Recent US airstrikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites and defenses on Greater Tunb amid broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto military administration and control since seizing it along with Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb in 1971, while the UAE continues to assert historical sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including GCC and Arab League statements. No ground operations or transfers of authority have followed the strikes, and Iranian forces remain positioned there. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term shifts, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would end Tehran's operational presence before key resolution dates. Ongoing regional tensions and potential further military or diplomatic actions remain the main variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$50,409 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$50,409 Vol.
August 31
$27,900 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US airstrikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites and defenses on Greater Tunb amid broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto military administration and control since seizing it along with Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb in 1971, while the UAE continues to assert historical sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including GCC and Arab League statements. No ground operations or transfers of authority have followed the strikes, and Iranian forces remain positioned there. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term shifts, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would end Tehran's operational presence before key resolution dates. Ongoing regional tensions and potential further military or diplomatic actions remain the main variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$50,409End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US airstrikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites and defenses on Greater Tunb amid broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto military administration and control since seizing it along with Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb in 1971, while the UAE continues to assert historical sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including GCC and Arab League statements. No ground operations or transfers of authority have followed the strikes, and Iranian forces remain positioned there. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term shifts, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would end Tehran's operational presence before key resolution dates. Ongoing regional tensions and potential further military or diplomatic actions remain the main variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$50,409End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US airstrikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites and defenses on Greater Tunb amid broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto military administration and control since seizing it along with Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb in 1971, while the UAE continues to assert historical sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including GCC and Arab League statements. No ground operations or transfers of authority have followed the strikes, and Iranian forces remain positioned there. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term shifts, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would end Tehran's operational presence before key resolution dates. Ongoing regional tensions and potential further military or diplomatic actions remain the main variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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