Anthropic’s rapid release of its Claude 5 series, including Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drives current trader focus on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, physics, biology, and other fields. As of mid-August 2026, these models lead multiple leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% respectively, using tools like web search and code execution, while newer entries such as Claude Fable 5 top other evaluations near 55%. The tight clustering of top results signals benchmark saturation, with performance gains tied to scaling, adaptive reasoning, and reduced overfitting on public questions. Key catalysts ahead include additional Claude updates or major capability jumps before year-end that could reorder the leaderboard.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$53,813 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
71%
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15%
70%+
8%
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$53,813 Vol.
55%+
$11,467 Vol.
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$22,255 Vol.
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$16,592 Vol.
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$2,495 Vol.
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$1,004 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid release of its Claude 5 series, including Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drives current trader focus on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, physics, biology, and other fields. As of mid-August 2026, these models lead multiple leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% respectively, using tools like web search and code execution, while newer entries such as Claude Fable 5 top other evaluations near 55%. The tight clustering of top results signals benchmark saturation, with performance gains tied to scaling, adaptive reasoning, and reduced overfitting on public questions. Key catalysts ahead include additional Claude updates or major capability jumps before year-end that could reorder the leaderboard.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$53,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid release of its Claude 5 series, including Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drives current trader focus on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, physics, biology, and other fields. As of mid-August 2026, these models lead multiple leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% respectively, using tools like web search and code execution, while newer entries such as Claude Fable 5 top other evaluations near 55%. The tight clustering of top results signals benchmark saturation, with performance gains tied to scaling, adaptive reasoning, and reduced overfitting on public questions. Key catalysts ahead include additional Claude updates or major capability jumps before year-end that could reorder the leaderboard.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$53,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid release of its Claude 5 series, including Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drives current trader focus on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, physics, biology, and other fields. As of mid-August 2026, these models lead multiple leaderboards with scores of 64.7% and 64.5% respectively, using tools like web search and code execution, while newer entries such as Claude Fable 5 top other evaluations near 55%. The tight clustering of top results signals benchmark saturation, with performance gains tied to scaling, adaptive reasoning, and reduced overfitting on public questions. Key catalysts ahead include additional Claude updates or major capability jumps before year-end that could reorder the leaderboard.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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