Maryland’s 4th congressional district, covering heavily Democratic Prince George’s County suburbs of Washington, D.C., has long favored Democratic candidates by wide margins, with the seat carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee George McDermott in the November general election. Ivey’s prior general-election victories exceeded 88 percent, reflecting consistent voter alignment in a district where Democratic performance in statewide races remains dominant. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling shifts. A realistic change in outcome would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal within the final months before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$46,270 Vol.
$46,270 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$46,270 Vol.
$46,270 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,850 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$25,421 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district, covering heavily Democratic Prince George’s County suburbs of Washington, D.C., has long favored Democratic candidates by wide margins, with the seat carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee George McDermott in the November general election. Ivey’s prior general-election victories exceeded 88 percent, reflecting consistent voter alignment in a district where Democratic performance in statewide races remains dominant. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling shifts. A realistic change in outcome would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal within the final months before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$46,270End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district, covering heavily Democratic Prince George’s County suburbs of Washington, D.C., has long favored Democratic candidates by wide margins, with the seat carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee George McDermott in the November general election. Ivey’s prior general-election victories exceeded 88 percent, reflecting consistent voter alignment in a district where Democratic performance in statewide races remains dominant. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling shifts. A realistic change in outcome would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal within the final months before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,270End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district, covering heavily Democratic Prince George’s County suburbs of Washington, D.C., has long favored Democratic candidates by wide margins, with the seat carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee George McDermott in the November general election. Ivey’s prior general-election victories exceeded 88 percent, reflecting consistent voter alignment in a district where Democratic performance in statewide races remains dominant. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling shifts. A realistic change in outcome would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major unforeseen development such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal within the final months before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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