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icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?

icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?

$371,225 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$371,225 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$586 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Miguel Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s president following his 2023 reelection by the National Assembly for a second five-year term ending in 2028 under the 2019 constitutional framework. Trader sentiment on near-term removal reflects sustained U.S. sanctions, including measures against Díaz-Canel in 2025 and 2026, alongside reported Trump administration pressure during early 2026 energy talks for leadership change. Cuba has categorically rejected any negotiation over his position, and Díaz-Canel has publicly stated that stepping down is not an option. Ongoing economic strains from fuel shortages, power outages, and lost Venezuelan supplies have prompted limited reform announcements, yet the Communist Party structure and Raúl Castro’s lingering influence continue to anchor continuity. No scheduled votes or congresses before late 2026 appear positioned to alter the leadership.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$371,225
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Miguel Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s president following his 2023 reelection by the National Assembly for a second five-year term ending in 2028 under the 2019 constitutional framework. Trader sentiment on near-term removal reflects sustained U.S. sanctions, including measures against Díaz-Canel in 2025 and 2026, alongside reported Trump administration pressure during early 2026 energy talks for leadership change. Cuba has categorically rejected any negotiation over his position, and Díaz-Canel has publicly stated that stepping down is not an option. Ongoing economic strains from fuel shortages, power outages, and lost Venezuelan supplies have prompted limited reform announcements, yet the Communist Party structure and Raúl Castro’s lingering influence continue to anchor continuity. No scheduled votes or congresses before late 2026 appear positioned to alter the leadership.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$371,225
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 28%, followed by "June 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" has generated $371.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" is "December 31" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.