Ongoing US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 center on navigation and asserted sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran launching attacks on noncompliant vessels and the United States responding with a naval blockade and targeted strikes on coastal defenses, missile sites, and related infrastructure on islands including Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg. Ceasefire agreements in April and a June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions before collapsing amid renewed Iranian attacks and US enforcement actions through July and early August. As of August 13, Iranian officials publicly claimed full management of the strait while US statements asserted the opposite, with no verified shifts in territorial control of Hormuz Island itself. Trader assessments reflect the absence of occupation or regime-change scenarios capable of altering island sovereignty amid continued Iranian assertions and military presence. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming weeks could influence perceptions of leverage over the waterway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$61,395 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$61,395 Vol.
August 31
$49,658 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 center on navigation and asserted sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran launching attacks on noncompliant vessels and the United States responding with a naval blockade and targeted strikes on coastal defenses, missile sites, and related infrastructure on islands including Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg. Ceasefire agreements in April and a June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions before collapsing amid renewed Iranian attacks and US enforcement actions through July and early August. As of August 13, Iranian officials publicly claimed full management of the strait while US statements asserted the opposite, with no verified shifts in territorial control of Hormuz Island itself. Trader assessments reflect the absence of occupation or regime-change scenarios capable of altering island sovereignty amid continued Iranian assertions and military presence. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming weeks could influence perceptions of leverage over the waterway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$61,395End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 center on navigation and asserted sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran launching attacks on noncompliant vessels and the United States responding with a naval blockade and targeted strikes on coastal defenses, missile sites, and related infrastructure on islands including Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg. Ceasefire agreements in April and a June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions before collapsing amid renewed Iranian attacks and US enforcement actions through July and early August. As of August 13, Iranian officials publicly claimed full management of the strait while US statements asserted the opposite, with no verified shifts in territorial control of Hormuz Island itself. Trader assessments reflect the absence of occupation or regime-change scenarios capable of altering island sovereignty amid continued Iranian assertions and military presence. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming weeks could influence perceptions of leverage over the waterway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,395End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 center on navigation and asserted sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran launching attacks on noncompliant vessels and the United States responding with a naval blockade and targeted strikes on coastal defenses, missile sites, and related infrastructure on islands including Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg. Ceasefire agreements in April and a June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions before collapsing amid renewed Iranian attacks and US enforcement actions through July and early August. As of August 13, Iranian officials publicly claimed full management of the strait while US statements asserted the opposite, with no verified shifts in territorial control of Hormuz Island itself. Trader assessments reflect the absence of occupation or regime-change scenarios capable of altering island sovereignty amid continued Iranian assertions and military presence. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming weeks could influence perceptions of leverage over the waterway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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