The exceptionally close June primary, where Gentner Drummond edged Mike Mazzei by under one percentage point to force the August 25 Republican runoff, continues to anchor trader expectations of a narrow margin. Recent polling through early August shows the candidates essentially tied among likely voters, with one survey placing both at 44 percent. Mazzei's endorsements from former President Trump and term-limited Governor Kevin Stitt, paired with Drummond's institutional backing from law enforcement and agricultural groups, have mobilized overlapping bases without creating decisive separation. Heavy independent spending and a single debate have sharpened contrasts on taxes, education, and regulation, yet the limited remaining campaign window and similar voter profiles sustain uncertainty over turnout and late shifts. These factors align with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to single-digit or low double-digit victory margins for either contender.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDrummond 25%+ 44%
Drummond 5–10% 44%
Mazzei 5–10% 44%
Mazzei 10–15% 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
Drummond 25%+
44%
Drummond 20–25%
42%
Drummond 15–20%
42%
Drummond 10–15%
43%
Drummond 5–10%
44%
Drummond <5%
13%
Mazzei <5%
42%
Mazzei 5–10%
44%
Mazzei 10–15%
44%
Mazzei 15–20%
42%
Mazzei 20–25%
44%
Mazzei 25%+
42%
Drummond 25%+ 44%
Drummond 5–10% 44%
Mazzei 5–10% 44%
Mazzei 10–15% 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
Drummond 25%+
$35 Vol.
44%
Drummond 20–25%
$35 Vol.
42%
Drummond 15–20%
$35 Vol.
42%
Drummond 10–15%
$10 Vol.
43%
Drummond 5–10%
$0 Vol.
44%
Drummond <5%
$0 Vol.
13%
Mazzei <5%
$0 Vol.
42%
Mazzei 5–10%
$0 Vol.
44%
Mazzei 10–15%
$0 Vol.
44%
Mazzei 15–20%
$25 Vol.
42%
Mazzei 20–25%
$25 Vol.
44%
Mazzei 25%+
$25 Vol.
42%
Primary runoff elections in Oklahoma are scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The exceptionally close June primary, where Gentner Drummond edged Mike Mazzei by under one percentage point to force the August 25 Republican runoff, continues to anchor trader expectations of a narrow margin. Recent polling through early August shows the candidates essentially tied among likely voters, with one survey placing both at 44 percent. Mazzei's endorsements from former President Trump and term-limited Governor Kevin Stitt, paired with Drummond's institutional backing from law enforcement and agricultural groups, have mobilized overlapping bases without creating decisive separation. Heavy independent spending and a single debate have sharpened contrasts on taxes, education, and regulation, yet the limited remaining campaign window and similar voter profiles sustain uncertainty over turnout and late shifts. These factors align with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to single-digit or low double-digit victory margins for either contender.
Primary runoff elections in Oklahoma are scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:39 PM ET
Volume
$190End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary runoff elections in Oklahoma are scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The exceptionally close June primary, where Gentner Drummond edged Mike Mazzei by under one percentage point to force the August 25 Republican runoff, continues to anchor trader expectations of a narrow margin. Recent polling through early August shows the candidates essentially tied among likely voters, with one survey placing both at 44 percent. Mazzei's endorsements from former President Trump and term-limited Governor Kevin Stitt, paired with Drummond's institutional backing from law enforcement and agricultural groups, have mobilized overlapping bases without creating decisive separation. Heavy independent spending and a single debate have sharpened contrasts on taxes, education, and regulation, yet the limited remaining campaign window and similar voter profiles sustain uncertainty over turnout and late shifts. These factors align with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to single-digit or low double-digit victory margins for either contender.
Primary runoff elections in Oklahoma are scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$190End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The exceptionally close June primary, where Gentner Drummond edged Mike Mazzei by under one percentage point to force the August 25 Republican runoff, continues to anchor trader expectations of a narrow margin. Recent polling through early August shows the candidates essentially tied among likely voters, with one survey placing both at 44 percent. Mazzei's endorsements from former President Trump and term-limited Governor Kevin Stitt, paired with Drummond's institutional backing from law enforcement and agricultural groups, have mobilized overlapping bases without creating decisive separation. Heavy independent spending and a single debate have sharpened contrasts on taxes, education, and regulation, yet the limited remaining campaign window and similar voter profiles sustain uncertainty over turnout and late shifts. These factors align with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to single-digit or low double-digit victory margins for either contender.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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