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icon for MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner

$38,543 Vol.

Polymarket

$38,543 Vol.

icon for Ilhan Omar

Ilhan Omar

$31,093 Vol.

100%

icon for Latonya Reeves

Latonya Reeves

$7,450 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District in the August 11 primary, capturing over 80 percent of the vote against challengers including Latonya Reeves, Julie Le, and others in a district that has consistently delivered strong support for progressive candidates. Her commanding position reflects established incumbency advantages, high name recognition, and consistent backing from key local Democratic constituencies in the Minneapolis-centered seat. Traders have priced in near-certainty of her victory based on the decisive margin and rapid results reporting. Late resolution risks remain minimal but could theoretically involve formal certification delays or unforeseen legal challenges to vote counts, though no such developments have surfaced in the days since the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,543
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District in the August 11 primary, capturing over 80 percent of the vote against challengers including Latonya Reeves, Julie Le, and others in a district that has consistently delivered strong support for progressive candidates. Her commanding position reflects established incumbency advantages, high name recognition, and consistent backing from key local Democratic constituencies in the Minneapolis-centered seat. Traders have priced in near-certainty of her victory based on the decisive margin and rapid results reporting. Late resolution risks remain minimal but could theoretically involve formal certification delays or unforeseen legal challenges to vote counts, though no such developments have surfaced in the days since the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,543
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ilhan Omar" at 100%, followed by "Latonya Reeves" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $38.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Ilhan Omar" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Latonya Reeves" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.