**Mark Carney’s Liberal majority government, secured through 2026 by-elections and floor-crossings after the April 2025 minority result, has removed immediate pressure for a snap election.** With a stable parliamentary position and polling leads persisting into mid-2026, the government faces no credible no-confidence risk or supply-and-confidence constraints that historically trigger early dissolution under the Canada Elections Act. The fixed-date election remains October 15, 2029, the third Monday in October of the fourth calendar year after 2025 polling day. Prime ministerial advice to the governor general for earlier dissolution remains possible but lacks catalysts, given current approval ratings near 52 percent and focus on productivity, trade diversification, and military spending amid ongoing U.S. tariff pressures. Recent federal by-elections set for August 31, 2026, in three ridings offer minor seat adjustments without altering majority status. No legislative deadlines, leadership contests, or opposition maneuvers have surfaced that would shift trader assessments of an early call. Market pricing therefore reflects the low probability of dissolution before late 2027 or 2028 absent unforeseen events such as a sudden loss of confidence or strategic timing around economic or international developments.