Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer secured his party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with roughly 81-87% of the vote against limited challengers, advancing to face Democrat Doug Chapin in the November 3 general election. The district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and holds solid or safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and the last Democratic victory dating to 1998. Emmer's substantial fundraising edge and institutional role further reinforce the positioning. Trader consensus in the market assigns the Republican outcome an 85% implied probability, consistent with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary or polling signals that would shift expectations ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-06 House Election Winner
MN-06 House Election Winner
$36,520 Vol.
$36,520 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
10%
$36,520 Vol.
$36,520 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,251 Vol.
85%
Democratic Party
$17,268 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer secured his party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with roughly 81-87% of the vote against limited challengers, advancing to face Democrat Doug Chapin in the November 3 general election. The district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and holds solid or safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and the last Democratic victory dating to 1998. Emmer's substantial fundraising edge and institutional role further reinforce the positioning. Trader consensus in the market assigns the Republican outcome an 85% implied probability, consistent with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary or polling signals that would shift expectations ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$36,520End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer secured his party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with roughly 81-87% of the vote against limited challengers, advancing to face Democrat Doug Chapin in the November 3 general election. The district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and holds solid or safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and the last Democratic victory dating to 1998. Emmer's substantial fundraising edge and institutional role further reinforce the positioning. Trader consensus in the market assigns the Republican outcome an 85% implied probability, consistent with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary or polling signals that would shift expectations ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,520End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer secured his party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with roughly 81-87% of the vote against limited challengers, advancing to face Democrat Doug Chapin in the November 3 general election. The district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and holds solid or safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and the last Democratic victory dating to 1998. Emmer's substantial fundraising edge and institutional role further reinforce the positioning. Trader consensus in the market assigns the Republican outcome an 85% implied probability, consistent with the district's structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary or polling signals that would shift expectations ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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