**Ongoing Houthi threats and a renewed maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning lower weekly volumes as the market consensus.** Since the Houthis announced the blockade around July 20, 2026, daily traffic has fallen 34–50% from prior levels, with averages dropping to roughly 31–32 ships per day in late July and early August according to Kpler and Clarksons data. This follows an initial plunge from 354 transits in the week before the action to 269–266 in subsequent weeks, driven by tanker rerouting and avoidance of the Red Sea corridor amid elevated risks. A lethal missile strike on a cargo vessel in the strait around August 11 further reinforced caution, killing crew and highlighting persistent security vulnerabilities despite earlier ceasefires. These developments have shifted trader sentiment toward the <180 and 180–199 buckets (combined ~85.5% implied probability), reflecting sustained suppression of volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. Broader factors include elevated war-risk insurance premiums, naval interventions redirecting vessels, and shipowners favoring the longer Cape of Good Hope route to avoid the chokepoint. While some stabilization has occurred, proximity to resolution for the August 10 week and any fresh incidents keep higher ranges (200+) at low single-digit odds. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these probability-weighted outcomes amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 47%
180-199 32%
220+ 15%
200-219 4.5%
$10,719 Vol.
$10,719 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
47%
180-199
32%
200-219
4%
220+
15%
<180 47%
180-199 32%
220+ 15%
200-219 4.5%
$10,719 Vol.
$10,719 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$5,130 Vol.
47%
180-199
$1,829 Vol.
32%
200-219
$739 Vol.
4%
220+
$3,021 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and a renewed maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning lower weekly volumes as the market consensus.**
Since the Houthis announced the blockade around July 20, 2026, daily traffic has fallen 34–50% from prior levels, with averages dropping to roughly 31–32 ships per day in late July and early August according to Kpler and Clarksons data. This follows an initial plunge from 354 transits in the week before the action to 269–266 in subsequent weeks, driven by tanker rerouting and avoidance of the Red Sea corridor amid elevated risks. A lethal missile strike on a cargo vessel in the strait around August 11 further reinforced caution, killing crew and highlighting persistent security vulnerabilities despite earlier ceasefires.
These developments have shifted trader sentiment toward the <180 and 180–199 buckets (combined ~85.5% implied probability), reflecting sustained suppression of volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. Broader factors include elevated war-risk insurance premiums, naval interventions redirecting vessels, and shipowners favoring the longer Cape of Good Hope route to avoid the chokepoint. While some stabilization has occurred, proximity to resolution for the August 10 week and any fresh incidents keep higher ranges (200+) at low single-digit odds. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these probability-weighted outcomes amid geopolitical uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$10,719End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and a renewed maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning lower weekly volumes as the market consensus.**
Since the Houthis announced the blockade around July 20, 2026, daily traffic has fallen 34–50% from prior levels, with averages dropping to roughly 31–32 ships per day in late July and early August according to Kpler and Clarksons data. This follows an initial plunge from 354 transits in the week before the action to 269–266 in subsequent weeks, driven by tanker rerouting and avoidance of the Red Sea corridor amid elevated risks. A lethal missile strike on a cargo vessel in the strait around August 11 further reinforced caution, killing crew and highlighting persistent security vulnerabilities despite earlier ceasefires.
These developments have shifted trader sentiment toward the <180 and 180–199 buckets (combined ~85.5% implied probability), reflecting sustained suppression of volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. Broader factors include elevated war-risk insurance premiums, naval interventions redirecting vessels, and shipowners favoring the longer Cape of Good Hope route to avoid the chokepoint. While some stabilization has occurred, proximity to resolution for the August 10 week and any fresh incidents keep higher ranges (200+) at low single-digit odds. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these probability-weighted outcomes amid geopolitical uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$10,719End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi threats and a renewed maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply curtailed vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, positioning lower weekly volumes as the market consensus.** Since the Houthis announced the blockade around July 20, 2026, daily traffic has fallen 34–50% from prior levels, with averages dropping to roughly 31–32 ships per day in late July and early August according to Kpler and Clarksons data. This follows an initial plunge from 354 transits in the week before the action to 269–266 in subsequent weeks, driven by tanker rerouting and avoidance of the Red Sea corridor amid elevated risks. A lethal missile strike on a cargo vessel in the strait around August 11 further reinforced caution, killing crew and highlighting persistent security vulnerabilities despite earlier ceasefires. These developments have shifted trader sentiment toward the <180 and 180–199 buckets (combined ~85.5% implied probability), reflecting sustained suppression of volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. Broader factors include elevated war-risk insurance premiums, naval interventions redirecting vessels, and shipowners favoring the longer Cape of Good Hope route to avoid the chokepoint. While some stabilization has occurred, proximity to resolution for the August 10 week and any fresh incidents keep higher ranges (200+) at low single-digit odds. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these probability-weighted outcomes amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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