NY-12, covering core Manhattan neighborhoods, has long favored Democratic candidates in House races due to its urban electorate and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. With incumbent Jerrold Nadler retiring, the June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher as the clear choice, while Republicans nominated Caroline Shinkle in an uncontested primary. Trader consensus reflects the district's structural lean, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising gaps that have historically suppressed opposition performance. A late scandal, health issue, or national wave shifting turnout could theoretically narrow margins, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established district trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,646 Vol.
$32,646 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$32,646 Vol.
$32,646 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,192 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$15,454 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12, covering core Manhattan neighborhoods, has long favored Democratic candidates in House races due to its urban electorate and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. With incumbent Jerrold Nadler retiring, the June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher as the clear choice, while Republicans nominated Caroline Shinkle in an uncontested primary. Trader consensus reflects the district's structural lean, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising gaps that have historically suppressed opposition performance. A late scandal, health issue, or national wave shifting turnout could theoretically narrow margins, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established district trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,646End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12, covering core Manhattan neighborhoods, has long favored Democratic candidates in House races due to its urban electorate and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. With incumbent Jerrold Nadler retiring, the June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher as the clear choice, while Republicans nominated Caroline Shinkle in an uncontested primary. Trader consensus reflects the district's structural lean, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising gaps that have historically suppressed opposition performance. A late scandal, health issue, or national wave shifting turnout could theoretically narrow margins, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established district trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,646End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-12, covering core Manhattan neighborhoods, has long favored Democratic candidates in House races due to its urban electorate and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. With incumbent Jerrold Nadler retiring, the June 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Micah Lasher as the clear choice, while Republicans nominated Caroline Shinkle in an uncontested primary. Trader consensus reflects the district's structural lean, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising gaps that have historically suppressed opposition performance. A late scandal, health issue, or national wave shifting turnout could theoretically narrow margins, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established district trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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