**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests, upheld by successive administrations through the Stockpile Stewardship Program.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with rivals, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent analysis distinguished this from full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. NNSA maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for such tests, with no dedicated funding line since 2010 and annual lab assessments confirming no technical requirement to resume. Subcritical experiments and advanced simulations continue under zero-yield standards. Congressional oversight, FY2026 budget decisions, and any follow-on executive actions could influence preparations, while international signaling and domestic opposition shape the broader context for market probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$768,767 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
4%
$768,767 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$50,767 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests, upheld by successive administrations through the Stockpile Stewardship Program.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with rivals, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent analysis distinguished this from full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. NNSA maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for such tests, with no dedicated funding line since 2010 and annual lab assessments confirming no technical requirement to resume. Subcritical experiments and advanced simulations continue under zero-yield standards. Congressional oversight, FY2026 budget decisions, and any follow-on executive actions could influence preparations, while international signaling and domestic opposition shape the broader context for market probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$768,767End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests, upheld by successive administrations through the Stockpile Stewardship Program.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with rivals, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent analysis distinguished this from full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. NNSA maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for such tests, with no dedicated funding line since 2010 and annual lab assessments confirming no technical requirement to resume. Subcritical experiments and advanced simulations continue under zero-yield standards. Congressional oversight, FY2026 budget decisions, and any follow-on executive actions could influence preparations, while international signaling and domestic opposition shape the broader context for market probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$768,767End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests, upheld by successive administrations through the Stockpile Stewardship Program.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with rivals, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent analysis distinguished this from full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. NNSA maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for such tests, with no dedicated funding line since 2010 and annual lab assessments confirming no technical requirement to resume. Subcritical experiments and advanced simulations continue under zero-yield standards. Congressional oversight, FY2026 budget decisions, and any follow-on executive actions could influence preparations, while international signaling and domestic opposition shape the broader context for market probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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