High cabinet turnover has defined the second Trump administration, with multiple Senate-confirmed departures including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard through spring 2026, alongside broader exits of 27 department officials tracked by mid-year reports. Traders price a single additional departure as the modal outcome at 32 percent amid recent confirmations of replacements such as Todd Blanche and Jay Clayton, yet the spread across two-to-five further exits reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing implementation pressures, agency leadership dynamics, or external events through the November midterms and year-end will sustain or moderate the pace. Historical patterns of elevated second-term churn and the administration’s emphasis on rapid personnel alignment continue to shape the distribution without clear consolidation around any single count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 28%
2 20.5%
5 16.4%
3 15%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
3%
1
32%
2
20%
3
15%
4
21%
5
16%
6
10%
7+
13%
1 28%
2 20.5%
5 16.4%
3 15%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
$4,932 Vol.
3%
1
$589 Vol.
32%
2
$425 Vol.
20%
3
$261 Vol.
15%
4
$321 Vol.
21%
5
$358 Vol.
16%
6
$388 Vol.
10%
7+
$1,781 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.High cabinet turnover has defined the second Trump administration, with multiple Senate-confirmed departures including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard through spring 2026, alongside broader exits of 27 department officials tracked by mid-year reports. Traders price a single additional departure as the modal outcome at 32 percent amid recent confirmations of replacements such as Todd Blanche and Jay Clayton, yet the spread across two-to-five further exits reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing implementation pressures, agency leadership dynamics, or external events through the November midterms and year-end will sustain or moderate the pace. Historical patterns of elevated second-term churn and the administration’s emphasis on rapid personnel alignment continue to shape the distribution without clear consolidation around any single count.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,055End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.High cabinet turnover has defined the second Trump administration, with multiple Senate-confirmed departures including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard through spring 2026, alongside broader exits of 27 department officials tracked by mid-year reports. Traders price a single additional departure as the modal outcome at 32 percent amid recent confirmations of replacements such as Todd Blanche and Jay Clayton, yet the spread across two-to-five further exits reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing implementation pressures, agency leadership dynamics, or external events through the November midterms and year-end will sustain or moderate the pace. Historical patterns of elevated second-term churn and the administration’s emphasis on rapid personnel alignment continue to shape the distribution without clear consolidation around any single count.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Volume
$9,055End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High cabinet turnover has defined the second Trump administration, with multiple Senate-confirmed departures including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations by Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Tulsi Gabbard through spring 2026, alongside broader exits of 27 department officials tracked by mid-year reports. Traders price a single additional departure as the modal outcome at 32 percent amid recent confirmations of replacements such as Todd Blanche and Jay Clayton, yet the spread across two-to-five further exits reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing implementation pressures, agency leadership dynamics, or external events through the November midterms and year-end will sustain or moderate the pace. Historical patterns of elevated second-term churn and the administration’s emphasis on rapid personnel alignment continue to shape the distribution without clear consolidation around any single count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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