OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol has already reached 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark spanning advanced math, science, and specialized domains, placing the model just below leading Claude variants at 54–55%. Trader consensus heavily favors the 50%+ outcome at 93% implied probability because frontier labs continue to post double-digit gains every few months through scaled training, adaptive reasoning techniques, and iterative releases. OpenAI’s substantial compute resources and rapid GPT-5.x cadence give it a clear path to close the small gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s edge in recent evals and any unexpected delays in OpenAI’s next major update remain the primary swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,925 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol has already reached 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark spanning advanced math, science, and specialized domains, placing the model just below leading Claude variants at 54–55%. Trader consensus heavily favors the 50%+ outcome at 93% implied probability because frontier labs continue to post double-digit gains every few months through scaled training, adaptive reasoning techniques, and iterative releases. OpenAI’s substantial compute resources and rapid GPT-5.x cadence give it a clear path to close the small gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s edge in recent evals and any unexpected delays in OpenAI’s next major update remain the primary swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$28,925End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol has already reached 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark spanning advanced math, science, and specialized domains, placing the model just below leading Claude variants at 54–55%. Trader consensus heavily favors the 50%+ outcome at 93% implied probability because frontier labs continue to post double-digit gains every few months through scaled training, adaptive reasoning techniques, and iterative releases. OpenAI’s substantial compute resources and rapid GPT-5.x cadence give it a clear path to close the small gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s edge in recent evals and any unexpected delays in OpenAI’s next major update remain the primary swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$28,925End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol has already reached 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark spanning advanced math, science, and specialized domains, placing the model just below leading Claude variants at 54–55%. Trader consensus heavily favors the 50%+ outcome at 93% implied probability because frontier labs continue to post double-digit gains every few months through scaled training, adaptive reasoning techniques, and iterative releases. OpenAI’s substantial compute resources and rapid GPT-5.x cadence give it a clear path to close the small gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s edge in recent evals and any unexpected delays in OpenAI’s next major update remain the primary swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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