US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory, using it to position military assets alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels, with backing from GCC statements, the Arab League, and EU-GCC communiqués calling for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ. No verified reports indicate a shift in on-ground administration or occupation following the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential seizure scenarios amid the conflict. Resolution of the market hinges on whether effective Iranian control ends before the specified cutoff, with any further military developments in the Hormuz area serving as the primary near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$50,409 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$50,409 Vol.
August 31
$27,900 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory, using it to position military assets alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels, with backing from GCC statements, the Arab League, and EU-GCC communiqués calling for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ. No verified reports indicate a shift in on-ground administration or occupation following the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential seizure scenarios amid the conflict. Resolution of the market hinges on whether effective Iranian control ends before the specified cutoff, with any further military developments in the Hormuz area serving as the primary near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$50,409End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory, using it to position military assets alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels, with backing from GCC statements, the Arab League, and EU-GCC communiqués calling for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ. No verified reports indicate a shift in on-ground administration or occupation following the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential seizure scenarios amid the conflict. Resolution of the market hinges on whether effective Iranian control ends before the specified cutoff, with any further military developments in the Hormuz area serving as the primary near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$50,409End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory, using it to position military assets alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels, with backing from GCC statements, the Arab League, and EU-GCC communiqués calling for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ. No verified reports indicate a shift in on-ground administration or occupation following the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential seizure scenarios amid the conflict. Resolution of the market hinges on whether effective Iranian control ends before the specified cutoff, with any further military developments in the Hormuz area serving as the primary near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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