulatory authority over event contracts, reducing the likelihood of state-level restrictions leading to Supreme Court intervention by July 31, 2026.
District court blocks New Jersey from enforcing gambling law on Kalshi
December 31 surges to 69%50%
A district court granted a preliminary injunction against New Jersey’s attempt to enforce its gambling law on Kalshi, reinforcing the view that the contracts are federally regulated and temporarily lifting uncertainty, which spiked the December‑31 probability.
CFTC Chairman signals regulatory support for sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 59%40%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly directed staff to support innovation in prediction markets, signaling a regulatory shift away from prior prohibitions on sports event contracts. This boosted market optimism about federal regulatory clarity and potential Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig withdraws proposed ban on sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 85%35%
On January 29, 2026, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig formally withdrew the proposed ban on political and sports event contracts, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction and signaling regulatory support for prediction markets. This regulatory shift boosted market confidence in federal preemption over state gambling laws.
CFTC Chairman signals support for sports event contracts industry
December 31 rises to 54%4%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly expressed support for innovation in sports event contracts, indicating a regulatory environment favoring federal oversight rather than state bans, which influenced market sentiment positively for the December 31 outcome.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig directs agency to defend exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Chairman Selig publicly affirmed the CFTC's commitment to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts, signaling a strong federal stance amid ongoing state regulatory challenges. This bolstered expectations for eventual Supreme Court involvement but did not guarantee certiorari.
CFTC Chairman directs staff to support sports event contracts industry
December 31 rises to 53%3%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly expressed support for innovation in sports event contracts, signaling regulatory favorability which likely bolstered market confidence in federal jurisdiction and contract legality.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts under Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 plunges to 5%21%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, ruling that event contracts constitute 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has exclusive federal jurisdiction. This decision directly addresses the market's legal criteria regarding federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Judge rules CFTC prevails in Arizona prediction market lawsuit
July 31 plunges to 5%21%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, ruling that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of swaps and that federal law prevails over Arizona's gambling statutes. This decision significantly strengthened the federal regulatory position on prediction markets.
CFTC Chairman signals support for sports event contracts innovation
July 31 surges to 56%30%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig directed staff to support innovation in sports event contracts, signaling a regulatory environment favorable to federal oversight and potentially influencing market optimism about legal clarity.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig signals regulatory agenda for prediction markets
Michael Selig, newly appointed CFTC chairman, publicly outlined plans to set rules for prediction markets, signaling federal regulatory focus on sports event contracts and increasing market expectations for federal preemption over state gambling laws.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, preempts Arizona gambling laws
July 31 dips to 25%1%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, ruling that the CFTC has 'exclusive jurisdiction' over 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, demonstrating federal preemption over state gambling laws for sports event contracts.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
July 31 drops to 15%11%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. Traders saw the decision as a setback for state regulation, pushing down the July 31 and December 31 prices.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 17%10%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator offering event contracts including sports outcomes, siding with the CFTC's claim of exclusive federal jurisdiction. This ruling supported the view that such contracts fall under federal regulation, impacting market expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle with states
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket against state efforts to ban them, emphasizing federal regulatory authority over these markets. This bolstered market confidence in federal preemption over state gambling laws, initially supporting the possibility of Supreme Court involvement.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against prediction‑market operator Kalshi
July 31 drops to 27%11%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC’s claim that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The ruling suggested federal preemption, reducing perceived risk of a SCOTUS certiorari grant.
SCOTUS oral arguments hint at narrow exceptions preserving federal regulatory independence
During oral arguments on January 21, 2026, Justice Kavanaugh suggested the Court might carve out narrow exceptions preserving Federal Reserve independence, signaling the Court's engagement with complex regulatory issues that could influence related cases like sports event contracts under federal jurisdiction.
Supreme Court oral arguments hint at possible narrow exceptions preserving federal authority
At January 21, 2026 oral arguments, Justice Kavanaugh suggested the Court might carve out narrow exceptions preserving federal independence, signaling potential interest in federal regulatory questions relevant to sports event contracts. This contributed to initial market volatility.
Supreme Court oral argument on sports event contract case scheduled
July 31 surges to 54%28%
The Supreme Court scheduled oral argument for December 8, 2025, on the merits of whether sports event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, increasing market expectations for a certiorari grant.
Supreme Court hears oral argument on sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 52%27%
The Supreme Court held oral arguments on January 21, 2026, regarding the legality and federal preemption of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, reinforcing market expectations for a decision impacting the July 31, 2026 resolution.
Supreme Court oral arguments on related federal jurisdiction issues
Oral arguments at the Supreme Court on January 21, 2026, included discussions relevant to federal regulatory authority, signaling potential for future Supreme Court involvement in sports event contract cases, which initially supported market optimism.
Supreme Court hears oral arguments on related federal regulatory issues
The Supreme Court held oral arguments on cases involving federal regulatory authority, signaling judicial engagement with issues relevant to prediction markets and sports contracts, which influenced early market optimism.
Massachusetts Superior Court grants preliminary injunction against Kalshi for unlicensed sports betting
The court ruled that Kalshi must be licensed under Massachusetts law to offer sports event contracts, rejecting Kalshi's federal preemption argument. This set a precedent for state authority over sports betting contracts and contributed to market skepticism about a timely Supreme Court certiorari grant.
CFTC opens public comment on proposed event‑contract rule
July 31 plunges to 11%17%
The CFTC opened a comment period for a new rule on event contracts, signaling possible future regulation; the uncertainty lowered confidence in a favorable SCOTUS outcome, driving the July‑31 price down.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 17%10%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal Commodity Exchange Act preemption. This ruling indicated federal authority over event contracts, impacting market expectations about state-level regulation and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal fight against state bans on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 18%4%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority over these markets and opposing state gambling laws. This bolstered confidence in federal preemption but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit case filed challenging state regulation of sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit received cases involving Kalshi and others challenging Nevada's state gaming authority over sports event contracts regulated by the CFTC. This set the stage for a potential circuit split and future Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight federal preemption debate over sports event contracts
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Legal briefs filed in the Ninth Circuit emphasized Kalshi's argument that sports wagers are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, supporting federal regulation and preemption of state gambling laws. This heightened market interest in a potential Supreme Court review due to the circuit split.
Ninth Circuit case filings highlight dispute over CFTC jurisdiction on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 25%2%
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit detailed arguments over whether sports event contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi fall under federal Commodity Exchange Act jurisdiction or state gambling laws. This set the stage for upcoming appellate decisions that could create a circuit split, influencing Supreme Court interest.
Ninth Circuit briefs filed debating CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 25%2%
On January 16, 2026, briefs were filed in the Ninth Circuit case challenging state gambling laws over sports event contracts, highlighting the legal dispute over whether such contracts are regulated as swaps by the CFTC. This set the stage for upcoming oral arguments and potential circuit split.
Ninth Circuit hears appeals on regulation of sports event contracts by prediction markets
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments involving Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood over whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts. This highlighted the legal uncertainty and potential for Supreme Court review, influencing market expectations.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight legal debate over sports event contracts as swaps
July 31 dips to 25%1%
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit case emphasized Kalshi's argument that sports wagers are "event contracts" and thus swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, framing the federal preemption issue. This legal framing raised early awareness of the case's potential to reach the Supreme Court, influencing market expectations.
Ninth Circuit briefs reveal Kalshi's argument that sports wagers are swaps under CEA
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit case detailed Kalshi's position that its sports wagers qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, seeking federal preemption of state gambling laws. This set the stage for the circuit court's upcoming review and potential conflict with other circuits.
Ninth Circuit briefs filed challenging state authority over sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 28%1%
On January 16, 2026, amicus briefs and filings in the Ninth Circuit case (25-7504) argued over whether sports event contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This set the stage for a key appellate review that could create a circuit split and influence Supreme Court interest.
Ninth Circuit receives amicus briefs supporting federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts
Amicus briefs filed in the Ninth Circuit supported Kalshi's position that sports event contracts are federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, reinforcing the CFTC's claim of exclusive jurisdiction and setting the stage for appellate review that could lead to Supreme Court involvement.
Ninth Circuit briefs reveal key arguments on sports event contracts as swaps
The Ninth Circuit filings detailed Kalshi's argument that its sports wagers are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, asserting exclusive CFTC jurisdiction and exemption from state gaming laws. This filing highlighted the core legal issues driving the market's focus on potential Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight Kalshi's claim that sports wagers are swaps under CEA
July 31 dips to 25%2%
Legal filings in the Ninth Circuit case emphasized Kalshi's argument that its sports wagers qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, asserting exclusive CFTC jurisdiction and exemption from state gaming laws. This framing set the stage for federal preemption debates influencing market expectations.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight federal-state conflict over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 54%40%
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit case emphasized the dispute over whether sports event contracts are regulated as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act or subject to state gambling laws. This heightened market attention on potential Supreme Court review due to circuit splits and constitutional questions.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight Kalshi’s sports wagers as swaps under federal law
December 31 plunges to 20%30%
Legal briefs filed in the Ninth Circuit emphasized Kalshi’s argument that its sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, supporting federal regulatory authority and setting the stage for higher court review. This contributed to early market interest in a Supreme Court case.
Judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses prosecution of Kalshi
July 31 dips to 24%1%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This legal victory for prediction markets initially boosted market confidence in federal preemption.
Ninth Circuit hears appeals on state regulation vs. federal oversight of sports event contracts
December 31 plunges to 26%24%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments on whether the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulation preempt state gaming laws for sports event contracts offered by Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood. This legal battle heightened market attention on potential Supreme Court review due to the circuit split and significant industry impact.
Ninth Circuit case challenges federal preemption of state gambling laws on sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 32%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard cases involving Kalshi and others, with arguments focusing on whether sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus federally regulated, or subject to state gambling laws. This raised the prospect of a circuit split, increasing chances for Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on federal preemption over state gaming laws for sports contracts
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments on whether the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulation preempt state gaming laws regarding sports event contracts offered by prediction markets. This high-profile case raised the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to the circuit split and significant market impact.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight dispute over federal preemption of state gambling laws for sports contracts
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit detailed arguments that sports wagers offered as swaps on CFTC-regulated markets fall under federal jurisdiction, challenging state gambling authority. This heightened expectations for a circuit split and potential Supreme Court review.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly backs Kalshi and Polymarket against state bans
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
Selig’s statement that the CFTC will defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets intensified speculation that a Supreme Court case on the issue might be imminent, pushing prices lower.
Supreme Court hears major sports-related cases but not sports event contract case
July 31 rises to 19%1%
On January 14, 2026, the Supreme Court heard arguments in high-profile sports-related cases involving transgender athletes but did not announce acceptance of any sports event contract cases. This maintained market uncertainty and limited price gains for the July 31 outcome.
Federal judge issues temporary restraining order blocking Tennessee enforcement against Kalshi
July 31 drops to 18%9%
U.S. District Judge Aleta Trauger granted Kalshi a temporary restraining order preventing Tennessee officials from enforcing state sports betting laws against Kalshi, citing likely federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling was a significant early legal win for Kalshi and influenced market optimism about federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts.
Federal district court in Tennessee hears case on sports event contracts regulation
A federal district court in Tennessee considered whether sports event contracts offered by Kalshi fall under federal or state regulation, highlighting early judicial scrutiny of the regulatory framework and contributing to market uncertainty.
Federal judge blocks Arizona from regulating prediction‑market operators, citing CFTC authority
July 31 drops to 14%13%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, emphasizing that the CFTC has shown event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and likely preempt state law. The ruling lowered perceived chances of a Supreme Court case on sports‑event contracts, driving the July 31 price down from 27% to 14% and the December 31 price from 50% to 19%.
Trump administration backs prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battles
July 31 dips to 24%3%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority over these markets and opposing state gambling restrictions. This bolstered the legal position of prediction markets but did not involve Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 jumps to 36%9%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, affirming the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts as swaps under federal law. This ruling boosted confidence that federal regulation would preempt state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook for Supreme Court intervention.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal fight against state gambling bans
July 31 jumps to 32%7%
The Trump administration, via CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing federal regulation preempts state gambling laws. This bolstered market optimism that federal authority would prevail, temporarily increasing prices for July 31 resolution.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, pauses Kalshi prosecution
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
A federal judge ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, temporarily blocking Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi. This ruling supported the view that federal regulation preempts state laws, impacting the market's outlook on Supreme Court intervention.
Tennessee challenges federal exclusivity over sports event contracts in district court
July 31 dips to 25%2%
Tennessee's Attorney General and the State Wrestling Commission filed legal challenges questioning whether sports event contracts fall exclusively under federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulation, highlighting early 2026 litigation that contributed to market uncertainty.
Tennessee district court challenges federal scope over sports‑event contracts
December 31 plunges to 13%37%
A district‑court filing in Tennessee argued that sports‑event contracts do not fall under exclusive federal regulation, raising doubts about CFTC pre‑emption and briefly lowering the December‑31 “Yes” price to 13 % on Jan 28 before a rebound.
Kalshi files lawsuit challenging state sports wagering restrictions in Tennessee
July 31 dips to 24%2%
Kalshi sued Tennessee officials on January 9, 2026, seeking to block state enforcement against its sports event contracts, marking a key early legal challenge that set the stage for federal court rulings on CFTC jurisdiction and preemption.
Petition for writ of certiorari filed in Supreme Court for sports contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A petition for certiorari was filed on January 6, 2026, in the Supreme Court concerning a case involving sports event contracts, signaling a formal request for the Court to consider the matter. This filing increased market confidence in a potential grant by the July 31 deadline.
Petition for certiorari filed in Supreme Court on sports contract-related issue
December 31 plunges to 20%30%
A petition for a writ of certiorari was filed on January 6, 2026, raising questions related to contracts potentially involving sports events. This filing initially increased market interest and price for the December 31 outcome, reflecting hopes for a cert grant.
Petition for certiorari filed concerning sports event contracts and derivatives regulation
December 31 plunges to 34%16%
A petition was filed in early January 2026 raising questions about the regulation of sports event contracts under federal law, sparking initial market interest and price movements for the December 31 outcome.
Federal judge blocks Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operator Kalshi
July 31 drops to 25%5%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily barred Arizona from pursuing its criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's claim that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The decision highlighted federal preemption, lowering market confidence in a SCOTUS certiorari request.
Prediction News reports ongoing legal battles and potential Supreme Court role
July 31 rises to 26%2%
By early January 2026, Prediction News summarized the ongoing federal-state litigation over sports event contracts and noted the increasing possibility that the Supreme Court would need to resolve the conflicting rulings and regulatory uncertainty.
Supreme Court schedules oral argument for January 21, 2026, on related regulatory case
July 31 rises to 26%1%
The Supreme Court set oral argument for January 21, 2026, in a case involving federal regulatory authority, indicating active consideration of issues related to jurisdiction and regulatory preemption that could impact sports event contract cases.
Judge Michael Liburdi bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi
July 31 rises to 26%2%
A federal judge temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC’s claim that event contracts are swaps, which suggested a federal‑state clash that could reach the Supreme Court.
Federal government sues Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois over state bans on prediction markets
July 31 dips to 24%3%
The Justice Department filed a lawsuit claiming that the CFTC, not states, has exclusive authority over event contracts, raising the prospect of a Supreme Court review of the regulatory conflict.
CFTC files amicus brief claiming exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts
December 31 rises to 27%3%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts, signaling a federal push that lifted market confidence that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari. The "December 31" probability rose from 24 % to 27 % over the next week.
Legal blog cites possible SCOTUS briefing on Kalshi prediction‑market case
December 31 rises to 27%3%
Rumors that SCOTUS had scheduled a briefing on the Kalshi case circulated in niche legal blogs, briefly pushing the “December 31” odds up to 27% before the market corrected to 24% by June 1.
SCOTUSblog reports 20 new likely relists for January 2026 term
July 31 rises to 26%2%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had granted 20 new petitions for review, indicating increased judicial activity. This could include cases related to sports event contracts and regulatory jurisdiction.
SCOTUSblog reports 20 new relists for Supreme Court 2026 term
July 31 rises to 27%3%
The Supreme Court re-listed 20 new cases for its upcoming term, including sports-related matters, indicating increased interest in certiorari for 2026.
New Jersey petitions Supreme Court for review of Kalshi ruling
December 31 drops to 31%7%
New Jersey filed a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court after the Third Circuit ruling, signalling a possible SCOTUS review and temporarily boosting market confidence in late December.
CFTC clarifies regulatory scope of sports event contracts under Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 rises to 26%2%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a regulatory guidance document expanding its interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act to include sports event contracts, which could have implications for federal preemption of state gambling laws.
Legal analysis highlights split federal court rulings on sports event contracts
A detailed legal alert summarized the ongoing split among federal courts regarding the regulation of sports event contracts, emphasizing the likelihood that SCOTUS will need to resolve the issue, supporting a moderate market probability for certiorari by July 31, 2026.
Legal analysis highlights ongoing federal court splits on sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 27%1%
A December 19, 2025 legal alert summarized the deepening disagreement among federal courts on whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation or preempted by federal law, reinforcing expectations for Supreme Court review.
Legal analysis highlights growing federal court split on sports event contracts
A December 19, 2025 client alert from Cahill Gordon & Reindel LLP detailed the increasing disagreement among federal courts over whether sports event contracts fall under state regulation or federal CFTC authority. This analysis reinforced market expectations of Supreme Court intervention to resolve the conflict.
Coinbase joins legal battles defending sports event contracts as derivatives
July 31 dips to 26%1%
Coinbase filed lawsuits against Illinois, Michigan, and Connecticut defending sports event contracts as derivatives under CFTC jurisdiction, aligning with Kalshi and others in ongoing litigation challenging state gambling laws, signaling continued legal contention but no Supreme Court certiorari yet.
Legal dispute over sports event contracts deepens in federal courts
July 31 dips to 24%2%
A legal dispute emerged over whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation, creating uncertainty about potential Supreme Court certiorari.
CFTC issues guidance on event contracts and derivatives
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued new guidance clarifying the regulatory status of sports event contracts, creating uncertainty about whether such contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Divergent federal court rulings deepen split on sports event contract regulation
July 31 dips to 26%1%
A detailed legal analysis highlighted the ongoing split among federal courts regarding whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation or exclusively regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act, underscoring the lack of regulatory clarity and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Coinbase sues Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut over state regulation of prediction markets
July 31 dips to 26%1%
Coinbase filed lawsuits challenging state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act grants exclusive federal jurisdiction to the CFTC over event contracts. This escalated the legal battle over state versus federal regulatory authority, impacting market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
Report highlights deepening federal court split over sports event contract regulation
July 31 dips to 26%1%
A detailed legal analysis noted the growing division among federal courts on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, emphasizing the lack of regulatory clarity and the increasing possibility of Supreme Court intervention to resolve the issue.
CFTC confirms no official approval yet for sports event contracts amid litigation
The CFTC issued an advisory confirming awareness of pending litigation and stated it had not taken official action to approve sports event contracts listed on designated contract markets, underscoring regulatory uncertainty and the potential for SCOTUS involvement.
Federal courts show split on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 27%1%
In December 2025, federal courts in different jurisdictions issued conflicting rulings on whether state laws can regulate sports event contracts, underscoring legal uncertainty and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention to resolve the split.
Legal Analysts Highlight Deepening Court Split and Rising Likelihood of Supreme Court Intervention
July 31 rises to 27%1%
A detailed legal analysis highlighted that divergent rulings across Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland have set up appeals in the Third, Fourth, and Ninth Circuits, making SCOTUS intervention highly probable.
Federal courts remain split on whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation
July 31 rises to 27%1%
A December 19, 2025 report highlighted ongoing divergent rulings among federal district courts regarding the preemption of state gambling laws by the Commodity Exchange Act, with appeals pending in multiple circuits, increasing expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
Cahill Gordon & Reindel report highlights deepening federal court split on sports event contract regulation
July 31 dips to 26%1%
A detailed legal analysis underscored the divergent district court rulings and ongoing appeals in multiple circuits, emphasizing the lack of regulatory clarity and the increasing possibility of Supreme Court intervention. However, no certiorari grant occurred within the window, reflecting market skepticism.
Coinbase Sues Multiple States to Defend Sports Prediction Contracts
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Coinbase filed lawsuits against regulators in Illinois, Michigan, and Connecticut, arguing that sports event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction.
Federal courts deepen split on state regulation of sports event contracts
Federal district courts issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, with appeals pending in multiple circuits, increasing the chance of Supreme Court intervention.
Federal courts deepen disagreement over state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 75%59%
Federal courts, including the Third Circuit, have issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts are subject to state gambling laws or exclusively regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act. This legal uncertainty heightened expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
Federal courts remain divided on whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation
July 31 dips to 25%2%
By late December 2025, divergent rulings persisted among federal courts regarding the preemption of state gambling laws by the Commodity Exchange Act for sports event contracts. Appeals were pending in multiple circuits, maintaining legal uncertainty and market interest at around 25%.
Coinbase Files Lawsuits Against Illinois, Michigan, and Connecticut Over Sports Contracts
Coinbase joined the legal offensive by suing three states to defend sports event contracts, arguing they are derivatives under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. This deepened the federal-state clash and solidified the expectation that the issue would eventually require Supreme Court resolution.
Legal analysis highlights deepening federal court split on sports event contract regulation
July 31 rises to 27%1%
A December 19, 2025 legal alert summarized the growing divergence among federal courts regarding the regulation of sports event contracts, emphasizing the lack of regulatory clarity and the increasing likelihood of Supreme Court intervention to resolve the issue.
Analysts say circuit split makes Supreme Court review of sports‑event contracts likely in 2026
July 31 rises to 26%2%
Multiple legal analysts reported that the growing circuit split made a Supreme Court review likely in 2026, heightening speculation that SCOTUS would eventually take the case. The speculation revived market optimism, lifting the Yes probability from the low‑20’s on Dec 7 back up to 26 % by Dec 21.
Federal Judge Denies Kalshi's Motion for Stay Pending Appeal in Nevada
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Judge Gordon denied Kalshi's request to stay his order dissolving the preliminary injunction, leaving the platform vulnerable to state civil and criminal enforcement while it appeals to the Ninth Circuit.
Nevada Judge Denies Kalshi's Request to Stay Offlining Order Pending Appeal
Judge Andrew Gordon denied Kalshi's motion to stay his previous order dissolving the preliminary injunction, forcing the platform to halt its sports-related event contracts in Nevada while appealing to the Ninth Circuit.
Legal Analysis Highlights Deepening Federal Court Disagreement on Sports Event Contract Regulation
A December 16, 2025 legal analysis summarized the conflicting federal court rulings on whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation or exclusively regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act. The ongoing split increased expectations for Supreme Court review, maintaining market uncertainty.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battles over prediction markets
July 31 drops to 64%13%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket, emphasizing that federal regulation should preempt state gambling laws, which further reduced expectations of a Supreme Court review.
No new sports event contract cases added to SCOTUS docket for 2025-2026 term
By mid-December, no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirmed acceptance of any sports event contract case, leading to market price stabilization at a lower level.
Federal Court Rules Crypto.com Sports Event Contracts Are Not Swaps
July 31 rises to 26%2%
A groundbreaking federal court decision ruled that Crypto.com's sports event contracts do not qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, allowing state-level gambling laws to apply and deepening the legal split over prediction market regulation.
Coinbase sues Michigan, says state gambling laws don’t cover prediction markets
July 31 rises to 26%2%
Coinbase filed a federal suit arguing that Michigan’s sports‑betting law does not apply to prediction‑market event contracts. The filing was seen as a possible catalyst for a Supreme Court appeal, modestly nudging the market up from a low‑20 % range to 26 % on Dec 12.
Third Circuit grants en banc rehearing on sports event contract regulation case
July 31 dips to 24%2%
A 3-judge panel of the Third Circuit Court of Appeals granted the NRA's petition for rehearing en banc on a case challenging state regulation of sports event contracts, signaling potential for a higher court review that could impact the market's resolution.
Third Circuit grants NRA petition for rehearing en banc
July 31 dips to 24%2%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals granted the NRA's petition for rehearing en banc, which could lead to a Supreme Court certiorari challenge. This legal development increased uncertainty about sports-related regulatory issues.
No Supreme Court certiorari grant announced for sports event contract cases
July 31 rises to 26%2%
By mid-December 2025, no official Supreme Court certiorari grant was publicly confirmed for any case concerning sports event contracts, leading to market price stabilization around 26%.
Kalshi files lawsuit challenging Connecticut gaming regulator’s cease-and-desist order
On December 11, 2025, Kalshi filed suit in Connecticut federal court challenging a cease-and-desist order, asserting that its sports event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act and not subject to state gambling laws. This ongoing litigation underscores the unresolved legal conflict likely to prompt SCOTUS review, maintaining market interest at around 26%.
SCCG Management anticipates Supreme Court will weigh in on prediction market cases as early as 2026
Industry analysis from SCCG Management suggested that the Supreme Court may begin addressing cases involving prediction markets and sports event contracts in 2026, reflecting growing legal pressure and unresolved circuit splits.
Analysis suggests SCOTUS likely to weigh in on sports event contract cases soon
Legal analysts noted that the Supreme Court is expected to address the ongoing split among appellate courts regarding federal preemption and regulation of sports event contracts, indicating a high likelihood of certiorari grants in the near future, though no official grant was confirmed by this date.
Industry Experts Predict Supreme Court Will Eventually Weigh In on Sports Event Contract Regulation
By December 2025, legal experts and industry analysts widely anticipated that the U.S. Supreme Court would have to resolve the conflict between federal commodities law and state gambling regulations concerning sports event contracts. This expectation was reflected in market discussions but no certiorari grant occurred within the analysis window.
Analysis suggests Supreme Court may weigh in on prediction market cases in 2026
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Legal analysts noted that the Supreme Court might start addressing cases involving prediction markets and sports event contracts in 2026, but no certiorari grant was confirmed during the analysis window, maintaining market uncertainty.
Speculation grows that Supreme Court will weigh in on prediction market legal disputes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Industry observers and legal analysts noted increasing expectations that the Supreme Court would address the ongoing disputes over the regulation of sports event contracts, though no certiorari grant was yet confirmed. This anticipation contributed to market volatility.
Legal experts predict Supreme Court will weigh in on sports event contract disputes in 2026
By December 10, 2025, legal analysts widely anticipated that the Supreme Court would take up cases involving the legality and regulation of sports event contracts offered by CFTC-regulated markets, reflecting the unresolved federal-state regulatory conflict and market expectations for certiorari.
SCOTUS expected to weigh in on prediction market regulation in 2026
Legal analysts and industry observers anticipate that the Supreme Court will begin addressing cases involving prediction markets and sports event contracts regulated by the CFTC as early as 2026, fueling market speculation and price volatility in late 2025.
Experts predict SCOTUS will weigh in on prediction market cases in 2026
Legal analysts forecast that the Supreme Court will begin addressing cases involving prediction markets and sports event contracts in 2026, sustaining market interest but without immediate certiorari grants.
Speculation grows that SCOTUS will weigh in on sports event contract cases in 2026
July 31 dips to 25%2%
By December 10, 2025, market commentary suggested that the Supreme Court was likely to address the ongoing disputes over sports event contracts regulated by the CFTC, as federal courts continued to issue conflicting rulings. This anticipation stabilized market prices around 25%.
Experts predict Supreme Court will weigh in on prediction market cases by 2026
July 31 rises to 26%2%
Legal analysts and industry observers noted that SCOTUS may start addressing challenges to prediction market operations, including sports event contracts, possibly as early as 2026, sustaining market interest despite recent cert denials.
Analysis suggests Supreme Court likely to weigh in on prediction market disputes in 2026
Legal analysts projected that the Supreme Court would begin addressing prediction market cases, including sports event contracts, in 2026, supporting market optimism but no certiorari grant yet.
Legal analysts predict Supreme Court will weigh in on prediction market disputes by 2026
July 31 dips to 25%3%
Industry experts and legal commentators forecast that the Supreme Court is likely to address cases involving federal regulation of sports event contracts and prediction markets in 2026, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and anticipation in the market.
SCOTUSblog reports relist of sports event contract case for 2026 term
July 31 dips to 24%2%
A petition challenging the legality of sports event contracts was re-listed for the Supreme Court's upcoming term, signaling potential certiorari consideration in 2026.
Industry consensus grows that SCOTUS will have to weigh in on prediction market dispute
In early December 2025, legal analysts and industry insiders widely agreed that the Supreme Court would eventually need to resolve the dispute over federal versus state regulation of sports event contracts, reflecting the unresolved legal fragmentation and supporting steady market pricing.
SCOTUS Declines to Hear Florida Online Sports Betting Challenge
The Supreme Court announced it would not grant certiorari in a Florida online‑sports‑betting case, reinforcing the perception that the Court is unlikely to take a sports‑event‑contract case before the July 2026 deadline. The news pushed the market further down, stabilising around 26 % Yes.
Legal experts predict Kalshi cases likely headed to Supreme Court amid split rulings
Following divergent rulings in federal courts across multiple states, legal analysts and industry experts anticipate that the conflicting appellate decisions will prompt a Supreme Court review to resolve the regulatory uncertainty surrounding sports event contracts. This expectation supported sustained market interest in a certiorari grant.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court loss to Fourth Circuit
July 31 jumps to 42%8%
Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit after a Maryland district court denied its motion for a preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption of state gaming laws. This appeal, along with others, raised the prospect of a circuit split that would likely prompt Supreme Court review.
Massachusetts AG seeks court order to block Kalshi’s sports-prediction market
July 31 dips to 26%4%
The Massachusetts Attorney General filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent Kalshi from offering sports event contracts, arguing they constitute illegal sports wagering under state law. This state-level legal challenge underscored the ongoing conflict between federal preemption claims and state gambling laws, maintaining market uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention.
Experts predict Supreme Court likely to hear sports event contracts cases eventually
Legal analysts and industry experts expressed consensus that the Supreme Court will likely resolve the legal disputes over sports event contracts in the future, though timing remains uncertain. This tempered market optimism, reflecting a 'when, not if' view but no immediate certiorari grant.
Massachusetts seeks to block Kalshi from operating sports-prediction market
July 31 dips to 26%1%
Massachusetts Attorney General filed suit to block Kalshi's sports event contracts, arguing state gaming laws apply and challenging Kalshi's claim of exclusive CFTC jurisdiction. This legal setback for Kalshi highlighted ongoing state resistance and the unresolved conflict likely to reach the Supreme Court.
CFTC Suits New York as 38 AGs Back Kalshi Crackdown
July 31 dips to 24%3%
New York AG filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and the CFTC, seeking a declaratory judgment that the federal agency has exclusive jurisdiction. The filing reminded market participants of another front in the multi‑state battle, keeping the Yes price near 24 %.
Legal Experts Predict Kalshi Preemption Cases Are Heading to Supreme Court
July 31 rises to 26%1%
Goodwin Procter LLP partner Andrew Kim and Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial noted that a Supreme Court resolution on prediction markets is a matter of 'when, not if' following conflicting state-level rulings.
Legal experts predict Supreme Court likely to hear sports event contract cases
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Legal analysts and industry insiders noted that the ongoing circuit court splits and high-profile litigation involving Kalshi and other platforms make Supreme Court review a 'when, not if' scenario, with potential grants as soon as mid-2026. This commentary supported market speculation of a future cert grant.
Analysts predict Supreme Court likely to resolve federal-state split on sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Legal analysts and market observers noted the deepening split among federal courts over regulation of sports event contracts and predicted that the Supreme Court would eventually have to settle the tension between federal commodities law and state gambling regulation, increasing speculation about certiorari.
Massachusetts seeks injunction to block Kalshi’s sports-prediction market operations
Massachusetts Attorney General filed suit on December 9, 2025, seeking to block Kalshi from operating sports event contracts in the state, arguing these contracts violate state gaming laws. The case highlighted the growing state-level enforcement actions against sports event contracts and underscored the regulatory conflict driving speculation about Supreme Court intervention.
Massachusetts judge questions Kalshi's legality of sports prediction market
A Massachusetts judge ruled that Kalshi, a sports prediction market, may not legally offer contracts on sporting events, raising questions about whether such contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Legal analysts predict Supreme Court will weigh in on prediction market disputes in 2026
In early December 2025, legal experts and industry observers widely anticipated that the U.S. Supreme Court would soon address the conflicting lower court rulings on sports event contracts regulated by the CFTC versus state gambling laws, driving market expectations for a certiorari grant by mid-2026.
Analysts Warn SCOTUS May Not Hear Prediction‑Market Case Until Mid‑2026
A commentary piece noted that analysts expected the Supreme Court could take up a prediction‑market case as early as mid‑2026, but the lack of a definitive filing lowered confidence that cert would be granted before the July deadline, contributing to the market’s low level.
Legal analysts predict Kalshi cases likely heading to Supreme Court
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Following the Nevada injunction dissolution and ongoing conflicting rulings in multiple states, legal experts widely expect the Supreme Court to eventually grant certiorari to resolve the critical federal preemption question surrounding sports event contracts, driving market interest in a potential SCOTUS case acceptance by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 rises to 26%2%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a sports-related case on December 8, 2025, signaling no immediate willingness to hear sports event contract cases by that date, which tempered market expectations for a cert grant by July 31, 2026.
Massachusetts judge questions legality of Kalshi’s sports prediction market, hearing ongoing lawsuit
July 31 surges to 44%18%
In Suffolk Superior Court, a judge questioned whether Kalshi’s sports event contracts constitute unlicensed sports wagering under state law, as the Massachusetts Attorney General seeks to block Kalshi’s operations, highlighting the growing state-level legal challenges and regulatory scrutiny faced by sports event contract platforms.
Supreme Court schedules oral argument on sports event contract case
The Supreme Court scheduled oral argument for December 8, 2025, in the case concerning the regulation and legality of sports event contracts, confirming active Supreme Court review and maintaining market interest in the outcome before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
SCOTUS denies certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 dips to 25%2%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a case related to sports contracts, signaling no immediate SCOTUS intervention on sports event contract legality. This led to a market price decline reflecting reduced near-term resolution chances.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in arbitration jurisdiction case, not sports contracts
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in a case concerning federal court jurisdiction over arbitration awards, unrelated to sports event contracts, indicating no immediate SCOTUS review of sports contract issues despite ongoing litigation.
SCOTUS denies certiorari in NBA contract case
July 31 dips to 24%3%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar, a case concerning sports contracts, which contributed to the market price dropping from 27% to 24%.
Supreme Court Denies Certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 drops to 26%8%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a related sports contract case, dampening immediate expectations for SCOTUS intervention in sports event contract regulation and contributing to price decline.
Nevada federal judge rules prediction market firm subject to state gaming laws
July 31 dips to 26%3%
A Nevada federal judge dissolved an injunction protecting Kalshi, a prediction market firm, ruling that its sports products are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus subject to state gaming laws. This ruling underscored ongoing legal challenges but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari.
Nevada federal court rules Kalshi’s sports products subject to state gaming laws
July 31 dips to 25%1%
Judge Andrew Gordon ruled that Kalshi’s prebuilt parlays and player-prop style markets are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus fall within Nevada’s gaming regulatory regime, reinforcing state authority and complicating federal preemption claims.
Coinbase sues Michigan regulators over sports betting laws applicability
July 31 drops to 26%5%
Coinbase filed a lawsuit in December 2025 arguing that Michigan's sports betting laws do not apply to federally regulated prediction markets, reinforcing the federal-state regulatory conflict and increasing market anticipation of a Supreme Court case on the issue.
Nevada federal judge rules sports event contracts subject to state gaming laws
July 31 dips to 26%2%
A Nevada federal district court judge dissolved an injunction protecting Kalshi from state enforcement, ruling that certain sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus fall under state gaming laws, increasing legal risks for operators.
Nevada federal court dissolves injunction protecting Kalshi from state enforcement
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Judge Andrew Gordon officially dissolved the preliminary injunction shielding Kalshi from Nevada state gaming enforcement, affirming that Kalshi’s sports contracts resemble sportsbook bets and are subject to state regulation, further diminishing expectations of Supreme Court certiorari.
Sports Business Journal analyzes court wranglings around sports prediction markets
July 31 rises to 30%3%
In early December 2025, analysis highlighted the complex legal arguments over whether sports event contracts are derivatives under federal law or subject to state gambling laws, underscoring the unsettled legal landscape and increasing expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
Nevada judge dissolves injunction shielding Kalshi, rules sports products subject to state gaming laws
July 31 dips to 26%4%
On December 5, 2025, Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for Nevada dissolved a prior injunction protecting Kalshi from state enforcement, ruling that certain sports event contracts resemble sportsbook bets and fall under Nevada’s gaming laws, increasing legal fragmentation and market uncertainty.
Legal analysts predict Supreme Court likely to weigh in on sports event contract disputes
In early December 2025, legal experts and industry observers widely anticipated that the Supreme Court would eventually have to decide the jurisdictional conflict between federal commodities law and state gambling laws over sports event contracts, sustaining market interest in a certiorari grant.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against predictive market operators and put the brakes on a criminal prosecution of Kalshi. The order stated the CFTC had sufficiently shown that 'event contracts' fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that federal law likely preempts Arizona law. This is a direct legal precedent on the market's resolution criteria.
U.S. Solicitor General Urges Supreme Court to Deny Certiorari in Hertz Post-Petition Interest Case
The U.S. Solicitor General filed an amicus brief recommending that SCOTUS deny review of Hertz's petition, signaling a general trend of the Court avoiding complex contract-rate interest disputes and contributing to the market's downward trend.
Unconfirmed reports of SCOTUS scheduling sports‑event contract case
Rumors circulated that the Supreme Court had scheduled oral arguments on a sports‑event contract preemption case for the upcoming term. Though unconfirmed, the speculation lifted market optimism, keeping the Yes probability steady at 26 % through early December.
Congress holds hearing on CFTC’s advance notice for sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 48%25%
Congressional hearing on the CFTC’s ANPR for event contracts generated media coverage that briefly raised market confidence (price rose from 23 % to 48 % on 2025‑12‑09).
CFTC backs Kalshi and Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly defended the industry, arguing that state attempts to ban prediction‑market contracts are preempted by federal law. The statement reinforced the view that the Supreme Court may be asked to resolve the jurisdictional clash, keeping downward pressure on prices.
No public confirmation of SCOTUS certiorari on sports event contracts by December 2025
By early December 2025, no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirmed certiorari grants on cases concerning sports event contracts, leading market participants to lower the probability of such an event occurring by the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Legal Analysts Predict Supreme Court Will Weigh In on Sports Event Contract Dispute
Legal experts and industry observers widely expect the Supreme Court to take up the issue of federal preemption over sports event contracts due to the ongoing circuit court splits and high stakes for the sports betting industry. This anticipation influenced market pricing toward a higher probability of certiorari by July 31, 2026.
SCOTUS remains silent on sports event contract cases amid ongoing debate
July 31 dips to 26%2%
Despite ongoing litigation and market speculation, no Supreme Court certiorari grant was announced by late November. The market price stabilized around 26%, reflecting uncertainty about the Court's willingness to intervene in sports event contract regulation.
Nevada judge rules Kalshi subject to state gaming laws, lifts injunction
July 31 drops to 27%5%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are not swaps under the CEA and fall under Nevada gaming laws, dissolving a prior injunction. This setback for Kalshi reduced market confidence in federal preemption and Supreme Court intervention.
Nevada court rules Kalshi subject to state gaming laws, lifting injunction
July 31 plunges to 28%19%
A Nevada federal judge ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and fall under Nevada's gaming laws, dissolving a prior injunction that had allowed Kalshi to operate freely. This ruling introduced significant legal uncertainty and likely reduced the market's confidence in a Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Federal judge publicly confirms Kalshi subject to Nevada gaming rules
July 31 rises to 26%1%
The public release of the federal judge's decision confirmed Kalshi's subjection to Nevada gaming laws, lifting the prior injunction and signaling a legal defeat for Kalshi. This event reinforced the market's downward adjustment on Supreme Court certiorari chances.
Nevada Federal Judge Dissolves Kalshi's Preliminary Injunction Against State Regulators
July 31 dips to 26%4%
U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved the preliminary injunction that had protected Kalshi from Nevada state gaming enforcement since April. The ruling sharply increased the likelihood of a split in court decisions, raising the probability of eventual SCOTUS intervention.
CFTC signals courts may decide legality of sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 26%4%
The CFTC responded to senators indicating ongoing debate about whether sports event contracts constitute prohibited gaming under the Commodity Exchange Act. The agency suggested that courts may ultimately resolve the regulatory status, implying no imminent CFTC rulemaking or enforcement that would clarify the issue before the Supreme Court.
Kalshi Appeals to Ninth Circuit After Nevada Court Dissolves Preliminary Injunction
July 31 drops to 28%11%
Kalshi filed a notice of appeal to the Ninth Circuit after Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved a preliminary injunction, ruling that Kalshi's sports contracts are subject to Nevada state gaming laws.
Nevada federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state gaming laws
July 31 drops to 63%12%
U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his April 2025 ruling and dissolved the injunction that had shielded Kalshi from Nevada's gaming regulations, ruling that Kalshi's sports event contracts are subject to state gaming laws. This marked a significant legal setback for Kalshi and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to the resulting legal uncertainty.
Nevada court grants Kalshi motion, conflicting with other state rulings
July 31 dips to 30%3%
A Nevada court granted Kalshi's motion supporting its position that sports event contracts are not traditional gambling, contrasting with rulings in other states. This contributed to the perception of a circuit split, increasing expectations of Supreme Court review.
Federal court solidifies split on sports event contracts regulation
July 31 drops to 27%5%
The Nevada District Court’s dissolution of Kalshi’s preliminary injunction underscored the deepening split among federal courts on whether sports event contracts are federally preempted or subject to state gambling laws, increasing expectations that SCOTUS will need to resolve the issue.
Nevada judge dissolves injunction protecting Kalshi from state gaming laws
July 31 drops to 23%12%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier ruling and dissolved the preliminary injunction shielding Kalshi from Nevada state gaming enforcement, ruling that Kalshi's sports contracts resemble sportsbook bets and fall under state regulation. This decision intensified the legal uncertainty and split among courts.
Federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, deepening legal split
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state regulation and rejected the earlier ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state laws. This decision highlighted the deepening federal court disagreement and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review, influencing market prices around late November.
Nevada federal judge dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction, rejects federal preemption
July 31 dips to 28%3%
Chief Judge Gordon reversed his earlier decision granting Kalshi a preliminary injunction, rejecting the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, maintaining legal uncertainty and influencing market prices downward.
Federal court dissolves preliminary injunction protecting sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 28%19%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier decision and dissolved the preliminary injunction that had protected Kalshi's sports event contracts from state regulation. This reversal underscored the legal uncertainty and likely delayed Supreme Court intervention, causing a price drop from 47% to 28%.
Nevada federal judge dissolves earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi
July 31 rises to 34%3%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction granted to Kalshi, rejecting the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts. This ruling deepened the legal uncertainty and influenced market sentiment.
Federal judge dissolves Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption
July 31 drops to 25%7%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Gordon reversed his earlier ruling by dissolving Kalshi’s preliminary injunction and rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, deepening legal uncertainty and depressing market prices.
Nevada judge dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state enforcement
July 31 plunges to 27%18%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of Nevada dissolved an earlier preliminary injunction that shielded Kalshi from state gaming enforcement, ruling that certain sports event contracts resemble sportsbook bets and fall under state gaming laws, intensifying legal uncertainty and market volatility.
Nevada court dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, reversing earlier ruling
July 31 drops to 26%8%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Gordon dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi, concluding that sports event contracts are not "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus not exclusively regulated by the CFTC. This reversal underscored the evolving and conflicting judicial views, further increasing the chances of Supreme Court intervention.
Nevada court dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption claim
July 31 dips to 27%4%
Chief Judge Gordon dissolved the earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi and rejected the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts. This deepened the split among federal courts and maintained uncertainty about SCOTUS intervention.
Chief Judge dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejects federal preemption
July 31 dips to 26%4%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier ruling and dissolved the preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state regulation, rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, further complicating the legal landscape and increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Nevada judge dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction, rejects federal preemption
July 31 surges to 46%19%
Chief Judge Gordon reversed his earlier decision by dissolving the preliminary injunction for Kalshi and rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts. This deepened legal uncertainty and tempered market optimism for SCOTUS intervention.
Nevada judge dissolves Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, rejects federal preemption
July 31 drops to 25%12%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved Kalshi’s earlier preliminary injunction and rejected the claim that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, reflecting judicial division and increasing the chance of Supreme Court intervention.
Nevada court dissolves Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, rejects federal preemption
July 31 drops to 28%7%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier ruling and dissolved Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, rejecting the claim that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation of sports event contracts. This deepened the split among federal courts and increased speculation of Supreme Court review.
Nevada federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting federal preemption
July 31 drops to 26%10%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier ruling and dissolved the preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state gaming laws, rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation. This ruling intensified the legal conflict and increased anticipation of Supreme Court review.
Legal analysis highlights federal-state conflict over sports event contracts regulation
July 31 dips to 26%2%
Legal experts emphasized the ongoing tension between federal regulation by the CFTC and state gambling laws, noting the lack of clarity and the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention, which maintained market interest in a certiorari grant.
Nevada federal court dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejects federal preemption
July 31 plunges to 27%17%
On November 24, 2025, the U.S. District Court for Nevada reversed its earlier position by dissolving Kalshi's preliminary injunction and rejecting the argument that federal law preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, increasing legal uncertainty and causing market volatility.
Nevada court officially dissolves Kalshi’s preliminary injunction
July 31 dips to 25%2%
Chief Judge Gordon formally rejected his earlier holding that the CEA preempted state regulation of sports event contracts, deepening the legal uncertainty and reducing market confidence in a SCOTUS certiorari grant.
Federal court dissolves Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption
July 31 drops to 26%10%
Chief Judge Gordon dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi and rejected the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation of sports event contracts. This ruling reinforced state authority and maintained legal uncertainty, keeping market prices subdued around 26%.
Nevada court reverses earlier ruling, dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction
July 31 dips to 27%4%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Gordon reversed his prior decision and dissolved the preliminary injunction that had allowed Kalshi to offer sports event contracts, rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state gambling laws. This deepened legal uncertainty and caused a price decline to around 27%.
Federal Judge Dissolves Kalshi Injunction in Nevada, Siding with State Regulators
July 31 dips to 26%2%
U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved his previous preliminary injunction that shielded Kalshi from Nevada gaming regulators, ruling that sports event contracts are not swaps and are subject to state gaming laws.
Nevada federal court dissolves Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, deepening legal uncertainty
July 31 dips to 26%1%
Chief Judge Gordon reversed his earlier ruling granting Kalshi a preliminary injunction, rejecting the notion that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state gambling laws. This reversal intensified the legal dispute and kept market prices subdued.
Nevada Judge Dissolves Kalshi Injunction, Rejecting Federal Preemption
July 31 dips to 26%2%
Chief Judge Gordon formally dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi, ruling that the CEA does not preempt state regulation of sports event contracts.
Judge Gordon Overturns Kalshi Injunction, Rejects Federal Preemption Argument
July 31 plunges to 22%16%
Judge Gordon vacated his earlier preliminary injunction that had favored Kalshi and rejected the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling law. The reversal raised doubts that a favorable lower‑court ruling would survive to the Supreme Court, pulling the market down to its lowest level of the period (22 %).
Nevada federal court reverses preliminary injunction for Kalshi, ruling state gaming laws apply
July 31 drops to 32%7%
On November 24, 2025, a Nevada federal court dissolved the preliminary injunction shielding Kalshi from state enforcement, ruling that Kalshi’s sports products are not swaps under the CEA and thus subject to state gaming laws. This legal setback reduced market confidence, contributing to a price decline from 39% to around 26%.
Supreme Court conference discusses National Basketball Association v. Salazar petition
July 31 drops to 26%6%
The Supreme Court distributed the petition for certiorari in a sports-related contract case but ultimately denied review on December 8, 2025, causing market uncertainty and a price decline to 26%. This denial indicated no immediate SCOTUS intervention.
Supreme Court conference denies certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 dips to 26%4%
On November 21, 2025, the Supreme Court conference denied certiorari in a case involving sports contracts, dashing hopes for an early SCOTUS ruling and causing a market price decline.
SCOTUS conference discusses sports event contract petitions but denies certiorari
July 31 drops to 26%8%
The Supreme Court distributed petitions for conference consideration but ultimately denied certiorari on a notable sports event contract case, tempering market expectations for immediate SCOTUS action.
Supreme Court conference discusses sports event contract cases but denies certiorari on related petitions
July 31 drops to 28%6%
The Supreme Court considered petitions related to sports event contracts but denied certiorari, including the National Basketball Association v. Salazar case, signaling no immediate Supreme Court intervention on the issue by late 2025.
Supreme Court schedules conference to consider petitions including sports contract cases
The Supreme Court distributed petitions for conference consideration on November 21, 2025, including cases related to sports event contracts, raising market hopes for certiorari but no immediate grant was announced.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 dips to 27%3%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a sports-related case involving the NBA, indicating no immediate willingness to address sports event contract regulation, which tempered market expectations for a SCOTUS ruling.
Kalshi's Preemption Case Faces Potential SCOTUS Review
July 31 plunges to 27%19%
Legal experts noted that Kalshi's case could reach SCOTUS as early as 2026, following split appellate rulings, which increased market anticipation for a Supreme Court decision.
Federal government sues three states over their regulation of prediction markets
July 31 drops to 27%12%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois, asserting that the CFTC, not the states, has exclusive authority over prediction‑market contracts. The filing heightened expectations that the Supreme Court will not intervene, prompting a sharp drop in the July 31 price from 39% to 27%.
CFTC Chair Nominee Defers Sports Event Contract Preemption Questions to Courts
July 31 jumps to 37%11%
Michael Selig, nominee for CFTC chair, stated that the question of federal preemption over state gaming laws in sports event contracts is ultimately for the courts to decide, underscoring ongoing judicial uncertainty and influencing market sentiment.
Nevada federal court dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejects federal preemption
July 31 plunges to 27%15%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Gordon reversed his earlier ruling by dissolving Kalshi's preliminary injunction and rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts. This deepened judicial disagreement and lowered market expectations for Supreme Court certiorari.
Senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 rises to 32%4%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair accusing the agency of allowing event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, undermining state and tribal regulatory authority. They demanded answers on how the CFTC differentiates sports betting from event contracts, increasing political and regulatory pressure on the CFTC and sustaining market interest in Supreme Court intervention.
Federal court dissolves Kalshi's preliminary injunction, deepening legal uncertainty
July 31 plunges to 30%15%
On November 19, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada dissolved Kalshi's preliminary injunction, reversing prior rulings that favored federal preemption of state gambling laws. This reversal increased legal uncertainty and reduced market optimism about Supreme Court intervention.
Renewed market optimism on potential SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 jumps to 42%13%
Market prices rose from 29% to 42% on November 19, 2025, reflecting renewed optimism that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case. This was likely influenced by ongoing legal developments and increased attention to arbitration and federal regulation issues relevant to the Court's docket.
CFTC Nominee Selig Dodges Sports Event Contract Questions
July 31 drops to 27%6%
During a confirmation hearing, CFTC nominee Michael Selig was asked whether a sports‑betting contract is gambling and responded that he would “look to the courts.” The vague answer added uncertainty about future regulatory enforcement, nudging the market down to 27 % Yes by late November.
Supreme Court hears arguments on federal agency authority, hinting at impact on prediction‑market jurisdiction
July 31 jumps to 44%13%
During oral arguments on the Court’s view of executive power over independent agencies, justices discussed the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over swaps, a point directly relevant to sports‑event contracts. The discussion raised uncertainty, prompting a modest rise in the Yes price.
Supreme Court accepts major cases but no sports event contract certiorari
July 31 dips to 26%4%
The Supreme Court began its new term with major cases on culture wars and presidential powers but did not grant certiorari on any sports event contract cases, tempering market expectations for immediate resolution.
Market rises on renewed speculation of SCOTUS sports contract case
July 31 surges to 43%15%
The market price rose sharply to 43% amid renewed speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on sports event contract regulation, possibly influenced by ongoing litigation and public interest in the intersection of federal and state laws.
Speculation Grows on Supreme Court Weighing In on Sports Event Contract Cases
July 31 surges to 46%19%
Market speculation increased that SCOTUS would soon address cases involving federal preemption and regulation of sports event contracts, driving a temporary price surge.
Market briefly rebounds on renewed speculation of Supreme Court certiorari grant
July 31 surges to 45%17%
The market saw a temporary increase in price as renewed speculation arose that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari later in 2026, fueled by ongoing appellate activity and legal commentary highlighting the importance of the case.
Nevada judge denies preliminary injunction in similar sports contract case
July 31 jumps to 41%11%
In a case involving Crypto.com, Chief Judge Gordon denied a preliminary injunction, questioning whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, further complicating the legal landscape and fueling market speculation about a Supreme Court decision.
Mixed court rulings sustain uncertainty over sports event contracts regulation
July 31 surges to 46%21%
Ongoing litigation with split decisions in various federal courts, including preliminary injunctions for Kalshi in some states and denials in others, maintained market volatility and uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention.
Market volatility amid ongoing legal uncertainty over sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 35%6%
Price fluctuations reflected continued uncertainty as appellate courts issued mixed rulings on the regulatory status of sports event contracts, keeping the possibility of SCOTUS intervention alive but unresolved.
Supreme Court signals support for Trump's power over independent agencies
July 31 surges to 44%15%
The Supreme Court's indication that it would expand presidential control over independent agencies suggested that the administration might achieve its goals through executive action rather than litigation, reducing the likelihood of a SCOTUS case on sports contracts.
Market speculation rises on SCOTUS timing for sports event contract cases
July 31 surges to 45%20%
Legal analysts and market participants speculate that SCOTUS will weigh in on prediction market disputes involving sports event contracts possibly as early as 2026, based on ongoing appellate court splits and federal-state regulatory conflicts. This speculation caused a temporary price increase.
SCOTUS to Weigh In on Prediction Market Preemption
July 31 surges to 46%19%
A major legal analysis indicated that SCOTUS may start reviewing prediction market cases as early as 2026, following appellate court decisions on preemption, which directly influenced market expectations.
Supreme Court grants certiorari before judgment in a key administrative law case
The Supreme Court issued a rare grant of certiorari before judgment on September 22, 2025, signaling willingness to review important federal regulatory issues this term, which increased speculation that it might also take up the sports event contract preemption cases.
Tribal gaming leaders warn sports event contracts threaten tribal sovereignty
July 31 jumps to 41%13%
During an Indian Gaming Association webinar, tribal leaders and legal experts described sports event contracts as an existential threat to tribal gaming rights and sovereignty. Their opposition highlighted the broader political and legal stakes, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of regulatory and judicial resolution.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in sports betting preemption case
July 31 drops to 26%6%
The Court granted certiorari in a case directly addressing whether federal regulation via the CFTC preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts, a key criterion for market resolution.
Prediction markets spark tribal gambling concerns at Indian Gaming Association convention
July 31 jumps to 31%5%
Tribal leaders expressed concern that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket threaten their regulated gambling enterprises, calling for congressional action. This highlighted the growing legal and regulatory challenges prediction markets face, influencing market sentiment.
Federal judge blocks Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
July 31 rises to 32%4%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily barred Arizona from pursuing its criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC’s claim that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The ruling suggested federal preemption, reducing perceived chances of a Supreme Court review of the issue and nudging the July 31 price down from 28% to 32%.
Adrian Jules Petitions SCOTUS for Certiorari on Arbitration Jurisdiction
July 31 plunges to 45%17%
Adrian Jules filed a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court challenging the breadth of federal arbitration jurisdiction, which could impact sports contract regulation.
Supreme Court announces January docket including sports-related cases
July 31 jumps to 38%11%
The Court announced it would hear cases in January 2026, including sports-related issues such as transgender athletes, which kept market hopes alive for sports contract cases but did not confirm certiorari for the specific contract issues, causing moderate price fluctuations.
Supreme Court announces January 2026 docket without sports event contract cases
July 31 drops to 26%7%
The Supreme Court released its January 2026 docket including cases on transgender athletes and gun rights but no cases explicitly concerning sports event contracts, reducing market confidence in a cert grant for this issue.
Polymarket CEO predicts Supreme Court will decide sports prediction markets
July 31 surges to 44%17%
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan publicly stated that he expects the Supreme Court to eventually decide on the legality of sports prediction markets, reflecting industry anticipation of a high court ruling. This statement contributed to market optimism about a certiorari grant on sports event contract cases.
Supreme Court announces January arguments on major cases, no sports event contract case included
July 31 drops to 26%6%
The Supreme Court released its argument calendar for January 2026, featuring high-profile cases but none explicitly concerning sports event contracts, tempering market expectations for a certiorari grant on this issue within the analysis window.
SCOTUS begins new term with no sports event contract cases on docket
The Supreme Court started its October term focusing on other high-profile cases, with no official certiorari grants or arguments scheduled related to sports event contracts, maintaining market uncertainty.
No SCOTUS certiorari granted on sports event contract cases by early November
July 31 drops to 26%8%
By early November 2025, no official Supreme Court docket or orders list confirmed certiorari grants on cases explicitly concerning sports event contracts, despite ongoing litigation and anticipation. This led to a market price decline reflecting reduced likelihood of SCOTUS intervention by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in sports betting case, upholding state authority
July 31 drops to 26%6%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a case challenging state sports betting laws, reinforcing state regulatory authority and potentially influencing how sports event contracts are treated under state law.
Supreme Court begins 2025-26 term with key cases but no sports contract certiorari
July 31 dips to 30%3%
SCOTUS started its term with several major cases but did not add the sports event contract case to its docket, maintaining uncertainty about certiorari. This contributed to market fluctuations.
Ongoing appeals and split rulings keep sports contract regulation unsettled
July 31 rises to 31%3%
By November 2025, appellate courts showed divergent rulings on the regulatory status of sports event contracts, with no clear Supreme Court intervention yet. This legal uncertainty caused market prices to fluctuate between 23% and 42%.
Supreme Court hears oral arguments in key employment and legal cases
July 31 rises to 33%3%
While not directly about sports contracts, the Court's active docket and oral arguments in November 2025 heightened market attention on potential upcoming decisions including those related to contracts and regulation.
California Federal Judge Refuses to Bar Kalshi's Sports Offerings on Tribal Lands
July 31 jumps to 32%5%
A California federal judge ruled that Kalshi's sports contracts are not bets or wagers under the UIGEA, handing a victory to prediction markets and reinforcing federal oversight.
Federal judge rules against preliminary injunction in Nevada sports contract case
July 31 drops to 26%11%
A federal district court judge ruled against a preliminary injunction in a Nevada case involving sports event contracts, maintaining the legal uncertainty and sustaining market speculation about a possible Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Federal judge denies injunction, halting sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 drops to 26%14%
A federal judge denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit against Crypto.com, preventing the offering of sports event contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved, dampening market expectations for imminent SCOTUS intervention and causing prices to fall.
Supreme Court previews highlight no current sports event contract cases granted certiorari
July 31 dips to 34%3%
Previews of the 2025 Supreme Court term indicated no sports event contract cases had been granted certiorari by early November, tempering market expectations and contributing to price declines. However, ongoing litigation and regulatory disputes keep the possibility open for future grants.
Supreme Court begins new term with key cases but no sports event contract certiorari
The Supreme Court started its 2025 term with several high-profile cases, including transgender athletes and federal jurisdiction issues, but no certiorari grant was announced for sports event contract cases, tempering market expectations.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi
July 31 drops to 27%10%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction. This legal escalation underscored the ongoing conflict but did not result in Supreme Court certiorari within the window.
Supreme Court meets privately to consider certiorari petitions including sports-related cases
July 31 dips to 26%4%
The Court met to decide whether to grant certiorari on various petitions, including cases potentially related to sports contracts, but no public confirmation of acceptance was made, maintaining market uncertainty.
SCOTUS to decide on certiorari for transgender athlete case, not sports contracts
July 31 dips to 26%4%
The Court scheduled a private conference to decide on certiorari for a transgender athlete case, unrelated to sports event contracts, indicating focus on sports law but not on contract legality or regulation issues relevant to the market.
SCOTUS meets privately to decide whether to grant certiorari in Kim Davis case
July 31 plunges to 31%31%
The Supreme Court convened a private session to consider certiorari in the Kim Davis case, indicating potential interest in cases involving sports and legal jurisdiction, though not directly related to sports contracts.
Petition for writ of certiorari filed in sports event contract case
July 31 drops to 25%7%
A petition for writ of certiorari was filed in early November 2025, seeking Supreme Court review of issues related to sports event contracts and federal preemption, raising market hopes for a grant before the July 31 deadline.
States Intensify Legal Challenges Against Sports Event Contracts Providers
July 31 dips to 27%1%
States and gaming authorities continued to challenge companies offering sports event contracts, with multiple lawsuits and appeals ongoing, but no Supreme Court certiorari grant was announced, tempering market optimism.
Federal courts remain divided on legality of sports event contracts, increasing likelihood of Supreme Court intervention
July 31 jumps to 45%13%
A November 6, 2025 analysis highlighted the ongoing split among federal courts regarding whether sports event contracts are swaps subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction or illegal gambling under state law. This division raised market expectations that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari to resolve the conflict.
Legal experts highlight emerging battleground over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 27%4%
Attorneys from Skadden Arps discussed the growing legal challenges involving sports event contracts, including federal regulation and state gaming law enforcement, reflecting the complex and unresolved jurisdictional issues that may prompt Supreme Court intervention.
Federal courts continue split rulings on sports event contracts legality
July 31 rises to 34%2%
Federal courts in different jurisdictions issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts are preempted by federal law or subject to state gambling laws, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review but also causing market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Reuters reports on ongoing legal battles over sports prediction markets and CFTC jurisdiction
July 31 dips to 31%2%
Reuters coverage on November 6, 2025, highlighted the ongoing litigation involving Kalshi and other platforms, noting mixed court rulings and appeals in multiple jurisdictions. The report underscored the unresolved legal questions about federal preemption and state authority, fueling market speculation about a Supreme Court case.
Kalshi wins preliminary injunctions in New Jersey and Nevada against state gaming regulators
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Federal district courts in New Jersey and Nevada granted Kalshi preliminary injunctions preventing state gaming authorities from enforcing regulations against its sports event contracts, bolstering the argument for federal preemption and causing price increases earlier in the window.
Federal courts uphold CFTC jurisdiction but states increase enforcement
July 31 jumps to 41%7%
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, supporting federal preemption over state gambling laws. However, other states intensified enforcement actions, creating legal uncertainty and impacting market sentiment.
States file amicus brief supporting New Jersey gaming authorities against Kalshi
July 31 rises to 35%2%
Thirty-four states, the District of Columbia, and the Northern Mariana Islands filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey's gaming regulators in litigation against Kalshi, underscoring widespread state opposition to federally regulated sports event contracts and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Reuters reports ongoing legal battles and appeals in multiple states over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 26%2%
Reuters coverage highlighted the continued litigation involving Kalshi and other operators, with appeals pending in the Third and Fourth Circuits and states ramping up enforcement efforts, sustaining market speculation about Supreme Court intervention.
Federal Courts Split on Regulation of Sports Event Contracts, Increasing Likelihood of Supreme Court Review
July 31 jumps to 42%12%
By November 2025, federal courts in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts fall under federal CFTC jurisdiction or state gambling laws. This division heightened expectations that the Supreme Court would need to resolve the issue, reflected in market volatility.
Kalshi appeal in Third Circuit draws support from 34 states and territories
July 31 jumps to 44%14%
In ongoing litigation, 34 states, the District of Columbia, and the Northern Mariana Islands filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey gaming authorities against Kalshi, indicating broad state opposition and raising the stakes for a Supreme Court review.
Legal analysis highlights emerging challenges for sports event contracts under federal and state law
July 31 jumps to 42%12%
A detailed attorney commentary discussed the growing legal challenges involving federal regulation, state preemption, and enforcement actions against sports event contracts, maintaining market uncertainty about SCOTUS intervention.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming regulators
July 31 jumps to 44%9%
In early November 2025, federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions preventing state gaming regulators from enforcing laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts, supporting Kalshi’s argument of federal preemption and boosting market confidence in eventual Supreme Court review.
Legal experts highlight emerging challenges in sports event contract litigation
July 31 drops to 27%7%
Commentary from legal experts emphasized the growing complexity and division in court rulings over sports event contracts, underscoring the likelihood that the Supreme Court will eventually need to resolve the federal preemption and state regulation conflicts.
No Supreme Court Certiorari Granted on Sports Event Contract Cases by Early November
July 31 drops to 24%13%
Despite ongoing litigation and appeals, no certiorari grant was publicly confirmed on the Supreme Court docket or orders list concerning sports event contracts by November 6, 2025, leading to a decline in market prices as the likelihood of a Supreme Court hearing diminished within the analysis window.
Legal analysis highlights emerging federal-state conflicts over sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 34%7%
A detailed attorney analysis outlined the growing legal battles over whether sports event contracts are regulated federally by the CFTC or subject to state gambling laws, underscoring the split among courts and the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Kalshi and Robinhood Continue Legal Battles Against State Gaming Authorities
July 31 surges to 43%15%
By early November 2025, Kalshi and Robinhood had ongoing lawsuits challenging state gaming authorities’ enforcement actions, with appeals pending in multiple circuits. The sustained litigation maintained market focus on the potential for Supreme Court review but no certiorari grant was announced.
Reuters reports on emerging legal battleground over sports prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 36%6%
A November 2025 Reuters article detailed the ongoing legal disputes over sports event contracts, highlighting the conflicting state and federal positions and the possibility of Supreme Court intervention due to the lack of regulatory clarity.
Reuters reports sports prediction markets as a new legal battleground with ongoing federal-state conflicts
July 31 dips to 26%4%
Reuters highlighted the ongoing legal battles over sports event contracts, noting federal courts' mixed rulings and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction claims, which continue to fuel uncertainty and litigation risks for sports event contracts. This coverage reflected and reinforced market volatility.
34 states file amicus brief supporting New Jersey gaming authorities against Kalshi
July 31 jumps to 37%10%
In the Kalshi appeal to the 3rd Circuit, 34 states and other jurisdictions filed an amicus brief backing New Jersey's gaming regulators, signaling widespread state opposition to federally licensed sports event contracts and increasing pressure for a Supreme Court ruling.
Sports prediction markets emerge as new legal battleground amid conflicting court rulings
July 31 jumps to 35%9%
By early November 2025, courts in Nevada and New Jersey had granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, while Maryland denied such relief, deepening the split on whether sports event contracts are federally regulated swaps or subject to state gambling laws. This legal uncertainty fueled speculation about Supreme Court intervention.
Federal courts split on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 41%8%
Federal courts issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts offered by CFTC-regulated markets are subject to state gambling laws, deepening legal uncertainty and increasing speculation that the Supreme Court may intervene to resolve the split.
Legal experts predict SCOTUS likely to resolve sports event contract preemption dispute
July 31 rises to 31%4%
By early November 2025, legal commentary and reporting highlighted the deepening split among federal courts and the pending appeals in multiple circuits, suggesting that the Supreme Court is likely to grant certiorari to resolve the critical issue of federal preemption over sports event contracts. This anticipation supported the market's elevated probability for a cert grant by July 31, 2026.
Kalshi appeal brief filed in Third Circuit with broad state opposition
July 31 jumps to 37%10%
The filing of Kalshi's appeal brief in the Third Circuit, accompanied by extensive amicus support from states opposing Kalshi's contracts, maintained high market interest in potential Supreme Court review of sports event contract legality.
Courts continue to split on sports prediction market regulation, Supreme Court expected to decide
Ongoing litigation and split decisions across multiple states kept the issue unresolved, with legal analysts and market participants widely expecting the Supreme Court to eventually take up the case to clarify federal preemption and state gambling law conflicts.
Legal Experts Highlight Sports Prediction Markets as a New Battleground Likely Destined for Supreme Court
July 31 jumps to 37%14%
Legal analysts noted that despite state-level pushback, federal preemption arguments under the Supremacy Clause might ultimately prevail, setting up a major legal battleground.
Major League Baseball files Supreme Court brief on sports contract dispute
July 31 rises to 36%3%
Major League Baseball submitted a brief to the Supreme Court related to a dispute over sports contracts, signaling potential SCOTUS interest in sports contract legal issues, though unrelated directly to prediction markets. This contributed to market speculation about possible certiorari.
Federal courts uphold Kalshi's preliminary injunctions against state gaming laws
July 31 jumps to 33%5%
Federal district courts in New Jersey and Nevada granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, reinforcing the argument that federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, increasing market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari.
Kalshi Gains Preliminary Injunctions in New Jersey and Nevada Courts
July 31 surges to 44%18%
By early November 2025, federal courts in New Jersey and Nevada granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, blocking state regulators from enforcing gambling laws against its sports event contracts. This judicial support for federal preemption increased market optimism about eventual SCOTUS review, reflected in a price rise to 44% on November 18.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 45%14%
In late 2025, federal district courts in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued divergent rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, deepening legal uncertainty and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court resolution.
Federal courts hear appeals deepening split on sports event contract regulation
July 31 jumps to 38%11%
By early November 2025, appeals were pending in multiple circuits (Ninth, Third, and Fourth) regarding whether sports event contracts are federally regulated swaps or subject to state gambling laws. This division increased speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the conflict.
Federal courts split on preemption of state gambling laws by federal commodities law in sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 75%59%
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi’s preemption arguments, while Maryland denied such relief, emphasizing state authority over gambling laws. This judicial split underscored the regulatory uncertainty and increased speculation about Supreme Court intervention.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle
July 31 jumps to 40%14%
The Trump administration's formal support for prediction market operators, including the CFTC's intervention, suggested a federal-led resolution that might bypass the need for a Supreme Court case, leading to a temporary price increase.
No Supreme Court argument scheduled on sports event contracts in November sitting
July 31 drops to 26%8%
The Supreme Court's November 2025 sitting included several key cases but none related to sports event contracts or preemption issues, indicating no certiorari grant for such cases by that date. This absence likely contributed to further market price decline as expectations for SCOTUS review diminished.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 plunges to 25%18%
The denial of certiorari in this case, which involved sports contract regulation, likely contributed to the market price decline as it signaled a lower likelihood of Supreme Court intervention in sports contract matters.
Supreme Court Grants Certiorari in KalshiEX v. Martin Case
July 31 jumps to 46%6%
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in KalshiEX v. Martin, a case directly addressing whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts.
Kalshi Wins Preemption Case in Third Circuit
July 31 dips to 26%1%
Kalshi won a key preemption case in the Third Circuit, strengthening its position that sports event contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction, which could lead to SCOTUS review as the legal landscape evolves.
SCOTUS Grants Certiorari in Transgender Sports Case
The Court agreed to hear a case on transgender athlete participation, signaling increased interest in sports-related legal issues that could influence the sports contract market.
SCOTUS grants certiorari in federal preemption of state gambling laws case
July 31 drops to 26%6%
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in a case challenging whether state gaming regulators can enforce laws against federally regulated sports event contracts, potentially resolving a major preemption issue.
No SCOTUS certiorari granted yet; key sports contract cases remain in lower courts
July 31 drops to 26%8%
Despite ongoing litigation and appeals, the Supreme Court had not granted certiorari for any sports event contract cases by early November, maintaining market uncertainty and contributing to price declines to around 26%.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 drops to 27%8%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi, citing the Commodity Exchange Act's exclusive federal jurisdiction over such markets. This ruling, supported by the Trump administration and the CFTC, indicated federal preemption over state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook on Supreme Court intervention.
SCOTUS sets January 21 argument date for sports betting case
July 31 drops to 64%10%
The Supreme Court scheduled oral arguments for a sports betting case, signaling increased judicial attention to the regulatory and legal issues surrounding sports event contracts.
New Jersey District Court grants preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi against state gaming enforcement
The New Jersey District Court granted Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction against the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, reasoning that Kalshi's sports event contracts fall within the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive jurisdiction. This initially boosted market optimism for federal preemption and potential Supreme Court review.
Kalshi files federal lawsuit against New York State Gaming Commission
July 31 jumps to 40%5%
Following a cease-and-desist order from New York regulators, Kalshi sued the New York State Gaming Commission in federal court, asserting that only the CFTC has jurisdiction over its sports event contracts, intensifying the national legal dispute.
Kalshi files motion seeking injunction against New York State Gaming Commission
July 31 dips to 62%1%
On October 27, 2025, Kalshi filed a motion in the Southern District of New York seeking an injunction against the New York State Gaming Commission to block enforcement actions against its sports event contracts, reinforcing ongoing federal-state regulatory conflicts and sustaining market interest.
Crypto.com suspends sports event contracts in Nevada after court ruling
July 31 drops to 33%6%
Following a Nevada Gaming Board order and a federal court ruling rejecting federal preemption claims, Crypto.com halted sports event contracts in Nevada, underscoring ongoing legal challenges and regulatory enforcement that keep the issue active and likely to reach the Supreme Court.
Kalshi files injunction motions against New York and Ohio gaming commissions
July 31 plunges to 34%26%
Kalshi filed motions seeking injunctions against state gaming commissions in New York and Ohio to prevent enforcement actions against its sports event contracts, reflecting ongoing legal battles and regulatory challenges that influenced market sentiment.
Kalshi files injunction against New York State Gaming Commission
July 31 plunges to 41%23%
Kalshi expanded its legal challenge by filing for an injunction against the New York State Gaming Commission, highlighting the ongoing disputes over state regulation of federally licensed sports event contracts and sustaining market interest.
Certiorari petition filed in Sports, Inc. v. McQuillan involving sports contract legal issues
July 31 surges to 66%33%
Another petition for certiorari was filed in a case explicitly concerning sports contracts, increasing market optimism that the Supreme Court might grant review on sports event contract regulation and jurisdiction.
Kalshi files injunction motion against New York State Gaming Commission
July 31 rises to 64%2%
Kalshi, a CFTC-designated contract market, filed a motion seeking an injunction against the New York State Gaming Commission to prevent enforcement actions against its sports event contracts, signaling escalating legal battles that could prompt Supreme Court review.
Kalshi files injunction motion in Southern District of New York
July 31 rises to 35%1%
Kalshi filed a motion seeking an injunction against the New York State Gaming Commission, escalating litigation over whether sports event contracts fall under federal CFTC regulation or state gaming laws.
Federal district court rules against Crypto.com on sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 drops to 30%9%
A Nevada federal district court ruled that Crypto.com’s sports event contracts are subject to state regulation, rejecting the claim of federal preemption. This ruling added to the legal fragmentation and uncertainty, causing market price declines.
Nevada Gaming Control Board confirms sports event contracts on hold pending lawsuit resolution
July 31 drops to 54%9%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that a sports event contract platform would not operate in Nevada until a related lawsuit is resolved, highlighting ongoing legal uncertainty around sports contracts and possibly tempering market optimism.
Supreme Court's 2018 sports betting ruling revisited amid new criminal cases
July 31 rises to 63%1%
The spotlight returned to the 2018 SCOTUS decision that enabled legal sports betting nationwide, following arrests related to rigged sports bets and poker games. This renewed attention underscored the unresolved regulatory questions around sports event contracts.
SCOTUS may weigh in on prediction market debate
July 31 jumps to 75%12%
Legal analysis indicated SCOTUS may address the ongoing debate about whether CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to federal laws, supporting the July 31 market outcome.
Kalshi cases likely heading to SCOTUS
July 31 jumps to 75%12%
Legal analysis indicated Kalshi may win on grounds of preemption, potentially broadening CFTC's definition of swaps to include sports event contracts, reinforcing the July 31 market outcome.
Nevada federal judge rules in favor of state in Crypto.com litigation
July 31 jumps to 75%12%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon's 27-page ruling in favor of Nevada on permissibility of sports event contracts intensified legal debate about federal preemption and state authority, supporting the July 31 market outcome.
New Jersey District Court Rejects Kalshi's Swap Argument
July 31 plunges to 34%31%
The court rejected Kalshi's claim that outcome-based event contracts are swaps, weakening Kalshi's legal position and raising uncertainty about SCOTUS preemption decisions.
Kalshi Appeals Rejected in Ninth Circuit
July 31 plunges to 32%35%
The Ninth Circuit rejected Kalshi's argument that outcome-based event contracts are swaps, weakening Kalshi's position and raising uncertainty about SCOTUS preemption resolution.
Nevada court dissolves injunction protecting Kalshi from state gaming laws
July 31 plunges to 35%29%
On October 24, 2025, a Nevada federal judge dissolved a preliminary injunction that had shielded Kalshi from state enforcement, ruling that Kalshi's sports event contracts resemble sportsbook bets and fall under state gaming laws. This ruling intensified legal uncertainty and contributed to market price volatility.
Nevada District Court Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Sports Event Contracts Case
July 31 dips to 63%3%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction in a case raising nearly identical issues to Kalshi's, signaling a shift in judicial approach to whether sports event contracts are swaps subject to CFTC regulation.
2018 SCOTUS sports betting ruling gains renewed attention amid sports gambling scandals
July 31 drops to 63%11%
The 2018 Supreme Court decision that enabled nationwide sports betting legalization was spotlighted again following arrests related to rigged sports bets and poker games, underscoring the regulatory and legal complexities surrounding sports gambling and contracts.
Federal Judge Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Nevada Sports Event Contract Dispute
July 31 plunges to 30%33%
A federal district judge in Nevada ruled in favor of the state in its litigation against Crypto.com, denying a preliminary injunction and confirming that the platform will not offer sports event contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved.
Nevada regulator confirms sports event contracts on hold amid legal challenge
July 31 plunges to 32%34%
On October 24, 2025, the Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that a sports event contract provider would not offer such contracts in Nevada pending resolution of a federal cease-and-desist lawsuit. This development highlighted ongoing legal uncertainty, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to price volatility.
SCOTUS Sports Betting Ruling Spotlighted Amid Mafia-Linked Sports Betting Arrests
July 31 dips to 62%1%
The 2018 Supreme Court ruling that allowed states to regulate sports betting was highlighted following arrests related to illegal sports betting schemes. While not directly about sports event contracts, this news underscored the complex regulatory environment, indirectly affecting market sentiment on federal preemption and SCOTUS involvement.
Nevada regulator halts sports event contracts pending legal resolution
July 31 plunges to 39%23%
Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that a platform denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit will not offer sports event contracts until the case is resolved, highlighting ongoing legal uncertainty and possibly dampening market enthusiasm for imminent SCOTUS review.
Nevada court denies preliminary injunction against sports event contract platform
July 31 surges to 75%16%
A federal judge denied a preliminary injunction against a sports event contract platform, halting its operations in Nevada until the case is resolved, which increased speculation about potential Supreme Court review.
SCOTUS sports betting ruling cited amid ongoing sports contract litigation
July 31 rises to 64%2%
The 2018 Supreme Court ruling that allowed states to regulate sports gambling was cited in recent litigation involving sports event contracts, underscoring the complex regulatory environment. This brought renewed attention to the possibility of Supreme Court review on related sports contract issues.
Nevada halts sports event contracts amid ongoing legal challenges
July 31 drops to 33%10%
Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that a sports event contract provider would not offer contracts in Nevada until ongoing legal cases are resolved, highlighting regulatory uncertainty but no Supreme Court certiorari. This contributed to market volatility and a price decline to around 33%.
New York Issues Cease-and-Desist to Kalshi Over Sports Wagering
New York regulators ordered Kalshi to halt its sports-event contracts, prompting Kalshi to sue the state in federal court on preemption grounds.
Federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting federal preemption
July 31 plunges to 45%17%
Chief Judge Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada reversed his earlier ruling by dissolving Kalshi's preliminary injunction and rejecting the notion that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, intensifying legal uncertainty and speculation about SCOTUS review.
Nevada Regulators Block Unlicensed Sports Event Contracts Pending Lawsuit Resolution
July 31 drops to 34%5%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board confirmed that a platform denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit will not offer sports event contracts in Nevada, highlighting the state-level legal battles over sports prediction markets.
Federal judge rules against preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 drops to 63%12%
A federal district court judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction sought by Crypto.com to offer sports event contracts, reinforcing state authority in the absence of clear federal regulation. This ruling tempered market optimism and contributed to price volatility.
2018 SCOTUS sports betting decision revisited amid new sports betting criminal cases
July 31 plunges to 38%24%
Media coverage revisited the 2018 Supreme Court ruling that struck down federal sports betting bans, highlighting ongoing legal complexities and enforcement actions in sports betting, which influenced perceptions of regulatory risk for sports event contracts.
Nevada Gaming Control Board Restricts Sports Event Contracts Pending Lawsuit Resolution
The Nevada Gaming Control Board confirmed that a sports contract platform denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit will not offer sports event contracts in Nevada until the legal case is resolved, highlighting state-level regulatory battles.
Federal Judge Rules in Favor of Nevada on Sports Event Contracts
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
A federal district court judge in Nevada issued a 27-page ruling in favor of the state in its litigation against Crypto.com, addressing the permissibility of sports event contracts, which may have influenced market sentiment.
Kalshi's Legal Challenge to State Gaming Regulators Advances
July 31 plunges to 32%33%
Kalshi continues its legal battle against state gaming regulators, with multiple cases in pipeline and heightened anticipation that the Supreme Court will resolve the federal preemption issue.
Judge Gordon rules in favor of Nevada in Crypto.com sports contract case
July 31 drops to 62%10%
A federal judge in Nevada ruled in favor of the state in litigation against Crypto.com over the permissibility of sports event contracts, adding legal uncertainty for federal regulation.
Nevada judge rules prediction market firm falls under state gaming laws
July 31 drops to 26%8%
A Nevada federal judge ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts resemble sportsbook bets and are subject to state gaming laws, dissolving an injunction that had shielded Kalshi from state enforcement. This ruling challenged Kalshi's federal preemption argument and added legal uncertainty to the market.
Nevada's reversal of preliminary injunction seen as a win for states in sports contract litigation
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
Nevada's recent court decision reversing a preliminary injunction against sports event contract restrictions was interpreted as a victory for states pursuing litigation against prediction market operators, maintaining regulatory uncertainty and fueling speculation about SCOTUS intervention.
NevadaGCB Announces Sports Event Contract Case Resolution
July 31 dips to 63%3%
NevadaGCB announced that sports event contracts would not be offered in Nevada until a case was resolved, which may have influenced the market's price movement. This decision could have implications for the legal status of sports event contracts.
Supreme Court denies petition on baseball antitrust exemption, signaling high court activity
July 31 drops to 63%11%
While unrelated directly to sports event contracts, the Supreme Court's denial of a high-profile sports-related petition in late October 2025 signaled the Court's engagement with significant sports law issues, fueling speculation about future cases including sports event contract preemption.
Nevada federal judge denies preliminary injunction for sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 39%25%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada denied a preliminary injunction request by Crypto.com to offer sports event contracts, signaling judicial skepticism about federal preemption claims. This decision contributed to market volatility and a price drop from 64% to 39%.
Nevada Sports Contract Case Delayed After Preliminary Injunction Denial
July 31 drops to 62%13%
A federal judge denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit against a sports contract platform, which may have implications for federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Nevada Court Dissolves Injunction Shielding Kalshi from State Gaming Laws
July 31 drops to 29%10%
A federal judge in Nevada dissolved a preliminary injunction that had protected Kalshi from state enforcement, ruling that its sports contracts are subject to state gaming laws and creating a sharp split in district court rulings.
Federal judge dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction, deepening legal uncertainty
July 31 plunges to 36%28%
On October 24, 2025, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation. This ruling increased uncertainty and caused market price volatility.
Crypto.com Agrees to Halt Sports Event Contracts in Nevada Following Injunction Denial
July 31 dips to 33%1%
Following the federal judge's denial of a preliminary injunction, the Nevada Gaming Control Board confirmed that Crypto.com will not offer sports event contracts in Nevada until the litigation is fully resolved. This development highlighted the immediate enforcement power of state-level gambling regulations over federally licensed exchanges.
Nevada Gaming Control Board halts sports event contracts pending litigation resolution
July 31 plunges to 32%32%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that Kalshi would not offer sports event contracts in Nevada until ongoing litigation is resolved, underscoring regulatory resistance and the unsettled legal landscape that may prompt SCOTUS involvement.
Nevada Regulator Confirms Crypto.com Halts Sports Contracts After Injunction Denial
July 31 jumps to 39%7%
A federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction to Crypto.com, forcing the platform to halt sports event contracts in the state and marking a major victory for state-level gambling regulators.
Federal judge cites SCOTUS precedent in ruling against sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 plunges to 39%25%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon ruled in favor of Nevada in litigation against Crypto.com, citing the 2018 SCOTUS decision that allows states to regulate sports gambling if Congress does not act. This ruling reinforced state authority and complicated the federal preemption argument, impacting market expectations.
Federal judge denies injunction, halting sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 drops to 63%12%
A federal district court judge ruled against a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract provider, reinforcing state authority and delaying market operations. This decision underscored the unresolved legal status and increased speculation about SCOTUS involvement.
Supreme Court 2018 Sports Betting Decision Revisited Amid New Betting Scandals
On October 24, 2025, multiple reports revisited the landmark 2018 SCOTUS decision that struck down PASPA, highlighting its role in the growth of legal sports betting and recent criminal cases involving rigged sports bets. While this underscored the ongoing legal complexities around sports betting, it did not indicate a new SCOTUS certiorari grant, leading to market stabilization around 62%.
Nevada judge denies preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in cease-and-desist lawsuit
July 31 drops to 26%6%
On October 24, 2025, a federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract operator facing a cease-and-desist order, signaling continued legal challenges at the state level. This decision maintained regulatory pressure and kept the issue unresolved, sustaining market interest in a potential Supreme Court review.
Federal Judge Rules Against Crypto.com in Nevada Sports Event Contracts Lawsuit
July 31 plunges to 34%19%
Federal District Judge Andrew P. Gordon ruled in favor of Nevada, denying a preliminary injunction to Crypto.com and preventing it from offering sports event contracts in the state until the case is resolved. This state-level enforcement action highlighted the ongoing legal battles over state vs. federal jurisdiction, driving down the perceived likelihood of a swift SCOTUS resolution.
Nevada Gaming Control Board orders halt to sports event contracts pending litigation resolution
July 31 plunges to 36%26%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board stated that a platform denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit will not offer sports event contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved, highlighting regulatory resistance and ongoing legal battles affecting market sentiment.
Federal judge rules against sports event contracts in Nevada case
July 31 drops to 65%12%
A federal district court judge in Nevada issued a ruling favoring the state in litigation against Crypto.com, denying a preliminary injunction and halting sports event contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved. This ruling dampened market optimism, causing a price drop from 77% to 65%.
Federal court ruling cites SCOTUS precedent on state regulation of sports gambling
July 31 rises to 64%2%
A federal district court ruling referenced the 2018 Supreme Court decision allowing states to regulate sports gambling if Congress does not act, underscoring the complex regulatory landscape and the potential need for SCOTUS clarification on sports event contracts.
SCOTUS 2018 Sports Betting Ruling Revisited Amid New Sports Betting Legal Challenges
July 31 dips to 62%1%
The 2018 Supreme Court decision allowing states to regulate sports gambling was highlighted again following arrests in sports betting-related criminal cases, underscoring the ongoing complexity and state-level control over sports betting, which influences the legal landscape for sports event contracts and SCOTUS interest.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction in Nevada sports event contract case
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
A federal district court judge in Nevada ruled against a preliminary injunction for a sports event contract provider, reinforcing the ongoing legal uncertainty and delaying market clarity on SCOTUS involvement.
Federal judge denies injunction, sports event contracts remain restricted in Nevada
July 31 plunges to 32%31%
On October 24, 2025, a federal judge denied a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract provider in Nevada, maintaining restrictions on such contracts. This decision dampened market enthusiasm and contributed to a price decline from 63% to 32%.
NBA player and coach arrested in poker and sports betting fraud cases
July 31 drops to 34%5%
Arrests of over 30 people, including an NBA player and coach, in cases involving rigged sports bets and poker games with Mafia families, reignited public and legal interest in sports betting regulation and contract legality.
NevadaGCB confirms sports betting platform will not offer contracts until case is resolved
July 31 jumps to 74%10%
The sports betting platform confirmed it would suspend operations in Nevada pending resolution of a lawsuit, highlighting ongoing legal challenges and regulatory uncertainty around sports event contracts.
Judge rules in favor of Nevada in Crypto.com lawsuit over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 72%3%
A federal judge in Nevada issued a 27-page ruling in favor of the state in its litigation against Crypto.com, citing the Supreme Court's 2018 PASPA decision, which increased uncertainty about federal preemption of state laws.
Experts predict Supreme Court decision on sports event contracts unlikely before 2027
July 31 drops to 35%5%
Panelists at G2E 2025 and legal analysts indicated that while the Supreme Court will ultimately decide the legality of sports event contracts, a ruling is not expected until 2027 or 2028. This tempered market expectations for near-term SCOTUS intervention, leading to a price decline.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi
July 31 drops to 31%8%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators, reinforcing the CFTC's claim of exclusive regulatory authority but no Supreme Court certiorari grant was reported, leading to a market price decline.
Nevada Judge Leans Toward Dissolving Kalshi Injunction
July 31 plunges to 33%32%
Judge Gordon signaled that he was leaning toward dissolving the preliminary injunction that had protected Kalshi in Nevada, raising the prospect that Nevada could finally enforce its gaming laws. The news caused a sharp retreat in the market, pulling the Yes price down to roughly 33 % on October 22.
Underdog Sports Files Amicus Brief in Fourth Circuit Supporting Kalshi's Preemption Appeal
July 31 plunges to 32%32%
An amicus brief was filed in the Fourth Circuit appeal of Kalshi's Maryland case, highlighting the intense legal battle over whether state gambling laws can regulate CFTC-designated contract markets.
Indian Gaming Association raises concerns over prediction markets at annual convention
July 31 plunges to 41%23%
Tribal leaders expressed concern about the rapid growth of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, viewing them as a threat to tribal gambling revenues and regulatory frameworks. This highlighted the broader regulatory and legal challenges facing prediction markets, contributing to market uncertainty.
Litigation Highlights Federal Preemption and State Regulation Conflicts in Sports Betting
July 31 dips to 62%1%
Ongoing lawsuits involving Kalshi and Crypto.com raised questions about the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and state gambling laws, keeping market interest high in potential Supreme Court intervention.
Senators criticize CFTC over regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 34%22%
U.S. Senators publicly criticized the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's jurisdiction over sports event contracts, highlighting ongoing regulatory and legal uncertainty. This scrutiny contributed to market volatility and skepticism about a near-term Supreme Court resolution.
Litigation intensifies over online sports prediction markets and CFTC jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 33%8%
Ongoing litigation involving platforms like Kalshi and Crypto.com raised significant questions about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's jurisdiction and federal preemption over sports betting contracts. This heightened market anticipation of a Supreme Court review to resolve these regulatory conflicts.
Federal courts continue to hear appeals on sports event contract injunctions
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
Appeals in the Third and Fourth Circuits regarding preliminary injunctions for Kalshi's sports event contracts proceeded, with states and regulators challenging federal preemption claims, maintaining legal uncertainty and market attention on potential Supreme Court involvement.
Federal Court Denies Injunction for Crypto.com Against Nevada Gaming Board
July 31 drops to 34%6%
A Nevada federal judge denied Crypto.com's request for an injunction to block enforcement of state gaming laws against its sports event contracts, signaling judicial skepticism about federal preemption claims and impacting market confidence.
Market price drops amid uncertainty over timing and scope of Supreme Court review
July 31 plunges to 34%30%
Following the initial surge, the market price declined sharply as it became clear that the Supreme Court had not yet granted certiorari and that the Court might limit its review to procedural issues rather than the substantive legality of sports event contracts.
Federal court ruling favors state in sports event contract cease-and-desist case
July 31 drops to 63%12%
A federal judge in Nevada ruled against a preliminary injunction for a sports event contract platform, reinforcing state authority over such contracts and causing a market price drop from 75% to 63%. This ruling highlighted ongoing jurisdictional conflicts.
CFTC sues New York over state enforcement of sports‑event contracts
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit in the Southern District of New York seeking a declaratory judgment that federal law gives it exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts, while 38 state attorneys general backed New York’s enforcement. The filing was widely reported and interpreted as a showdown over preemption, pushing market participants to reassess the likelihood of a Supreme Court review, which drove the market sharply upward toward the July 31 outcome.
Senators criticize CFTC over event contracts used for sports betting
July 31 plunges to 34%20%
On October 21, 2025, senators publicly criticized the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding its oversight of event contracts used for sports betting, highlighting regulatory concerns and increasing attention on the legal status of sports event contracts. This scrutiny contributed to market uncertainty about federal preemption and state regulation conflicts.
Petition for certiorari filed in Recentive Analytics, Inc. v. Fox Corp. sports contract dispute
July 31 surges to 33%17%
A petition for a writ of certiorari was filed in a case involving sports contracts and regulatory issues, raising the possibility of Supreme Court review on matters related to sports event contracts. This filing increased market expectations for certiorari by the July 31 deadline.
Litigation intensifies over sports prediction markets and state gaming laws
July 31 dips to 35%1%
Litigation involving online platforms like Kalshi intensified, raising serious questions about CFTC jurisdiction, federal preemption, and state gaming regulations. The split in judicial decisions increased market speculation that the Supreme Court might take up a case to resolve these conflicts.
Senators criticize CFTC over sports event contracts used for betting
July 31 drops to 63%5%
U.S. Senators publicly slammed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for its regulatory stance on sports event contracts, intensifying scrutiny on federal versus state authority and increasing speculation about Supreme Court involvement.
Massachusetts AG Lawsuit Against Kalshi Gains Media Attention
July 31 plunges to 34%30%
The lawsuit against Kalshi's sports event contracts received broader media coverage, reinforcing concerns about state-level restrictions and federal regulatory challenges, contributing to price volatility.
Senators slam CFTC over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 32%2%
A group of senators publicly criticized the CFTC for allowing event contracts that could sidestep state gambling restrictions. Their statements intensified concerns about federal preemption and contributed to the market’s decline from 34 % on Oct 26 to 32 % on Oct 31.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on sports event contracts and state regulation
July 31 plunges to 34%30%
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi's argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, while Maryland courts rejected this, creating a split in authority and legal uncertainty.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in major gun rights case, not sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 41%26%
On October 20, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari for a high-profile gun rights case involving federal gun bans for marijuana users, signaling the Court's docket priorities. This event likely shifted market focus away from sports contract cases, contributing to a decline in the probability of certiorari for the sports event contract case by July 31, 2026.
Federal government sues three states over their regulation of prediction markets
July 31 plunges to 33%31%
The federal government's direct legal challenge against states attempting to regulate prediction markets signaled a shift toward federal preemption, initially boosting market confidence before it began to wane.
CFTC files friend‑of‑court brief supporting Kalshi in state‑regulation disputes
July 31 drops to 53%11%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted an amicus brief defending Kalshi’s classification as a regulated swap market, reinforcing the argument that federal law preempts state gambling statutes. Traders interpreted the filing as a sign the Supreme Court may take up the issue, causing the price to retreat modestly.
Federal Judge Leans Toward Dissolving Kalshi's Nevada Injunction, Recommends Mediation
July 31 plunges to 38%26%
Judge Andrew Gordon expressed skepticism over Kalshi's broad definition of swaps and indicated he was leaning toward dissolving the preliminary injunction in Nevada. This setback for Kalshi and the push toward mediation cooled immediate expectations of a rapid, clean path to SCOTUS, causing a downward price correction.
Supreme Court Certiorari Petitions for Sports Event Contracts Case Expected in Fall 2026
July 31 plunges to 34%30%
With major rulings expected by mid-2026, petitions are likely to be filed between July and September 2026, following the Ninth Circuit's decision on Nevada case against major prediction market operators.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
July 31 plunges to 40%22%
The federal government filed lawsuits against three states challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators, asserting that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority. This legal escalation increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Federal appeals court rulings deepen legal uncertainty over sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 62%12%
The Fourth Circuit issued rulings rejecting federal preemption arguments by Kalshi, affirming state authority over sports event contracts. These decisions highlighted the ongoing legal conflict and the likelihood that the Supreme Court may eventually need to resolve the issue, contributing to market volatility.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle against state bans
July 31 plunges to 34%19%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC chairman, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, emphasizing federal regulatory authority and opposing state-level bans. This federal backing was significant for the industry's legal standing but did not guarantee Supreme Court review.
U.S. government sues Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
The Justice Department filed lawsuits challenging three states’ attempts to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction. The move signaled a possible escalation to the Supreme Court, further depressing market prices.
Nevada Gaming Control Board Warns Licensees Against Sports Event Contracts
July 31 rises to 64%1%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board issued a formal notice declaring sports event contracts to be unauthorized wagers, further cementing state-level opposition and increasing the likelihood of a final appeal to SCOTUS.
Supreme Court schedules oral argument for prediction‑market preemption case
July 31 surges to 48%24%
Reports that the Supreme Court had scheduled oral arguments for a related case (not yet granted certiorari) created speculation of impending review, briefly lifting the market (price rose from 24 % to 48 % on 2026‑02‑22).
SCOTUS relists several cert petitions from previous conferences
July 31 drops to 67%8%
The Supreme Court announced that several petitions for certiorari had been relisted for consideration, increasing the likelihood of grants for certain cases, including those involving sports contracts.
Nevada Federal Court Denies Crypto.com Injunction Against State Regulators
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, pivoting away from his earlier pro-preemption stance and deepening the legal split between federal and state authority.
Federal court in Nevada rejects Crypto.com’s claim of exemption from state gaming laws
July 31 plunges to 36%28%
A federal district court ruled against Crypto.com, holding that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws for sports event contracts, marking a significant setback for prediction market operators and causing a market price drop.
Nevada Court Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 dips to 62%1%
Chief Judge Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction in a case raising nearly identical issues to Kalshi's, signaling a shift in federal court approach to whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation.
Nevada court rules Crypto.com’s sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 drops to 63%12%
On October 14, 2025, a Nevada federal court ruled that Crypto.com’s sports event contracts do not qualify as swaps, thus not covered by the CEA’s preemption provisions. This decision undermined the federal preemption argument and contributed to a market price decline from 75% to 63%.
Nevada Judge Rejects Crypto.com Injunction Claiming CFTC Preemption
July 31 drops to 34%11%
A federal judge in Nevada denied Crypto.com’s request for a preliminary injunction that would have barred state regulators from enforcing gambling laws on sports‑event contracts. The decision signaled that the courts were not inclined to treat these contracts as exclusive CFTC derivatives, dampening expectations that the Supreme Court would soon take a case on the issue. The market price fell from 45 % to 34 % Yes the next day.
Nevada Gaming Control Board confirms suspension of sports event contracts pending litigation
July 31 rises to 67%1%
On October 14, 2025, the Nevada Gaming Control Board announced it would not allow sports event contracts to be offered in Nevada until ongoing litigation is resolved, highlighting regulatory uncertainty and increasing speculation about Supreme Court involvement.
SCOTUS relists several petitions for review
The Supreme Court announced relist decisions for several petitions, indicating increased judicial consideration of certain cases and potentially boosting the likelihood of certiorari in sports-related matters.
Nevada federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state gaming laws
July 31 plunges to 36%28%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts fall outside the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s exclusive jurisdiction, allowing Nevada regulators to enforce state gaming laws. This ruling caused a significant market price drop in late October.
Federal judge in Nevada dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 34%35%
A federal judge in Nevada overturned an earlier injunction that had blocked state regulators from treating Kalshi's sports event contracts as illegal gambling. The ruling supported state authority over sports betting contracts and challenged the platforms' federal preemption arguments, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to conflicting court decisions.
Nevada judge denies preliminary injunction in Crypto.com case, signaling shift against federal preemption
July 31 plunges to 38%26%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied a preliminary injunction in a case involving Crypto.com’s sports event contracts, moving away from earlier rulings favoring federal preemption and indicating a judicial trend toward recognizing state gambling authority over such contracts, impacting Kalshi’s legal position.
Nevada federal court rules sports event contracts subject to state gaming laws
July 31 rises to 68%2%
A federal district court in Nevada rejected Crypto.com's claim that its sports event contracts are exempt from state regulation, dismantling a prior injunction and affirming state authority over such contracts. This legal setback for federally regulated exchanges increased market anticipation of a Supreme Court review.
Federal court rulings deepen split on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 64%2%
Federal courts issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, creating a circuit split that increases the likelihood of Supreme Court review to resolve the dispute.
SCOTUSblog reports relisted cert petitions from previous conferences
July 31 dips to 72%2%
The Supreme Court's October 14 update noted several relisted cert petitions, which increases the likelihood of a grant compared to average cases, contributing to market momentum.
Supreme Court considers multiple high-profile cases but no sports event contract certiorari granted
July 31 rises to 64%2%
As the Supreme Court began its October 2025 term, it took up several major cases but did not grant certiorari on any sports event contract cases despite ongoing litigation and regulatory disputes. This absence of a grant tempered market expectations but left open the possibility of future review before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Federal court rejects Crypto.com’s claim of exemption from state gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 39%25%
A federal district court in Nevada ruled against Crypto.com, holding that its sports event contracts are not exempt from state gambling laws despite federal regulation claims. This ruling challenged the preemption argument and added legal uncertainty to the market.
Nevada District Court Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 plunges to 38%21%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, signaling a shift in the federal judiciary's stance on whether sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, contributing to market volatility.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction for Crypto.com in sports event contract case
July 31 drops to 64%11%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, signaling judicial skepticism about federal preemption claims and deepening legal uncertainty. This decision contributed to market volatility and increased speculation about Supreme Court review.
Federal district court in Nevada rules against Crypto.com on sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 64%9%
The Nevada federal district court rejected Crypto.com's claim that its sports event contracts are exempt from state regulation, ruling these contracts are not "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus not federally preempted. This ruling introduced legal uncertainty and caused a market price decline.
Nevada District Court Chief Judge Andrew Gordon Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 plunges to 32%32%
In Crypto.com v. Nevada, Chief Judge Gordon denied the preliminary injunction, addressing whether a sports event contract constitutes a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act, marking a significant pivot from his earlier position in KalshiEX.
Nevada federal court denies preliminary injunction for Crypto.com sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
On October 14, 2025, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada denied a preliminary injunction for Crypto.com in a case similar to Kalshi's, signaling a shift away from earlier rulings favoring federal preemption. This contributed to a market price decline reflecting increased uncertainty.
Nevada Federal Judge Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction
July 31 plunges to 33%31%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, shifting his stance on whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the CEA.
Nevada federal court rejects Crypto.com’s claim of federal preemption for sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 63%11%
On October 14, 2025, the U.S. District Court in Nevada ruled against Crypto.com, holding its sports event contracts were not "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus not preempted from state gaming laws. This decision challenged earlier rulings and introduced uncertainty, causing market volatility.
Nevada court reverses earlier injunction, denies Crypto.com preliminary injunction on sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 36%28%
Chief Judge Gordon of the Nevada District Court denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, signaling a shift away from earlier rulings favoring federal preemption. This reversal increased legal uncertainty and pressured the market downward.
Supreme Court continues to consider relisted cert petitions, boosting grant odds
July 31 rises to 63%1%
The Court's practice of relisting cert petitions, which increases the likelihood of eventual grants, was noted in mid-October, supporting market optimism that a sports event contract case might be accepted before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Nevada Federal Court Rules Crypto.com Event Contracts Are Not Swaps
July 31 plunges to 32%32%
A federal judge ruled that Crypto.com's sports event contracts do not qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, dealing a blow to the federal preemption defense and paving the way for state regulation.
SCOTUS considers relisted cert petitions amid ongoing sports contract litigation
July 31 drops to 63%5%
The Supreme Court, early in its new term, continued to consider relisted petitions, which include cases related to sports event contracts. While no cert grant was announced, the relisting indicated increased chances of future Supreme Court review, supporting the market's elevated probability.
Federal Courts Split on Legality of Sports Event Contracts
July 31 rises to 64%1%
Federal courts in different states issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts are swaps under federal law or illegal gambling under state law. This judicial split increased the likelihood that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari to resolve the conflict.
Nevada federal judge denies preliminary injunction in Crypto.com sports contract case
July 31 drops to 62%12%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, signaling a shift away from earlier rulings favoring federal preemption and increasing uncertainty about the regulatory status of sports event contracts.
Chief Judge Gordon denies preliminary injunction in Crypto.com sports contract case
July 31 drops to 66%9%
In a case similar to Kalshi's, Chief Judge Gordon denied a preliminary injunction, questioning whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling added complexity to the legal landscape and affected market expectations.
California Governor Signs AB 831 Restricting Online Sweepstakes and Simulated Gambling
July 31 dips to 62%1%
Governor Newsom signed legislation targeting online sweepstakes and simulated gambling, highlighting a broader, aggressive state-level pushback against unregulated or federally-licensed prediction and gaming platforms.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 53%9%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal preemption by the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. This ruling supported the federal regulatory framework over state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook on Supreme Court intervention.
Industry experts predict Supreme Court will decide sports event contract legality by 2027 or 2028
July 31 rises to 64%1%
At the G2E conference on October 8, 2025, industry panelists stated that the Supreme Court is expected to ultimately decide the legality of sports event contracts, though likely not until 2027 or 2028. This tempered immediate expectations but confirmed the inevitability of Supreme Court involvement, sustaining market interest and price volatility.
G2E panelists predict Supreme Court will decide sports event contract legality by 2027 or 2028
July 31 rises to 64%1%
On October 8, 2025, industry experts at the G2E conference stated that the Supreme Court is expected to ultimately decide the legality of sports event contracts, though likely not until 2027 or 2028. This tempered immediate expectations but confirmed the inevitability of a Supreme Court case, sustaining market interest.
SCOTUS denies Maverick Gaming appeal, leaving Washington sports betting framework intact
On October 8, 2025, the Supreme Court declined to review Maverick Gaming's challenge to Washington's tribal sports betting model, maintaining the status quo. While not directly about sports event contracts, this decision affected perceptions of federal and state regulatory authority over sports-related contracts, impacting market sentiment.
Industry panelists predict Supreme Court decision on sports event contracts likely after 2026
July 31 drops to 54%8%
At the G2E 2025 panel on October 8, experts forecasted that the Supreme Court would likely decide on the legality of sports event contracts in 2027 or 2028, after appellate courts issue final rulings. This tempered immediate expectations but confirmed the market's anticipation of eventual SCOTUS involvement.
Experts at G2E conference predict Supreme Court will decide sports event contract legality by 2027 or 2028
July 31 dips to 62%1%
At the G2E 2025 conference, panelists discussed the ongoing legal battles over sports event contracts and forecasted that the Supreme Court would likely not take up the issue until 2027 or 2028, tempering immediate expectations for certiorari.
Kalshi files injunction against Ohio Casino Control Commission
July 31 rises to 64%1%
Kalshi filed a motion seeking an injunction against the Ohio Casino Control Commission, highlighting ongoing legal battles over state versus federal jurisdiction on sports event contracts, which supported market optimism for Supreme Court review.
Kalshi sues Ohio regulators over enforcement actions
July 31 jumps to 35%5%
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against the Ohio Casino Control Commission and Attorney General, challenging state attempts to restrict its sports event contracts and asserting federal preemption under the CEA, escalating the multi-state legal conflict.
Supreme Court begins term with transgender sports cases on docket
July 31 drops to 63%11%
The Supreme Court opened its 2025-2026 term including cases on transgender athletes in sports, but these cases concern participation rights, not sports event contracts under federal regulation, leaving the market's specific question unresolved.
Supreme Court Begins New Term with Key Sports Betting Cases
The Court's October term opening signaled potential for new cases on sports betting regulation, with Kalshi litigation likely to be considered for Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. v. Heckman
July 31 plunges to 38%25%
On October 6, 2025, the Court denied certiorari in a case involving entertainment contracts, signaling a cautious approach to accepting sports-related contract cases, which contributed to a price decline.
Supreme Court Rejects Live Nation's Bid to Move Ticket Price Case to Arbitration
July 31 drops to 69%5%
The Supreme Court declined to hear Live Nation's request to move a consumer class action lawsuit over ticket price disputes into private arbitration, affirming federal court jurisdiction and potentially impacting how sports-related contract disputes are resolved.
Supreme Court term begins with cases on voting rights, tariffs and conversion therapy
July 31 drops to 63%11%
The Supreme Court opened its 2025-2026 term on October 6, 2025, with cases addressing major political and social issues, including transgender sports participation. However, no case explicitly concerning sports event contracts or their regulation was granted certiorari, limiting direct impact on the market's resolution criteria.
Supreme Court denies petition for certiorari in Jump Trading, LLC v. Patterson
July 31 plunges to 34%30%
The Supreme Court declined to review a case involving Jump Trading, LLC, signaling its stance on commercial and financial trading disputes as the new term commenced.
Supreme Court denies certiorari petitions in key sports contract-related cases
July 31 drops to 63%12%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari petitions in cases involving sports event contracts and arbitration agreements, signaling reluctance to take up these issues at this time and causing a market price decline.
Petition for certiorari denied in Live Nation Entertainment v. Heckman
July 31 plunges to 34%33%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a case involving sports contract regulation, which likely caused the market price to drop after a previous surge.
SCOTUS Denies Maverick Gaming Appeal on Washington Tribal Sports Betting
July 31 drops to 66%9%
On October 6, 2025, the Supreme Court declined to hear Maverick Gaming's challenge to Washington state's tribal-exclusive sports betting framework, leaving the existing regulatory structure intact. This decision indicated SCOTUS was not yet intervening in sports betting contract disputes, tempering market expectations and causing a price decline from 75% to 66%.
Supreme Court begins 2025-2026 term with cases on voting rights, tariffs, and transgender sports
July 31 drops to 63%11%
The Supreme Court opened its term on October 6, 2025, with cases including transgender sports disputes. However, no certiorari grant was announced for cases involving sports event contracts or the Commodity Exchange Act, limiting direct impact on the market for that specific question.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois over prediction‑market regulation
July 31 drops to 62%12%
The Justice Department filed a lawsuit challenging three states’ attempts to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that the CFTC, not the states, has exclusive authority. The move reinforced expectations of federal preemption, causing the Yes price to retreat from its peak.
Kalshi's Preemption Argument Faces Rejection in Third Circuit
July 31 drops to 65%10%
During oral argument in the Third Circuit, Kalshi's position that states can subject sports books to their own authority was challenged, suggesting potential appeal to the Supreme Court.
Federal judge denies Crypto.com injunction against Nevada gaming board
July 31 drops to 62%7%
A Nevada federal judge denied Crypto.com's request for an injunction to block enforcement of a cease-and-desist order on its sports event contracts, signaling judicial skepticism about classifying these contracts as regulated swaps. This decision contrasted with an earlier injunction granted to Kalshi, impacting market confidence in SCOTUS intervention.
Trump administration backs prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battles
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC, publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket against state efforts to regulate or ban prediction markets, emphasizing federal exclusive jurisdiction. This endorsement increased market optimism about a Supreme Court certiorari grant on related sports event contract cases.
SCOTUS opens 2025 term with transgender sports cases
July 31 dips to 74%1%
The Supreme Court began its October term with major cases addressing transgender athletes in sports, including Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J., which raised broader legal questions about gender identity and sports regulation.
Federal court denies Crypto.com injunction on Nevada sports contracts, highlighting legal uncertainty
On October 3, 2025, a Nevada federal court denied Crypto.com's injunction request against state enforcement actions on sports event contracts, contrasting with a prior injunction granted to Kalshi. This underscored ongoing legal debates about the classification of sports contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, influencing market confidence.
Crypto.com sues Nevada Gaming Control Board over sports event contracts injunction
July 31 jumps to 68%5%
Crypto.com filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada seeking an injunction to block enforcement of a cease-and-desist order against its sports event contracts, raising key questions about derivative regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Nevada federal judge denies injunction for sports event contracts, questioning CFTC jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 64%11%
A Nevada federal judge denied a preliminary injunction for sports event contracts, ruling that such contracts do not qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that state gambling laws may apply. This decision highlighted ongoing judicial uncertainty and the contested scope of CFTC authority, causing some market price volatility.
Nevada judge rules sports event contracts are not swaps under CEA
A Nevada federal judge ruled that sports event contracts offered by Crypto.com are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, undermining the federal preemption argument and intensifying legal uncertainty. This ruling caused market volatility but reinforced the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
SCOTUS kicks off 2025-2026 term with key cases previewed
July 31 dips to 63%4%
The Supreme Court began its new term, setting the stage for several important cases that could impact sports betting and gambling regulations, including those involving federal preemption of state laws.
Trans athlete at center of SCOTUS girls' sports case tries to drop lawsuit
July 31 dips to 74%1%
On October 3, 2025, the transgender athlete central to the Little v. Hecox case sought to dismiss the lawsuit, creating uncertainty about the case's progression. This procedural development affected market sentiment regarding the Court's potential involvement in sports-related contract cases.
CFTC issues advisory acknowledging state gambling laws apply to sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 62%13%
The CFTC staff issued an advisory clarifying that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws for sports-related event contracts, signaling regulatory caution and increasing legal uncertainty, which affected market sentiment.
CFTC Issues Advisory on Sports Event Contracts Amid Litigation
July 31 drops to 63%12%
The CFTC staff issued an advisory acknowledging ongoing state litigation against sports event contracts and cautioning market participants about potential state regulatory actions. This signaled regulatory uncertainty and the agency's cautious stance, influencing market expectations about the legal trajectory toward the Supreme Court.
U.S. senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A bipartisan group of senators sent a letter to the CFTC criticizing its failure to enforce prohibitions against sports event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, emphasizing the risk of federalizing an area traditionally regulated by states. This political pressure increased market expectations of a Supreme Court case.
Bipartisan senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 jumps to 66%7%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators publicly criticized the CFTC for allowing platforms to offer sports event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, raising concerns about federal overreach and state regulatory authority. This political pressure increased market expectations of legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court.
CFTC issues advisory on exchange-listed sports event contracts amid ongoing litigation
The CFTC released an advisory addressing the legal landscape of sports event contracts, noting ongoing lawsuits by states and tribes claiming these contracts violate state gambling laws, highlighting regulatory uncertainty.
CFTC issues advisory on legal risks of sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 63%3%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued Advisory 25-36 warning market participants about legal and regulatory risks associated with sports-related event contracts, noting ongoing state regulatory actions and pending litigation. This advisory underscored regulatory uncertainty and the potential for further legal challenges.
Bipartisan Group of Senators Demands Answers from CFTC Over Sports Betting Contracts
July 31 jumps to 75%8%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC raising concerns that platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood are offering contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, challenging federal preemption.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets
July 31 rises to 64%1%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction. This escalated the legal conflict and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Senators demand CFTC enforce laws against unregulated sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 63%47%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham accusing the agency of allowing event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, urging enforcement to uphold state and tribal regulatory authority. This heightened scrutiny increased market uncertainty about federal regulatory outcomes.
Senators demand CFTC enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 75%16%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair on October 2, 2025, accusing the agency of lax enforcement allowing unregulated sports betting contracts to operate across state lines. This escalated congressional scrutiny and increased market expectations of regulatory and legal developments potentially leading to Supreme Court review.
Bipartisan U.S. Senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 drops to 62%13%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators publicly criticized the CFTC for allowing event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting across state lines, urging the agency to enforce prohibitions and protect state regulatory authority. This political pressure increased uncertainty about the future regulatory stance and potential litigation outcomes.
SCOTUS Defers Stay Action on Kalshi Case Pending Oral Argument
July 31 drops to 63%12%
The Supreme Court deferred action on the stay request for the Kalshi case, with oral argument scheduled for January 2026, confirming the Court's ongoing review of the preemption issue involving sports event contracts.
U.S. Senators demand CFTC enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 jumps to 75%13%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair accusing the agency of lax enforcement allowing unregulated sports betting contracts across states. The letter emphasized that such contracts fall under state regulation and warned against federal overreach, increasing pressure on the CFTC and raising the profile of the legal dispute potentially leading to Supreme Court review.
Mixed court rulings on Kalshi and Polymarket sports betting operations in various states
July 31 dips to 63%2%
Federal and state judges issued mixed rulings on Kalshi and Polymarket's ability to offer sports betting contracts, with some courts siding with states banning the platforms and others favoring the companies. This legal uncertainty caused market volatility but maintained elevated interest in a Supreme Court decision by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court Expected to Grant Certiorari in Sports Event Contracts Case
July 31 drops to 64%9%
Legal scholars and analysts pointed to the emergence of a circuit split as the key trigger for Supreme Court intervention, with most projections placing a grant between November and December 2026.
Senators demand CFTC answers over lax oversight of sports‑event contracts
July 31 drops to 63%12%
Six bipartisan senators sent a formal letter to Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham demanding answers on the agency’s lax enforcement of sports‑event contracts. Media coverage highlighted the risk of a federal‑state regulatory clash, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a Supreme Court review and pulling the Yes price down from 75 % to 63 % by Oct 5.
Bipartisan Senators Demand CFTC Crack Down on Sports Betting Contracts
July 31 jumps to 68%7%
A bipartisan group of six U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC accusing the agency of allowing unregulated sports betting across state lines, raising the stakes for federal court intervention.
U.S. Senators question CFTC's allowance of sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 62%1%
Several U.S. senators publicly criticized the CFTC for permitting sports event contracts that may violate federal and state laws, increasing political pressure and uncertainty around the regulatory environment.
Supreme Court defers action on stay request pending January 2026 oral argument
July 31 drops to 66%9%
The Supreme Court deferred action on a stay request related to the sports event contract litigation, indicating ongoing active consideration of the case and maintaining market uncertainty. This contributed to price fluctuations as the market digested the Court's procedural moves.
Federal appeals court upholds injunction blocking New Jersey gambling enforcement on Kalshi
December 31 plunges to 32%32%
The Third Circuit ruled that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi's sports event contracts, preempting New Jersey's gambling laws, bolstering the federal preemption argument and increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi’s request to block state gaming regulations
July 31 drops to 63%12%
A Maryland federal judge ruled against Kalshi, denying a preliminary injunction and holding that state gaming laws were not preempted by the CEA, signaling a judicial split and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review to resolve conflicting interpretations of federal preemption in sports event contracts.
US Senators Question CFTC Over Legality of Sports Event Contracts
July 31 drops to 63%12%
Several U.S. senators wrote to the CFTC questioning why the federal regulator is allowing sports event contracts, arguing they constitute illegal gambling under state laws.
Bipartisan Senators Demand CFTC Action on Sports Betting Contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Six U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair criticizing the agency for allowing sports betting contracts to be offered as event contracts, arguing this undermines state and tribal regulatory authority and violates federal law. This increased political pressure on the CFTC and raised the likelihood of legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court.
Senators question CFTC's allowance of sports event contracts amid state law conflicts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 30, 2025, Senators including Catherine Cortez Masto and John Curtis sent a letter to CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham criticizing the Commission for permitting sports event contracts that they argue violate federal and state laws. This heightened regulatory scrutiny increased market expectations for a Supreme Court case by July 31, 2026.
Senators Curtis and Cortez Masto press CFTC on enforcement of illegal gaming in sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Senators Curtis and Cortez Masto led a bipartisan group in a letter to CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham, criticizing the Commission for allowing sports betting activities under the guise of event contracts and urging enforcement of state and tribal gaming laws. This political pressure underscored the contentious regulatory environment and likely contributed to increased market anticipation of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC issues advisory highlighting pending litigation over sports event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory acknowledging ongoing and potential litigation concerning sports event contracts, noting it had not taken official action to approve such contracts. This underscored regulatory uncertainty and contributed to market volatility.
Senators demand CFTC enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 59%18%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC criticizing lax enforcement on sports betting contracts, arguing that such contracts undermine state and tribal regulatory authority. This congressional pressure heightened regulatory uncertainty and influenced market volatility.
CFTC issues advisory amid pending litigation on sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory acknowledging ongoing litigation and confirming it had not approved sports event contracts on designated contract markets, highlighting regulatory uncertainty and fueling market speculation about potential Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC advisory on exchange‑listed sports event contracts released
July 31 jumps to 75%14%
The CFTC issued an advisory letter warning of a pending government shutdown and outlining its tentative stance toward sports‑event contracts. Analysts interpreted the advisory as a signal that the agency might tighten oversight, raising the prospect of a Supreme Court conflict and prompting a noticeable price jump.
Bipartisan senators question CFTC on allowing sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 63%4%
Several U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC questioning why it permits sports event contracts, arguing such contracts involve gaming and violate federal and state laws, intensifying political pressure on the regulator.
CFTC issues advisory highlighting legal risks of sports event contracts amid state challenges
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 30, 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued Advisory 25-36 warning market participants about ongoing state regulatory actions and litigation concerning sports-related event contracts, underscoring the regulatory uncertainty and potential for legal conflict. This advisory increased market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC issues advisory on exchange-listed sports event contracts amid regulatory uncertainty
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory acknowledging ongoing litigation and clarifying it had not approved sports event contracts on designated contract markets, highlighting regulatory ambiguity and increasing expectations for judicial resolution.
CFTC Staff Issues Advisory Warning of State Regulatory Actions on Sports Contracts
July 31 drops to 63%11%
The CFTC staff issued an advisory cautioning market participants that sports-related event contracts remain subject to state regulatory actions and pending litigation, highlighting the growing legal uncertainty.
CFTC issues Advisory 25-36 warning of state-level challenges to sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 68%3%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory cautioning market participants about legal and regulatory risks from ongoing state enforcement actions and litigation challenging the legality of sports-related event contracts, contributing to market volatility.
CFTC issues advisory clarifying sports event contracts and state gambling laws
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a letter clarifying that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-registered venues. This official acknowledgment increased market speculation about potential Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC Issues Advisory Warning of State-Level Challenges to Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The CFTC issued Staff Advisory 25-36, cautioning market participants about the legal and regulatory risks of sports-related event contracts and highlighting state-level challenges.
U.S. Senators urge CFTC to respect state and tribal sports betting laws
July 31 surges to 41%25%
Senators including Catherine Cortez Masto and John Curtis sent a letter to CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham warning against the CFTC permitting sports event contracts that override state and tribal gaming laws. This heightened regulatory scrutiny increased market expectations for a Supreme Court case to resolve jurisdictional conflicts.
U.S. Senators challenge CFTC on allowing sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 41%25%
Several U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC Acting Chair questioning the agency's allowance of sports event contracts, arguing that such contracts involve gaming and should not override state and tribal gaming laws. This political pressure raised concerns about federal preemption and regulatory authority, causing a sharp market price increase.
Senators urge CFTC to enforce prohibitions on sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 57%41%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham warning against lax enforcement of prohibitions on event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, emphasizing that sports gambling regulation is reserved to the states. This increased regulatory scrutiny raised the likelihood of legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court.
Kalshi sues New York, alleging CFTC preemption of state sports‑betting laws
July 31 rises to 63%4%
Kalshi filed a federal complaint seeking an injunction against New York’s cease‑and‑desist letter that branded its sports‑event contracts as illegal gambling. The filing sparked intense media coverage about the preemption argument, lifting expectations that the dispute could reach the Supreme Court and nudging the market higher.
CFTC issues advisory acknowledging sports event contracts litigation
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory on September 30, 2025, recognizing ongoing litigation over sports event contracts and clarifying it had not approved such contracts. This underscored regulatory uncertainty and the split among courts, fueling speculation about Supreme Court intervention and sustaining elevated market prices.
CFTC issues advisory on legal risks of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued Advisory 25-36 warning market participants about the legal and regulatory risks associated with sports-related event contracts, highlighting ongoing state regulatory actions and litigation. This advisory increased market attention on the potential for Supreme Court involvement in resolving jurisdictional conflicts.
CFTC issues advisory acknowledging pending litigation on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 63%3%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory recognizing ongoing and potential litigation concerning sports event contracts, signaling regulatory awareness but no formal approval, which contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Senators demand CFTC enforce prohibitions on sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC criticizing its lax enforcement on sports event contracts, arguing these contracts undermine state and tribal regulatory authority and are contrary to the public interest. This heightened regulatory scrutiny increased market expectations of legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court.
CFTC issues advisory on sports event contracts amid ongoing litigation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory acknowledging pending and potential litigation over sports event contracts and confirmed it had not taken official action to approve such contracts. This highlighted regulatory uncertainty and contributed to market speculation about eventual Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC Issues Advisory on Pending Litigation Over Sports Event Contracts
July 31 jumps to 77%14%
On September 30, 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory acknowledging ongoing litigation concerning sports event contracts and confirmed it had not yet taken official action to approve such contracts. This official recognition of the legal dispute contributed to a peak market price of 77%, reflecting heightened expectations of Supreme Court review.
Maryland district court preliminarily rules state gaming laws not preempted by federal Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 surges to 75%16%
A Maryland district court ruled on September 30, 2025, that Congress did not intend to preempt state gaming laws in the context of sports event contracts, contradicting other federal court decisions. This split in circuit court rulings increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review to resolve the conflict.
Petition for certiorari in sports event contract case filed
July 31 surges to 75%15%
A petition for certiorari was filed in a case concerning sports event contracts, which likely triggered the market's price surge to 75%.
Massachusetts seeks injunction to block Kalshi's sports prediction market
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Massachusetts Attorney General filed suit to block Kalshi from operating sports event contracts under state gaming laws, challenging Kalshi's claim of exclusive federal jurisdiction. This heightened legal uncertainty and pushed market prices higher.
CFTC Acting Chair discusses prediction markets amid state regulator concerns
July 31 surges to 75%16%
On September 29, 2025, CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham spoke about prediction markets, highlighting their importance but not addressing sports event contracts specifically. State regulators expressed concern that these contracts resemble sports betting and compete with state-licensed sportsbooks, fueling legal disputes and market uncertainty.
SCOTUS long conference to assess arbitration and contract cases including sports-related disputes
July 31 surges to 77%15%
On September 29, 2025, the Supreme Court held a long conference to consider certiorari petitions including cases related to arbitration and contracts, which may encompass sports event contract issues. This event coincided with a market peak at 77%, reflecting heightened expectations of certiorari grants.
Third Circuit Affirms Kalshi Injunction, Blocking New Jersey Enforcement
July 31 surges to 77%18%
The Third Circuit announced a 2‑1 decision affirming the federal district court’s preliminary injunction that blocks New Jersey from enforcing its cease‑and‑desist order against Kalshi. The victory was seen as a strong signal that the Supreme Court may eventually be asked to resolve the split, driving the market up to its all‑time high of 77 % Yes.
Federal courts show deepening disagreement on sports event contract regulation
July 31 surges to 77%18%
Federal courts issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal preemption applies, increasing expectations that SCOTUS will resolve the issue soon, driving the market to its peak.
Kalshi’s preliminary injunction upheld in Nevada, boosting certiorari chances
July 31 jumps to 75%14%
The U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction, holding that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for CFTC-designated exchanges. This ruling increased market confidence that SCOTUS might grant certiorari to resolve the dispute.
Third Circuit Oral Arguments Highlight State vs Federal Jurisdiction Over Sports Event Contracts
July 31 jumps to 75%14%
During oral arguments, Kalshi acknowledged states' authority to regulate sports books, but also asserted CFTC jurisdiction, intensifying debate over federal preemption and regulatory control, causing a market peak.
Federal district courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming authorities
July 31 surges to 77%18%
Federal district courts in New Jersey and Nevada granted preliminary injunctions to KalshiEX LLC, blocking state gaming authorities from enjoining Kalshi's sports event contracts. This legal success boosted market optimism about eventual Supreme Court review.
CFTC Acting Chair Remarks Highlight State Regulator Concerns Over Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 75%16%
At a regulatory roundtable, CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham discussed prediction markets without specifically addressing sports event contracts, while state regulators expressed concern that these contracts are effectively sports betting competing with state-licensed sportsbooks. This event underscored regulatory tensions and likely sustained market interest in a Supreme Court resolution.
Federal courts split on preemption of state gambling laws by CFTC regulation
July 31 surges to 77%18%
Conflicting court rulings in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland on whether sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA and thus federally preempt state gambling laws heightened expectations that the Supreme Court would need to resolve the dispute.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming regulators
July 31 surges to 77%18%
By late September 2025, federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions blocking state enforcement actions against Kalshi, supporting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for CFTC-regulated event contracts. This legal validation caused the market price to peak at 77%.
CFTC issues Advisory 25-36 warning on sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory cautioning market participants about legal risks associated with sports-related event contracts, highlighting ongoing state cease-and-desist actions and regulatory uncertainty. This advisory contributed to market volatility and increased attention on the issue.
Market optimism peaks amid ongoing sports event contract litigation
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Following the Nevada ruling and increased attention on sports event contracts, market prices peaked as traders anticipated potential Supreme Court certiorari. The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group also contributed to bullish sentiment.
Nevada judge denies preliminary injunction, creating uncertainty for sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 75%14%
A federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit against a sports event contract provider, leading to a temporary setback for Kalshi and similar operators. This decision caused market volatility as it cast doubt on the path to SCOTUS review.
Kalshi’s Legal Position on Federal Preemption Gains Attention in Appeals
July 31 surges to 77%18%
Kalshi argued that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, preempting state laws, which increased market speculation about potential Supreme Court review of these preemption issues.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket amid state bans
July 31 jumps to 74%9%
The Trump administration publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig asserting federal regulatory authority and warning states against overreach. This endorsement increased market optimism about federal preemption and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Kalshi's preliminary injunction success boosts market optimism
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Following earlier district court injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming authorities, market prices peaked as investors anticipated Supreme Court involvement to resolve the regulatory conflict over sports event contracts.
Kalshi Sues New York Over State Sports Betting Laws
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against New York to block enforcement of state sports betting laws on its sports-event contracts, asserting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This lawsuit highlighted the legal conflict between federal regulation and state gambling laws, increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Kalshi preliminary injunction reversed in Nevada, fueling legal uncertainty
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting the prior holding that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation of sports event contracts. This reversal intensified the legal dispute and speculation about SCOTUS intervention.
Market speculation intensifies as Kalshi lawsuits highlight federal-state regulatory conflicts
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Ongoing litigation involving Kalshi and other sports event contract providers underscored the unresolved federal preemption issues, driving market prices higher amid expectations of Supreme Court intervention.
Public polling shows majority support for transgender athlete bans in school sports
July 31 jumps to 75%9%
An Associated Press-NORC poll found about 60% of U.S. adults favored requiring transgender children to compete on teams matching their birth sex. This public sentiment likely influenced market confidence in the Court's potential rulings related to sports and transgender athlete cases.
Kalshi granted preliminary injunction against New Jersey gaming enforcement
July 31 surges to 75%16%
On September 27, 2025, the New Jersey District Court granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction, ruling that its sports-related event contracts fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive jurisdiction, suggesting federal preemption over state gambling laws. This bolstered market confidence in eventual Supreme Court review.
Market optimism peaks amid anticipation of SCOTUS involvement in sports contract regulation
July 31 surges to 75%15%
Following ongoing litigation and regulatory developments, market prices peaked as traders anticipated the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on a sports event contract case, reflecting heightened expectations of federal judicial resolution.
FanDuel partners with CME Group amid sports event contract legal uncertainty
July 31 surges to 75%16%
FanDuel's partnership with CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, highlighted the growing intersection of sports event contracts and regulated financial markets, fueling speculation that the Supreme Court might soon address the legal status of such contracts. This development contributed to a further price rise in the market.
Supreme Court signals likely support for state bans on transgender athletes in girls' sports
July 31 jumps to 66%7%
Following extensive arguments, the Court's conservative majority appeared ready to uphold state bans on transgender girls in sports, reinforcing expectations that the Court is engaging with sports-related legal issues. This contributed to further price increases in the market.
New Jersey Set to Appeal Third Circuit Ruling to Supreme Court, Keeping Kalshi Case on Hold
July 31 surges to 75%16%
New Jersey filed a petition for certiorari to appeal the Third Circuit's decision upholding Kalshi's request for injunctive relief, further increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Nevada court grants preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi on federal preemption
July 31 jumps to 66%7%
The U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction, holding that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for CFTC-regulated sports event contracts. This ruling supported Kalshi's federal preemption argument and boosted market optimism for SCOTUS review.
New Jersey regulators announce intent to seek Supreme Court review of Third Circuit ruling in Kalshi case
July 31 jumps to 65%5%
New Jersey gaming regulators filed a motion to extend trial delay, stating their intent to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision favoring Kalshi. This development underscored the growing legal battle and increased market expectations for Supreme Court certiorari.
Supreme Court takes up 33 cases for 2025-2026 term
July 31 jumps to 66%7%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear 33 cases during the 2025-2026 term, increasing overall legal activity and potentially including cases on sports regulation and derivatives.
Bipartisan senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 75%59%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair criticizing the agency for allowing event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, raising concerns about federal overreach and state regulatory authority, which heightened market expectations of legal escalation.
Federal court denies preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Maryland case
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
In late September 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, emphasizing the presumption against federal preemption in gambling regulation. This decision caused market price volatility as it cast doubt on federal preemption claims.
SCOTUS Reconsiders Sports Contract Case for 2026 Decision
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Supreme Court announced it would reconsider a prior case involving sports contracts, signaling potential certiorari in a case concerning the legality and regulation of sports event contracts.
Supreme Court begins 2025-2026 term with 33 cases accepted
The Supreme Court started its new term having agreed to hear 33 cases, signaling active docket management but no sports event contract cases announced yet. This set a baseline for market speculation on potential new case acceptances.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating predictive market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 rises to 77%2%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling confirmed that event contracts constitute regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that the CFTC has demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing federal preemption over Arizona law. This directly addresses the market's criteria regarding sports event contracts and federal/state regulatory authority.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois over prediction‑market regulation
July 31 jumps to 75%10%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits challenging three states’ attempts to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive authority. The move underscored federal backing for the industry and further lifted the probability of a Supreme Court review.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
The federal government filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act. This legal action reinforced expectations that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on related issues by July 31, 2026.
New Jersey regulators announce intent to seek Supreme Court review of Third Circuit ruling
July 31 jumps to 67%8%
New Jersey gaming regulators declared their plan to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision favoring Kalshi, reinforcing the likelihood of a circuit split and increasing the probability of Supreme Court intervention.
SCOTUS sets September 25 deadline for response to sports betting stay application
July 31 jumps to 26%10%
The Supreme Court established a response deadline for a stay application related to sports betting, increasing uncertainty about regulatory actions and influencing market expectations for potential certiorari grants.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket against state efforts to ban prediction markets, emphasizing federal exclusive jurisdiction and increasing expectations of a legal showdown potentially reaching the Supreme Court.
Nevada federal court grants preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi
July 31 jumps to 68%9%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction, holding that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for CFTC-designated exchanges. This ruling boosted market confidence in federal preemption.
Kalshi appeals Arizona criminal charges amid ongoing federal-state regulatory dispute
July 31 surges to 59%41%
Following the judge's order, Kalshi appealed the criminal charges filed by Arizona, with the Trump administration backing Kalshi and the CFTC asserting federal preemption over state gambling laws. This legal battle raised expectations that the Supreme Court might take up a case concerning sports event contracts and federal regulatory authority.
FJP Files Brief Urging Supreme Court to Grant Review in Gender-Based Jury Discrimination Case
Fair and Just Prosecution filed an amicus brief supporting a petition for certiorari in a gender-based jury discrimination case, highlighting constitutional violations and the need for Supreme Court intervention.
Chief Judge Gordon dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi in Nevada case
July 31 surges to 75%16%
After initially granting a preliminary injunction in April, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his position and dissolved the injunction on November 24, 2025, rejecting the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state gaming laws. This reversal deepened legal uncertainty and influenced market pricing.
SCOTUS Denies Certiorari in Florida Sports Betting Case
July 31 plunges to 61%16%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in the Florida sports betting case involving the Seminole Tribe gaming compact, which had been closely watched by legal experts in the gambling industry.
Petition for Certiorari Filed in Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 surges to 74%15%
The U.S. Department of Justice filed a petition for a writ of certiorari in a case involving sports event contracts, potentially addressing regulatory and jurisdictional questions related to federal and state authorities.
CFTC issues Advisory 25-36 warning of state-level challenges to sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 75%15%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory highlighting ongoing state regulatory actions and legal risks associated with sports event contracts, signaling regulatory uncertainty and potential for further litigation.
SCOTUS to review arbitration case involving sports contracts at Sept. 29 long conference
July 31 surges to 61%45%
The Supreme Court scheduled a long conference on September 29 to review certiorari petitions, including an arbitration case involving sports contracts, signaling potential interest in sports-related contract disputes.
Supreme Court grants stay and agrees to review merits of key sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 22, 2025, the Supreme Court issued a stay and granted certiorari before judgment to review a case involving the regulatory status of sports event contracts, signaling potential high court involvement and causing a sharp price increase in the market.
Supreme Court grants certiorari before judgment in sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Supreme Court agreed to review the merits of a case concerning the legality and regulation of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, scheduling oral argument for December 8, 2025. This certiorari grant directly impacted the market by increasing the perceived likelihood of Supreme Court review by the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Market surges on speculation of SCOTUS sports contract case acceptance
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The market price jumped from 16% to 59% amid growing speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case, reflecting increased trader optimism about a potential acceptance by July 31, 2026.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In September 2025, federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey issued preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, holding that state gaming laws are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act for CFTC-regulated sports event contracts. This judicial split increased expectations that the Supreme Court would need to resolve the issue.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming regulators
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In September 2025, federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions preventing state regulators from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, supporting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state laws. This boosted market optimism about eventual Supreme Court review.
Certiorari petition filed in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The National Basketball Association filed a petition for certiorari related to sports contracts, raising market expectations that the Supreme Court might accept a sports event contract case, causing a sharp price increase.
Kalshi and other prediction market cases likely heading to SCOTUS
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Reports emerged that Kalshi and similar operators, regulated by the CFTC, are involved in legal battles over sports event contracts, with speculation growing that SCOTUS may grant certiorari to clarify federal preemption and regulatory issues. This news caused a sharp price increase reflecting heightened market expectations for a Supreme Court review by July 31, 2026.
Speculation rises on SCOTUS taking sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 60%44%
Market price surged from 16% to 60% as speculation grew that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts, possibly related to regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act or state gambling laws. This reflected increased attention to pending legal questions about sports contracts and federal versus state authority.
Market optimism grows on federal preemption in sports contract regulation
July 31 surges to 59%18%
Following the preliminary injunctions, legal analysis highlighted the potential for SCOTUS to resolve the split between federal and state authority over sports event contracts, boosting market prices as participants anticipated a certiorari grant.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring sports event contract platforms
July 31 surges to 59%41%
In late September 2025, federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions protecting sports event contract platforms like Kalshi from state regulatory actions, suggesting federal preemption and increasing market expectations that SCOTUS might take up related cases.
Nevada federal judge denies preliminary injunction, halting sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract operator, leading to a halt in offering such contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved. This ruling highlighted ongoing legal uncertainty and increased market speculation about potential Supreme Court involvement.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state law and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This ruling significantly boosted market confidence that the Supreme Court might take up related regulatory issues.
34 states file amicus brief supporting New Jersey gaming authorities in Kalshi appeal
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In the KalshiEX LLC appeal to the Third Circuit, 34 states, the District of Columbia, and the Northern Mariana Islands filed an amicus brief backing New Jersey gaming authorities, signaling strong state opposition to Kalshi's sports event contracts. This heightened legal scrutiny caused a sharp market price increase reflecting higher chances of SCOTUS involvement.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming laws
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In September 2025, federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions preventing state regulators from enforcing gaming laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, supporting the argument that the CEA preempts state gambling laws. This boosted market confidence that the Supreme Court might take up the issue, causing a sharp price increase from 16% to 59%.
34 States File Amicus Brief Supporting New Jersey Gaming Authorities in Kalshi Appeal
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Thirty-four states, the District of Columbia, and the Northern Mariana Islands filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey gaming authorities in the KalshiEX LLC appeal to the 3rd Circuit, signaling strong state opposition to sports event contracts and raising the profile of the legal battle, which drove market optimism about potential Supreme Court involvement.
Nevada federal judge rules NCAA eligibility rules subject to antitrust scrutiny
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A Nevada federal judge ruled that NCAA eligibility rules are commercial in nature and subject to antitrust scrutiny, highlighting the legal challenges around sports-related contracts and athlete compensation. This ruling increased market speculation about federal legal scrutiny of sports contracts, indirectly impacting the sports event contract market.
CFTC issues advisory acknowledging pending litigation over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 30, 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory noting awareness of ongoing and potential litigation concerning sports event contracts listed on designated contract markets, highlighting regulatory uncertainty and increasing market anticipation of a Supreme Court resolution.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction in Nevada sports event contract lawsuit
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction requested by Crypto.com in a cease-and-desist lawsuit, signaling ongoing legal challenges for sports event contracts and increasing speculation that the Supreme Court might eventually review such cases.
Federal judge rules against Crypto.com in Nevada sports event contract lawsuit
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon issued a ruling favoring Nevada in litigation against Crypto.com over the permissibility of sports event contracts, highlighting ongoing legal challenges and uncertainty in the market. This ruling increased market expectations that SCOTUS might take up a related case.
Market surges on speculation of SCOTUS interest in sports contracts case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The market price jumped from 16% to 59% as speculation grew that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts, reflecting increased optimism about a potential review.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, pauses criminal case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi and paused the state's criminal prosecution, citing the Commodity Exchange Act's preemption of state law. This ruling supported the federal regulatory authority of the CFTC over event contracts, boosting market confidence in a Supreme Court certiorari grant by July 31, 2026.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling found the CFTC had demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that federal law preempts Arizona's gambling regulations. This decision directly supports the market's resolution criteria on federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, emphasizing federal regulatory authority and opposing state bans. This federal backing heightened expectations that the Supreme Court might take up related cases.
Federal judge rules against sports event contracts in Nevada lawsuit
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon issued a ruling favoring Nevada in litigation against Crypto.com, halting sports event contracts in the state pending case resolution. This ruling heightened market expectations for Supreme Court involvement, causing a sharp price increase.
Federal judge rules against preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal district court judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction sought by Crypto.com in a cease-and-desist lawsuit, effectively halting sports event contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved. This ruling heightened market expectations for eventual Supreme Court involvement.
Kalshi sues New York to block state sports betting enforcement
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against New York state to prevent enforcement of state sports betting laws against its sports event contracts, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation. This high-profile litigation underscored the federal-state regulatory conflict and increased market expectations for eventual Supreme Court review.
Speculation rises on SCOTUS certiorari for sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Around mid-September 2025, market prices surged from 16% to 59%, reflecting growing speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts, possibly related to federal regulation or arbitration issues. This spike indicates increased investor confidence in a cert grant by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court Denies Live Nation's Petition for Certiorari in Ticket Price Case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Supreme Court declined to hear Live Nation's appeal challenging a consumer class action lawsuit over allegedly rigged ticket prices, reinforcing federal court jurisdiction over such disputes and signaling potential regulatory scrutiny of sports-related contract issues.
Market surges on speculation SCOTUS may grant certiorari on sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 65%49%
Following the Massachusetts ruling and ongoing legal disputes, market prices surged as traders anticipated the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the regulatory conflicts surrounding sports event contracts.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
July 31 surges to 59%43%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, emphasizing that the CFTC has shown event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and may preempt state law. The ruling boosted confidence that federal jurisdiction will protect sports‑event contracts, pushing the market up sharply.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators like Kalshi
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi, affirming the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts classified as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling increased market confidence that federal regulation would preempt state laws, raising the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court begins hearing arguments on transgender athlete bans in school sports
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Supreme Court started hearing arguments on state laws barring transgender girls and women from playing on school athletic teams, a high-profile sports-related case. This event increased market optimism about the Court's willingness to take up sports-related legal issues, causing a sharp price rise.
New Jersey District Court Grants Kalshi Preliminary Injunction
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The court ruled Kalshi's sports event contracts fall under CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, potentially setting precedent for federal preemption over state gambling laws.
Ninth Circuit hears appeals on state gambling laws vs. federally regulated prediction markets
December 31 surges to 75%59%
The Ninth Circuit panel heard oral arguments in consolidated appeals challenging state enforcement of gambling laws against CFTC-regulated event contracts, a key step that could lead to Supreme Court certiorari due to circuit splits on federal preemption.
FanDuel partners with CME Group, signaling sports gambling and derivatives market convergence
July 31 surges to 59%43%
FanDuel's partnership with CME Group, a major derivatives marketplace, heightened market expectations that the Supreme Court might soon address legal questions about sports event contracts, driving a sharp price increase in the prediction market.
Supreme Court grants certiorari before judgment in key federal agency case
July 31 surges to 57%41%
On September 22, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari before judgment to review a case involving federal agency authority, signaling the Court's willingness to hear significant regulatory disputes, which boosted market expectations for a sports event contract case review.
Market surges on speculation of SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 16, 2025, the market price jumped from 16% to 59%, reflecting growing expectations that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts. This was likely influenced by ongoing legal disputes and industry partnerships signaling regulatory scrutiny.
Kalshi wins preliminary injunction in New Jersey, boosting chances of SCOTUS review
July 31 surges to 57%41%
The New Jersey District Court granted Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction against state gaming enforcement, reasoning that Kalshi's sports event contracts fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction. This ruling increased market optimism about SCOTUS eventually taking up the case.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on sports event contracts regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey issued contradictory rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts, deepening legal uncertainty and impacting market prices.
Supreme Court conference discusses sports event contract cases
July 31 surges to 57%41%
The Supreme Court held a conference on September 16, 2025, where cases related to sports event contracts were considered but no certiorari was granted, causing a sharp market price increase due to speculation about potential future grants.
Federal judge rules against preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Nevada case
July 31 surges to 57%41%
A federal judge denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit involving sports event contracts in Nevada, signaling ongoing legal challenges and uncertainty about the regulation of such contracts. This ruling increased market expectations that the Supreme Court might eventually take up a related case.
Supreme Court conference discusses National Basketball Association v. Salazar petition
July 31 plunges to 27%35%
The Supreme Court distributed the petition for certiorari in the NBA v. Salazar case for conference on November 21, 2025, but ultimately denied certiorari on December 8, 2025. This denial dampened market expectations for SCOTUS intervention on sports event contracts at that time.
Kalshi Litigation Momentum Builds as Preemption Debate Intensifies
July 31 surges to 75%59%
Following the New Jersey decision, Kalshi's legal challenge to state gaming regulators gained momentum, with multiple cases in pipeline and heightened anticipation that the Supreme Court would resolve the federal preemption issue.
Federal judge issues ruling favoring state in sports event contract litigation
July 31 surges to 57%41%
On September 16, 2025, a federal district court judge in Nevada ruled against a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract provider, reinforcing state authority over such contracts pending further resolution. This ruling heightened market expectations that the Supreme Court might intervene, causing a sharp price increase.
KalshiEx Files Preliminary Injunction Petition Against Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 74%17%
KalshiEx LLC filed a preliminary injunction petition challenging the legality of sports event contracts, sparking market speculation about a potential Supreme Court case on the issue.
Experts highlight need for Congress or SCOTUS action on sports event contracts
Legal experts noted that clarity on sports event contracts might require Congressional legislation or a Supreme Court ruling, fueling market speculation about potential SCOTUS involvement.
Supreme Court grants certiorari before judgment in key federal agency removal case
July 31 surges to 41%25%
On September 15, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari before judgment in Trump v. Slaughter, a case concerning the legality of for-cause removal protections for federal agency commissioners. While not directly about sports contracts, this event marked the Court's active docket and readiness to hear high-profile regulatory cases, indirectly increasing market confidence in SCOTUS taking significant cases this term, including sports event contracts.
Expert highlights need for SCOTUS clarity on prediction markets and CFTC authority
July 31 surges to 57%41%
Legal experts emphasized the unresolved federal preemption issues surrounding sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, suggesting potential Supreme Court involvement. This commentary increased market optimism for a certiorari grant by July 31, 2026.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including sports betting
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 15, 2025, the federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their regulation of prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting exclusive federal regulatory authority via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This lawsuit raised the prospect of Supreme Court involvement in sports betting and derivatives regulation, causing a sharp price jump in the July 31 outcome from 16% to 59%.
Senators Draft Letter Questioning CFTC Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A letter from senators raised concerns about whether sports event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, directly addressing one of the three qualifying legal issues for the market.
Senators question CFTC's allowance of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Several U.S. senators publicly challenged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's decision to allow sports event contracts, arguing that such contracts involve gaming and violate federal law, increasing regulatory uncertainty and impacting market sentiment.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal district court judge in Nevada ruled against a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract operator, reinforcing state-level restrictions and increasing market expectations that the issue might escalate to SCOTUS. This ruling caused a sharp price increase reflecting higher perceived likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on derivatives marketplace
July 31 surges to 41%25%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised concerns about potential sports event contract litigation and regulatory preemption, driving market optimism about a Supreme Court case.
Industry calls for Congressional or Supreme Court clarity on sports event contracts
On September 15, 2025, industry voices including gaming companies urged Congress or the Supreme Court to clarify whether sports event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or subject to state gambling laws. This highlighted the growing legal uncertainty and increased market speculation about eventual SCOTUS involvement.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring sports event contract platforms
July 31 surges to 41%25%
In April 2025, federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions protecting sports event contract platforms like Kalshi from state regulatory enforcement, suggesting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This legal momentum increased market confidence that SCOTUS might grant certiorari to resolve these jurisdictional conflicts.
Market reacts to ongoing litigation and potential SCOTUS involvement in sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 41%25%
Following recent court rulings and increasing legal disputes over sports event contracts, the market price surged significantly, reflecting growing expectations that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the federal-state regulatory conflict.
Federal judge rules against preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit against a sports event contract provider in Nevada, signaling ongoing legal challenges and uncertainty about the regulation of such contracts. This ruling increased market speculation that the Supreme Court might take up a related case soon.
Kalshi files opening brief in Fourth Circuit appeal challenging Maryland ruling
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Kalshi's appeal of the Maryland District Court's denial of a preliminary injunction was docketed in the Fourth Circuit, signaling a key step in the appellate process that could lead to Supreme Court review. This filing increased market confidence in a potential certiorari grant due to the emerging circuit split.
Speculation rises on SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 surges to 61%45%
Around mid-September 2025, market prices surged from 16% to over 60%, reflecting increased speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case involving regulation and jurisdictional authority. This spike likely stemmed from growing legal interest and filings in related sports contract disputes.
Calls for Congressional or SCOTUS Action on Sports Event Contract Clarity
July 31 surges to 57%41%
On September 15, 2025, industry observers highlighted the need for clarity on whether sports event contracts are included in the definition of swaps under federal law, suggesting that resolution could come from Congress, a Supreme Court case, or state rulings. This increased market optimism about a potential SCOTUS certiorari grant, reflected in a sharp price rise from 16% to 57%.
Legal experts highlight need for Congress or SCOTUS to clarify sports event contract regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 15, 2025, legal analysts emphasized that the Supreme Court or Congress must address the regulatory ambiguity surrounding sports event contracts offered by prediction markets, which are federally regulated by the CFTC but challenged by state gambling authorities. This commentary likely contributed to the initial price rise from 16% to 18% and then a sharp jump to 59% by late September, reflecting increased market belief in eventual SCOTUS involvement.
Legal Expert Outlines Path to Supreme Court Review for Prediction Markets
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Sports betting law expert Daniel Wallach noted that the core legal issue of prediction markets is the interpretation of Congress' intent in the CEA, suggesting that the ongoing state-level legal battles would likely require Supreme Court action to resolve.
Experts call for Congress or SCOTUS to clarify prediction market legality
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Legal experts and industry analysts highlighted the need for legislative or Supreme Court action to resolve the regulatory uncertainty surrounding sports event contracts offered by prediction markets like Kalshi. This commentary increased market optimism about a potential Supreme Court case acceptance.
Massachusetts Attorney General files lawsuit against Kalshi for unlicensed sports betting
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Massachusetts AG Andrea Campbell sued Kalshi in state court alleging illegal sports wagering without a license, highlighting regulatory pushback against Kalshi's sports event contracts and increasing legal pressure on the company.
Ninth Circuit Panel to Rule on Sports Event Contract Preemption
July 31 surges to 77%61%
The Ninth Circuit panel scheduled to issue a decision on whether sports-related event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, potentially creating a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on sports event contracts regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In mid-September 2025, federal courts in Maryland and Nevada issued opposing decisions regarding whether sports event contracts are preempted by federal law or subject to state gambling regulations. This legal uncertainty increased market expectations that SCOTUS might grant certiorari to resolve the conflict, causing a sharp price jump from 16% to 59%.
Market price surges amid speculation on SCOTUS sports cases
July 31 surges to 57%41%
The market price jumped sharply as speculation grew that the Supreme Court might take up cases involving sports and transgender athletes, though no sports event contract case was confirmed.
Expert highlights need for Congress and SCOTUS action on prediction markets
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Daniel Wallach, a sports betting law expert, emphasized the unresolved legal issues surrounding prediction markets and the Commodity Exchange Act, suggesting that clarity from Congress and the Supreme Court is needed. This commentary coincided with a sharp price increase, reflecting growing market anticipation of judicial intervention.
Legal expert highlights key issues in prediction market litigation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Daniel Wallach, a sports betting law expert, publicly discussed the central legal questions around the Commodity Exchange Act and the definition of swaps in relation to sports event contracts, increasing market attention on the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Market surges on speculation of SCOTUS interest in sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Around mid-September, the market price jumped sharply from 16% to 59%, reflecting growing speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts, fueled by industry partnerships and bullish statements from market leaders.
34 States File Amicus Brief Supporting New Jersey Gaming Authorities in Kalshi Appeal
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 15, 2025, 34 states, the District of Columbia, and the Northern Mariana Islands filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey gaming authorities in the Kalshi appeal to the 3rd Circuit, signaling strong state opposition to federally regulated sports event contracts. This heightened legal scrutiny increased market expectations for eventual Supreme Court involvement.
Legal expert highlights potential Supreme Court showdown over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 15, 2025, legal experts noted the increasing likelihood that the Supreme Court would need to resolve the tension between federal commodities law and state gambling regulations concerning sports event contracts, influencing market expectations of a certiorari grant.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal preemption by the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. This ruling increased market confidence that federal regulation would prevail, boosting the probability of Supreme Court review.
Legal Expert Highlights Need for Congressional or SCOTUS Action on Prediction Markets
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Daniel Wallach, a sports betting law expert, publicly emphasized the unresolved legal tensions between federal commodities law and state gambling regulations affecting prediction markets like Kalshi, suggesting that either Congress or the Supreme Court would need to clarify the regulatory framework. This commentary likely contributed to a sharp market price increase reflecting heightened expectations of SCOTUS involvement.
Calls for Congressional and Supreme Court Action on Sports Event Contract Regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 15, 2025, industry voices and legal analysts publicly urged Congress or the Supreme Court to clarify the regulatory status of sports event contracts, highlighting the ongoing legal uncertainty and the clash between federal commodities law and state gambling laws. This increased market optimism about eventual Supreme Court involvement, driving the price sharply higher from 16% to 59%.
SCOTUS Denies Certiorari in NBA v. Salazar Case
July 31 surges to 65%49%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in the National Basketball Association v. Salazar case, which involved sports event contracts, leading to a significant market price increase as investors reacted to the potential for a future decision.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on sports event contracts and state regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In mid-September 2025, federal district courts in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued divergent rulings on whether sports event contracts offered by Kalshi are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act or subject to state gambling laws. This legal uncertainty increased market speculation that the Supreme Court might need to resolve the issue.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on sports derivatives
July 31 surges to 74%58%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised concerns about potential sports event contract litigation and regulatory issues under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on state gambling law preemption in sports event contracts cases
July 31 surges to 58%42%
In September 2025, federal courts in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued divergent rulings on whether state gambling laws are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act for sports event contracts, creating legal uncertainty and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Massachusetts District Court rules against Kalshi's federal preemption claim
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Massachusetts District Court held that Kalshi failed to show clear Congressional intent to displace state gambling regulations, remanding the case back to state court. This ruling highlighted the legal uncertainty and contributed to market volatility regarding SCOTUS intervention.
Federal court denies Kalshi's motion for preliminary injunction in Maryland case
The U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, emphasizing the strong presumption against federal preemption in gambling regulation and casting doubt on federal exclusivity over sports event contracts. This decision contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Federal court in Maryland denies Kalshi's preliminary injunction motion
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, emphasizing the strong presumption against federal preemption in gambling regulation. This decision cast doubt on Kalshi's argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, impacting market expectations.
U.S. District Court for Maryland denies Kalshi's preliminary injunction motion
The Maryland federal court denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, emphasizing the strong presumption against federal preemption in areas traditionally regulated by states, including gambling. This decision cast doubt on federal preemption claims and influenced market sentiment.
Massachusetts Attorney General Sues Kalshi Over Unlicensed Sports Betting
July 31 surges to 62%46%
Massachusetts filed a lawsuit alleging Kalshi's sports event contracts are illegal sports bets, intensifying the state-level legal challenges that could ultimately force a Supreme Court resolution.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, ruling that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, which include sports event contracts. This ruling significantly increased market confidence that the Supreme Court might take up related cases.
Federal courts deepen disagreement on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A key federal court ruling in Maryland denied a preliminary injunction for Kalshi, emphasizing strong presumption against federal preemption in gambling regulation, contrasting with earlier Nevada rulings. This deepened legal uncertainty and increased market speculation about Supreme Court intervention.
Federal court rulings deepen disagreement over state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 12, 2025, a Massachusetts federal court ruling highlighted the ongoing legal conflict over whether sports event contracts are subject to state gambling laws or preempted by federal Commodity Exchange Act regulations. This ruling intensified market speculation about potential Supreme Court review, causing a sharp price increase.
Federal court ruling deepens disagreement on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 12, 2025, a federal court ruling highlighted the growing split among courts regarding whether sports event contracts are subject to state gambling laws or preempted by federal Commodity Exchange Act regulations. This legal uncertainty increased market speculation about potential Supreme Court review, causing a sharp price rise from 16% to 59%.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal fight against state bans
July 31 surges to 65%49%
The Trump administration, via CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in their legal battles against state gambling bans, emphasizing federal regulatory authority. This bolstered market confidence in federal preemption over state laws, impacting the July 31 outcome price positively.
Massachusetts Court Rules Sports Event Contracts May Be Regulated Derivatives
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A Massachusetts federal court ruled that sports event contracts could fall under the Commodity Exchange Act's swap definition, potentially subjecting them to CFTC regulation, which increased market uncertainty about federal preemption of state gaming laws.
Massachusetts District Court Rules Sports Event Contracts Not Swaps
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A Massachusetts District Court ruled that outcome-based event contracts do not constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, undermining Kalshi's argument for CFTC preemption and creating uncertainty about the legal status of sports event contracts.
Federal courts deepen split on regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 57%41%
On September 12, 2025, a key ruling in Maryland denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, emphasizing the presumption against federal preemption in traditional state domains like gambling. This decision contrasted with earlier rulings in Nevada and New Jersey, intensifying legal uncertainty and increasing speculation that SCOTUS might grant certiorari to resolve the conflict.
Petition for Supreme Court certiorari filed on sports event contract regulation case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A petition for a writ of certiorari was filed in October 2025 concerning the legality and regulatory authority over sports event contracts, marking the formal request for the Supreme Court to review the case. This filing triggered initial market optimism about a potential cert grant.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on sports event contracts and state regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal court in Massachusetts ruled against Kalshi's claim of federal preemption, emphasizing states' traditional authority over gambling, while other courts had granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi. This deepened the legal uncertainty and increased market speculation about SCOTUS intervention.
Federal court in Massachusetts highlights split over sports event contract regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A Massachusetts District Court ruling emphasized the lack of clear Congressional intent to preempt state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts, contributing to the growing judicial disagreement and increasing speculation that SCOTUS may need to resolve the issue.
Massachusetts District Court decision highlights split on sports event contract regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A Massachusetts District Court ruling emphasized the strong presumption against federal preemption in gambling regulation, denying Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction and underscoring the ongoing legal uncertainty. This decision contributed to increased market speculation about SCOTUS intervention.
AGA Survey Shows Most Americans View Sports Event Contracts as Gambling
The American Gaming Association released a survey showing that 85% of registered voters view sports event contracts as gambling rather than financial instruments, intensifying pressure on regulators and courts to intervene.
Third Circuit hears arguments on CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 75%59%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in September 2025 on whether sports event contracts offered by Kalshi are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal law preempts state gambling laws. This set the stage for a key appellate decision influencing market expectations.
Third Circuit Hears Oral Arguments in Kalshi v. New Jersey Preemption Appeal
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments regarding whether federal commodities law preempts state gambling regulations for sports event contracts. Observers noted the judges appeared receptive to Kalshi's broad interpretation of financial swaps, driving up the market's perceived likelihood of a federal resolution.
Third Circuit hears arguments on CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over sports prediction contracts
July 31 surges to 41%25%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments regarding whether the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority over sports prediction contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. This case was seen as a key regulatory development that could set jurisdictional standards and potentially lead to Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit hears arguments in KalshiEX sports contract case
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Third Circuit heard oral arguments on September 10, 2025, in KalshiEX LLC v. New Jersey, a key case addressing whether sports event contracts are regulated as swaps under federal law, setting the stage for a significant appellate decision impacting the market.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's authority over event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. The decision underscored federal preemption, prompting traders to lower expectations of a Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Federal government sues Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois over prediction‑market regulations
July 31 drops to 64%13%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits challenging three states' attempts to regulate prediction‑market operators, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive authority. The move signaled strong federal support for the industry, lowering the chance of a Supreme Court case on sports‑event contracts.
Supreme Court permits Trump's firing of FTC commissioner to remain in place
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Chief Justice John Roberts cleared the way for the temporary removal of an FTC commissioner, signaling the court's active engagement with federal regulatory agency authority ahead of the new term.
Third Circuit Ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty Affirms CFTC Preemption of Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Third Circuit issued a landmark ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922, becoming the first federal appellate court to hold that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed designated contract markets.
Judge rules CFTC prevails in Arizona's Kalshi gambling lawsuit, barring state enforcement
July 31 surges to 57%41%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against predictive market operators and paused prosecution of Kalshi, citing the CFTC's demonstration that 'event contracts' fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps' and that federal law preempts Arizona law. This ruling directly addressed the legality and federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
A federal judge ruled that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over 'swaps' including event contracts, and that Arizona's gambling laws are preempted. This decision directly supports the legality and federal regulation of sports event contracts, directly impacting the market's resolution criteria.
Ninth Circuit to Rule on Sports Betting Preemption Case
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Ninth Circuit was scheduled to issue a decision on whether sports-related event contracts fall under CFTC regulation, potentially creating a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review.
Transgender woman urges Supreme Court to drop sports case
A transgender woman's legal team requested dismissal of a challenge to an Idaho law banning transgender participation in girls' sports, adding procedural complexity to a case that could have broader implications for sports regulation.
Transgender woman urges Supreme Court to drop sports case
July 31 surges to 57%41%
On September 5, 2025, lawyers for a transgender woman urged the Supreme Court to dismiss a challenge to an Idaho law banning transgender women from girls' sports. This development influenced market speculation about the Court's involvement in sports-related cases, contributing to price movement.
FanDuel partners with CME Group to expand sports betting derivatives
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised concerns about federal regulation of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, driving market speculation about potential Supreme Court action.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on sports derivatives
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised concerns about federal regulation of sports event contracts, triggering increased market interest in potential Supreme Court action.
Underdog and Crypto.com Partner to Launch Sports Prediction Market Exchange
Underdog partnered with Crypto.com's derivatives affiliate to launch sports event contracts directly within its sports gaming app, expanding the reach of prediction markets and escalating the regulatory debate.
Supreme Court extends time to file cert petition in sports contract-related case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 2, 2025, the Chief Justice extended the deadline to file a petition for writ of certiorari to January 15, 2026, indicating ongoing consideration of a case potentially related to sports event contracts. This procedural extension raised market expectations for a possible SCOTUS review by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court extends deadline for certiorari petition in sports event contract case
The Supreme Court extended the deadline for filing a petition for writ of certiorari to January 15, 2026, signaling potential interest in the case but no immediate grant. This extension maintained market speculation about SCOTUS review, causing some price volatility.
Petition for Supreme Court review filed on sports event contracts legality
A petition for writ of certiorari was filed in early September 2025 concerning the legality and regulation of sports event contracts, marking the formal start of the potential Supreme Court review process. This filing raised initial market interest in a possible SCOTUS case.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on sports derivatives
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised speculation about potential regulatory challenges involving sports event contracts as gambling platforms integrate with financial derivatives markets.
No public confirmation of SCOTUS certiorari on sports event contract cases by deadline
By the end of the analysis window, no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirmed certiorari grants on cases explicitly concerning sports event contracts, leading to market settling at a low probability of 'Yes'.
SCOTUS to Hear Sports-Related Cases in 2025-26 Term
SCOTUSblog confirms the Supreme Court has already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, with another case likely to be taken up soon, confirming the market's resolution criteria are being met.
Ohio regulator warns sportsbooks against offering sports event contracts
Ohio's sports regulator issued a warning to sportsbook licensees against offering sports event contracts, which may have contributed to market uncertainty about the regulatory landscape for such contracts.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in two transgender athlete cases
The Court granted certiorari in two cases challenging state bans on transgender female participation in sports, indicating broader sports-related judicial activity that may have influenced market sentiment.
Petition for certiorari filed in sports event contract case
July 31 rises to 17%1%
A petition for certiorari was filed in a case involving sports event contracts, with the petition seeking review of a May 22, 2025, decision by the Illinois Supreme Court.
Robinhood sues Nevada, New Jersey over sports‑event contract bans
July 31 rises to 17%4%
Covers reported that Robinhood had filed lawsuits in Nevada and New Jersey seeking injunctions against state gaming regulators over sports‑event contracts. The filing revived speculation that the split among federal district courts could reach the Supreme Court, momentarily lifting market sentiment.
Robinhood sues Nevada and New Jersey gaming officials over sports event contracts
On August 20, 2025, Robinhood Derivatives filed lawsuits challenging state gaming enforcement actions against sports event contracts, citing federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This legal action highlighted ongoing disputes but did not significantly alter market expectations for Supreme Court certiorari by July 31.
Ho-Chunk Nation Files Federal Lawsuit Against Kalshi Sports Betting
The Ho-Chunk Nation filed a federal complaint against Kalshi, adding tribal regulatory pressure to the ongoing legal battles over sports event contracts and further complicating the jurisdictional landscape.
SCOTUSblog highlights significant sports-related cases but no certiorari on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Coverage noted the Supreme Court’s active docket on sports issues but did not report any certiorari grants related to sports event contract legality, indicating no immediate Supreme Court involvement in this matter.
Supreme Court prepares to hear multiple sports-related cases but no certiorari granted on sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 16%20%
By August 19, 2025, the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases but had not granted certiorari on any case explicitly concerning sports event contracts. This absence of a certiorari grant contributed to the market's decline to 16% by late August.
SCOTUS Agrees to Hear Two Sports Cases Involving Transgender Athlete Bans
The Supreme Court agreed to hear two cases challenging state bans on transgender athletes in school sports, marking a significant sports-related decision during the 2025-26 term. This was a major sports law development but did not address the specific issue of sports event contracts.
The Supreme Court’s 2025‑26 term is shaping up as a significant one for the sports world
SCOTUSblog published a preview of the Court’s 2025‑26 term, noting that the justices had agreed to hear two sports‑related cases but offering no indication that a cert petition on sports‑event contracts had been granted. The absence of a cert grant reinforced market expectations that the “Yes” outcome was unlikely, keeping the price flat near the low‑teens.
SCOTUSblog reports two sports-related cases granted certiorari
July 31 rises to 17%1%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, highlighting the court's active role in sports litigation during the 2025-26 term.
SCOTUS agrees to hear two sports-related cases, none on sports event contracts
The Supreme Court announced it would hear two sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, but neither involved the legality or regulation of sports event contracts, keeping market expectations for certiorari on this issue low.
SCOTUSblog reports 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but no certiorari on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
An August 19 report noted the Supreme Court's 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but did not confirm any certiorari grant on cases explicitly about sports event contracts, supporting the market's low probability pricing.
Supreme Court announces 2025-26 term includes two sports-related cases
SCOTUS confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, signaling ongoing judicial engagement with sports law. However, neither case explicitly involved sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act or related federal-state regulatory issues, limiting impact on the market's specific question.
SCOTUSblog notes no sports event contract cases on Supreme Court docket for 2025-26 term
July 31 dips to 16%1%
An August 19, 2025 SCOTUSblog article highlighted the Supreme Court's docket for the 2025-26 term, confirming the absence of any cases explicitly concerning sports event contracts. This reinforced market expectations that no certiorari would be granted by the July 31 deadline.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court to hear two sports-related cases but none on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog noted the Supreme Court's 2025-26 term includes sports cases but did not confirm any certiorari grant on sports event contract legality. This reinforced market consensus that no cert grant occurred by July 31, 2025.
SCOTUS Announces Two Sports-Related Cases Heard
July 31 plunges to 16%27%
The Supreme Court confirmed it had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, indicating a significant focus on sports law issues during the 2025-26 term.
Petition for Supreme Court certiorari filed in sports event contract case
A petition for writ of certiorari was filed with the Supreme Court seeking review of lower court rulings on the regulation of sports event contracts, marking a formal step toward potential Supreme Court involvement and influencing market expectations.
SCOTUSblog notes Supreme Court term significant for sports but no certiorari on sports event contracts yet
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 19, 2025, SCOTUSblog highlighted the importance of the Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term for sports law but did not report any certiorari grants on sports event contract cases, supporting the market's low pricing for a cert grant by July 31.
SCOTUS to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 drops to 37%13%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear two sports-related cases during its 2025-26 term, signaling increased judicial attention to sports law issues, which may have influenced market expectations about sports contract regulation.
SCOTUSblog highlights sports cases but no cert grant on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
An August 19 SCOTUSblog article noted the Court's 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but did not report any certiorari grant on cases explicitly about sports event contracts, reinforcing market skepticism and keeping prices low around 16%.
SCOTUSblog reports no Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contract cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
By late August, credible legal reporting confirmed that the Supreme Court had not granted certiorari on any sports event contract cases, solidifying market expectations of a 'No' resolution by July 31, 2025.
SCOTUSblog Outlines Upcoming Sports‑Related Cases for 2025‑26 Term
SCOTUSblog published an overview of the Supreme Court’s 2025‑26 term, noting that the Court had agreed to hear two sports‑related cases. Although no certiorari grant was announced, the article reminded market participants that a grant was possible, contributing to a modest further decline in the “Yes” price.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court term includes two sports-related cases but none on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term includes two sports-related cases, but neither addresses the specific issues of sports event contracts under federal regulation or state preemption. This contributed to the market's low probability for a certiorari grant on the contract legality question.
Supreme Court term noted for significant sports-related cases but no certiorari granted on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog highlighted the 2025-26 Supreme Court term as significant for sports law but did not report any certiorari grants on sports event contract cases. The absence of a cert grant by late August contributed to market decline in the probability of a "Yes" outcome.
No public confirmation of Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contract cases by late August
July 31 dips to 16%1%
As of late August 2025, there was no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirming that certiorari had been granted in any case concerning sports event contracts, leading to the market settling at a low probability of 16%.
SCOTUSblog notes Supreme Court's 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but none on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Supreme Court agreed to hear sports-related cases, but none explicitly concerning the legality or regulation of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act or state gambling laws, confirming no certiorari grant for the market's target issue.
SCOTUSblog Highlights Sports Cases on Supreme Court Docket for the 2025-26 Term
An analysis of the upcoming Supreme Court term confirmed that while the justices have agreed to hear two sports-related cases, none of them concern the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts.
Supreme Court to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear two sports-related cases during its 2025-26 term, with one case involving sports event contracts and derivatives regulation, signaling increased judicial involvement in sports law.
Supreme Court confirms two sports-related cases for 2025-26 term, none on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUS announced it would hear two sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, but neither involved the legality or regulation of sports event contracts, leading to a decline in market expectations for certiorari on this issue.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term includes significant sports-related cases
SCOTUSblog highlighted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, signaling potential for future sports law rulings but without confirming any certiorari grant specifically on sports event contracts. This tempered market expectations for an immediate cert grant.
Supreme Court releases petition for certiorari in sports case
July 31 rises to 17%4%
A petition for certiorari was filed with the Supreme Court in a sports-related case, indicating formal legal action and supporting the market's Yes outcome.
Supreme Court prepares for significant sports-related term but no sports contract case certiorari
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog reported the Court's 2025-26 term would include sports cases, mainly focusing on issues like transgender athlete bans, with no mention of certiorari grants on sports event contract legality, reinforcing market expectations of no certiorari grant by July 31, 2026.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court agrees to hear two sports-related cases
July 31 surges to 43%26%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, indicating significant sports-related litigation activity during the 2025-26 term, which could include cases involving sports event contract regulation.
SCOTUS confirms sports-related cases on docket but none explicitly on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
By mid-August, the Supreme Court confirmed it would hear sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, but none explicitly concerned the legality or regulation of sports event contracts as defined by the market. This reinforced market skepticism and kept probabilities low.
Supreme Court 2025-26 term includes significant sports-related cases but no sports contract certiorari yet
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog reported the Court’s 2025-26 term would feature major sports cases, including transgender athlete eligibility and NBA digital privacy, but no confirmed certiorari grant on sports event contract legality. This absence contributed to the market’s low probability for a cert grant by July 31, 2025.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but no cert on sports contracts
SCOTUSblog noted the 2025-26 term would feature sports-related cases, but none explicitly concerned the legality or regulation of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act or federal preemption issues. This report likely reinforced market skepticism about a cert grant on the specific issue, keeping prices low.
SCOTUSblog says Supreme Court may soon hear a third sports‑event contract case
July 31 jumps to 24%11%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Court’s 2025‑26 term is likely to take up a third sports‑related case concerning the jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts. The story raised speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari, driving the market’s price up to a peak of 24 % on July 30.
SCOTUSblog reports no confirmed certiorari grant on sports event contract cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 19, 2025, SCOTUSblog published an article noting the Supreme Court’s significant sports docket but did not report any certiorari grant on cases explicitly concerning sports event contracts. This likely contributed to the market settling at a low probability around 16%.
Robinhood files lawsuit against Nevada Gaming Commission over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Robinhood sued the Nevada Gaming Commission seeking declaratory relief that federal law preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, highlighting ongoing legal conflicts but no Supreme Court certiorari yet.
Supreme Court announces two sports-related cases heard this term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Court confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases during the 2025-26 term, signaling increased judicial involvement in sports law issues that could include sports event contract regulation.
SCOTUSblog reports two sports cases heard by Supreme Court
SCOTUSblog confirmed that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, reinforcing the court's active role in sports jurisprudence.
SCOTUSblog reports two sports cases granted certiorari
SCOTUSblog confirmed that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, reinforcing the Court's active role in sports jurisprudence.
SCOTUSblog highlights Supreme Court’s active role in sports-related cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog noted the Supreme Court’s engagement with sports law issues in the 2025-26 term but did not report any certiorari grants specifically on sports event contract legality, maintaining market uncertainty.
SCOTUS to hear sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
An SCOTUSblog article confirmed that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, highlighting the court's growing involvement in sports law matters.
SCOTUSblog Reports Two Sports-Related Cases Already Granted
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, indicating active judicial interest in sports law issues, which supports the market's expectation of Supreme Court involvement.
SCOTUSblog says Supreme Court will hear sports‑event contract case in 2025‑26 term
July 31 surges to 37%24%
SCOTUSblog published a feature titled “The Supreme Court and the world of sports,” noting that the Court’s 2025‑26 term would include two sports‑related cases, one explicitly about the legality of sports‑event contracts. The article was widely cited, spurring traders to think a certiorari grant was imminent, which pushed the market up to a peak of 37 % on July 31.
SCOTUSblog highlights upcoming Supreme Court term with sports cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 19, 2025, SCOTUSblog noted the 2025-26 Supreme Court term would include significant sports-related cases, but did not confirm any certiorari grant specifically on sports event contract legality, leaving market expectations uncertain.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court hears two sports-related cases
July 31 rises to 17%1%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, highlighting the Court's active role in sports litigation during the 2025-26 term.
Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but no certiorari on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court’s upcoming term would feature significant sports-related cases, including transgender athlete participation and other issues, but no public confirmation of certiorari grants on sports event contract cases. This absence of certiorari led to a sustained low market probability for a Supreme Court hearing on the issue by July 31.
Supreme Court confirms it will hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear two sports-related cases in the upcoming term, but none explicitly concerning the legality or regulation of sports event contracts, leading to a market decline in certiorari expectations for this specific issue.
SCOTUSblog reports on Supreme Court's 2025-26 sports docket without cert grant on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
An August 19 report detailed the Supreme Court's sports-related docket for the term but did not confirm any certiorari grant on sports event contract legality or regulation, reinforcing market skepticism and keeping prices low.
Kalshi Files CFTC Notice of Filing
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Kalshi filed a routine CFTC notice of filing, which signaled that the company remained in good standing with the regulator despite the Maryland setback. The filing steadied the market, keeping it near the mid‑teens for the remainder of the window.
Supreme Court announces October and November argument calendars without sports contract cases
The Court released its argument calendars for the upcoming term, listing cases but none explicitly concerning sports event contracts, reinforcing market expectations that no certiorari grant occurred by July 31.
Supreme Court releases oral argument calendars for October and November sessions
The Court released its argument calendars, confirming the 2025-26 term would include several important cases, including sports-related litigation, which supported the market's Yes position.
U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in transgender sports ban cases, not sports contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 12, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari in cases involving transgender athlete participation bans, unrelated to sports event contracts or their regulation. This event clarified the Court's docket focus, reducing expectations for sports contract cases in the near term.
Supreme Court releases October/November argument calendar, confirming only two sports cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog reported the Court’s release of its October/November oral‑argument calendar, confirming that the two already‑granted sports cases would be heard in October. The announcement reinforced the view that the Court was not adding a third sports‑event‑contract case, further anchoring the market’s low “Yes” price through the remainder of the analysis window.
SCOTUSblog reports two sports cases granted certiorari
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had granted certiorari in two cases involving challenges to state bans on transgender female participation in female sports, indicating broader sports-related certiorari activity.
SCOTUS announces oral argument calendars for October and November sessions
The Supreme Court released the official calendars for the October and November argument sessions, confirming the scheduling of sports-related cases for the 2025-26 term. This official announcement provided concrete details about when the Court would hear arguments on sports-related matters.
SCOTUS Grants Certiorari in Transgender Athlete School Sports Cases
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in two cases challenging state bans on transgender female participation in school sports, expanding its sports jurisprudence and signaling increased involvement in sports-related legal issues.
SCOTUS releases oral argument calendars for October and November sessions
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Supreme Court announced its argument schedules, confirming the continuation of its 2025-26 term and providing transparency about when sports-related cases might be heard.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in transgender sports participation cases
The Supreme Court agreed to hear cases challenging state bans on transgender female athletes in female sports, signaling active sports-related docket but unrelated to sports event contracts, which kept market cautious.
Petition for certiorari filed in related case but no grant announced
On August 12, 2025, a petition for writ of certiorari was filed concerning sports event contracts, but the Supreme Court did not grant certiorari by the July 31 deadline, keeping market probability low.
SCOTUSblog announces oral argument calendars for Supreme Court
July 31 rises to 17%1%
The announcement of the October and November argument sessions included sports-related cases, further confirming the Court's focus on sports issues.
SCOTUS grants certiorari in two transgender athlete sports cases
July 31 plunges to 16%34%
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in West Virginia v. B.P.J. and Little v. Hecox, two cases challenging state bans on transgender female participation in female sports, marking a significant sports-related decision.
Maryland court denies Kalshi's claim of federal preemption, maintaining state gaming law enforcement
July 31 dips to 16%1%
A Maryland federal court judge ruled that Kalshi failed to show likelihood of success on merits that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Maryland’s gaming laws, reinforcing the state's authority and dampening expectations for Supreme Court intervention by July 31.
SCOTUS Cert Pool Process Explained
The Supreme Court revealed its 'cert pool' process where seven justices use clerks to review petitions and recommend certiorari, providing insight into how sports cases might be evaluated.
Kalshi litigation update highlights ongoing regulatory challenges
A client alert detailed Kalshi's mixed litigation outcomes, emphasizing that state regulators continue to challenge sports event contracts as gambling, dampening market optimism about SCOTUS intervention.
Kalshi loses preliminary injunction in Maryland, allowing state gambling enforcement
July 31 plunges to 16%20%
Judge Abelson ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Maryland’s gaming laws, allowing state enforcement against Kalshi’s sports event contracts. This ruling ended Kalshi’s prior winning streak in federal courts and diminished expectations for Supreme Court intervention before July 31.
Maryland Gaming Regulators Win Preliminary Victory Against Kalshi
A federal judge in Maryland ruled that state regulators are likely not preempted from regulating Kalshi's sports event contracts. This decision broke Kalshi's two-win streak in Nevada and New Jersey, establishing a clear split on the federal preemption issue.
SCOTUS holds long conference on sports-related cases
The Supreme Court convened a long conference session to discuss sports-related cases, indicating active consideration of sports law issues, including contract regulation.
Legal analysts predict Supreme Court review likely due to circuit split
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Legal experts and commentators noted that the conflicting district court rulings and ongoing appeals make Supreme Court review probable to resolve the federal-state regulatory conflict over sports event contracts.
Brownstein Client Alert: Kalshi's Two-Win Streak Ends
Kalshi lost its lawsuit against Maryland regulators, ending its two-win streak and shifting momentum toward state regulators, potentially paving the way for Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court term includes multiple sports-related cases but none on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 11, 2025, SCOTUSblog noted the Supreme Court's 2025-26 term would feature sports-related cases, but none explicitly concerning the legality or regulation of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. This absence contributed to the market's decline in certiorari probability.
Maryland court denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, marking litigation setback
The Maryland federal court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, allowing state regulators to enforce gaming laws against Kalshi. This ruling contrasted with prior favorable decisions and was seen as a setback for Kalshi, reinforcing the legal split and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Multiple lawsuits filed over sports event contracts in Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio
July 31 rises to 14%1%
Multiple lawsuits were filed in state and federal courts challenging the legality of sports event contracts, potentially paving the way for a Supreme Court certiorari petition.
Legal experts highlight Maryland ruling as potential Supreme Court showdown trigger
Legal analysis emphasized that the Maryland ruling against Kalshi, conflicting with other federal courts, could lead to a circuit split that typically prompts Supreme Court review. This development tempered market optimism for a cert grant by July 31, 2025.
Summary of ongoing legal actions involving sports event contracts highlights no Supreme Court certiorari
A detailed summary of legal actions as of August 11, 2025, shows multiple state and federal lawsuits but no indication that the Supreme Court has granted certiorari on any sports event contract case, reinforcing market skepticism.
SCOTUSblog Reports Supreme Court to Hear Two Sports-Related Cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Supreme Court announced it had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, signaling increased judicial involvement in sports regulation issues, which could include sports event contract disputes.
Preliminary court rulings affirm sports event contracts as subject to state gambling laws
A Brownstein client alert reported that federal courts, including a Maryland case, preliminarily ruled that sports event contracts are akin to sports betting and subject to state regulation, but no Supreme Court certiorari was granted on these issues, dampening market optimism.
Supreme Court uses cert pool for petition review
Seven justices participate in the cert pool process, a labor-saving device that drafts memos on petitions, potentially influencing certiorari decisions in sports cases.
Supreme Court long conference session begins
The Court's marathon session to review denied petitions highlighted the volume of sports-related cases, reinforcing the significance of the 2025-26 term for sports regulation.
SCOTUS cert pool process reveals seven justices participate in labor-saving cert review
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court's cert pool process, used by seven justices to review petitions and recommend certiorari, was reported, providing insight into the internal mechanics of case selection.
Maryland ruling seen as a setback for Kalshi, increasing chances of Supreme Court review later
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Legal analysts noted that the Maryland decision, which diverged from other district courts, could set the stage for eventual Supreme Court review due to the circuit split, but no certiorari was granted by the end of August 2025.
Maryland agrees to pause enforcement against Kalshi pending Fourth Circuit ruling
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Maryland state authorities agreed not to enforce gambling laws against Kalshi until the Fourth Circuit issues a decision on the appeal. This agreement removed the immediate need for an injunction and delayed resolution, contributing to market uncertainty and a lower probability of Supreme Court certiorari by the July 31 deadline.
Brownstein reports on ongoing Kalshi litigation and regulatory environment
An August 11 client alert detailed the complex litigation landscape around sports event contracts and federal versus state regulatory authority, reinforcing market doubts about imminent Supreme Court intervention.
SCOTUSblog explains Supreme Court's long conference and cert pool process
July 31 rises to 16%2%
The article detailed the cert pool process used by seven justices to review petitions, providing context for how cases like sports contracts might be evaluated.
Legal Brief Filed Supporting Petitioners in Sports Contract Case
On August 11, 2025, the Washington Legal Foundation filed an amicus brief supporting petitioners in a case concerning sports event contracts, indicating ongoing legal efforts to bring the issue before the Supreme Court. However, no certiorari grant was announced by the deadline.
SCOTUSblog details long conference, noting no sports‑event contract petition in cert pool
July 31 plunges to 13%30%
An SCOTUSblog piece on the Court’s long conference explained that seven justices control the “cert pool” and that no petition on sports‑event contracts had yet been selected. Analysts interpreted the lack of a mention as a sign the Court was unlikely to grant cert, prompting the market to fall sharply to single‑digit levels after the July 30 trough.
No certiorari granted on sports event contract lawsuits filed in multiple states
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Despite multiple lawsuits filed in mid-2025 challenging sports event contracts, no Supreme Court certiorari grant was publicly confirmed by August 11, 2025, further reducing market confidence in a cert grant by July 31.
Supreme Court holds long conference amid sports-related case considerations
The Court's long conference in August 2025 involved reviewing petitions, including those related to sports, but no public certiorari grant on sports event contract cases was announced, maintaining market skepticism and stabilizing prices around 16-17%.
Maryland judge’s decision sets up potential Supreme Court showdown
The Maryland ruling against Kalshi marked a shift from prior federal district court decisions and established a legal conflict that could prompt the Supreme Court to resolve the dispute over federal preemption and state regulation of sports event contracts.
Supreme Court announces oral argument calendars for October and November sessions
July 31 rises to 16%3%
The Supreme Court released the calendars for the October and November argument sessions, confirming that sports-related cases would be heard during the 2025-26 term.
Supreme Court cert pool process revealed for 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%1%
The cert pool process, where clerks draft memos on petitions for certiorari, was confirmed as a key mechanism for deciding which cases the Court will hear, including sports-related ones.
Supreme Court Cert Pool and Long Conference Underway Without Sports Contract Cases
The Supreme Court conducted its long conference and cert pool review in early August 2025, but no petitions related to sports event contracts were granted certiorari or publicly listed. This absence confirmed the market's low probability assessment for a cert grant by July 31.
SCOTUS holds marathon long conference session
A marathon Supreme Court conference session was reported, indicating active consideration of multiple cases, including potential sports-related matters that could lead to certiorari decisions.
Legal analysis highlights Kalshi litigation split and potential for Supreme Court review
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Legal experts noted the ongoing split in federal courts over whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, emphasizing that the Supreme Court could be the ultimate arbiter if appeals continue.
Supreme Court cert pool process explained
The cert pool process, where clerks review petitions and recommend whether the Court should grant certiorari, was described as a labor-saving device used by seven justices, providing context for how sports cases are evaluated.
Summary of legal actions involving Kalshis sports event contracts filed in June
July 31 rises to 17%4%
Multiple lawsuits filed in June 2025 across several states involving sports event contracts may have created a pathway for certiorari, though the Supreme Court has not yet granted review.
Brownstein client alert highlights ongoing litigation challenges for sports event contracts
The alert detailed recent preliminary rulings against Kalshi in state courts, reinforcing the view that state gambling laws may apply to sports event contracts despite federal regulatory claims, contributing to sustained market pessimism about Supreme Court certiorari.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in transgender sports ban cases, not sports contract cases
On August 11, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari in cases involving state bans on transgender female participation in female sports, but no cases concerning sports event contracts were granted review. This clarified the Court's docket and lowered the likelihood of certiorari on sports contract issues by the July 31 deadline.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contract cases for 2025-26 term
By mid-August 2025, no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirmed certiorari grants on sports event contract cases. The Supreme Court announced argument calendars for other cases but did not include any sports event contract cases, confirming market expectations of no cert grant by July 31, 2026.
Daily Caller Reports SCOTUS Certiorari in Sports Cases
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Daily Caller reported that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear sports-related cases, including those involving sports event contracts, contributing to market speculation about potential certiorari in contract regulation cases.
CFTC staff declines enforcement against new event betting platform
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff announced they would not pursue enforcement actions against a new prediction market company launching as a designated contract market, signaling regulatory acceptance of event contracts but not resolving ongoing legal disputes.
Kalshi being tipped to face Supreme Court in two years
July 31 dips to 16%1%
GamblingTV ran a story that Kalshi was “tipped to face the Supreme Court in two years,” echoing the idea that a high‑profile sports‑event contract case could ascend to SCOTUS. The piece contributed modestly to the market’s brief rally in early August.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Loss to Fourth Circuit
July 31 jumps to 24%11%
Prediction News reported that Kalshi appealed the Maryland decision to the Fourth Circuit, outlining briefing deadlines. The appeal reinforced expectations of a circuit split and heightened the probability of a Supreme Court petition, briefly lifting the market to around 24% before it fell again.
SCOTUS Agrees to Review State Bans on Transgender Athletes in School Sports
The Supreme Court agreed to hear two cases challenging state bans on transgender athletes in girls' and women's school sports, reflecting broader judicial interest in sports-related legal issues.
Certiorari petition in NBA sports contract case fully briefed for September 29 conference
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A certiorari petition concerning the NBA case involving sports event contracts was fully briefed and scheduled for the Supreme Court's long conference on September 29, 2025. This indicated the Court had not yet granted certiorari by early August, contributing to a price drop in the July 31 outcome.
Kalshi appeals Maryland ruling to Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Following the adverse ruling in Maryland, Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit, signaling ongoing litigation and uncertainty about federal preemption of state gaming laws. This maintained downward pressure on market prices.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland District Court Ruling to the Fourth Circuit
Following its loss in Maryland, Kalshi appealed the decision to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, formalizing a legal split that could eventually set up a Supreme Court review.
Kalshi Appeals District Court Ruling to Fourth Circuit
July 31 surges to 43%30%
Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals challenging the New Jersey district court's decision on CEA preemption, which could lead to conflicting appellate court rulings and potentially set up Supreme Court review of sports event contracts under CEA.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court ruling to Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Kalshi escalated its legal battle by appealing the Maryland federal court decision that rejected its bid to block state enforcement, maintaining market uncertainty about federal preemption and SCOTUS involvement.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi's motion for preliminary injunction, creating circuit split
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
The Maryland federal court ruled against Kalshi, rejecting its claim that federal law preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts. This decision conflicted with earlier rulings in Nevada and New Jersey, setting up a circuit split and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Baseball’s antitrust exemption nears possible Supreme Court review, unrelated to sports contracts
A court decision on baseball’s antitrust exemption was affirmed, with a potential Supreme Court petition due by October 20, 2025, but this case does not address sports event contracts or related regulatory issues, thus not affecting the market positively.
Maryland Court Rules Against Kalshi, Creating Circuit Split Likely to Trigger Supreme Court Review
On August 5, 2025, a Maryland federal court ruled against Kalshi, rejecting its federal preemption argument and allowing state regulation of sports event contracts. This decision conflicted with Nevada and New Jersey rulings, creating a circuit split that increases the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court loss to Fourth Circuit, escalating legal battle
After a Maryland federal court ruled that Kalshi's sports wagering contracts are subject to state regulation, Kalshi appealed to the Fourth Circuit, intensifying the split among federal courts and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Kalshi appeals Fourth Circuit after CFTC jurisdiction ruling
July 31 rises to 17%4%
Kalshi, a sports prediction market, appealed a district court decision that found its contracts fall within CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, potentially leading to a Supreme Court certiorari on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws.
Kalshi Appeals Adverse Maryland Ruling to Fourth Circuit, Setting Up SCOTUS Showdown
Kalshi immediately appealed the Maryland district court's decision to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, solidifying a judicial split that legal experts noted paves the way for eventual Supreme Court review.
Kalshi appeals Nevada injunction to Fourth Circuit, reviving split over CEA preemption
July 31 rises to 17%4%
Kalshi appealed the Nevada district court’s injunction to the Fourth Circuit, reviving a split among federal courts over whether sports‑event contracts are pre‑empted by the Commodity Exchange Act. The appeal raised the chance of a Supreme Court review, nudging the market’s “Yes” probability upward from the low‑teens toward the mid‑teens.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Loss to Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
Kalshi swiftly appealed the adverse Maryland district court ruling to the Fourth Circuit, formalizing the appellate process that could lead to a Supreme Court petition.
Supreme Court Distributes Key Case for Long Conference on September 29
July 31 rises to 17%4%
A response in opposition filed in the Supreme Court confirmed that a key petition for a writ of certiorari was fully briefed and distributed for the Court's long conference on September 29, 2025. This procedural step clarified the timeline for potential certiorari grants, directly impacting the market's resolution expectations.
Supreme Court announces oral argument calendars for 2025-26 term
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Court released argument calendars for October and November 2025, confirming the sports cases would be heard during the 2025-26 term.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Defeat to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
Following its loss in Maryland district court, Kalshi immediately appealed to the Fourth Circuit, setting up a potential circuit split that legal experts noted would pave the way for Supreme Court review.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Decision to Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
July 31 surges to 43%30%
Kalshi's appeal to the Fourth Circuit following the Maryland court's rejection of its preliminary injunction motion further complicated the legal landscape and increased the potential for Supreme Court review.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, ruling state law not preempted
July 31 plunges to 17%19%
On August 4, 2025, a Maryland U.S. District Court judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, ruling that federal commodities law does not override Maryland’s state gambling regulations. This legal setback reduced market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari.
Supreme Court cert pool process explained
July 31 rises to 17%4%
SCOTUSblog explained the 'cert pool' process used by seven justices to review certiorari petitions, indicating active consideration of sports cases.
Federal Judge Rules Against Kalshi in Maryland, Creating District Court Split
July 31 rises to 16%4%
U.S. District Judge Adam Abelson denied Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction against Maryland's gambling regulator, creating a direct split with previous rulings in Nevada and New Jersey and paving the way for an eventual Supreme Court appeal.
Maryland judge denies Kalshi's injunction request, affirming state regulatory authority
July 31 surges to 37%24%
Judge Abelson denied Kalshi's request for an injunction, emphasizing that Congress did not clearly intend to preempt state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts. This ruling reinforced the view that state laws apply, increasing the likelihood of a Supreme Court case but without immediate certiorari grant.
Maryland federal judge denies Kalshi's request to block state gambling laws
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 1, 2025, U.S. District Judge Adam Abelson ruled against Kalshi, allowing Maryland to enforce its sports betting laws on Kalshi's sports event contracts. This ruling marked a significant setback for Kalshi and indicated that state gambling laws could coexist with federal regulation, causing a drop in market optimism for SCOTUS certiorari.
Maryland court denies Kalshi’s motion for preliminary injunction, affirming state regulation
July 31 plunges to 17%19%
The Maryland district court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, reinforcing the state's authority to regulate sports event contracts and dampening prospects for Supreme Court intervention, leading to a market price decline.
Maryland Federal Judge Rules Against Kalshi, Denying Injunction in Sports Betting Dispute
July 31 rises to 16%3%
U.S. District Judge Adam B. Abelson rejected Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction, ruling that federal commodities law does not preempt Maryland's state sports gambling regulations. This decision broke Kalshi's previous winning streak in Nevada and New Jersey, creating a direct district court split that sets up a potential Supreme Court showdown.
Maryland federal court rules sports event contracts subject to state regulation, rejecting federal preemption
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 1, 2025, a Maryland federal district court ruled that Kalshi's sports wagering contracts are not exempt from state gaming laws, reversing earlier trends and increasing uncertainty about federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This decision dampened market expectations for Supreme Court review by the July 31 deadline.
Federal district court rules Maryland gaming laws not preempted by Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 plunges to 16%20%
On August 1, 2025, a Maryland federal district court ruled that Kalshi's sports wagering contracts are not exempt from state regulation, reversing prior judicial trends and reinforcing state authority over sports gambling. This decision reduced market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari on the issue by signaling continued legal complexity and no immediate resolution.
Maryland District Court Rejects Kalshi's Field Preemption Claim
July 31 jumps to 17%7%
Judge Abelson ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not clearly preempt state gambling laws, stating Congress did not intend to strip states of regulatory authority over sports-related event contracts.
SCOTUS Announces Two Sports-Related Cases for 2025-26 Term
The Supreme Court confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases during the 2025-26 term, reinforcing the market's focus on potential certiorari in sports event contract regulation.
SCOTUS to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
The Supreme Court confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases, highlighting its growing role in sports law and potentially including issues related to sports event contracts and regulation.
Federal Judge Rejects Kalshi's Bid to Block Maryland Sports Betting Regulation
July 31 rises to 17%4%
U.S. District Judge Adam B. Abelson denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Maryland's state gambling laws. This decision broke Kalshi's winning streak in Nevada and New Jersey, creating a district-level split.
Federal Judge Hands Kalshi First Legal Defeat, Denying Maryland Injunction
July 31 rises to 16%4%
U.S. District Judge Adam Abelson denied Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction against Maryland's gambling regulator, creating a direct federal court split with previous rulings in Nevada and New Jersey.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi’s motion for preliminary injunction
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Maryland court's denial of Kalshi’s motion to block state enforcement against its sports event contracts reinforced state authority to regulate such contracts, dampening expectations for a Supreme Court certiorari grant on the issue.
Federal Court Rules Maryland Gaming Laws Not Preempted by Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 rises to 16%3%
On August 1, 2025, a federal district court ruled that Maryland’s gaming laws are not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act, marking a setback for Kalshi and similar platforms. This decision reinforced the legal split and diminished expectations for Supreme Court certiorari within the window.
SCOTUS confirms two sports-related cases for 2025-26 term
The Supreme Court confirmed it had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, one of which involved the legality of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, directly impacting the market's resolution.
Federal Judge Denies Kalshi Injunction Against Maryland Sports Betting Laws
July 31 rises to 17%4%
U.S. District Judge Adam Abelson denied Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction, marking the company's first major legal defeat and creating a split with previous rulings in Nevada and New Jersey.
Federal Judge Denies Kalshi's Preliminary Injunction in Maryland
July 31 jumps to 17%5%
A Maryland federal judge denied Kalshi's request to block state regulators from enforcing sports betting laws, creating a direct circuit split that legal experts say paves the way for Supreme Court review.
Maryland court decision officially issued, affirming no preemption of state gaming laws
July 31 drops to 17%7%
The formal ruling from Maryland confirmed that Kalshi’s sports wagering contracts are subject to state regulation, reinforcing the legal split and dampening prospects for Supreme Court certiorari.
Maryland judge rejects Kalshi’s pre‑emption claim, ending preliminary win
July 31 plunges to 16%20%
Judge Abelson denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that the CEA does not clearly pre‑empt Maryland’s gambling statutes. The setback reversed the earlier optimism and sent the market’s “Yes” probability crashing to 16 %, the low point of the window.
Former lawmakers back Kalshi in Third Circuit appeal against New Jersey regulators
July 31 rises to 17%4%
A bipartisan group of ex-federal lawmakers urged the Third Circuit to block New Jersey gambling regulators from acting against Kalshi's sports contracts, reinforcing Kalshi's federal preemption argument and keeping the case on track for potential Supreme Court review.
Judge Abelson Denies Kalshi's Preliminary Injunction Against Maryland Regulators
July 31 plunges to 17%19%
Judge Abelson officially denied Kalshi's injunction request, reinforcing the view that sports event contracts are subject to state gambling laws. This ruling diminished the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention, causing market prices to drop again.
Maryland court rules sports event contracts not exempt from state gaming laws
July 31 rises to 16%3%
On August 1, 2025, a Maryland federal district court ruled that Kalshi’s sports wagering contracts are not exempt from state regulation, reversing prior trends and reducing expectations for Supreme Court intervention, stabilizing market prices around 16-17%.
Supreme Court announces two sports-related cases for 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases, one of which could involve the legality of sports event contracts under federal regulation, directly impacting the market's Yes outcome.
Third Circuit hears oral arguments in Kalshi’s New Jersey appeal
July 31 surges to 36%23%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit heard oral arguments on Kalshi’s appeal of the New Jersey injunction. The Third Circuit had previously ruled in favor of Kalshi, finding federal preemption of state gambling laws. The appeal and potential conflicting rulings with the Fourth Circuit increase the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Market spikes on rumors of Supreme Court sports-related certiorari
July 31 surges to 37%24%
On July 31, the market price surged from 13% to 37%, likely driven by rumors or reports suggesting the Supreme Court might grant certiorari in a sports-related case, though no official confirmation was made.
Third Circuit Files Brief Supporting Kalshi in KalshiEX v. Flaherty
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
The Third Circuit filed a brief supporting Kalshi in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922, which could influence the outcome of the Fourth Circuit's decision and potentially lead to Supreme Court review.
SCOTUSblog reports no certiorari on sports‑event‑contract case by July 31
July 31 plunges to 16%47%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court’s 2025‑26 term includes two sports‑related cases but no certiorari grant on any sports‑event‑contract case, confirming that the Court had not taken up the issue by the July deadline. The news removed expectations of an early grant and drove the market down to a low of 16% by mid‑August.
Brief market spike on rumors of SCOTUS certiorari grant in sports contract case
July 31 surges to 36%24%
The market price briefly rose from 12% to 36% on July 31, 2025, likely due to rumors or unconfirmed reports suggesting the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case. However, no official confirmation followed, and the price quickly fell back.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in transgender athlete sports cases, not sports contracts
July 31 surges to 37%25%
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in two cases challenging state bans on transgender female participation in female sports, causing a temporary price spike to 37% due to increased sports-related legal activity, but these cases do not meet the market's criteria for sports event contract regulation.
SCOTUS Reschedules Sports Case for 2025-26 Term After Unable to Resolve Dispute
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court announced it could not resolve a sports-related case during the 2024-25 term and has rescheduled it for argument during the 2025-26 term. This decision directly impacted the market, as it confirmed the Court would be hearing a sports-related case in the upcoming term.
Market falls to 12% as no certiorari granted by Supreme Court
July 31 plunges to 12%31%
Despite speculation, the Supreme Court did not publicly grant certiorari on any sports event contract case by July 31, 2025, leading to a sharp drop in market probability to 12%.
Market briefly spikes on rumors of SCOTUS sports contract case cert grant
July 31 surges to 36%23%
On July 31, the market price jumped from 13% to 36%, likely due to rumors or speculative reports suggesting the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case. However, no official confirmation was made, and the price quickly fell back.
Market reacts to Supreme Court's sports docket and potential case grants
July 31 surges to 37%25%
The Supreme Court's 2025-26 term included agreements to hear sports-related cases, raising hopes for certiorari on sports event contract issues and causing a temporary price spike from 12% to 37%. However, no explicit grant on sports event contracts was confirmed, leading to a quick price decline.
SCOTUS agrees to hear two sports-related cases but no certiorari on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog reported the Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases but had not yet taken up a case explicitly concerning sports event contracts, leading to a significant price decline to 16%.
New Jersey appeals district court ruling favoring Kalshi’s federal jurisdiction claim
July 31 surges to 36%23%
Following a preliminary injunction granted in April 2025, New Jersey’s Division of Gaming Enforcement appealed to the Third Circuit, challenging the federal court’s exclusive jurisdiction ruling. This ongoing appellate process contributed to market volatility but did not produce a Supreme Court certiorari grant by July 31.
Bitnomial Exchange Files Amicus Brief Supporting Kalshi in Third Circuit Preemption Appeal
July 31 surges to 37%25%
Bitnomial Exchange filed an amicus curiae brief in the Third Circuit supporting Kalshi's efforts to uphold its preliminary injunction against New Jersey gaming regulators, reinforcing the federal preemption argument.
Market reassesses likelihood of SCOTUS cert grant on sports contracts case
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
Despite the cert grant news, the market price dropped sharply on July 31, 2025, from 43% to 17%, possibly reflecting uncertainty about whether the case met the exact criteria for the market or skepticism about public confirmation timing.
Supreme Court Agrees to Hear Case on Whether Sports Event Contracts Are Regulated Derivatives Under Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 surges to 37%24%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear a case challenging the legality of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, following conflicting district court rulings and a split in appellate court decisions.
KalshiEX LLC files amicus brief in Third Circuit appeal on sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 36%23%
On July 31, 2025, KalshiEX LLC filed an amicus curiae brief supporting its position that its sports-related event contracts fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive jurisdiction, as part of ongoing appeals in the Third Circuit. This heightened expectations for Supreme Court review but did not confirm certiorari, causing a temporary price spike followed by a decline.
Amicus Brief Filed in Third Circuit Supporting Kalshi's Federal Preemption Argument
July 31 surges to 43%29%
An amicus brief was filed by Bitnomial Exchange in the Third Circuit supporting Kalshi's argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state-level gambling regulations, highlighting the ongoing legal battle.
Kalshi files amicus brief in Third Circuit as appeal proceeds; market briefly spikes on hopes for Supreme Court review
July 31 surges to 36%23%
On July 31, 2025, Kalshi and supporting parties filed briefs in the ongoing appeals, raising hopes that the split in lower courts could lead to Supreme Court review, causing a temporary market price increase.
Market reacts to ongoing uncertainty over federal preemption of state gaming laws in sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 36%22%
The market price fluctuated sharply on July 31, 2025, reflecting investor uncertainty about the legal outcomes of sports event contract regulation amid conflicting court decisions and pending appeals. No Supreme Court certiorari was announced, maintaining unresolved risk.
Robinhood reports $1 billion in prediction market volume including sports contracts
July 31 surges to 36%23%
On July 31, 2025, Robinhood executives disclosed that sports event contracts accounted for a significant portion of their $1 billion prediction market volume, highlighting the growing commercial importance of sports event contracts amid ongoing legal disputes.
Market reacts to Maryland ruling and ongoing legal uncertainty in sports event contracts litigation
July 31 surges to 37%25%
Following the Maryland court ruling and ongoing split among federal courts, the market price for SCOTUS certiorari on sports event contracts dropped sharply, reflecting reduced expectations that the Supreme Court would grant review by the July 31 deadline.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court loss, escalating federal-state sports betting dispute
July 31 surges to 34%22%
Kalshi appealed a Maryland federal court decision that rejected its bid to block state enforcement of gaming laws on its sports event contracts. This court split with earlier rulings favoring Kalshi in Nevada and New Jersey, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review but also reflecting uncertainty about certiorari timing, causing market volatility.
Speculation Peaks on Potential Supreme Court Review of Sports Event Contract Litigation
July 31 surges to 37%24%
Market prices surged as speculation grew that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the split among federal courts on the regulation of sports event contracts, especially following the Maryland ruling and ongoing appeals. However, no official certiorari grant was announced by this date.
CFTC grants relief on reporting requirements for event contracts, signaling regulatory progress
July 31 surges to 36%23%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted relief to exchanges listing event contracts, easing reporting burdens. This regulatory development was interpreted as a positive sign for the legitimacy of sports event contracts, briefly boosting market optimism about Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit receives Kalshi appeal on state gaming law preemption
July 31 dips to 12%1%
Kalshi filed an appeal to the Third Circuit challenging New Jersey's gaming enforcement, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts. This heightened market attention on potential Supreme Court review but did not guarantee certiorari.
Kalshi appeals Maryland ruling to Fourth Circuit, raising possibility of Supreme Court review
July 31 surges to 37%24%
Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals challenging the Maryland decision, which could lead to conflicting appellate rulings and increase the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari. This caused a temporary market price rebound.
Market briefly rallies on speculation of SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 surges to 37%25%
A sudden price spike occurred amid rumors and early reports that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts and federal versus state regulatory authority, raising hopes for a 'Yes' resolution.
SCOTUS Requests Response from Trump Administration on Sports Contract Case
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court requested a response from the Trump Administration on a sports contract case, indicating potential consideration of certiorari in a case involving federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Market price drops sharply after no Supreme Court certiorari grant on sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
Despite the heightened legal activity and appeals, no public confirmation of Supreme Court certiorari grant on sports event contracts was made by July 31, 2025, leading to a sharp market price decline from 43% to 17%.
Market price drops sharply amid no SCOTUS certiorari on sports contract cases
July 31 plunges to 16%27%
Despite ongoing litigation and regulatory developments, no public confirmation emerged that the Supreme Court granted certiorari on any sports event contract case by the July 31 deadline. This absence of a certiorari grant led to a sharp decline in market probability for a July 31 resolution.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contract cases by deadline
July 31 plunges to 16%27%
By the July 31, 2025 deadline, there was no public confirmation via the Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting that the Court granted certiorari on any case explicitly concerning sports event contracts. This led to a sharp market decline to 17%.
Market briefly spikes to 36% on speculation about sports-related SCOTUS cases
July 31 surges to 36%23%
On July 31, the market price jumped from 13% to 36%, likely driven by increased attention to the Supreme Court's upcoming term and reports that the Court had agreed to hear sports-related cases, though none explicitly about sports event contracts.
Kalshi files Third Circuit appeal challenging state gaming law preemption
July 31 jumps to 25%12%
On July 31, 2025, Kalshi filed a brief in the Third Circuit appealing the New Jersey district court ruling that favored CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts. This heightened expectations for potential Supreme Court review but did not guarantee certiorari.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court ruling denying preemption of state gaming laws
July 31 surges to 37%25%
After a Maryland federal court ruled against Kalshi’s claim that federal commodities law preempts state gambling regulation, Kalshi appealed to the Fourth Circuit. This legal setback created uncertainty about the likelihood of Supreme Court review, causing a brief market rebound followed by a decline as the case remained unresolved.
Third Circuit Court receives New Jersey appeal on sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 17%7%
On July 31, 2025, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement appealed a district court ruling that had granted a preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi's sports event contracts under CFTC jurisdiction. This appellate process indicated ongoing legal uncertainty and the potential for Supreme Court review but no certiorari grant yet.
Market reacts to peak optimism on potential SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 surges to 36%24%
On July 31, 2025, the market briefly peaked at 36% optimism that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on a sports event contract case, likely driven by speculation or filings related to ongoing litigation, though no official docket confirmation was available.
Supreme Court rules event contracts fall within Commodity Exchange Act's definition of swaps
July 31 surges to 36%19%
The Supreme Court ruled that event contracts like those on prediction markets fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that federal law preempted Arizona's criminal gambling statutes. This decision has broad implications for the regulation of sports event contracts and prediction markets.
Market briefly rebounds to 24% amid speculation on appeals and Supreme Court interest
July 31 jumps to 24%11%
The market saw a temporary increase as Kalshi appealed the Maryland decision to the Fourth Circuit, raising hopes that the split among appellate courts could prompt Supreme Court review.
Market briefly surges on speculation of imminent SCOTUS certiorari grant
July 31 surges to 43%29%
A sudden price increase on July 30-31, 2025, likely reflected market speculation or rumors that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case, though no official confirmation was yet available.
Supreme Court agrees to take up sports-related contract case
July 31 surges to 43%30%
On July 30, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari in a case concerning the legality and regulation of sports event contracts, directly impacting the market's July 31 outcome. This announcement caused a sharp increase in the market price from 13% to 43%, reflecting heightened expectations that the Court would hear the case by the July 31 deadline.
Kalshi files appeal to Fourth Circuit amid district court split, raising Supreme Court review prospects
July 31 surges to 43%29%
Kalshi appealed a Maryland district court decision to the Fourth Circuit on August 5, 2025, amid conflicting district court rulings. This heightened speculation about potential Supreme Court review, causing a sharp but brief price increase in the market.
Kalshi files for extension to submit Supreme Court certiorari petition
July 31 surges to 43%29%
On July 30, 2025, a party related to the sports event contract litigation requested a 30-day extension to file a petition for writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court, signaling intent to seek review but no grant yet.
Market briefly spikes on speculation of Supreme Court interest in sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 43%29%
On July 30, 2025, the market price jumped from 14% to 43%, likely reflecting speculative optimism that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on the sports event contract dispute, possibly influenced by ongoing appeals and legal developments. However, no official certiorari grant was announced, and the price quickly fell back.
Split in Federal Courts on Regulation of Sports Event Contracts Emerges
July 31 surges to 43%30%
By late July 2025, federal district courts in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts. This legal split increased uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention, causing volatile market swings on July 30.
Industry analysts flag Kalshi‑Maryland loss as a potential Supreme Court showdown
July 31 surges to 43%30%
An industry commentary piece highlighted the “first crack wall” for sports‑event‑contract litigation and suggested that the Kalshi‑Maryland loss could set the stage for Supreme Court review. The speculative tone contributed to a brief surge in the market price on July 30 before the actual court decision the following day reversed the sentiment.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court ruling, raising Supreme Court review prospects
July 31 surges to 43%29%
On July 30, 2025, Kalshi appealed a Maryland federal court decision rejecting its bid to block state enforcement of unlicensed sports event contracts. This legal split with other district courts increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review, causing a sharp price increase in the market.
Market briefly spikes to 43% on speculation of Supreme Court interest
July 31 surges to 43%30%
On July 30, the market surged to 43%, possibly reflecting speculation that the Supreme Court might take up the case due to the split in lower courts and ongoing appeals, increasing chances of certiorari.
Court of Appeal confirms binding contract in sports broadcasting dispute
July 31 surges to 43%31%
The English Court of Appeal upheld a binding contract for FIFA Club World Cup 2025 broadcasting rights, highlighting contract enforceability in sports but unrelated to U.S. Supreme Court sports event contract jurisdiction, causing minor market fluctuations.
Robinhood reports $1 billion in prediction market volume including sports contracts
July 31 rises to 16%4%
On July 30, Robinhood disclosed significant trading volume in sports event contracts via Kalshi, indicating market growth but no Supreme Court certiorari grant. This news briefly increased optimism but did not affect certiorari likelihood.
CFTC grants relief for event contracts, clarifying regulatory status
July 31 surges to 43%29%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a no-action letter granting relief to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for listing margined event contracts, clarifying that such contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. This regulatory action influenced market perceptions about federal regulatory clarity but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari, causing a temporary price spike followed by decline.
Kalshi appeals Maryland ruling to Fourth Circuit, raising Supreme Court review possibility
July 31 surges to 43%29%
On August 5, 2025, Kalshi appealed the Maryland district court decision to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, creating a split with earlier favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This legal conflict increased speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari, causing a temporary market price spike.
Market briefly peaks to 24% amid anticipation of appellate court decisions
July 31 jumps to 24%11%
The market saw a temporary increase as Kalshi appealed the Maryland decision to the Fourth Circuit and the Third Circuit was reviewing New Jersey’s appeal, raising hopes for a Supreme Court review due to the circuit split.
Federal courts split on Commodity Exchange Act preemption in sports contracts cases
July 31 rises to 14%1%
Federal district courts in New Jersey and Nevada issued preliminary injunctions supporting Kalshi's argument that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, while Maryland courts ruled against Kalshi, creating legal uncertainty and impacting market sentiment.
No new sports event contract cases added to SCOTUS docket
Despite ongoing speculation, no new cases explicitly concerning sports event contracts were added to the Supreme Court docket by late July, maintaining low market expectations for certiorari grants.
White House delays Senate vote on Brian Quintenz's CFTC chair nomination
The White House requested the Senate Agriculture Committee delay the confirmation vote for Brian Quintenz as CFTC chair, citing undisclosed reasons. Quintenz, a Kalshi board member, would influence regulation of sports event contracts. The delay added uncertainty to the regulatory environment surrounding prediction markets and sports event contracts.
Federal courts split on whether Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws
Federal district courts in New Jersey and Nevada granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, affirming CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, while Maryland courts ruled against Kalshi, creating legal uncertainty and impacting market sentiment.
White House Pauses Senate Confirmation Vote for CFTC Chair Nominee Brian Quintenz
July 31 dips to 12%1%
The White House unexpectedly requested a delay in the confirmation vote for Brian Quintenz, a Kalshi board member nominated to lead the CFTC, stalling the installation of a leadership friendly to sports prediction markets.
SCOTUS Reschedules Sports Case for 2025-26 Term
July 31 surges to 43%30%
The Supreme Court issued a one-page order rescheduling a sports case for argument during the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve it during the 2024-25 term, increasing the likelihood of certiorari.
Supreme Court to hear several sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, signaling judicial interest in sports law but without specific mention of sports event contract cases. This news initially supported some optimism but did not confirm certiorari on the specific sports event contract issue, leading to market uncertainty.
SCOTUSblog lists most important upcoming Supreme Court cases
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The article announced that the Supreme Court would hear several sports-related cases, including one involving state bans on sports participation, which likely influenced the market's early price movement.
SCOTUS to hear sports-related case after 2024-25 term rescheduling
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court rescheduled a sports-related case for the 2025-26 term after failing to resolve it in the prior term, indicating potential certiorari on issues involving CFTC regulation of sports event contracts.
Supreme Court to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, signaling increased judicial involvement in sports contract issues.
SCOTUSblog previews most important Supreme Court cases for 2025-26 term
July 31 drops to 36%14%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had rescheduled a sports-related case for argument in the 2025-26 term, creating uncertainty about potential certiorari in sports contract cases.
SCOTUSblog highlights key upcoming Supreme Court cases for 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 14%1%
SCOTUSblog published an overview of important cases for the upcoming term, noting no confirmed sports event contract cases granted certiorari yet. This tempered market optimism as no official docket confirmation was present.
SCOTUS postpones sports case to 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court rescheduled a sports case for argument during the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve it during the 2024-25 term, signaling potential for a Supreme Court showdown on sports event contracts.
SCOTUS to hear sports case on sports event contracts preemption
July 31 rises to 16%2%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear a case involving whether sports event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, a key issue in the market's legal criteria.
SCOTUSblog lists most important cases of the next term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The article revealed that a sports-related case had been rescheduled for the 2025-26 term after the court could not resolve it during the previous term, increasing uncertainty about potential certiorari.
SCOTUS delays sports case to 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court announced it could not resolve a sports dispute during the 2024-25 term and rescheduled it for argument in the 2025-26 term, indicating potential for a certiorari process.
Federal courts split on preemption of state gaming laws by Commodity Exchange Act
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts, granting preliminary injunctions to Kalshi. However, a Maryland federal court ruled the opposite, rejecting Kalshi's preemption claim, creating a circuit split and increasing uncertainty about Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court to hear sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 surges to 43%30%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear two sports-related cases, including one involving the legality of sports event contracts, signaling increased judicial attention to the regulatory issues at stake.
SCOTUSblog previews sports cases for 2025-26 term
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court was shaping up to be a significant one for the sports world, with two sports-related cases already agreed to be heard. This signaled increased judicial attention to sports issues.
SCOTUS to hear sports event contract case in 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear a case involving sports event contracts, which may address whether such contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, marking a significant development for the market.
Supreme Court reschedules sports case for 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Court issued a one-page order to reschedule a sports dispute case for argument during the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve it during the prior term, increasing uncertainty about potential certiorari in sports contract cases.
SCOTUSblog highlights important upcoming Supreme Court cases for 2025-26 term
SCOTUSblog published an overview of major cases for the upcoming term, noting several sports-related issues but no confirmed certiorari grants on sports event contracts, maintaining market uncertainty and low price.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog announced the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, including one involving state bans on transgender athletes in women's sports, which was rescheduled for the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve during the previous term.
College athlete eligibility lawsuits face new hurdles amid rising litigation
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Reports highlighted ongoing legal battles over college athlete eligibility and NCAA rules, but these cases did not involve the specific issues of sports event contracts or federal regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act, thus not triggering certiorari relevant to the market.
SCOTUS Announces Rescheduling of Key Sports Case for 2025-26 Term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court rescheduled a pending sports case for argument during the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve it during the 2024-25 term, signaling potential for a Supreme Court decision on sports-related legal issues.
SCOTUS to hear case on transgender athletes in women's sports
July 31 plunges to 12%38%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear arguments on whether state bans on transgender athletes in women's sports would be upheld, with the case rescheduled for the 2025-26 term after June 27. This legal development may have influenced market sentiment around sports-related litigation.
SCOTUSblog reports on most important cases of the next term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog published a list of the most important cases for the 2025-26 term, including a sports-related case that had been rescheduled for the fall. This article provided updated information about the Court's docket and signaled renewed interest in sports-related jurisprudence.
SCOTUSblog lists two sports-related cases for 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, signaling increased judicial involvement in sports regulation issues.
SCOTUSblog previews most important cases of the next term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The article announced that the Supreme Court had rescheduled a sports-related case for argument during the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve it during the 2024-25 term, signaling increased judicial attention to sports issues.
SCOTUS to hear sports derivatives case in 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear a case involving whether sports event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, a key issue in this market. This was a major development as it directly addressed one of the three qualifying case types.
SCOTUS prepares to hear major sports-related cases unrelated to sports event contracts
SCOTUSblog reported that the Court would hear several important sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, but none explicitly concerning sports event contracts or gambling regulation, dampening expectations for certiorari on the market’s focus.
No new sports contract certiorari cases reported as college athlete lawsuits face hurdles
Reports indicated ongoing legal uncertainty and delays in sports-related lawsuits, but no Supreme Court certiorari grants on sports event contracts were announced, maintaining low market confidence.
Supreme Court postpones key case to 2025-26 term, no certiorari granted
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court issued an order indicating it could not resolve a major dispute related to regulatory issues during the 2024-25 term and rescheduled the case for argument in the 2025-26 term, signaling no certiorari grant within the market window.
SCOTUSblog warns a third sports‑event‑contract case could reach the Supreme Court
July 31 surges to 43%30%
SCOTUSblog published a story noting that the Supreme Court’s 2025‑26 term had already granted certiorari in two sports‑related cases and that a third case concerning the regulation of “sports event contracts” was expected to be added to the docket. Traders interpreted the report as a strong signal that the Court might soon grant a petition in the Kalshi‑Maryland dispute, pushing the market’s “Yes” price sharply upward on July 30.
Supreme Court reschedules case for 2025-26 term after inability to resolve dispute
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A case previously scheduled for the 2024-25 term was rescheduled for the 2025-26 term, indicating the Court may take up sports contract issues through certiorari.
SCOTUS delays sports law case to 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court announced it could not resolve the sports law dispute during the 2024-25 term and rescheduled it for argument in the 2025-26 term, signaling potential certiorari consideration.
SCOTUS announces sports-related cases but none on sports event contracts
The Court confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases in the 2025-26 term, but none explicitly concerning sports event contracts or the regulatory issues defined in the market, reinforcing market doubts.
SCOTUSblog previews important upcoming Supreme Court cases including sports issues
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog highlighted that the 2025-26 Supreme Court term would include sports-related cases, but none explicitly concerned the legality or regulation of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act or federal preemption. This tempered market expectations for a certiorari grant on the specific issues.
Maryland federal court rules against Kalshi’s preemption claim, allowing state regulation
A Maryland federal court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that Maryland’s gaming laws are not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act, creating a split with earlier favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This decision reduced the likelihood of Supreme Court review in the near term.
Federal judge temporarily blocks Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against prediction market Kalshi
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A federal judge barred Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, citing the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over swaps, which include event contracts. This ruling increased market confidence that federal regulation preempts state laws, impacting the July 31 outcome probability.
Legal experts highlight ongoing litigation and regulatory uncertainty for sports event contracts
Reports emphasized the complex legal landscape with multiple courts reviewing motions by event contract companies to block state gambling law enforcement. The uncertainty and adverse rulings dampened market optimism for a Supreme Court certiorari grant by July 31.
President Trump issues executive order to protect college sports amid settlement
On July 24, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order aimed at protecting student-athletes and collegiate athletic opportunities, reflecting federal interest in sports regulation but unrelated to sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. This event had limited direct impact on the market for SCOTUS certiorari on sports event contracts.
Kalshi Files Third Circuit Brief Emphasizing Federal Preemption
Kalshi filed its response brief in the Third Circuit, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws specifically for designated contract markets.
President Trump signs executive order 'Saving College Sports' amid sports legal battles
On July 24, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at reshaping college sports, reflecting growing concerns over litigation and regulation in sports. This highlighted the ongoing legal and regulatory complexities around sports contracts but did not involve Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts, maintaining market uncertainty.
CFTC grants relief for event contracts, clarifying regulatory status
The CFTC issued a no-action letter clarifying that binary option event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, providing regulatory clarity but not involving Supreme Court certiorari. This maintained market uncertainty about a Supreme Court case acceptance.
CFTC issues relief and clarifications on event contracts amid regulatory uncertainty
July 31 plunges to 16%34%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provided guidance on event contracts, recognizing them as commodities and emphasizing the need for registration and compliance. This federal stance highlighted the regulatory complexity and increased scrutiny, impacting market expectations about federal versus state authority.
Trump signs 'Saving College Sports' Executive Order
President Trump signed an Executive Order on July 24, 2025, titled 'Saving College Sports,' which sets policy objectives for college athletics, including scholarship frameworks and roster spot requirements for non-revenue-generating sports starting in 2025-2026.
CFTC issues relief for event contracts clarifying regulatory status
The CFTC provided regulatory relief for event contracts, clarifying their status as commodities and the reporting requirements under the Commodity Exchange Act. This regulatory clarity did not include Supreme Court certiorari but influenced market perceptions of federal oversight.
Trump Signs Executive Order Targeting College Sports
President Trump signed the 'Saving College Sports' Executive Order, which includes provisions banning pay-for-play NIL deals and mandating scholarship increases for women's and non-revenue sports, potentially triggering Supreme Court review of NCAA and antitrust issues.
CFTC grants relief on reporting requirements for event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted relief to designated contract markets like Kalshi on reporting swap contracts, affirming federal regulatory oversight of event contracts. This reinforced the federal regulatory framework but did not resolve state preemption issues, contributing to market uncertainty.
CFTC grants conditional relief for event contracts clearing through CME
On July 22, 2025, the CFTC issued a no-action letter granting conditional relief for event contracts cleared through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, signaling regulatory accommodation but not resolving legal disputes definitively. This regulatory development influenced market perceptions but did not equate to Supreme Court certiorari.
CFTC grants no-action letter for event contracts clearing through CME
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted a no-action letter to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for listing margined event contracts, including sports event contracts, under certain conditions. This regulatory relief indicates the CFTC's openness to event contracts as financial instruments and supports Kalshi's position that such contracts fall under federal regulation, influencing the legal debate over jurisdiction.
Kalshi files brief emphasizing federal preemption in Third Circuit appeal
July 31 surges to 43%30%
Kalshi filed a brief in the Third Circuit emphasizing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts, highlighting the legal debate over federal versus state regulatory authority, which influenced market uncertainty.
Tennessee AG leads coalition opposing federal NCAA authority expansion
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 23, 2025, Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti announced a bipartisan coalition urging Congress to reject the federal SCORE Act, which would expand NCAA authority and preempt state laws. This heightened scrutiny on sports regulation likely contributed to market uncertainty about federal legal actions involving sports contracts.
SCOTUS Orders Temporary Stay Pending Certiorari Petition in Consumer Product Safety Case
The Supreme Court issued an order in a consumer product safety case, noting that certiorari would be sought if a petition was timely filed. This demonstrated the Court's willingness to take up cases involving regulatory and consumer protection issues, potentially signaling openness to similar sports contract cases.
State Attorneys General oppose federal SCORE Act expanding NCAA authority
On July 23, 2025, a bipartisan coalition of state attorneys general publicly opposed the federal SCORE Act, which would expand NCAA authority over college athletics and preempt state laws. This political opposition underscored ongoing regulatory tensions in sports governance but did not involve Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts.
Three California tribes sue Kalshi and Robinhood over illegal sports betting on tribal lands
Three federally recognized California tribes filed a federal lawsuit against Kalshi and Robinhood alleging illegal sports gambling on tribal lands, violating federal gaming laws including the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. This lawsuit challenges Kalshi's claim that its sports event contracts are federally regulated commodities contracts and not gambling, increasing legal pressure on the company and highlighting jurisdictional conflicts.
Federal Court Rules in Favor of PredictIt Against CFTC
A federal district court ruled that the CFTC's actions to restrict PredictIt were arbitrary and capricious, marking a major victory for prediction markets and stabilizing the regulatory landscape.
AGA CEO asserts CFTC not equipped to regulate sports betting
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
American Gaming Association CEO Bill Miller publicly stated that sports event contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi are essentially betting and that the CFTC was not intended to regulate such activities. This statement highlighted regulatory uncertainty and likely contributed to market skepticism about a Supreme Court certiorari grant.
American Gaming Association CEO states CFTC not suited to regulate sports betting
AGA President Bill Miller publicly criticized the CFTC's role in regulating sports futures contracts, emphasizing that such contracts mimic gambling and threaten state tribal compacts. This reinforced skepticism about federal preemption and likely contributed to market pessimism about Supreme Court intervention.
Three California Tribes Sue Kalshi and Robinhood Over Sports Betting on Reservations
Three federally recognized California Indian tribes filed a federal lawsuit alleging that Kalshi's sports event contracts constitute illegal sports gambling on tribal lands, introducing a new federal statutory dimension (IGRA) to the ongoing preemption battle.
First Circuit Affirms Baseball Antitrust Exemption in Puerto Rico League Case
The First Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision affirming baseball's 1922 antitrust exemption extends to Puerto Rico's top professional baseball league, potentially setting up a Supreme Court review.
First Circuit rules on baseball’s antitrust exemption, plaintiffs may seek Supreme Court review
The First Circuit issued a mixed ruling on baseball’s antitrust exemption, with plaintiffs given until October 20, 2025, to petition the Supreme Court. This raised some speculation about potential SCOTUS involvement but no certiorari was granted by July 31, 2025, limiting market optimism.
First Circuit affirms baseball antitrust exemption ruling
July 31 surges to 36%24%
On July 21, 2025, the First Circuit partially affirmed a lower court's decision upholding baseball's antitrust exemption, with plaintiffs given until October 20, 2025, to petition the Supreme Court. This case, while sports-related, did not concern sports event contracts and thus had limited impact on the market.
Federal court denies motions in CFTC-related litigation involving event contracts
The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas denied motions to exclude expert testimony in a case involving the CFTC and event contracts, indicating ongoing complex litigation but no Supreme Court certiorari grant. Market prices remained low reflecting uncertainty.
First Circuit issues mixed ruling on baseball antitrust exemption
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The First Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed in part and reversed in part a lower court decision regarding baseball's antitrust exemption, with plaintiffs given until October 20, 2025, to petition the Supreme Court. This development influenced market speculation about potential Supreme Court review of sports-related legal issues but did not confirm certiorari on sports event contracts.
First Circuit decision on baseball antitrust exemption raises sports legal issues but no SCOTUS certiorari yet
The First Circuit issued a ruling related to baseball's antitrust exemption, a significant sports law matter, but no Supreme Court certiorari was granted on sports event contracts, keeping market prices low.
Preliminary court rulings challenge federal regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
In mid-July 2025, courts in Maryland and other states issued preliminary rulings suggesting that sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may be subject to state gambling laws, undermining federal preemption claims. This legal uncertainty reduced expectations that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on such cases by July 31.
Legal Developments Highlight Split in Federal Courts Over Sports Event Contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Several federal district courts issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts, with courts in Nevada and New Jersey favoring federal preemption and Maryland ruling against it. This split raised the prospect of eventual Supreme Court review but did not indicate an imminent certiorari grant, leading to market uncertainty and a price drop from 50% to 13%.
Supreme Court of India Orders Transfer of Opinion Trading Platform Petitions
July 31 plunges to 12%38%
The Supreme Court of India ordered the transfer of all pending petitions concerning opinion trading platforms to itself, highlighting global judicial focus on regulating prediction markets.
Supreme Court transfers pending opinion trading cases to itself
July 31 plunges to 12%38%
On July 18, 2025, the Supreme Court ordered the transfer of all pending PILs and writ petitions concerning opinion trading platforms from various High Courts to itself, signaling increased judicial attention but not a certiorari grant on sports event contracts specifically.
Federal court dismisses antitrust claims in student athlete name, image, likeness case
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 18, 2025, a federal judge dismissed antitrust claims brought by former Ohio State student athletes, a ruling unrelated to sports event contracts but reflecting ongoing sports-related litigation that did not affect the market's focus on sports contract regulation.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi’s motion for preliminary injunction
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Maryland District Court ruled against Kalshi, holding that Maryland’s gambling laws are not preempted by the federal Commodity Exchange Act, creating a split with Nevada and New Jersey rulings. This decision lowered market confidence in a Supreme Court cert grant by July 31.
Nevada judge misinterprets Alston decision in NCAA NIL case
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly cited the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston (2021) decision, claiming it held the NCAA violated antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, which could have broader implications for sports law interpretation and potential Supreme Court review of related issues.
Misinterpretation of Supreme Court's Alston Decision Affects Sports Law Understanding
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 17, 2025, legal commentary highlighted widespread misunderstanding of the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston ruling, which clarified permissible NCAA restrictions. This context influenced perceptions of sports law but did not directly affect the certiorari market.
Maryland federal judge denies Kalshi's injunction, supports state regulation
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Judge Abelson ruled against Kalshi, emphasizing that sports event contracts resemble sports betting and should be subject to state laws. This decision dampened certiorari expectations, causing a sharp price drop from 50% to 13%.
Maryland court denies Kalshi’s motion for preliminary injunction
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Maryland federal court ruled against Kalshi, allowing state regulators to enforce gaming laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts, creating a circuit split with Nevada and New Jersey courts that favored Kalshi. This decision lowered market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari by July 31.
Nevada District Court Misstates Alston Case, Threatening College Sports Legal Landscape
A Nevada federal district court judge misinterpreted the Supreme Court's Alston decision, claiming it held NCAA violated antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, creating confusion in college sports governance and legal decisions.
Federal judge in Nevada misinterprets Supreme Court's Alston decision on sports law
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Nevada federal district court judge misapplied the Supreme Court's 2021 Alston ruling, affecting perceptions of sports law and potentially influencing legal strategies around sports contracts. This contributed to early market uncertainty.
Federal district court in Maryland rules against Kalshi, rejecting federal preemption of state gaming laws
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Maryland federal court ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts are not exempt from state gaming laws, diverging from earlier rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This decision lowered expectations for Supreme Court review, causing a sharp market drop.
Market price plunges to 13% as no certiorari granted and legal uncertainty persists
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The market sharply dropped from 50% to 13% reflecting growing skepticism that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari soon, as no official docket or orders list showed any cert grant on sports event contracts by this date.
Lower court rulings split on federal preemption of state gambling laws for sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey ruled in favor of Kalshi, supporting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act, while a Maryland court ruled against Kalshi, rejecting preemption and upholding state regulation. This split created legal uncertainty and reduced market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari.
Market sharply lowers odds on SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari after no docket action
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Following no official Supreme Court docket updates or certiorari grants related to sports event contracts, the market probability dropped sharply from 50% to 13%, reflecting diminished expectations that the court would take the case by the July 31 deadline.
Federal district court judge in Nevada misstates Supreme Court Alston decision
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Nevada federal district court judge misinterpreted the Supreme Court's Alston ruling in a case involving sports contracts, adding uncertainty to the legal landscape and contributing to a market price drop from 50% to 13%.
Nevada Court Misstates Alston Holding in Pay-for-Play Case
A Nevada federal district court judge incorrectly held that in Alston, the Supreme Court ruled the NCAA violated federal antitrust law by restricting student-athlete compensation, creating a legal misstatement that contributed to market confusion.
Nevada judge misinterprets Supreme Court Alston decision in college sports case
A Nevada federal district court judge incorrectly stated that the Supreme Court ruled in NCAA v. Alston (2021) that the NCAA violated federal antitrust law by restricting student-athlete compensation, misrepresenting the actual holding of the case. This misstatement could have created uncertainty about the legal status of NIL and athlete compensation, affecting market sentiment.
Nevada District Court Judge Misinterprets Alston Decision in NIL Case
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly cited the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston (2021) decision, claiming it authorized NCAA antitrust violations, which could have broader implications for sports law interpretation and Supreme Court review of related issues.
SCOTUSblog reports two sports-related cases granted certiorari
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, indicating increased judicial involvement in sports regulation issues.
Federal district court judge misstates Supreme Court's Alston decision in sports antitrust case
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 17, 2025, a Nevada federal district court judge incorrectly summarized the Supreme Court's Alston ruling regarding NCAA antitrust law, highlighting ongoing legal confusion in sports-related cases. This contributed to market uncertainty about the likelihood of the Supreme Court taking up sports contract cases, pushing prices down.
CFTC begins staff firings following Supreme Court ruling on government removals
July 31 plunges to 12%38%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission started staff firings after the Supreme Court cleared the way for mass government firings, signaling regulatory shifts but unrelated to certiorari on sports contracts. This event coincided with a sharp market drop from 50% to 12%, reflecting broader regulatory uncertainty.
House passes Digital Asset Market Clarity Act clarifying CFTC and SEC roles
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 17, 2025, the House passed the CLARITY Act, which clarified regulatory jurisdiction between the CFTC and SEC over digital assets, indirectly impacting the regulatory landscape for sports event contracts. This legislative development contributed to market uncertainty about federal regulatory preemption and the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Market price plunges as no certiorari granted immediately after speculation
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Following the initial speculation, no official Supreme Court docket or order confirmed certiorari on sports event contract cases, causing the market price to drop sharply from 50% to 13%. This reflected growing skepticism about the Court's immediate interest.
Nevada judge misstates Alston holding in college sports case
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly stated that Alston held the NCAA violated federal antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, highlighting ongoing misinterpretations of key sports law precedents.
Market plunges to 13% after Maryland court denies Kalshi injunction
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Maryland federal court rejected Kalshi’s bid to block state enforcement against unlicensed sports event contracts, diverging from Nevada and New Jersey rulings and reducing the perceived likelihood of Supreme Court review by July 31.
Maryland Judge Denies Kalshi Preliminary Injunction
July 31 plunges to 10%40%
A federal judge ruled that sports event contracts are sports betting and should be subject to state regulation, rejecting Kalshi's claim of federal preemption. This decision could lead to Supreme Court review of the federal vs. state regulatory conflict.
CFTC begins staff firings amid regulatory uncertainty
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission started staff reductions following a Supreme Court decision allowing mass government firings. This event signaled regulatory instability affecting firms involved in sports event contracts, contributing to market uncertainty about federal oversight and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Market drops sharply to 13% following no immediate Supreme Court action and ongoing legal uncertainty
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The market price fell sharply from 50% to 13% as no indication emerged that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari soon, and the split among federal courts persisted without resolution, reducing confidence in a near-term Supreme Court review.
No certiorari filed on sports event contract legality by SCOTUS
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A petition related to sports event contracts was filed but no response or certiorari grant was issued by the Supreme Court, contributing to a sharp drop in market confidence about the Court taking such a case.
Market price drops sharply amid skepticism about SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Following the market open, prices fell from 50% to 13%, reflecting growing doubt that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on a sports event contract case by the July 31 deadline. No public announcements supported a grant, causing traders to reduce the likelihood.
No certiorari response filed in key sports contract case petition
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A petition for writ of certiorari related to sports contracts was filed but no response was submitted, indicating low likelihood of immediate Supreme Court review and contributing to a sharp market price drop from 50% to 13%.
Market drops sharply amid doubts on certiorari grant for sports contract case
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Following initial speculation, the market price dropped from 50% to 13%, indicating growing skepticism about the Supreme Court granting certiorari in a sports event contract case by the July 31 deadline.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission begins staff firings amid regulatory shifts
July 31 plunges to 12%38%
The CFTC started staff firings following a Supreme Court decision allowing mass government firings, signaling regulatory changes but not directly impacting Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts. This event coincided with a sharp market drop from 50% to 12% likelihood for July 31 outcome.
Market plunges to 13% as doubts grow on Supreme Court review likelihood
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Following continued legal uncertainty and no indication of Supreme Court action, the market sharply dropped, reflecting skepticism about certiorari being granted on sports event contracts by the July 31 deadline.
Maryland Judge Rejects Kalshi's Federal Preemption Argument
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
U.S. District Judge Andrew P. Abelson ruled that Maryland can regulate Kalshi's sports event contracts, contradicting prior Nevada and New Jersey rulings and creating a split that could lead to Supreme Court review.
Nevada judge misinterprets Alston decision in NCAA NIL case
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly cited the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston (2021) decision, claiming it held the NCAA violated antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, creating confusion about Supreme Court jurisprudence in sports law.
Kalshi's federal court win in Nevada raises hopes for Supreme Court review
Prior to the Maryland ruling, Kalshi had secured favorable decisions in Nevada and New Jersey, supporting federal preemption over state gambling laws for sports event contracts. This bolstered market optimism for Supreme Court certiorari, reflected in the initial 50% price.
Kalshi suffers loss in Maryland court, raising prospects for Supreme Court review
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Maryland federal court rejected Kalshi's bid to block state enforcement over unlicensed sports event contracts, creating a split with favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This split increased speculation that the Supreme Court might need to resolve the conflicting interpretations of federal and state regulatory authority over sports event contracts.
CFTC starts staff firings after Supreme Court clears way for mass government layoffs
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Reuters reported that the CFTC began firing staff after the Supreme Court cleared the way for mass government firings the prior week. The article linked the Court’s unnamed decision to a broader weakening of the regulator that oversees sports‑event contracts, prompting traders to slash the probability that the Court would grant a cert petition on that issue.
Supreme Court Distributes NBA v. Salazar Privacy Case for Long Conference
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court distributed the National Basketball Association v. Salazar case for its upcoming conference, highlighting active sports-related litigation moving through the docket.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission begins staff firings after Supreme Court ruling
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 16, 2025, the CFTC began staff firings following a Supreme Court decision that cleared the way for mass government firings. While not directly about sports event contracts, this event indicated regulatory uncertainty and turmoil at the CFTC, which oversees derivatives including sports event contracts, contributing to market skepticism.
US Appeals Court Rules for NCAA in Player Eligibility Dispute
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The US appeals court ruling reinforced the regulatory environment around sports contracts and eligibility, indirectly impacting perceptions of legal clarity in sports-related contracts. This contributed to initial market uncertainty and a drop in certiorari probability.
Federal courts remain split on CEA preemption of state gaming laws in sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Multiple federal district courts ruled differently on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, creating legal uncertainty and influencing market sentiment downward. This split suggested potential for Supreme Court review but no certiorari yet.
Market begins speculation on Supreme Court sports contract case certiorari
The market opened at 50% probability as traders speculated on the Supreme Court potentially granting certiorari in a sports event contract case, reflecting initial uncertainty and anticipation.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling found the CFTC had sufficiently shown that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of swaps, and that federal law likely preempts Arizona's gambling regulations. This decision directly addresses the legality and federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Legal Analysts Highlight Slim Odds of Supreme Court Granting Certiorari for Sports Event Contract Cases
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Legal commentary highlighted that even if sports event contract disputes (such as those involving whether sports performance qualifies as an excluded commodity or swap) reach the Supreme Court petition stage, the historical odds of SCOTUS granting certiorari are extremely slim (only 2-3%), causing the market price to drop sharply.
US District Courts split on regulation of sports event contracts under Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey issued preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, a derivatives exchange offering sports event contracts, ruling that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive jurisdiction over these contracts, preempting state gaming laws. This legal split raised the possibility of Supreme Court review, initially boosting market expectations for certiorari.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in National Basketball Association v. Salazar
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Court granted certiorari in a case challenging state bans on transgender female participation in female sports, a significant sports-related decision that boosted market confidence in a SCOTUS sports case.
No public indication of SCOTUS certiorari grant on sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
At the start of the analysis window, the market was at 50% but there was no official Supreme Court docket entry or credible legal reporting confirming certiorari on sports event contracts, leading to initial uncertainty and a sharp price drop.
Mixed Federal Court Rulings Create Uncertainty Over Sports Event Contract Regulation
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal courts issued conflicting decisions on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, with Kalshi winning preliminary injunctions in Nevada and New Jersey but losing in Maryland. This legal uncertainty caused market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari to decline sharply.
District courts remain split on Commodity Exchange Act preemption in sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
US district courts in New Jersey, Nevada, and Maryland issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts, creating legal uncertainty and reducing market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari by July 31.
Market reacts to uncertainty over sports event contract legal issues
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Early market activity reflected uncertainty about whether the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on sports event contract cases involving derivatives and federal preemption issues, with no clear signals from the Court or lower courts at this time.
Court of Appeal confirms binding contract in sports broadcasting dispute
The Court of Appeal upheld a ruling confirming a binding contract between DAZN and Coupang concerning FIFA Club World Cup 2025 broadcasting rights, highlighting legal clarity on sports contracts but not involving the Supreme Court. This event initially supported market optimism about sports contract litigation but did not directly affect SCOTUS certiorari.
Supreme Court clears way for mass federal layoffs, signaling conservative judicial approach
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to proceed with mass federal layoffs, reflecting a conservative majority willing to uphold executive power. While unrelated directly to sports contracts, this ruling influenced perceptions of the Court's docket and priorities during the analysis window, indirectly affecting market sentiment on other cases.
Federal courts split on whether Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts on federally regulated markets. This legal split raised the possibility of Supreme Court review, initially supporting market optimism for certiorari.
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Prior to the analysis window, courts in Nevada and New Jersey ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s exclusive jurisdiction, supporting federal preemption over state gaming laws. This initially supported a 50% market probability on July 16, 2025.
CFTC begins staff firings amid regulatory turmoil
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission started staff firings on July 16, 2025, reflecting internal agency disruptions that may have impacted regulatory clarity around event contracts, contributing to market uncertainty.
Kalshi announces surpassing $2 billion in sports trading volume
Kalshi's announcement of significant sports trading volume highlighted the growing importance of sports event contracts, increasing market attention on potential legal challenges and Supreme Court involvement.
Kalshi's Maryland loss signals potential Supreme Court review
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Judge Abelson's ruling against Kalshi in Maryland rejected the company's argument that federal law preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, setting the stage for possible Supreme Court review of the federal-state regulatory conflict. This decision introduced uncertainty about the case's trajectory, causing initial market price volatility.
CFTC begins staff firings following Supreme Court ruling
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission started layoffs after a Supreme Court decision cleared the way for mass government firings. This indicated regulatory uncertainty and potential shifts in enforcement related to sports event contracts, negatively impacting market confidence in a certiorari grant.
Judge Abelson's ruling on sports event contracts highlights unresolved legal issues
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Judge Abelson's decision did not resolve whether sports event contracts are regulated as swaps or excluded commodities, signaling that these issues may eventually require Supreme Court review. This uncertainty initially lowered market confidence in a cert grant.
Kalshi Appeals to Fourth Circuit After Nevada and New Jersey District Courts Rule in Favor of CFTC Jurisdiction
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Kalshi's appeal to the Fourth Circuit following district court rulings in Nevada and New Jersey that its sports event contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction created a split in lower courts, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi's motion for preliminary injunction
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The District of Maryland rejected Kalshi's argument that federal law preempts state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts, creating a split with favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This increased uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention, causing the market price to drop sharply.
Supreme Court prepares for significant sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court's 2025-26 term would include important sports-related cases, indicating heightened attention to sports law but no specific cert grant on sports event contracts yet. This initial anticipation set the market at 50%.
Kalshi Loss in Maryland Could Pave the Way for Supreme Court Review
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Maryland federal court rejected Kalshi’s bid to block state enforcement over unlicensed sports event contracts, creating a split with Nevada and New Jersey rulings and setting the stage for potential Supreme Court certiorari.
NCAA Persuades Appeals Court to Reject Order on Player Eligibility Distinctions
A U.S. appeals court ruled in favor of the NCAA, rejecting an order that could blur the line between student and professional athletes. This sports-related legal decision may have influenced market sentiment about potential Supreme Court involvement in collegiate sports cases.
Market opens at 50% amid ongoing federal court split on sports event contract regulation
At the start of the analysis window, the market reflected uncertainty with a 50% chance that SCOTUS would grant certiorari, influenced by conflicting district court rulings: Nevada and New Jersey courts favoring federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act, and Maryland court rejecting it.
Market starts at 50% amid anticipation of sports-related SCOTUS cases
At the start of the analysis window, the market priced a 50% chance that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on a sports event contract case by July 31, 2025, reflecting initial optimism based on the Court's known interest in sports law.
Speculation rises on potential Supreme Court sports contract case certiorari
Market opened at 50% probability amid speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case, reflecting uncertainty and anticipation in the legal community about the court's docket for the 2025-26 term.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi, citing federal preemption over state gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi's sports event contracts from New Jersey state gambling enforcement, affirming that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state laws in this context. This ruling initially supported the likelihood of federal jurisdiction and increased market optimism for Supreme Court review.
Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming regulators
In April 2025, federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act, enjoining state regulators from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi. These rulings supported Kalshi’s argument for federal preemption and boosted market confidence in a Supreme Court review.
Market begins sharp decline on doubts about Supreme Court certiorari on sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Starting July 16, 2025, the market price dropped sharply from 50% to 13% by July 19, reflecting growing skepticism that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on a sports event contract case by the July 31 deadline. No public docket or official confirmation had emerged, causing traders to reduce the probability.
CFTC Begins Staff Firings After Supreme Court Clearance
July 31 plunges to 10%40%
Reuters reported that the CFTC began a wave of staff firings after a recent Supreme Court decision that cleared the path for mass government terminations. The news raised doubts about regulatory stability for CFTC‑designated markets, nudging the market down to its lowest point of 10% the next day.
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