Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 by defeating Rep. Angie Craig and minor candidates with roughly 59% of the vote to Craig’s 39.5%, producing a margin near 19.5 points. Trader consensus around a 15–20% Flanagan victory reflects her status as the DFL-endorsed lieutenant governor, consolidated progressive support, and grassroots mobilization on issues including corporate influence and immigration enforcement, which outweighed Craig’s fundraising edge and suburban appeal. Pre-primary polling showed a competitive race that narrowed in Flanagan’s favor as ideological alignment within the primary electorate solidified. With final tallies already reported and a substantial gap confirmed, only an extraordinary recount, widespread tabulation error, or successful legal challenge could alter the certified margin enough to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlanagan 15–20% 97.9%
Flanagan 20%+ 2.0%
Craig 5–10% 1.7%
Craig <5% 1.6%
$47,729 Vol.
$47,729 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
2%
Flanagan 15–20%
98%
Flanagan 10–15%
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
1%
Flanagan <5%
2%
Craig <5%
2%
Craig 5–10%
2%
Craig 10–15%
<1%
Craig 15–20%
<1%
Craig 20%+
1%
Flanagan 15–20% 97.9%
Flanagan 20%+ 2.0%
Craig 5–10% 1.7%
Craig <5% 1.6%
$47,729 Vol.
$47,729 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
$1,541 Vol.
2%
Flanagan 15–20%
$17,353 Vol.
98%
Flanagan 10–15%
$9,838 Vol.
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
$4,635 Vol.
1%
Flanagan <5%
$9,182 Vol.
2%
Craig <5%
$1,394 Vol.
2%
Craig 5–10%
$2,152 Vol.
2%
Craig 10–15%
$663 Vol.
<1%
Craig 15–20%
$489 Vol.
<1%
Craig 20%+
$483 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 by defeating Rep. Angie Craig and minor candidates with roughly 59% of the vote to Craig’s 39.5%, producing a margin near 19.5 points. Trader consensus around a 15–20% Flanagan victory reflects her status as the DFL-endorsed lieutenant governor, consolidated progressive support, and grassroots mobilization on issues including corporate influence and immigration enforcement, which outweighed Craig’s fundraising edge and suburban appeal. Pre-primary polling showed a competitive race that narrowed in Flanagan’s favor as ideological alignment within the primary electorate solidified. With final tallies already reported and a substantial gap confirmed, only an extraordinary recount, widespread tabulation error, or successful legal challenge could alter the certified margin enough to shift the outcome.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$47,729End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 by defeating Rep. Angie Craig and minor candidates with roughly 59% of the vote to Craig’s 39.5%, producing a margin near 19.5 points. Trader consensus around a 15–20% Flanagan victory reflects her status as the DFL-endorsed lieutenant governor, consolidated progressive support, and grassroots mobilization on issues including corporate influence and immigration enforcement, which outweighed Craig’s fundraising edge and suburban appeal. Pre-primary polling showed a competitive race that narrowed in Flanagan’s favor as ideological alignment within the primary electorate solidified. With final tallies already reported and a substantial gap confirmed, only an extraordinary recount, widespread tabulation error, or successful legal challenge could alter the certified margin enough to shift the outcome.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$47,729End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 by defeating Rep. Angie Craig and minor candidates with roughly 59% of the vote to Craig’s 39.5%, producing a margin near 19.5 points. Trader consensus around a 15–20% Flanagan victory reflects her status as the DFL-endorsed lieutenant governor, consolidated progressive support, and grassroots mobilization on issues including corporate influence and immigration enforcement, which outweighed Craig’s fundraising edge and suburban appeal. Pre-primary polling showed a competitive race that narrowed in Flanagan’s favor as ideological alignment within the primary electorate solidified. With final tallies already reported and a substantial gap confirmed, only an extraordinary recount, widespread tabulation error, or successful legal challenge could alter the certified margin enough to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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