Heightened security risks from renewed Houthi attacks and a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply reduced transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning the sub-180 outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability. Recent missile strikes, including the August 11 incident that killed crew members, have amplified rerouting incentives for shippers amid elevated insurance costs and threat warnings, sustaining volumes near 32 daily transits or roughly 220–260 weekly after an earlier 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. This environment favors the 180–199 bin at 23% over higher ranges, as ongoing instability from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Houthi intent to disrupt Saudi oil flows continues to suppress activity below historical baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 47%
180-199 23%
220+ 15%
200-219 9.9%
$10,759 Vol.
$10,759 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
47%
180-199
23%
200-219
7%
220+
15%
<180 47%
180-199 23%
220+ 15%
200-219 9.9%
$10,759 Vol.
$10,759 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$5,140 Vol.
47%
180-199
$1,839 Vol.
23%
200-219
$749 Vol.
7%
220+
$3,031 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened security risks from renewed Houthi attacks and a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply reduced transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning the sub-180 outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability. Recent missile strikes, including the August 11 incident that killed crew members, have amplified rerouting incentives for shippers amid elevated insurance costs and threat warnings, sustaining volumes near 32 daily transits or roughly 220–260 weekly after an earlier 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. This environment favors the 180–199 bin at 23% over higher ranges, as ongoing instability from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Houthi intent to disrupt Saudi oil flows continues to suppress activity below historical baselines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$10,759End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened security risks from renewed Houthi attacks and a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply reduced transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning the sub-180 outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability. Recent missile strikes, including the August 11 incident that killed crew members, have amplified rerouting incentives for shippers amid elevated insurance costs and threat warnings, sustaining volumes near 32 daily transits or roughly 220–260 weekly after an earlier 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. This environment favors the 180–199 bin at 23% over higher ranges, as ongoing instability from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Houthi intent to disrupt Saudi oil flows continues to suppress activity below historical baselines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$10,759End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heightened security risks from renewed Houthi attacks and a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply reduced transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning the sub-180 outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability. Recent missile strikes, including the August 11 incident that killed crew members, have amplified rerouting incentives for shippers amid elevated insurance costs and threat warnings, sustaining volumes near 32 daily transits or roughly 220–260 weekly after an earlier 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. This environment favors the 180–199 bin at 23% over higher ranges, as ongoing instability from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Houthi intent to disrupt Saudi oil flows continues to suppress activity below historical baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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