Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks re-election in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic following Ryan's 2024 victory by more than seven points, with the Republican primary canceled and challenger Jacqueline Auringer advancing unopposed. Trader consensus at 91% for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's underlying partisan composition, Ryan's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major shifts since the June 2026 primaries. A national Republican surge, late-cycle economic or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain outside current polling and rating baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$34,909 Vol.
$34,909 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
$34,909 Vol.
$34,909 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,706 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$2,203 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks re-election in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic following Ryan's 2024 victory by more than seven points, with the Republican primary canceled and challenger Jacqueline Auringer advancing unopposed. Trader consensus at 91% for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's underlying partisan composition, Ryan's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major shifts since the June 2026 primaries. A national Republican surge, late-cycle economic or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain outside current polling and rating baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$34,909End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks re-election in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic following Ryan's 2024 victory by more than seven points, with the Republican primary canceled and challenger Jacqueline Auringer advancing unopposed. Trader consensus at 91% for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's underlying partisan composition, Ryan's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major shifts since the June 2026 primaries. A national Republican surge, late-cycle economic or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain outside current polling and rating baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,909End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks re-election in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic following Ryan's 2024 victory by more than seven points, with the Republican primary canceled and challenger Jacqueline Auringer advancing unopposed. Trader consensus at 91% for the Democratic nominee aligns with the district's underlying partisan composition, Ryan's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major shifts since the June 2026 primaries. A national Republican surge, late-cycle economic or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain outside current polling and rating baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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