Recent polling averages place the SPD at 6–7% and the Greens at 4–5% in the September 6, 2026 Landtag election, giving the Social Democrats a consistent though narrow lead in second-vote intention. This gap has held steady through July and August surveys from INSA, Pollytix, and Infratest dimap, with both parties operating near the 5% threshold amid a fragmented field dominated by the AfD and CDU. Campaign activity has centered on turnout mobilization and coalition signaling rather than head-to-head clashes between the two smaller parties, leaving little momentum to close the margin. Traders therefore price SPD outperformance at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting the empirical polling edge and the short remaining campaign window.